The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't know why everyone is pretending there's a chance Trump won't run. Unless they're counting on him dying, none of Cruz/DeSantis et al are going to be running in 2024.

I'd go further; I don't know why anyone's pretending he isn't a lock to be the Republican nominee. Sure this is the tea leaves thread, and it definitely looks like Pompeo at a minimum is running, but it's irrelevant really; Trump will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024.

I think most people expect him to be the nominee if he runs. The people just don’t seem to be convinced he will actually pull the trigger.

[Tekken_Guy]

NPR saying he's gonna do it.

I don't think so.  "NPR reports that Trump wants to run in 2024" is just Charles Cooke's summary in this tweet that links to his own column, whose only mention of NPR is:

"Donald Trump hasn’t said for sure whether he will run in 2024,” reports NPR. “But he’s having a hell of a lot of fun teasing it.”

That column links to this NPR story: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/14/1086313468/braving-rain-and-cold-trumps-supporters-soak-up-hints-of-another-run

Which doesn't include any original content about Trump's intentions.  It's just the same stuff that's already been reported, about how he's dropping hints.

Trump seems to be teasing a run in 2024, but he always likes to tease things. But is he taking any steps about actually being serious about following through in 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

NPR saying he's gonna do it.

I don't think so.  "NPR reports that Trump wants to run in 2024" is just Charles Cooke's summary in this tweet that links to his own column, whose only mention of NPR is:

"Donald Trump hasn’t said for sure whether he will run in 2024,” reports NPR. “But he’s having a hell of a lot of fun teasing it.”

That column links to this NPR story: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/14/1086313468/braving-rain-and-cold-trumps-supporters-soak-up-hints-of-another-run

Which doesn't include any original content about Trump's intentions.  It's just the same stuff that's already been reported, about how he's dropping hints.

Trump seems to be teasing a run in 2024, but he always likes to tease things. But is he taking any steps about actually being serious about following through in 2024?

Isn't he deliberately putting off the actual decision as long as possible for campaign finance purposes?

That’s not exactly evidence he’s serious about running.

[Tekken_Guy]

NPR saying he's gonna do it.

I don't think so.  "NPR reports that Trump wants to run in 2024" is just Charles Cooke's summary in this tweet that links to his own column, whose only mention of NPR is:

"Donald Trump hasn’t said for sure whether he will run in 2024,” reports NPR. “But he’s having a hell of a lot of fun teasing it.”

That column links to this NPR story: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/14/1086313468/braving-rain-and-cold-trumps-supporters-soak-up-hints-of-another-run

Which doesn't include any original content about Trump's intentions.  It's just the same stuff that's already been reported, about how he's dropping hints.

Trump seems to be teasing a run in 2024, but he always likes to tease things. But is he taking any steps about actually being serious about following through in 2024?

Isn't he deliberately putting off the actual decision as long as possible for campaign finance purposes?

That’s not exactly evidence he’s serious about running.

What would qualify as evidence to you that he is serious about running? Because to me it looks like he's done everything apart from say "I am running for president in 2024".

I’m just feeling like he’s just teasing. He may still run yes but maybe he doesn’t.

[Tekken_Guy]

NPR saying he's gonna do it.

I don't think so.  "NPR reports that Trump wants to run in 2024" is just Charles Cooke's summary in this tweet that links to his own column, whose only mention of NPR is:

"Donald Trump hasn’t said for sure whether he will run in 2024,” reports NPR. “But he’s having a hell of a lot of fun teasing it.”

That column links to this NPR story: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/14/1086313468/braving-rain-and-cold-trumps-supporters-soak-up-hints-of-another-run

Which doesn't include any original content about Trump's intentions.  It's just the same stuff that's already been reported, about how he's dropping hints.

Trump seems to be teasing a run in 2024, but he always likes to tease things. But is he taking any steps about actually being serious about following through in 2024?

Isn't he deliberately putting off the actual decision as long as possible for campaign finance purposes?

That’s not exactly evidence he’s serious about running.

What would qualify as evidence to you that he is serious about running? Because to me it looks like he's done everything apart from say "I am running for president in 2024".

I’m just feeling like he’s just teasing. He may still run yes but maybe he doesn’t.

