The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

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On the Republican Side:

Nikki Haley would be a, potentially, tough candidate for Dems to face in 2024... but I'm not sure she would win a Republican Primary. She would most likely pick either Josh Hawley or Marco Rubio as a running mate... which would probably make the ticket even more of an uphill battle for Dems.

Marco Rubio is generally a weakened candidate regarding a national ticket... but as a VP, he would ensure a win in Florida for Republicans- and would probably benefit Republicans in Georgia, Arizona & Nevada.

Josh Hawley, on paper, is a strong VP candidate- he's camera-ready & he's got top-notch educational credentials. That said, he underperforms (& seems to lack any X-factor) when he's on the stump or giving a speech to a crowd, IMO. Otherwise, he would be a guaranteed future name on the Presidential ticket. But, unless he improves his big crowd charisma & stump presence...he may not reach that Presidential ticket potential.  


On the Dem side:

I do not think Biden will end up running for re-election (I give it a 60% chance that he will not run).

Regarding Harris- I'm also not 100% sure that she would automatically get the nomination if Biden does not run.  It will depend on how people perceive her performance & leadership qualities over the next 3 years.  Although she will likely benefit from there being a lack of a standout Dem candidate to be an alternative.  That said- a relatively new name could emerge... and/or someone like Governor Lujan-Grisham could also be a potentially strong candidate.

If Harris is the Nominee, she could have some strong VP candidates (NM Gov Michelle Lujan Grisham, Ohio Sen Sherrod Brown, NC Gov Roy Cooper.... and an (unlikely) dark horse- Beto, if he were to somehow win 2022 Texas Governor).

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Nikki Haley would be a, potentially, tough candidate for Dems to face in 2024...

Can you explain to me - like I'm a kindergartener - why you and so many others believe this? What is her unique appeal? She strikes me as a Rubio-esque paper tiger: checks all the boxes from a Beltway lens but would not actually resonate with everyday voters.

Not to mention a bigger issue, in my opinion, that by 2024, she'll have been out of office for 6 years and out of elected office for 8 years. Not clear to me how she keeps herself relevant (or if she even is relevant today, beyond the small number of people who avidly follow politics).

Regarding Nikki Haley...

She definitely isn't a policy wonk or Ivy Educated... but she has very shrewd political instincts.  And she is good at talking in plain language (no senate speak) which seems to appeal to a wide audience. Also in this regard, she knows how to talk about policy or political topics, in a way that comes across as fairly moderate (regardless of how moderate or conservative the position she is describing actually is)... which could hurt her in a republican primary. But overall she is fairly quick-witted, comfortable under pressure,  a talented at portraying an understated southern charm.

Her ability to come across as the working mom next door... is partly because not too long ago- that's exactly what she was. Nikki grew up just outside of Lexington SC, went to Clemson, then moved back to work (doing the accounting) for her parent's local dress shop.

My older sister is 3-4 years younger than Nikki. They both live in Lexington, SC and my niece and nephew are the same age as Nikki's kids.  Although she & my sister were not best friends (as they were about 4 years apart)...Nikki & her husband & my sister and brother-in-law were in the same extended circle of friends in Lexington (& their kids went to the same local preschool (which a common friend of theirs owned) when they were toddlers & were good friends... Nikki's brother-in-law was their local Dentist, etc. So Nikki was literally sort of the girl next door.

So I can remember my sister thinking it was neat when Nikki (at age 33 or 34), decided to run for the State House seat for Lexington (with no prior political experience)... which she won.  Then about 5-6 years later, Nikki jumped into the Republican Gubernatorial Primary...which she won (then easily won the General... as Republicans usually do in SC). Fast-forward another 5-6 years, and Nikki is appointed to be the Ambassador to the UN.  So she sort of seemed to go from winning a local State House race... to UN ambassador, in very short order.

But her political savvy is highlight by who she (as a complete political novice) defeated in both of those early races.  In her 1st race (State House Seat)- she entered the Republican Primary to challenge (and defeated) the local incumbent republican State House member in Lexington (who at the time, was the longest-serving State House member in SC).  

Then, after only a couple of terms in the State House, she entered the Republican Gubernatorial primary as sort of a long shot (due to limited political experience & due to the fact that SC had never elected a Female.. or minority... Governor (or Senator).
  
Additionally, the other 3 candidates in the primary were:
-Gresham Barrett (popular 3-term US Congressman... who she defeated in the run-off)
-Andre Bauer (the outgoing 2 term Lt Governor...Mark Sandford was the outgoing 2nd term as Gov)
-Henry McMaster (the outgoing 2-term Atty General & prior 8 year SC Repub Party Chair & now-Current Gov).

