The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Ferguson97]

Trump will run in 2024 if he loses in November.

[Ferguson97]

GOP (if Trump loses): Pence, Haley, DeSantis, Cruz, Rubio

GOP (if Trump wins): Possibly Pence without any serious challengers

Dems (if Biden wins): Biden's VP; challenged by Jeff Merkley or AOC

Dems (if Biden loses): Cuomo, Newsom, Whitmer, Abrams, AOC, Beshar, De Blasio, Jeff Merkley, Joe Kenendy III, Harris, Buttigieg, Yang

[Ferguson97]

Various GOP politicos seem to think Tucker Carlson might run in 2024, but this article doesn't really summon any evidence that Carlson himself is interested:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334

“Let me put it this way: If Biden wins and Tucker decided to run, he’d be the nominee,” said Sam Nunberg, a former top political aide to Trump who knows Carlson. But Nunberg said he doesn’t believe Carlson will run because “he’s so disgusted with politicians.”

Sixteen prominent Republicans interviewed by POLITICO said there’s an emerging consensus in the GOP that the 51-year-old Carlson would be formidable if he were to run. Some strategists aligned with other potential candidates are convinced he will enter the race and detect the outlines of a stump speech in Carlson’s recent Fox monologues. Others, particularly those who know him well, are skeptical that he would leave his prime-time TV gig.

Carlson and Fox News declined to comment.
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Carlson has never run for office and has been dismissive of doing so in the past. In 2012, Nunberg said Republican operative Roger Stone unsuccessfully pushed Carlson to run on the Libertarian ticket. Stone told POLITICO in an email that “t is not inconceivable that I may have raised it in jest or in passing as repartee, but have no memory of that.”

Tucker Carlson running in 2024 is about as likely as Stephen Colbert running a serious campaign for President in 2024.

Or Donald Trump! Oh, wait...

[Ferguson97]

GOP is going to double down on Trumpism. QAnon is the future of the Republican Party.

The idea that someone like Nikki Haley or Larry Hogan could win a primary is insane.

Tom Cotton is the most "moderate" candidate that could win.

Leading contenders will be people like Trump Junior or Tucker Carlson.

[Ferguson97]

GOP is going to double down on Trumpism. QAnon is the future of the Republican Party.

The idea that someone like Nikki Haley or Larry Hogan could win a primary is insane.

Tom Cotton is the most "moderate" candidate that could win.

Leading contenders will be people like Trump Junior or Tucker Carlson.

I wouldn’t say Cotton is anymore moderate than those two. Unlike many Trumpists, who care above all about owning the libs, Cotton seems to have a sincere, deep-held and much more intellectual belief in authoritarianism.

That's why moderate was in quotes 😛

[Ferguson97]

If Trump wins, there will be a 2024 election in name only - Mike Pence, Trump Junior, or maybe Trump himself, would "run".

[Ferguson97]

Nina Turner says she's "thinking about" 2024.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqH4XWy3Nko

She's a clown and would get 0% in Iowa and New Hampshire combined.

[Ferguson97]

If Biden wins I predict 2 of the Dems to challenge harris in the primary will be Nina Turner and Tulsi Gabbard

Harris would win with 90+% of the vote.

[Ferguson97]

I dont think they would be the only Dems to challenge Harris. Harris would probably have one semi serious Challenger from the Left and one from the right. Max Rose could be the one on the right but I doubt hes dumb enough to think he has a chance in national primary at the moment but if Harris is unpopular a semi serious challenge could amount akin to Sanders 2016 but this all of course depends on how the Biden administration goes.

Moderates tend to be more establishment so I'm not convinced Harris would get a serious challenge from the right as a pseudo-incumbent

[Ferguson97]

I dont think they would be the only Dems to challenge Harris. Harris would probably have one semi serious Challenger from the Left and one from the right. Max Rose could be the one on the right but I doubt hes dumb enough to think he has a chance in national primary at the moment but if Harris is unpopular a semi serious challenge could amount akin to Sanders 2016 but this all of course depends on how the Biden administration goes.

John Bel Edwards maybe?

Democath John Bel Edwards would be extremely interesting but it won't happen because muh anti-choice.

"Lol who cares about abortion rights?"

