The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

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Any celebrities or billionaire businessmen made any noises yet?

mark cuban did polling for this cycle, and has talked about running 4 year from now.

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Greg Abbott not ruling out a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2020/11/12/abbott-not-ruling-out-2024-presidential-bid

In an interview on KSKY-AM in Dallas on Thursday, host Mark Davis asked Abbott if he is considering a bid for president in 2024. Abbott responded by not ruling out such a bid, saying, “we’ll see what happens.”

"One thing that you know about me, I take one step at a time," Abbott said.

underrated

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Greg Abbott not ruling out a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2020/11/12/abbott-not-ruling-out-2024-presidential-bid

In an interview on KSKY-AM in Dallas on Thursday, host Mark Davis asked Abbott if he is considering a bid for president in 2024. Abbott responded by not ruling out such a bid, saying, “we’ll see what happens.”

"One thing that you know about me, I take one step at a time," Abbott said.

underrated

Not after the lockdowns, he isn’t. He’d do badly in a national primary unless Republicans somehow lost some Texas races in 2022.

from the approval ratings I've seen, it's independents who have changed on him. You don't think he'd be a dark horse in Iowa/SC? And we're assuming he can't bounce back over the next two years.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AI65zrImrA&ab_channel=ReaganFoundation

Governor Hogan giving an address about Reagan's succesful electoral coalitions, rebranding the GOP after watergate etc

Pretty clearly 2024 fodder, at least to me.

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Bit of a shock but NSA Robert O'Brien has floated a 2024 bid

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/24/trumps-national-security-adviser-floats-a-2024-bid-with-friends-439999

Honestly being National Security Advisor is good prepping to *be* president, but I don't know that it prepares you to *run* for president.

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https://omaha.com/news/national/govt-and-politics/more-ronald-reagan-less-qanon-nebraskas-ben-sasse-ponders-gop-future-and-his-own-role/article_b58b1fbf-a32c-5471-a375-1020c3b9138a.html

Ben Sasse talking about his future and the GOP's.

Sasse, Rubio and Cotton would like their party to retain control of the chamber, of course, but they have something else in common — they’re all viewed as up-and-coming party leaders who could make presidential runs in 2024.

Sasse begs off when asked about his own White House ambitions, noting that President-elect Joe Biden has yet to even take the oath of office. The perpetual nature of campaigning these days makes voters want to “puke,” Sasse said.

If Sasse decides to go for it, however, he’ll have to deal with Trump, who has suggested he could run to reclaim the presidency in 2024.

[tosk]

https://www.axios.com/trump-2024-campaign-primary-cda9abf4-615c-4095-a2aa-1045f2a55970.html

some interesting bits:

On Tuesday night, Trump was explicit about his 2024 vow, telling guests at a White House holiday party, as tweeted by CNN's Kaitlan Collins:

"It’s been an amazing four years. We are trying to do another four years. Otherwise, I'll see you in four years."
The plan: Trump has made plain he'll fight to keep his ally Ronna McDaniel as head of the RNC, giving him tight control over party HQ.

The intrigue: Trump’s 2024 rivals privately tell Axios they assume Trump's power will fade post-White House, giving them hope they can still run.

Reality check: Several allies who talk regularly to Trump told Axios they believe he'll announce for 2024, but ultimately not make the run because of what one Republican close to Trump called "hurdles he has never before experienced."

"I think he will have more trouble than he can begin to imagine," the Republican said. "No one is going to let him have a free pass in the primary."
"The only question left open is whether the media will give up their addiction to him or not — that will determine a great deal."

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Politico has a story about GOP congressional reaction to a Trump 2024 run, with Josh Hawley saying "I would support him doing that" [that is, running and becoming the nominee....which I guess is a pseudo-promise to endorse him?].  And Rick Scott says “It’d be great if he ran”, which I guess stops a bit short of saying that he himself would endorse Trump:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/02/republicans-cheer-on-a-trump-2024-run-442310

“If he were to run in 2024, I think he would be the nominee. And I would support him doing that,” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). “He’d have a lot of support out in the country.”