So she defeated the longest-serving state house member in a primary for her 1st election.  Then, still with fairly limited political experience, became the first Minority & first Female SC Governor, by winning a primary against the serving 8 year Lt. Governor, the serving 8 year Atty General, and a popular 3 term sitting US House member.  It takes shrewd & keen political instincts to successfully win those elections against very seasoned candidates (and all of her races were basically decided in the Primary... since SC is dominated by Republican Party).  Nikki has in fact never lost an election.

Interesting side note (which many may already know)... Nikki 1st decided to run for office (the original Republican statehouse primary race), after being inspired by a speech she went to hear... given by Hillary Clinton. (Hillary was in town (Columbia) to speak to a women's group/organization- (can't remember which) on the topic of women in politics.

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I gotta say as a South Carolinian my parents hate her, especially my dad. He's very conservative but her refusal to aid farmers (wouldn't even meet with the Ag Commissioner) after Hurricane Matthew pissed him off and a lot of famers (and therefore conservatives). I could see something like that haunting her, especially trying to get through Iowa.

I could definitely see her having trouble in a Republican Presidential Primary (although probably a good general election candidate if she ever made it through the primary). What you are highlighting, sort of speaks to her ultimate weakness... her strength & interest is the Political game, not the policy side.  (She reminds me a little of almost a George W. Bush (comes across very likeable and down to earth & relatable...but less adept at developing policy solutions etc.  And while I do think she would win the SC Primary... I also think she is overall more highly look at, by people outside of SC. BTW...My Granddad is also a life long farmer (in NC)... and is also conservative & Republican.

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Please, Niki Hayley has no appeal for Trump's white, non educated base. She's a non starter as POTUS candidate.

I do not necessarily disagree-  I've always said she would probably have an uphill battle in a Republican presidential primary... but if she ever made it to the general election- she could be a tough opponent for Dems. And although I do like her better than most potential Republican candidates... I Obviously hope she doesn't win the Primary (I would hope for someone like Ted Cruz to win- b/c I think he is easier for Dem candidate to defeat in the general).

That said- I certainly would never underestimate her chances. Especially considering: the 1st political office she won (state house for Lexington)- is a Pro-Trump district and also located in the US congressional district that Joe Wilson represents (he is also from Lexington).  Additionally, she was twice elected Governor in SC (which certainly has no shortage of non-college-educated, Pro-Trump voters.

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That is a very thorough and helpful explanation! Thank you!

How do you feel about my concern re: her length of time out of office? How do you think she'll keep herself relevant?

That's a good question... that I'm not sure what I think the answer is.  On one hand, 6 years (prior 2 years + 4 more years) is certainly very different than simply being out of office for 2 years.  But, candidates often announce their Presidential campaigns- 1.5 years prior to the election (which could bring the time frame down to about 2.5 years from now).  4.5 years out of office still feels like a serious time gap.  That said, the next 2.5 years will likely seem to pass in the blink of an eye. So its certainly possible that the time gap ends up not being as harmful as one would expect- especially, due to a high likelihood Haley's name will remain in the 24-7 cable news world (as talk of 2024 is sure to become an increasingly regular topic any day now).

Also, Haley's strength is her political aptitude- not her policy aptitude... and I think political skill (or political x-factor, or whatever), may have a longer shelf life- vs being considered a 2024 possibility as a result of a perfect resume of experience or being especially relevant to current policy debates, etc.

So, although I do think she could hit a roadblock in the form of the Republican Presidential Primary...I probably come down on the side of the time gap from office not being much of a roadblock. 

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There you go:
https://twitter.com/SaacksAttack/status/1579959325090787333
Now all what we have to do is to convince that stupid moron-like GOP Primary Electorate to abandon Trump.

While I don't like all the stuff Paul Ryan did as Speaker of the House these are good choices.

Out of any of these I'd prefer Tim Scott the most.

Tim Scott from what I can tell is a good guy... but he is completely an empty suit as an effective Senator... much less President.  Haley is also, (although to a lesser extent) somewhat of an empty suit from a policy standpoint... but she is a great campaigner... and overall a good leader. (That said, she will probably never make any headway in a Republican Presidential primary... But I do think she has a good chance of being the VP nom).

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On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

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On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

Biden already said he's going to run, or intends to run. Should his deteriorate, Harris would absolutely run. She'd start out as the frontrunner for the nomination. Might not be the homerun she hopes for, though her winning the nomination then is still way more likely than not. So the chance neither of these two is on the ticket is marginal.

