The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[StateBoiler]

Say what you want about Hogan, he knows who he is and he knows how he's going to campaign. The people that vote for Hogan is a very defined wing of the party that likely will have little other options. Contrast that to the 25 or so Republican wannabe candidates that will pander to Trump voters.

[StateBoiler]

Trump says he’s confident of winning the nomination if he runs:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/03/trump-desantis-2024-beat-him-514975

In an interview with Yahoo Finance set to be published Monday, Trump said he believed that “most people would drop out” if he entered the race, including DeSantis, an ally of the former president who has been considered a potential candidate in the Republican presidential primary.

“If I faced him, I'd beat him like I would beat everyone else,” Trump said.
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In the interview, Trump expressed confidence in his ability to easily clinch the nomination should he run, citing his support among the Republican base, but said he was not yet ready to commit to doing so.

“If I do run, I think that I’ll do extremely well,” he said, adding that he based his predictions on both polling and “enthusiasm” from voters.

I mean, his take is probably not untrue...

I don't expect Trump to say will he or won't he until he starts hitting primary ballot access deadlines, which is when, Q4 2023? This is going to paralyze everyone else as far as fundraising unless you're a Larry Hogan that would run anyway.

[StateBoiler]

Trump says he’s confident of winning the nomination if he runs:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/03/trump-desantis-2024-beat-him-514975

In an interview with Yahoo Finance set to be published Monday, Trump said he believed that “most people would drop out” if he entered the race, including DeSantis, an ally of the former president who has been considered a potential candidate in the Republican presidential primary.

“If I faced him, I'd beat him like I would beat everyone else,” Trump said.
.
.
.
In the interview, Trump expressed confidence in his ability to easily clinch the nomination should he run, citing his support among the Republican base, but said he was not yet ready to commit to doing so.

“If I do run, I think that I’ll do extremely well,” he said, adding that he based his predictions on both polling and “enthusiasm” from voters.

I mean, his take is probably not untrue...

I don't expect Trump to say will he or won't he until he starts hitting primary ballot access deadlines, which is when, Q4 2023? This is going to paralyze everyone else as far as fundraising unless you're a Larry Hogan that would run anyway.

If I were Biden, I'd be thrilled by this.  

Problem is he's going to hamstring the Democratic nomination race as well because due to his age as well as how he got the 2020 nomination to start with there's a more natural will he or won't he? I'm not saying certain either way what he's doing in 2024, but I think it's definitely closer to 50/50 than it is 100/0 or 0/100. If he's not going to run it's going to be a "late" decision, late being probably Q3 or Q4 2023. There's also political calculus here. If you're Kamala Harris and you want to run for president, you would rather Joe Biden announce this later rather than earlier becaues it does not allow any formidable challengers from the rest of the Democratic Party to build up resources. Whether Biden if he decides not to run chooses to go along with that, who knows. Likely depends on how chummy the president/VP relationship is post-midterms.

[StateBoiler]

Punchbowl News' poll of senior Capitol Hill aides from both parties

Democratic staffers' most likely 2024 nominee if Biden does not run for reelection:

Kamala Harris 58% (down 22% from last survey)
Pete Buttigieg 14%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Other 17%

Republican staffers on their most likely 2024 nominee:

Ron DeSantis 45% (down 17% from last survey)
Donald Trump 33%
Nikki Haley 3%
Tom Cotton 2%
Ted Cruz 2%
Mike Pence 2%
Mike Pompeo 2%

[StateBoiler]

It is curious that Trump's former top advisor thinks he doesn't want a rematch against President Biden.  Perhaps because it is harder to run against Biden when he is the incumbent:

Trump Will 'Ultimately' Run in 2024 but Not Against Biden, Former Adviser Predicts

That frankly sounds like trying to influence what the other party does to benefit yourself.

[StateBoiler]

Punchbowl News' poll of senior Capitol Hill aides from both parties

Democratic staffers' most likely 2024 nominee if Biden does not run for reelection:

Kamala Harris 58% (down 22% from last survey)
Pete Buttigieg 14%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Other 17%

Republican staffers on their most likely 2024 nominee:

Ron DeSantis 45% (down 17% from last survey)
Donald Trump 33%
Nikki Haley 3%
Tom Cotton 2%
Ted Cruz 2%
Mike Pence 2%
Mike Pompeo 2%

Trump is not going to like that.

I think it's more a "will he run or will he not run" instead of a "DeSantis beats Trump in a primary" scenario.

[StateBoiler]

Politico with a story today saying that even if Biden says he'll run for another term, a lot of Democratic bigshots are acting like he won't, and Democrats say Harris will not clear the field either if she's the chosen heir.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/14/biden-successor-2024-kamala-harris-522160

[StateBoiler]

Christie also slammed those who are basing their decision on whether to run in ’24 around whether Trump also runs or not:

https://news.yahoo.com/christie-republicans-waiting-trump-2024-231230977.html

"Those people who say that they will defer to Donald Trump have disqualified themselves from being president," Christie told me during a wide-ranging interview in New Jersey. "Because if you're not willing to stand up to someone, ... how can you ... be standing up for everyone when you're president?"

So to analogize:

-Donald Trump is Lyndon Johnson
-Chris Christie is Eugene McCarthy
-"Everyone else" is Robert Kennedy

"Chris Christie 2024" is to me "Rick Santorum 2016" as far as serious chance of success. Yet, if Trump does run, Christie's staked himself on a pole of "I'm running regardless".

I do find what's going to happen in a contested Republican primary if Trump is present interesting. If you're Trump, there's no reason to participate in debates unless and until one candidate looks like he or she will threaten him, at which point you agree to a one-on-one debate on your terms. That said, if 5 or so Republicans that are Chris Christie-level are running for president against Trump and Trump said he won't participate in debates, are televised debates on the GOP side even a thing? Primary debates are ran by the TV networks, not the party, and do they have any interest in broadcasting a Republican debate without Trump? Remove Trump and do they think they would get ratings which is their ultimate goal?

The RNC rules discussion likewise will be interesting. They broke down the wall bigtime in the runup to 2020 showing obvious preference to the incumbent president. They don't have the incumbent excuse this coming time.

[StateBoiler]

I think the media is salivating over the possibility of a Trump vs Christie debate.

There's literally no upside for Trump to do it.