“It’d be great if he ran. He’s done a good job. I think he ought to run if he wants to run. Who knows what’s going to happen in ‘24?” said Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who said he is not focused on a presidential run at the moment. “He can sell the things he accomplished.”

Meanwhile, others are not ready to cheer Trump ’24, including potential 2024 candidate Tom Cotton:

Still, not every Republican in Congress felt like chatting about the matter after five years of Trump’s dominance over the party. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said he doesn’t talk about those kinds of hypotheticals. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), a potential presidential candidate, declined to comment. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she hasn’t “thought at all about 2024” and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said it was “too speculative” a topic.

And then Rubio says he thinks Trump would win, but also offers no promise to endorse him in the primary or forego a run of his own:

“We’re so far away from that. I will tell you this. If he runs, I think he would clearly be the favorite. I think he would win,” said Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who ran against Trump in 2016 and has mulled another run in the future. “I know it’s an interesting story, but I have no idea.”

sounds like rubio might be one of the candidates who doesn't think trump has the same staying power

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Pompeo will join the long list of potential '24 candidates to campaign in Georgia:

https://twitter.com/tackettdc/status/1335996518747222018

He's made a habit of giving official speeches in politically important states

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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chris-christie-trump-2024-presidential-run

Throw on top of this his involvement in the GA senate runoff and his new ad advocating for mask wearing...

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Politico on Trump’s vanishing 2024 plans:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/10/trump-2024-campaign-456692

After he lost his reelection bid in November, Donald Trump immediately told allies he planned to run for president again in 2024, preparing to announce as soon as Inauguration Day.

He began backing off the idea after learning that running would require him to release a new round of financial documents that would make him vulnerable to his ongoing criminal and civil investigations and lawsuits, according to two Republicans close to Trump.

Then came last week.
.
.
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In interviews, more than half a dozen Republicans who had supported or worked for Trump say the president isn’t likely to run again, though he may tease it. If Trump changes his mind again and chooses to run, some said they would urge him not to, while others hope he’d be talked out of it.

“I think nothing is going to happen,” said a Trump friend. “He won’t be around in 2024. He’s not going to run. He’s going to f**k around and say he’s going to run. … He’ll tease. I don’t think he’s ever going to say ‘I won’t run.’ He just won’t run."

dont give me hope

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https://www.wmur.com/article/sen-tom-cotton-of-arkansas-tells-nh-republicans-hell-be-back-to-state-very-very-soon/35298479

some relevant segments:

Continuing his effort to make friends in first-presidential primary state New Hampshire, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton told more than 350 NHGOP members Saturday that he fully supports the state’s first-in-the-nation primary and plans to return to the Granite State “very, very soon.”

He said that while Biden and the Democratic majority in Congress will most likely raise taxes and create more regulations, Biden’s immigration plan “is probably the most consequential policy that he and the Democrats are going to push.”

“The very same illegal aliens who bring fentanyl and drugs to New Hampshire and across the country will now be allowed to stay in our country,” he said. “Where is the empathy for American victims of illegal immigrant crime?”

“We had a very strong election, despite what you’ve seen in the last few days,” Cotton said. He cited New Hampshire as an example of GOP success at the state level, winning majorities in the Legislature and on the Executive Council.

Cotton said he has created a state and local companion political action committee to his federal PAC, the Republican Majority Fund.

“I can do even more now to help in local races in New Hampshire, to help you keep and grow your majority,” he said.

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https://www.rawstory.com/josh-hawley-not-running-president/

Looks like Hawley's not running? We'll see how long this lasts, but I could see this happening due to him trying to be re-elected as senator of Missouri.

if he's still denying by this time next year and hasn't shifted to "thinking about it" or "considering" i'll be very surprised.