I think regardless what he has said- most ppl think he will not end up running. I never said Harris will not run- I said she will not get the nomination. (I think most ppl agree that she would not win the nomination).  Just look at current polling:

Harris is in a distant 7th place in 2024 NH Polling, which is the post recent 2024 Dem poll (she's only 1 pt above AOC).  Practically no one that I am aware of, thinks Harris would start off as the front runner if Biden doesn't run (even though in most cases the VP would be the front runner).

She gained no traction in the last Dem Presidential Primary- and her approval numbers have gone lower since then.

I'm not saying this is reflective of my personal opinion on Harris (I actually do not really have an opinion right now)... but I think this is objectively the general consensus currently regarding her prospects.  Regarding Biden- I do not think he should run for re-election, mainly due to age... which I think is definitely a majority opinion among Dems currently.

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On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

I disagree. Harris is the sitting VP and has a lot of popularity with Black voters, who are the base of the Democratic Party and largely decide the nominee. They are not going to vote for a random red state Governor.

Harris does not have a notable high popularity among Black voters overall.  Also- she had a very subpar performance in the last Presidential primary- and  a majority of Black voters supported white candidates over Harris.  Black voters will certainly vote for a "red state" governor (over half of the Dem party in NC... are Black.  So that is technically the base of Roy Coopers support).  Black voters will certainly lean towards supporting a Black candidate... but only if they think that candidate is strong enough to win a general election (for example- Obama didn't get much of the Black community support... until he proved himself by winning Iowa).

I do think Buttigieg could have an uphill battle with Black voters- but probably less so than he did in the last primary.  In general- I think Dem candidates from the South (Gov, Senators, etc) regardless of color- start out in the strongest position to gain the support of Southern black voters (as a general rule).

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Politico article speculating about backers of Wes Moore positioning him for a run for President.

Wes Moore is on the rise — and some of the Democrat’s close allies already have their sights on more than just the Maryland governor’s mansion.

Moore is poised to become just the third elected Black governor in U.S. history if he holds onto a wide polling lead in Maryland. He may well be the nation’s only Black chief executive in the country next year.


Accomplishing that feat comes with lofty expectations from a Democratic Party hungry for a new generation of leaders. Moore would also enter the governorship under intense scrutiny: a political neophyte promising to usher in an era of transformation in his first elected gig.


If such a high-pressure debut seems like cause for caution, his supporters aren’t tempering their enthusiasm.

Moore has racked up a slew of endorsements, including a rare political nod from Oprah Winfrey. Democratic luminaries are drawn to the energy and charisma he displays on the trail running for the state’s open governorship.


Even President Joe Biden chose a Democratic Party event in the Washington, D.C. suburb of Rockville as his unofficial midterm campaign kickoff. There Biden heaped praise on Moore, the former head of the Robin Hood Foundation, the anti-poverty nonprofit, as well as a captain who led troops in the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division in Afghanistan.



“Wes is the real deal. The real deal, folks. He’s a combat veteran. Only drawback is he’s a Rhodes Scholar,” Biden joked. “Former CEO of one of the biggest anti-poverty organizations in America,” he continued, “and if we all do our part, the next governor of Maryland.”

And while the president made no mention of his former boss, others in the party can’t help but compare Moore, a moderate, to the nation’s first Black president. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer not-so-subtly reached for not one, but two former presidents as comparisons when asked about Moore’s experience.

“Ronald Reagan didn’t have much experience before he became the governor of the largest state, except as an actor. Barack Obama had a few years [in the U.S. Senate],” said Hoyer, the No. 2 Democrat in the House, deflecting criticisms raised about Moore.

I was unfamiliar with Wes Moore.  But after briefly looking him up (and without knowing of any potential controversies etc)- I could definitely see him being on the Top of any 2024 Presidential list.

Veteran, Rhodes Scholar, interesting back story, charismatic, telegenic, early 40s, college football player, NY Times best selling author (so I'm sure he's an effective communicator).  At least on paper- he's pretty much perfect.

The only potential problem is he would basically have to start running for President immediately after he is elected Governor- which actually could prove to be almost impossible to successfully maneuver.
... But assuming this prevents him from running for the 2024 nominee (and based on my belief that Biden will not run in 2024 and Harris will not win the nomination)- I think Moore will be at the top of every VP shortlist (despite Maryland not being an important state electorally).

So for 2024, I could definitely see:

Roy Cooper/ Wes Moore
Andy Beshear/ Wes Moore
Buttigieg/ Moore  (2 Rhodes Scholars)

*or if Moore somehow runs, I would not be surprised by the ticket being a flip of one of the above

*I've always thought Gov Lujan-Grisham would be a strong candidate (and demographically I think for 2024, a Latina candidate would be a double benefit)... but I can't get a good read on how she is perceived in NM (even though she is likely soon to be a 2 term governor- he approval rating seems pretty low for a Dem in NM... not sure if that is due to national issue- or issues specific to Lujan-Grisham). 

