The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[MarkD]

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said Sunday that he would not support any future nominee for the Supreme Court unless they had publicly stated before their nomination that Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that established federal protection for abortion, was “wrongly decided.”

“I will vote only for those Supreme Court nominees who have explicitly acknowledged that Roe v. Wade is wrongly decided,” Hawley said in an interview with The Washington Post. “By explicitly acknowledged, I mean on the record and before they were nominated.”

Hawley added: “I don’t want private assurances from candidates. I don’t want to hear about their personal views, one way or another. I’m not looking for forecasts about how they may vote in the future or predications. I don’t want any of that. I want to see on the record, as part of their record, that they have acknowledged in some forum that Roe v. Wade, as a legal matter, is wrongly decided.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sen-hawley-lays-down-new-antiabortion-marker-for-supreme-court-nominees/2020/07/26/52ed360a-cf73-11ea-8d32-1ebf4e9d8e0d_story.html

I could see Hawley making this a litmus test in the 2024 primaries, forcing every Republican to take a similar stance.

So he wants activist judges? Hmm, guess it was just always projection on their part.

No, wanting Roe v. Wade to be overturned does not mean wanting "activist judges." It's a pretty mixed-up definition of "activism" to say that it means wanting to overturn precedent. Judicial activism is best defined as judges basing their decisions on their own political or personal considerations rather than existing law. Activism is not best defined by a desire to overturn precedent.

Brown v. Board of Education was a unanimous decision of the Court to overturn a certain precedent on the subject of whether "separate but equal" public facilities would violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. If all nine Justices did overturn Plessy v. Ferguson, does that mean they were all "judicial activists"? One of the nine Justices in Brown was Felix Frankfurter, who was a member of the Court most often remembered for his advocacy of "judicial restraint" (the opposite of activism). The very first year Frankfurter served on the Court, he participated in a Court decision to overturn a precedent, he wrote a concurring opinion, and in that opinion he stated that "the ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it [before]." (See Graves v. New York, 306 U.S. 466, 491-92 (1939).)

Sen. Hawley is correct that Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided and that it should be overturned. Roe was based on the personal beliefs of the seven Justices who decided that case that abortion is constitutionally protected because it ought to be constitutionally protected. It was judicial activism. Overturning it would be judicial restraint.

(I don't 100% agree with Hawley about having this criteria in selecting who should be appointed to the Court. The "ultimate touchstone" of who should be appointed should be based on assessing the appointees' commitment to being an objective interpreter of law, not in assessing whether they will correctly decide cases dealing with just one issue like abortion. What Hawley is suggesting is like me saying that I will only support the appointment of people to the Court if they are committed to upholding the precedent of West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette. Yes, that's a precedent that hopefully will never be overturned, but it is way too short-sighted to insist that being committed to that precedent is the most important thing to consider when I choose who I will vote to confirm for the Supreme Court.)

[MarkD]

Trump on 2024:

https://dailycaller.com/2021/05/04/donald-trump-2024-candace-owens/

“I’m absolutely enthused. I look forward to doing an announcement at the right time,” Trump told The Daily Wire’s Candace Owens about his 2024 election plans. Trump would enter the Republican primary field as a prohibitive favorite if he does run for president again.

“It’s very early, but I think people are going to be very, very happy … when I make a certain announcement,” Trump continued. “For campaign finance reasons, you really can’t do it too early because it becomes a whole different thing. Otherwise, I’d give you an answer that I think you’d be very happy with. So we are looking at that very, very seriously. And all I’ll say is, stay tuned.”

- snip -

Good grief, the man is certifiably nuts. (Well, we already knew that, but based on this, he's proving it even more.)

Some reporter has got to ask him this question: "Sir, you repeatedly claimed that election 2020 was stolen from you, that it was rigged and it had massive election fraud. If the last election was rigged against you, why wouldn't the next election be rigged as well? How can you possibly win since the opposition party still has the means of rigging the system again?"

[MarkD]

Trump on 2024:

https://dailycaller.com/2021/05/04/donald-trump-2024-candace-owens/

“I’m absolutely enthused. I look forward to doing an announcement at the right time,” Trump told The Daily Wire’s Candace Owens about his 2024 election plans. Trump would enter the Republican primary field as a prohibitive favorite if he does run for president again.

“It’s very early, but I think people are going to be very, very happy … when I make a certain announcement,” Trump continued. “For campaign finance reasons, you really can’t do it too early because it becomes a whole different thing. Otherwise, I’d give you an answer that I think you’d be very happy with. So we are looking at that very, very seriously. And all I’ll say is, stay tuned.”