[Ferguson97]

Noem would be a decent GE candidate but she won’t ever win a primary

[Ferguson97]

It’s questionable how much this actually has to do with 2024, since Iowa is still a (sort of) swing state, but should note that Pence did a campaign event in Iowa last week:

https://www.ketv.com/article/iowa-democrats-protest-vice-president-rally-supporters-praise-president-trump/34241916

This is also only questionably about 2024 (and I’m still skeptical that Don Jr. will run, but Don Jr. is doing a big campaign tour that’ll include the early caucus states of Iowa and Nevada:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1314745057908580352

Except for Illinois, these are all swing states.

Let's see what happens after November, but all of these stops have plausible deniability since he's campaigning for his dad.

[Ferguson97]

Hogan is way too liberal for the GOP and would be lucky to get 1% of the vote in Iowa.

His anti-Trump stances are going to be a non-starter for GOP primary voters.

[Ferguson97]

A presidential run is “not anything that we’ve really spent a lot of time on”?  So is that a de facto admission that she’s spent *some* time thinking about it?

Every single politician has spent *some* time thinking about it.

[Ferguson97]

Noem was just in NH a couple of weeks ago, and she'll be back on Wednesday:

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1320861162167246849

Pence's running mate

[Ferguson97]

I'm leaning more towards the idea that Trump won't run.

[Ferguson97]

Trump on whether he’d pick Pence as his running mate again:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-declines-commit-running-pence-024320232.html

"Mike and I have a good relationship, we continue to have a good but it's too early to be discussing running mates certainly," said the former president in an exclusive televised pre-speech interview.

As for whether Trump will in fact run again:

"I'll make a decision in the not too distant future, maybe sooner than people think. And I think they're going to be very happy," said Trump on Saturday evening.

So, Trump's running. I assume he'll pick Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate, as she'd check pretty much every box both Trump and the National GOP would want (woman, fanatically loyal to Trump).

Most likely imho is either Josh Hawley or he changes his registration back to NY or Bedminister, NJ to be able to pick DeSantis. Just like Cheney changed his residence back to WY in 2000. If Trump wants a female VP, is's either Haley or Blackburn.

I still think Mr. Trump won't be able to actually run as tons of legal issues are over his head like a black cloud.

DeSantis won't accept. Being a member of Trump's administration is the kiss of death for a Republican politician's career.

I don't understand this argument. How can it be a kiss of death for his career when Trump is extremely popular among Republicans, and it would give him an opportunity to be a heartbeat away from being the most powerful man on the planet? Trump is old and unhealthy... DeSantis or anyone else would be a fool to reject a VP offer.

[Ferguson97]

Trump on whether he’d pick Pence as his running mate again:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-declines-commit-running-pence-024320232.html

"Mike and I have a good relationship, we continue to have a good but it's too early to be discussing running mates certainly," said the former president in an exclusive televised pre-speech interview.

As for whether Trump will in fact run again:

"I'll make a decision in the not too distant future, maybe sooner than people think. And I think they're going to be very happy," said Trump on Saturday evening.

So, Trump's running. I assume he'll pick Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate, as she'd check pretty much every box both Trump and the National GOP would want (woman, fanatically loyal to Trump).

Most likely imho is either Josh Hawley or he changes his registration back to NY or Bedminister, NJ to be able to pick DeSantis. Just like Cheney changed his residence back to WY in 2000. If Trump wants a female VP, is's either Haley or Blackburn.

I still think Mr. Trump won't be able to actually run as tons of legal issues are over his head like a black cloud.

DeSantis won't accept. Being a member of Trump's administration is the kiss of death for a Republican politician's career.

I don't understand this argument. How can it be a kiss of death for his career when Trump is extremely popular among Republicans, and it would give him an opportunity to be a heartbeat away from being the most powerful man on the planet? Trump is old and unhealthy... DeSantis or anyone else would be a fool to reject a VP offer.

Not who you were responding to, but the same way in which it might still end up turning out to have been a kiss of death for Pence's career in the end: if you can't be 100% loyal to Trump & his wishes 100% of the time (which has proven itself to be something of an inherent impossibility, in that one's own potential legal liability will always tend to get in the way of being able to obey Trump's orders sooner-or-later), he'll see to it that you're finished in GOP politics. Just ask Sessions.

Of course, DeSantis might just see that as a risk worth taking anyway, since Trump would be 78 upon taking office again.