*Also- if Demmings could somehow (probably unlikely) pull out at win in FL- she will be a top VP choice. (I think like Moore, it would be hard to immediately run for president that soon after taking office).

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I do like the fact that Beshear, Buttigieg, and Wes Moore are all under 45.

And at the same time all have a level of gravitas:
Beshear is the most popular Dem Gov.. I think nationwide currently.
Buttigieg is even a point above Biden in the NH primary poll (and won Iowa caucus last election).
Wes Moore is likely going to be elected Governor by over a 30pt margin.

Buttigieg/ Moore would be a ticket of... double vet, double Rhodes Scholar, double early/mid 40s. Certainly could at least have the potential of a really strong, dynamic ticket for 2024.

I think Dems would be well served in 2024 by a ticket of both names being early-mid 40s. In modern history- Dem nominees under 50 always win.  I also think Dems would be well served by a 2024 ticket that includes no members of Congress (House or Senate).

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Sadly Moore and Shapiro are coming in at the wrong moment. Way too green for Presidential runs in '24 or even as a VP pick. By the time their time comes in 2028 they'll either be trying to keep the WH after 8 years of Biden, beating an incumbent DeSantis or winning an open seat after Trump(best case). Of course either of them could turn out to be unpopular or lose reelection before then.

I agree that there is pretty much no way they could run for the nomination so soon after taking office.  But VP is definitely not off the table.. I definitely think the timing would not be great- but from an optics standpoint, unlike running for the nomination- the VP is chosen to join the ticket... and almost seen as a service to the nominee/ party/ etc.

Regarding DeSantis/ Trump winning ... I think its way to early to make a prediction- considering we have no clue who the Dem nominee will be (since most polls indicate that a majority of Dems do not think Biden will run for re-election... regardless what he is currently saying.  And Harris isn't even top 5 in the latest NH primary polls).

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https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1591483708720447489

This poll appears to be a bit of an outlier. The 3 polls from mid-late October on RCP, pretty uniformly had the race at 50% Trump 25% Desantis. If you use the -10 Trump +6 shift from this Post Election Nov poll... The race would sit around: 40% Trump 31% DeSantis .

The problem DeSantis is probably looking at- is that Trump has a base of support around this 40% of Republicans- this seems possible to get to a tie with.. but is hard to get past.. Especially if you have a couple other candidates in the primary.

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Trump has collapsed.

The only question is what DeSantis' politics and policies are.

If DeSantis is telling top donors that he will not challenge Trump- Then I think he's decided 4 more years of High approval ratings as Gov, is a more secure path to the White House, than a messy primary against Trump (if Trump actually runs).  ... which is likely correct.

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Even if Biden runs- there is a good chance he loses in the Primary. Although this almost never happens... Age/ concern over health capacity ... is one reason that makes this situation different. I also think the risk of losing- is a big reason Biden may end up not running (to ensure he ends long career at President... rather than risk ending a ousted in Primary).

But nationwide polls are very important. The early primaries will set the tone:

The latest NH Primary had Biden in 2nd Place by 1pt (with only 16% support). Harris is in 7th or 8th place with about 6% support.


Also- Iowa isn't naturally fertile ground for Biden. In 2020 Iowa Caucus, he finished 4th (with only 14%). Harris did not meet the threshold to get any votes.

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I think even if Biden runs- like he currently says he is (which I think will change) ... he will end up having main stream challengers.  There will be a groundswell forcing at least 1 main stream challenger- and once they jump in, others will follow.  At that point, I do not think Biden would risk losing a nomination fight.

His age is definitely going to be an issue for a majority of Dem voters.

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Post election poll- a majority of Dems think Biden should not run for re-election.

I don't think any Dem president has had a majority of his party think he should not run for a 2nd term... this is why all conventional wisdom saying Biden definitely wins the nomination, is not reliable this year.

Also- I can't think of another example where a party didn't want president to run- due to mental capacity issues (Age in Binden's case).

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I strongly think that Biden or Harris ... are the 2 Dems that would lose the upcoming election

Dems need a presidential ticket... entirely from outside of the House and Senate... and under 70.

Best nominee would be NC Gov Roy Cooper, KY Gov Andy Beshear, slight possibility or Mayor Pete (I could see an outside chance of him making a good nominee, but not likely).  

Best VP. Maryland Gov Wes Moore