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In two different interviews this week (one of which was this morning) DeSantis was asked about his 2024 plans, and dodged the question:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/401006-speculation-desantis

DeSantis said when asked about 2024 that he’s “thinking about governing Florida and running for reelection in 2022,” before adding that “a lot of the speculation just goes back to what [host Greg Kelly was] saying, like people see me out here leading, and they like to see that in the Republican Party because, quite frankly, we need more Republicans to show some backbone.”

And then today:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/401733-2024-desantis-ron-prez

When host Will Cain asked DeSantis if he was going to take the 2024 plunge, the Governor laughed theatrically.

“We’ve got a great Governor’s election in 2022, which will be very important for our state and quite frankly I think, uh, you know, it gives us the ability to keep the momentum going, so that’s what we’re focused on.”

When asked if that was a no, the Governor demurred.

“That’s a ‘we have 2022 to worry about’,” the Governor said.

this is the most open he's sounded about it. the leadership comment seems like him cracking the door open to the idea of a run. "No one is showing the leadership I think we need, so I will step forward" etc.

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Gaetz would be a very weak GE candidate. What are his foreign policy credentials? He'd be the Republican version of Dukakis and would lose unless Biden manages to maintain horrendous approvals.

What were Trump's foreign policy credentials?

^^^

what where obamas? bushs? clintons?

It's been awhile since we had a president with serious foreign policy chops, and that wasn't why HW got elected. I don't like Gaetz, but he's a bad candidate because he can't expand his appeal.

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Gaetz would be a very weak GE candidate. What are his foreign policy credentials? He'd be the Republican version of Dukakis and would lose unless Biden manages to maintain horrendous approvals.

What were Trump's foreign policy credentials?

^^^

what where obamas? bushs? clintons?

It's been awhile since we had a president with serious foreign policy chops, and that wasn't why HW got elected. I don't like Gaetz, but he's a bad candidate because he can't expand his appeal.

Wouldn't Biden be considered as a president with serious foreign policy chops?

good point, can't believe he slipped my mind. I'd argue the point still stands, as he wasn't elected because of his foreign policy experience, but you're right that he's easily the most experienced we've had since HW.

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I’m calling it now that Biden will win re-election, for one simple reason: The Lichtman Keys will be strongly in his favor if he runs, and he’s privately said that he’s planning to run again. He understands how risky it would be to retire after one term due to the fear of Trumpism returning. If he is in good health, he will run and he will win.

Do you more so mean that a strong economy and high favorable would lead to Biden running again? or do you mean that the actual keys themselves will be the reason he runs again?

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https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-capitol-siege-coronavirus-pandemic-elections-3d9480c897abcc9ae6a2388cf27b29ce

Hagerty said he met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida this week. They even talked about the decision Trump is facing over whether to run again in 2024 — Hagerty said Trump is focused on the 2022 elections and hasn’t yet decided whether to run.

 low key hagerty would make for a good running mate for just about any nominee

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https://www.axios.com/chris-christie-2024-presidential-election-4eac5391-8239-4a92-93e1-4f0fb5b367ab.html

Christies allies expect him to run.

He's very clearly floating the balloon. I do wonder what he would determine his path to be. He could try a redux of his 2016 campaign but I really think he'd have to mix things up to stage a comeback. He wouldn't be the first shocker of a comeback though.

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Christie, whose 2016 bid for the nomination was short-lived, has told friends that he'd be the only person in the 2024 field with executive experience who has run a presidential race before.

Is "I don't have a day job (but i used to!) and I've done this before!" a winning pitch?

to normal voters no. to people behind the scenes, I do think it could work. He's going to run into the problem of pence (executive experience + being on the national campaign trail) but he can certainly make the pitch to donors that they can't afford to take a gamble in 2024. although this might be better in it's own thread

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https://www.wmur.com/article/christie-tells-nh-conservatives-unity-necessary-for-gop-to-win-back-congress-white-house/36277971

Christie spoke to some NH politicos

Christie is said to be strongly considering a second run for president in 2024, but in his remote talk to the New Hampshire Right of Center Coalition, presidential politics did not come up. His appearance, however, will continue to fuel speculation about his political future.