- snip -

Good grief, the man is certifiably nuts. (Well, we already knew that, but based on this, he's proving it even more.)

Some reporter has got to ask him this question: "Sir, you repeatedly claimed that election 2020 was stolen from you, that it was rigged and it had massive election fraud. If the last election was rigged against you, why wouldn't the next election be rigged as well? How can you possibly win since the opposition party still has the means of rigging the system again?"

Not, if GOP wins back the House. Unlikely, that Trump runs, if GOP will not have won it.

Huh? What does the fact of which party controlling the U.S. House of Reps have to do with Trump's perception of whether the next presidential election will be rigged or not? The existing Republican majorities in the state legislatures of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have the means of passing election reforms -- and they then have to get those reforms signed by the respective Governors -- which can mollify Trump's concerns about rigged elections or not. But I don't see whether there is Republican control of the U.S. House or not has anything to do with being able to mollify Trump's concern.

[MarkD]

In what should come as a shock to no one, Business Insider reports that "Cruz's allies are eyeing another presidential run":

https://news.yahoo.com/10-things-politics-cruzworld-eyes-093401898.html

Ted Cruz's allies are eyeing another presidential run. They view the Texas senator as a "formidable candidate" given the extensive network and name recognition he built in 2016 campaign that fell just short of the nomination.

But like everyone else, Cruz's decision isn't his alone: "Trump is his own orbit. If he runs, nobody else runs," said a former Cruz campaign staffer.

The story also lists several people in Cruz's orbit who would likely be involved in a Cruz '24 campaign.

I doubt that Cruz will run for re-election to his Senate seat, despite the fact that Texas law allows him to do so. Also, he supports term limits, and he may be one of the ones who doesn't want to be a hypocrite about it.

[MarkD]

DeSantis goes on Hannity, says he's too busy to be focusing on a Presidential run right now.

“I notice the media, no matter how many times you’ve answered the question about are you considering the run for the presidency in 2024 and you give the same answer, that they still keep asking you,” Hannity said before asking that very same question: “What’s your answer to those people that ask again and again?”

“Yeah, I’m not considering anything beyond doing my job, we got a lot of stuff going on in Florida,” DeSantis asserted, adding that he will be running for re-election as governor next year.

As for what he feels needs his attention in Florida, DeSantis immediately leaned into the culture war issues that have energized conservatives over the past year.

“We are also working on a lot of things in the state beyond the governor’s race, we got school board races,” he declared. “I want to make sure people are not supporting critical race theory!”



After saying he wants to make sure “parents have the ability to send their kids to school the way they want to,” seemingly referencing his court fights over local school mask mandates, DeSantis reiterated that he isn’t focusing his attention on 2024.

“There’s a lot of huge issues, that is way down the road, it’s not anything that I’m planning for,” he concluded.

There is nothing newsworthy or significant about him making a statement like this. Any Governor who is eligible to run for re-election this year, in next year's election, or in 2023 would say the exact same thing about what their intentions are right now. Governors who are term limited and therefore cannot run for re-election between now and 2024 might be more candid that they are seriously looking at a presidential run, but not Governors who are in DeSantis's position.

[MarkD]

Trump in Orlando with Bill O'Reilly hints at 2024 run.

At an event in Orlando, Fla., on Sunday, former President Trump hinted that he may run for office again in 2024, an idea he has publicly teased for months now.

"I said loud and clear,” the former president said, according to the Orlando Sentinel. “We won the first time, and the second time we won by even more. And it looks like we might have to think about very strongly a third time.”

"and the second time we won by even more." Boy, what an understatement. On January 2 of this year, when he called GA SOS Brad Raffensperger and tried to pressure him into changing the GA election result, Trump said, four times, that he won EVERY state. I've listened to a CNN.com recording over and over again, and it is unmistakably clear: Trump's ego is so huge that he convinced himself that he actually won a 50-state sweep, and a 535 to 3 Electoral College victory. While he was talking (and talking, and talking) to Raffensperger, he interrupted himself in the middle of a sentence ...

A lot of the political people said that there's no way they beat me, and they beat me. They, uh, beat me, in the poll -- As you know, every single state. We won every state, we won every statehouse in the country ... [about 8 seconds later] ... But we won every single statehouse, ....

Two days later, he appeared at a campaign rally in Dalton, Georgia, showing his support for Republican Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. The rally lasted an hour and a half. Near the end, he said again, twice this time, that he won every state. "Every single state."

BTW, Bill O'Reilly was the first person I ever saw on TV who made me so mad that I cursed at him. For many years I kept thinking that I would never in my whole life ever turn into the kind of person who would yell at his own TV screen, but O'Reilly did it to me.