Again... Pence's career isn't "dead"... he consistently leads in polls for 2024 primary (when Trump is not included) and was the Vice President for four years. If he retires now, that's not a bad career to have.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/benyt/status/1407163046506680327

[Ferguson97]

Trump says he’s made a decision about 2024, but won’t reveal what it is (though his followup comments hint that he’s running):

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tells-sean-hannity-hes-made-his-mind-about-running-2024-election-1605833

Trump made his comment during a Fox News town hall that Hannity hosted on Wednesday night.

"I have to ask, where are you in the process of," Hannity began before finally asking, "Without giving the answer what the answer is, have you made up your mind?"

"Yes," Trump responded.

"It's not that I want to," Trump later clarified. "The country needs it. We have to take care of this country. It isn't fun, fighting constantly, fighting always."

Here’s the relevant segment:

Well... I guess he's running.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/AndyKroll/status/1417146290870358025

[Ferguson97]

Mark Meadows Says He’s Meeting With Trump And Shadow ‘Cabinet Members’ On ‘Real Plans’
Former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows has been meeting with former President Donald Trump and “Cabinet members” about plans to “move forward in a real way,” he claimed in a Newsmax interview on Friday.

He refused to divulge the specifics of plans being discussed with Trump — whom he referred to as “the president” — at the former president’s Bedminster golf club in New Jersey.

Trump is “a president who is fully engaged, highly focused and remaining on task,” Meadows insisted.

“We met with several of our Cabinet members tonight, we actually had a follow-up ... meeting with some of our Cabinet members, and ... we’re looking at what does come next,” Meadows said.

He didn’t identify any of the “Cabinet members.” It was unclear if he was referring to Trump’s former Cabinet members or if some new group has been formed and is being referred to as a Cabinet.

As for the plans under discussion, Meadows told Newsmax: “I’m not authorized to speak on behalf of the president, but I can tell you this: We wouldn’t be meeting tonight if we weren’t making plans to move forward in a real way, with President Trump at the head of that ticket.”

Meadows’ statements rattled some, especially given the insistence with which extremist Trump supporters — like MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell — continue to push the lie that the former president will somehow be reinstated next month.

“I can’t stop thinking about this interview,” New York Times White House correspondent Maggie Haberman tweeted on Saturday. “The former chief of staff is talking as if there’s a shadow presidency going on (there isn’t) at a time when there’s a conspiracy theory that Trump will be reinstated (he won’t).”

Meadows insisted on Newsmax that “the magic is still there” with Trump, and shrugged off Trump’s failed endorsement of Susan Wright, who badly lost a Republican runoff this week in a House special election in Texas.

“Special elections are tough,” Meadows said, claiming that a Trump endorsement still has “unbelievable power, perhaps at historic levels.”

Trump also tried to spin his failed pick as a win earlier this week. “I don’t want to claim it is a loss, this was a win,” he said. “We had two very good people running that were both Republicans.”

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mark-meadows-trump-cabinet_n_6105c47ee4b0048f361dfb8c

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1422988881503432708


F O L K S

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Ferguson97]

Trump suggests that the USA will cease to exist in 2024, and also dodges the question on whether he’ll run for president of said non-existent country in the same year:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-predicts-america-end-three-years_n_61412c7be4b09519c50b2e02

“And you go to these elections coming up in ’22 and ’24 — we’re not going to have a country left,” Trump said. “The election was rigged, and we’re not going to have a country left in three years, I’ll tell you that.”
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However, Spicer did have one last question. After noting that Trump has said he has made a decision about a 2024 run and that his followers would be happy, Spicer asked the former president when he might announce his plans.

Trump avoided a direct answer but promised Spicer he would be happy with the decision and also claimed America is now “a laughingstock.”

At least, that's how I interpret "we’re not going to have a country left in three years", that Trump is saying that the USA will cease to exist.  OTOH, maybe the "we" is just him and Melania, and he's indicating that if he runs in 2024 and loses, the two of them will renounce US citizenship and become stateless pirates.  In that case, they wouldn't have a country anymore, but the rest of us would.

I loathe Trump but "we're not going to have a country anymore" is a relatively common saying in American politics, he's basically just saying that Bide will do such a bad job that the country will be unrecognizable.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/alexnazaryan/status/1445113676013449216