“We have to call out Joe Biden and the members of the Democratic congress, who are doing two major things at the same time. They’re not telling the truth to the American people and the reason they’re not telling the truth to the American people is because they’re trying to absolutely impose a socialist agenda, which they know the American people, if identified as such, would not support under any circumstances.

“I don’t mind argument and disagreement inside the party,” Christie said. “It helps to make us stronger. But when we’re focusing just on personalities and we’re looking through the rear view mirror, we are going to be a losing party.

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Christie:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/chris-christie-swipes-nikki-haley-for-deferring-to-trump-on-potential-2024-run-shows-weakness-indecision

"After 2022 is over, we'll make a decision about whether we're going to run or not, but I certainly won't preclude it and I'm also not going to be one of these people who's gonna say, ‘Well, I’ll wait to see what President Trump is gonna do,'" Christie said. "I'm not going to defer to anyone. If I decide that it's what I want to do and I think I'm the best option for the Republican Party and for the country."

He continued, If you're saying you're deferring to someone, that's a real sign of both weakness and indecision and we've already got that in the White House."

good podcast!

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Aside from the early primary states, another common place to visit for prospective presidential candidates (especially Republicans) is Israel.  Pompeo is heading there later this week.

Cruz has also just arrived in Israel:

https://twitter.com/Kredo0/status/1399062156654563329

Asa Hutchinson not ruling out a run for president in 2024:

https://www.swtimes.com/story/opinion/2021/05/30/brawner-presidential-run-still-option-arkansas-governors-table/7461948002/

The governor was careful not to get too specific about anything past 2022, but he did confirm that he’s still considering running for president in 2024.

“Yes, that answer I gave is still true because I’m healthy, I’m invigorated, I have strong convictions about where we need to go, and if you want to be engaged after you’ve been governor of Arkansas, there’s only a couple of places that give you an avenue for that public engagement,” he said. “And it’s important for me to concentrate on 2022 as everyone should, but you can’t take things off the table for 2024 or what might open up.”

DeSantis and Cotton both headed to Nevada in August:

https://texasnewstoday.com/pompeos-return-trip-to-iowa-to-ignite-further-speculation-in-2024/292411/

DeSantis and Cotton will meet with former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laksal at the 6th Basque Fly on August 14. Adam Laksal will meet with Democratic Senator next year. It is very likely that the Republican challenge will begin against Catherine Cortez Mast.

Hutchitson?? Has he made noise before this?

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Trump says he’s made a decision about 2024, but won’t reveal what it is (though his followup comments hint that he’s running):

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tells-sean-hannity-hes-made-his-mind-about-running-2024-election-1605833

Trump made his comment during a Fox News town hall that Hannity hosted on Wednesday night.

"I have to ask, where are you in the process of," Hannity began before finally asking, "Without giving the answer what the answer is, have you made up your mind?"

"Yes," Trump responded.

"It's not that I want to," Trump later clarified. "The country needs it. We have to take care of this country. It isn't fun, fighting constantly, fighting always."

Here’s the relevant segment:

pain

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In what should come as a shock to no one, Business Insider reports that "Cruz's allies are eyeing another presidential run":

https://news.yahoo.com/10-things-politics-cruzworld-eyes-093401898.html

Ted Cruz's allies are eyeing another presidential run. They view the Texas senator as a "formidable candidate" given the extensive network and name recognition he built in 2016 campaign that fell just short of the nomination.

But like everyone else, Cruz's decision isn't his alone: "Trump is his own orbit. If he runs, nobody else runs," said a former Cruz campaign staffer.

The story also lists several people in Cruz's orbit who would likely be involved in a Cruz '24 campaign.

I doubt that Cruz will run for re-election to his Senate seat, despite the fact that Texas law allows him to do so. Also, he supports term limits, and he may be one of the ones who doesn't want to be a hypocrite about it.

paging Dr. Rand Paul!