Like I said though, what evidence would you need to prove he is being serious?

I’m just skeptical until he’s officially in. I mean I was expecting Sununu to run for Senate until he didn’t.

[Tekken_Guy]

NPR saying he's gonna do it.

I don't think so.  "NPR reports that Trump wants to run in 2024" is just Charles Cooke's summary in this tweet that links to his own column, whose only mention of NPR is:

"Donald Trump hasn’t said for sure whether he will run in 2024,” reports NPR. “But he’s having a hell of a lot of fun teasing it.”

That column links to this NPR story: https://www.npr.org/2022/03/14/1086313468/braving-rain-and-cold-trumps-supporters-soak-up-hints-of-another-run

Which doesn't include any original content about Trump's intentions.  It's just the same stuff that's already been reported, about how he's dropping hints.

Trump seems to be teasing a run in 2024, but he always likes to tease things. But is he taking any steps about actually being serious about following through in 2024?

Isn't he deliberately putting off the actual decision as long as possible for campaign finance purposes?

That’s not exactly evidence he’s serious about running.

What would qualify as evidence to you that he is serious about running? Because to me it looks like he's done everything apart from say "I am running for president in 2024".

I’m just feeling like he’s just teasing. He may still run yes but maybe he doesn’t.

Like I said though, what evidence would you need to prove he is being serious?

I’m just skeptical until he’s officially in. I mean I was expecting Sununu to run for Senate until he didn’t.

Except Sununu never really commented on whether he would run for Senate, he just said "we'll see". It would be different if he was telling everyone he knew he was running and consistently called himself the "next Senator from New Hampshire" and that he's gonna have to "win the Senate race".

Anyway if it were clear Trump is running I don’t think there’d be any discourse around DeSantis and everyone else.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't know why everyone is pretending there's a chance Trump won't run. Unless they're counting on him dying, none of Cruz/DeSantis et al are going to be running in 2024.

I'd go further; I don't know why anyone's pretending he isn't a lock to be the Republican nominee. Sure this is the tea leaves thread, and it definitely looks like Pompeo at a minimum is running, but it's irrelevant really; Trump will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024.

I think most people expect him to be the nominee if he runs. The people just don’t seem to be convinced he will actually pull the trigger.

I really struggle with people who don't think he'll run; literally everything he's said and done indicates he will, and based on everything we know about his compulsive need to be in the public eye and to be number one, it's impossible to imagine him bowing out. The only way I see him not running is if his health takes a drastic downturn (unlikely; he seems frustratingly spry for his age + BMI) or he's barred from running for whatever reason.

How does he get barred from running.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't know why everyone is pretending there's a chance Trump won't run. Unless they're counting on him dying, none of Cruz/DeSantis et al are going to be running in 2024.

I'd go further; I don't know why anyone's pretending he isn't a lock to be the Republican nominee. Sure this is the tea leaves thread, and it definitely looks like Pompeo at a minimum is running, but it's irrelevant really; Trump will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024.

I think most people expect him to be the nominee if he runs. The people just don’t seem to be convinced he will actually pull the trigger.

I really struggle with people who don't think he'll run; literally everything he's said and done indicates he will, and based on everything we know about his compulsive need to be in the public eye and to be number one, it's impossible to imagine him bowing out. The only way I see him not running is if his health takes a drastic downturn (unlikely; he seems frustratingly spry for his age + BMI) or he's barred from running for whatever reason.

How does he get barred from running.

It's not going to happen, but Congress can theoretically bar him based on the 14th right?

However using the same simple majority vote, congress can UNbar him once Republicans get in power.
Also I expect the Supreme Court to weigh in on whether Trump legally "incited insurrection", as that is a requirement for him to be banned. As the Supreme Court has always been very very careful about what constituted illegal speech, it's basically impossible it would stand up in court.

So if Democrats bar him from running, it will either be overturned once Republicans take over, or overturned via the Supreme Court. And then Republicans get the massively huge optics boost from Democrats trying to ban their biggest opponent from running for President and making him look like a victim of political censorship.

And people still call the 14th amendment banning Trump a good idea...

Does this work different from the disqualification method through impeachment.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't know why everyone is pretending there's a chance Trump won't run. Unless they're counting on him dying, none of Cruz/DeSantis et al are going to be running in 2024.