[MarkD]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1483810638094811139

Fingers crossed.

??

The implication is that Trump will run as an attempt to escape punishment for his crimes. Either he hopes that his incoherent screams of "political persecution" will somehow bear fruit, or that if he does manage to again gain the ability to abuse the office of the President, he will either be protected by it, or abuse it further in order to quash investigations against him or punish those conducting them. It's a shallow, obviously and reprehensible motive, but Republicans are rather shallow, obvious and reprehensible themselves, so that won't harm his chances any.

Dangit, ... Dangit, ... Dangit!

You make so much sense that I am now going to have to eat my posts I have so often put in this board -- posts to the effect that I don't think Trump is going to run again. I have thought for so long that he wasn't going to run again that I kept on saying, in post after post in this forum, he wouldn't run again. Far too much wishful thinking went in to all those posts, and now I have to eat them all. Yummy. (I ain't going to delete them all, but I am disowning them.)

I sure as heck hope he does get charged and put in trial within the next two years. I won't say that I am sure he deserves to be convicted, but I will say that I HOPE he does get convicted.

[MarkD]

I think I'm pretty similar to Cuban ideologically, but that is not, in itself, a good enough reason for me to support him (if he does decide to run). I need to know about his intentions regarding Supreme Court appointments. What will he do to try to improve the Court?

[MarkD]

Kinzinger on 2024:

https://rollcall.com/2022/02/28/kinzinger-to-keep-fight-against-trumpism-going-after-house-but-hedges-on-2024/

Asked outside the ballroom if he was hinting at a presidential race, he said the super PAC he leads, Country First, has been building support and he wants to “see where that goes.”

“I am excited about continuing the fight for the country. At some point you’ve got to look and say, ‘Is the House the best place to do it?’ I think 12 years in the House is a long time for me. But I don’t intend to give up on the fight for the country,” he said.

Asked if he was definitely not running for president, Kinzinger, who turned 44 on Sunday, replied: “I’m definitely not announcing I’m running for president.”

Cheney/Kinzinger 2024 ticket here we go! Can't wait for them to get 0.6% of the vote, waste hundreds of millions of establishment neolib/neocon dollars and be permanently humiliated.

I really doubt Kinzinger would choose Cheney as his running mate, or any other member of the House. I think he would look at people like Larry Hogan, Charlie Baker, or even Karyn Polito to run with.

[MarkD]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1502812678582059010

This is the 50th time we've gotten the "unofficial campaign announcement". We all know he's gonna run.

1. He has basically said he's running over and over and over again
2. People in contact with him say that he tells everyone he's running in private
3. Everyone who knows him and most GOP politicians are saying he's gonna run
4. He's obsessed with installing governors/secretaries of state/attorney generals in preparation to steal another election, which he would only do if he plans on running again (Trump wouldn't care to steal an election for someone else)
5. He reportedly is getting involved with Senate/congress races to ensure he has a pro-Trump congress for a second term
6. Again, every single time something comes out from behind-the-scenes in Trumpworld, it has to do with Trump doing something to try and increase his chances of running again
7. Trump is still incredibly involved with politics. Trump wouldn't want to be a "kingmaker", as the only thing he cares about is his own power and ego, what could they possibly offer him? Right now his litmus test is being willing to overturn another election, which Trump would only care about if he's running again
8. He's said that the reason he can't announce he's running for President yet is that when he announces he has to abide by campaign laws and the media has to limit his airtime and stuff
9. Trump has been pressuring Republican politicians to declare they won't run against Trump if he runs, DeSantis not doing so is a major reason he's getting on his nerves
10. He's basically said he's running like 10 times already geez how much more do you need?

The media ought to ask him - as often as possible - "Since you have repeatedly said that the last election was stolen from you, how can you be sure that the next one won't be stolen from you as well? How can you possibly win 2024 if you still have massive numbers of enemies determined to make sure you won't win, and they can still distort the election results, just like you claim they did last time?" That question needs to be asked hundreds of times over the next two and a half years.

[MarkD]

Trump speaking in Fort Lauderdale yesterday: “I will be back”:

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3

"With the support of everyone in this room, we will take back the House, we will take back the Senate and we will take back our country, and then most importantly in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House," he said, addressing a crowd of rallygoers at the American Freedom Tour in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

"You had a president that always put America first," Trump said, adding "I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before."
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.
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"We won twice. We did much better the second time, and we may have to do it again," he said.

"We did much better the second time." Yeah, right. He claimed he won every single state the second time.

[MarkD]

Kinzinger on 2024:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/adam-kinzinger-donald-trump-republican-party_n_62589a79e4b0723f80173a6b

“So, I look at it this way,” he began after I asked him about this. What followed was the boilerplate response from someone who’s mulling things behind the scenes: “I’ll make a decision when we get there, if there’s a need and a desire. It’s truly not anything I’m planning right now, but I’m not going to rule it out,” he said, his voice rising in such a way at the end that suggested this was supposed to be the main takeaway. “Look, if we’re in a position, if it’s just terrible candidates and the country’s in a worse place? Maybe. But there’s no grand plan right now.”

I asked Kinzinger whether he wants to run against Trump, who is expected to mount a third campaign for president. “I would love it. I really would,” he said, his eyes instantly widening. “Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is. ... I think it’d be fun.”
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.
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"I don’t know. Maybe I would have run for governor. Maybe I would have run for Senate. Who knows? But yeah, my time in the House is, mercifully, coming to an end,” he said.

Neat. I like Kinzinger a lot, and I'd like to see him "stand up and call out the garbage" and so on.

[MarkD]

- snip -
Meanwhile, Cotton will be in Iowa on July 7th:

https://twitter.com/StoryCountyGOP/status/1531758508818849793

And in a final piece of Iowa news, four potential 2024 GOP presidential candidates have “placed paid ads in the Iowa GOP’s state convention tabloid – which lists the agenda for the state party’s June 11th gathering.”:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/placing-ads-iowa-gop-trump-potential-2024-contenders

The four candidates to do so are Trump, Pompeo, Rick Scott and Tim Scott.

Waitaminute, .....
Because Story County, Iowa, was named after Supreme Court Justice Joseph Story, the county's GOP organization decided that when they hold an annual dinner, they'll commemorate "Judge" Joseph Story by naming the dinner after him?!? Yes, he was one of the GOAT Justices, but still, .....

[MarkD]

Trump declaring before the midterms is just about the best thing that could happen for the Democrats at this point. If he can’t help but make the election about himself that might keep a few wavering Dem voters on board.

I agree, and that the prospect that he'll run again along with the Dobbs decision is going to be a huge motivation for the Democrats. It'll be a push that will be about 95% of the strength of the Dem wave of 2018, and will help Dems keep control of both chambers of Congress.

[MarkD]

Gavin Newsom is running full page ads in Texas newspapers trolling Greg Abbott, a possible 2024 candidate for the Republicans.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is running full-page ads in Texas newspapers Friday trolling Republican Gov. Greg Abbott to highlight a new California gun law modeled on the Lone Star State’s restrictive abortion law.

The ads, first shared with NBC News, will run in the Austin American-Statesman, Houston Chronicle and El Paso Times. They modify an Abbott quote about the state's abortion ban and promote “California’s answer to Texas’ perverse bill.”

“If Texas can ban abortion and endanger lives, California can ban deadly weapons of war and save lives. If Governor Abbott truly wants to protect the right to life, we urge him to follow California’s lead,” the ad reads.

The move is the latest example of Newsom's foray into national politics after buying TV ads in Florida knocking GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis and decrying Democratic timidity while in Washington last week.

I have to admit, in the scenario where Biden doesn't run, a Harris vs Newsom primary would be interesting to watch.

Congratulations, Gov. Newsom, on contributing to, and promoting more, American divisiveness.

[MarkD]

In this interview with GQ, Ocasio-Cortez talks about how she’s skeptical that she could be elected president, in part because “So many people in this country hate women. And they hate women of color.”

https://www.gq.com/story/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-october-cover-profile

Over the course of our conversations, the congresswoman typically answered in a confident, fast-paced patter—each sentence closely chasing the tail of the last. But now her speech slowed to a crawl and, for the first time in the hours we had spent speaking, she broke eye contact, burying her gaze in the arm of her chair. Tears pooled in the corners of her eyes.

“I hold two contradictory things [in mind] at the same time. One is just the relentless belief that anything is possible,” she said. “But at the same time, my experience here has given me a front-row seat to how deeply and unconsciously, as well as consciously, so many people in this country hate women. And they hate women of color. People ask me questions about the future. And realistically, I can’t even tell you if I’m going to be alive in September. And that weighs very heavily on me. And it’s not just the right wing. Misogyny transcends political ideology: left, right, center. This grip of patriarchy affects all of us, not just women; men, as I mentioned before, but also, ideologically, there’s an extraordinary lack of self-awareness in so many places. And so those are two very conflicting things. I admit to sometimes believing that I live in a country that would never let that happen.”