I'd go further; I don't know why anyone's pretending he isn't a lock to be the Republican nominee. Sure this is the tea leaves thread, and it definitely looks like Pompeo at a minimum is running, but it's irrelevant really; Trump will be the Republican nominee for President in 2024.

I think most people expect him to be the nominee if he runs. The people just don’t seem to be convinced he will actually pull the trigger.

I really struggle with people who don't think he'll run; literally everything he's said and done indicates he will, and based on everything we know about his compulsive need to be in the public eye and to be number one, it's impossible to imagine him bowing out. The only way I see him not running is if his health takes a drastic downturn (unlikely; he seems frustratingly spry for his age + BMI) or he's barred from running for whatever reason.

How does he get barred from running.

It's not going to happen, but Congress can theoretically bar him based on the 14th right?

However using the same simple majority vote, congress can UNbar him once Republicans get in power.
Also I expect the Supreme Court to weigh in on whether Trump legally "incited insurrection", as that is a requirement for him to be banned. As the Supreme Court has always been very very careful about what constituted illegal speech, it's basically impossible it would stand up in court.

So if Democrats bar him from running, it will either be overturned once Republicans take over, or overturned via the Supreme Court. And then Republicans get the massively huge optics boost from Democrats trying to ban their biggest opponent from running for President and making him look like a victim of political censorship.

And people still call the 14th amendment banning Trump a good idea...

Does this work different from the disqualification method through impeachment.

It is different. Impeachment requires 2/3 majority, 14th amendment needs only a simple majority.

I meant in terms of overturning it.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/17/sanders-khanna-presidential-bid-2024-00018017

Sanders camp pushing Ro Khanna for presidential bid if Biden doesn't run.

REALLY SMART idea. None of the Squad are electable at all, as I've said 100 times before Khanna or Welch are the only progressives who can mount a successful presidential run.
Khanna is real presidential material imo.

Ayanna Pressley's probably electable, but there's no evidence she's even interested in running for President.

The general consensus on Pressley is that the next Senate opening in MA is hers.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Trump wasn't running before, he definitely is now...

How would you rate the chances he is the 2024 nominee compared to before the raid?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MartinPengelly/status/1554116493176094720

Ironically if Trump runs and he is selected as VP, he would be in an excellent position in 2028 due to increased name recognition, that can be considered a plot as well. Being tied to Trump might not be an exactly good thing depending on what he does, but it's also risky to not be like that. Scott knows that 2024 is too early and being a VP choice would dramatically improve his chances for beyond, and he's still quite young (or at least compared to the latest presidents). And remember that being VP of Trump is better than VP of a different candidate, since Trump already served one term.

Trump - if he would be the nominee - would also benefit from choosing Tim Scott for VP. And if he runs in 2024, it will likely be running to be someones VP.

Unfortunately for him I’d think Dems would be favored in 2028 after another Trump term. Also, I feel that DeSantis would be more likely to pick him as a running mate than Trump would be.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1559727777737330688

She’s definitely no Abraham Lincoln. I’m a Democrat and feel that this is the equivalent of Republicans speculating about Tulsi Gabbard winning the Democratic nomination in ‘24 or something.

Her running would siphon more votes from Biden than it would from Trump. The 2020 election was arguably won by moderate Republicans turning away from Trump. Those people would almost certainly vote for Cheney rather than Biden or Trump if given the choice

The chances of Trump being the nominee have been going way down and DeSantis way up. DeSantis probably wins those voters outright.

[Tekken_Guy]

Youngkin/Scott is by far the strongest ticket they could put up. They’d win back the suburbs and be able to reclaim the rust belt from Biden. But they won’t, because their party has no clue how to think strategically like the Democrats do. So Trump and a narrow Biden win once again it is!

DeSantis would be better suited, and is more likely to win a primary.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Biden runs in 2024 he loses.

Even against Trump?

[Tekken_Guy]

After last night. Trump is over.

He's not going to back down. His base could still propel him to the nomination, but after last night, I don't think he is a real threat to win. Biden will beat him again.

The country is tired of Trump and the circuit show he brings with him.

Also I think he's not going to have an easy road to the nomination anymore.