There would be other impediments—obstacles about which Ocasio-Cortez is practical, if not exactly optimistic. “Could Obama have gotten elected without the kind of financial support that he had?” she asked, noting that her opposition to Wall Street would be a major hurdle to any further rise. “I don’t know.” Even were she theoretically to become president, then what? She’d face a system—from the Senate to the Supreme Court—both empowered and inclined to thwart her most sweeping ambitions. “There are still plenty of limitations,” she said, playing out the hypothetical. “It’s tough, it’s really tough.”

"Nobody likes me, everybody hates me. Think I'll go eat worms. ...."

[MarkD]

Sepculation continuing to swirl around Liz Cheney.

Rep. Liz Cheney’s (R-Wyo.) comment that she will not be a Republican if former President Trump wins the party’s 2024 presidential nomination is sparking chatter that she might mount an independent White House run. 

While Cheney lost her House primary to the former president’s endorsed candidate last month, her break with the MAGA wing of the GOP has made her the leader of the anti-Trump movement among Republicans and beyond.


It’s unclear whether Cheney will run in 2024 at all, whether she would run as an independent if she mounted a bid or what impact an independent bid could have on what’s shaping up to be another Trump-focused presidential election. But observers say she’ll continue to be an important figure on the national stage no matter what. 

...

“I’m gonna make sure Donald Trump — I’m gonna do everything I can to make sure he’s not the nominee,” she said during an interview at The Texas Tribune Festival on Saturday.   

“And if he is the nominee, I won’t be a Republican,” she added.   


Additionally, the outgoing congresswoman said that she would be willing to campaign for Democrats ahead of November’s midterm elections.   

Cheney — who has said she’s “thinking about” a presidential run — remains one of the big wild cards ahead of 2024. Though third-party presidential campaigns have historically fallen flat, Cheney’s high profile means an independent bid has the potential to scramble the political calculus as GOP primary voters increasingly nominate hard-right candidates for office, frustrating more moderate Republicans. 

Cheney's career as an elected official is over. She's not going to be able to win any Republican primaries ever again. Even if she were to switch parties and become a Democrat, she wouldn't be able to win a primary on their ticket either.

[MarkD]

Gavin Newsom has told the White House that he won't challenge Biden in 2024.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has won three elections in five years in America’s largest state, is apoplectic about his party’s messaging defects and follows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the right-wing media ecosystem with a zeal that would put some opposition researchers to shame.

But Newsom wants the word to go forth: He’s not going to challenge President Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2024.


“I’ve told everyone in the White House, from the chief of staff to the first lady,” he recounted to me as we sat on the top floor of California’s now-ceremonial governor’s mansion on election night.


His message to Ron Klain and Jill Biden over the summer — when he visited Washington amid growing speculation, and considerable West Wing irritation, that he was plotting a primary challenge — was to count him as a firm supporter of Biden’s reelection: “I’m all in, count me in,” he said he told them.

Newsom relayed the same to Biden himself on election night.

But an announcement like this makes it more likely that Newsom will run if incumbent Pres. Biden does drop out of the race (because of a decline in his health).

[MarkD]

Seems like Rick Scott won’t be running for President next year, as he announced his 2024 Senate re-election campaign today:

https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1618551856283762688?s=46&t=sbQEulMCWjcNQu...

He so much embraced Trump, unlikely he'd challenge the orange buffoon. I just wonder whom he endorses in a Trump-DeSantis matchup (not that it matters).

Glad to see you recognize that endorsements like this are not worth a thimbleful of s*it.

[MarkD]

If I was a betting man, I'd say that LaLawrence J. Hogan Jr. is running for POTUS.

https://twitter.com/GovLarryHogan/status/1620891606634344448

And if I were a betting man, I wouldn't waste one penny on a bet that Hogan has any chance whatsoever at winning the nomination. To dream the impossible dream, ...

[MarkD]

I thought Bolton was already a definite in ........?

[MarkD]

The Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition's Spring Fundraiser is tonight.

Republican White House hopefuls are courting influential religious conservatives at an event in Iowa that marks the unofficial start of the state’s 2024 caucus campaign.

The Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition’s annual spring fundraiser on Saturday evening is attracting, among others, former President Donald Trump, who’s already a candidate, as well as former Vice President Mike Pence and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who are expected to enter the race. Trump is to appear via video. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, considered a top rival to Trump, is not attending.

....

They are among the better known GOP prospects set to address the coalition group during question and answer-style conversations with moderators. Also scheduled to appear are entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, radio host Larry Elder, former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas, former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii and former Michigan gubernatorial candidate Perry Johnson.

"Faith and Freedom Coalition"

Don't faith and freedom kind of contradict each other? Seems like an oxymoronic title.