The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Sir Mohamed]

Here is a general thought: People ruling out a run now means nothing. Elizabeth Warren ruled out a run well into 2018. HRC even in 2014 said she has no plans to run 4 prez.

Buttigieg strikes me a plausible candidate for Harris' running mate in four years, contingent on him becoming UN Ambassador. As much as I like the guy, its hard to see a path forward for him barring a Biden appointment or pulling a Romney and running in another state.

Yup, though Harris may go with a more conventional VP pick in 2024. I always thought Roy Cooper would be a fine VP for her. Popular 2 term gov from a tipping point state who can appeal to some white Southerners. Or Harris goes full female and picks someone like Gretchen Whitmer. Would be interesting, too.

If Butti gets the job as UN Ambassador under Biden, Harris could elevate him to SoS if she wins in 2024 (or Biden himself, in the event he actually runs and gets reelected).

[Sir Mohamed]

That sounds like they may take the SCOTUS nomination in case of Trump's reelection. Not just because he's unlikely to get another opening at the court before the 2020 election, but also because declining the offer for a 2024 run 4 prez is likely not worth it. Hawley and Cruz are smart enough to figure out how unlikely a GOPer is to be will be elected prez after 2 terms of Trump, assuming they even make it to the GOP nomination. Taking a lifetime SCOTUS nomination may just be the better option. Especially for Cruz, who would be extremely vulnerable in his senate seat for 2024. Especially with reelected Trump.

If Trump is defeated, SCOTUS nomination is off the table of course. In this scenario, they will probably run for the WH (again).

[Sir Mohamed]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/chris-christie-trump-2024-presidential-run

Throw on top of this his involvement in the GA senate runoff and his new ad advocating for mask wearing...

Atlas is gonna say he'd make NJ competitive

By Atlas you mean a certain other D-NJ avatar, and maybe some I-GA avatar(s)?

Christie is done and won't go anywhere.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1362194935752110082

My suspicion has always been that he will tease this out until the last moment before ultimately deciding not to run.

That's what several observers have suggested as well and as of now I think the most likely outcome. The big unknown here is still Mr. Trump's potential many legal problems down the road.

[Sir Mohamed]

Please get Mr. Trump behind bars. The dude is poison for the political climate in this country.

[Sir Mohamed]

Prediction: If he runs, Scott isn't going anywhere. Dude has zero charisma and baggage. He got lucky 3 times in FL and may do so again in 2024, but he's just not POTUS material.

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump on whether he’d pick Pence as his running mate again:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-declines-commit-running-pence-024320232.html

"Mike and I have a good relationship, we continue to have a good but it's too early to be discussing running mates certainly," said the former president in an exclusive televised pre-speech interview.

As for whether Trump will in fact run again:

"I'll make a decision in the not too distant future, maybe sooner than people think. And I think they're going to be very happy," said Trump on Saturday evening.

So, Trump's running. I assume he'll pick Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate, as she'd check pretty much every box both Trump and the National GOP would want (woman, fanatically loyal to Trump).

Most likely imho is either Josh Hawley or he changes his registration back to NY or Bedminister, NJ to be able to pick DeSantis. Just like Cheney changed his residence back to WY in 2000. If Trump wants a female VP, is's either Haley or Blackburn.

I still think Mr. Trump won't be able to actually run as tons of legal issues are over his head like a black cloud.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1402033143335555073

As I suggested early, Trump running again would make it more likely for Biden to seek a 2nd term. Still not convinced the former will be able to with potential indictments looming.

[Sir Mohamed]

If the tension has reduced between Trump and Pence, that means Pence has caved in somehow or tried to butter him up. How pathetic.

Was Mr. Pence ever NOT pathetic since signing a pact with the devil in 2016?

[Sir Mohamed]

Pompeo was in Iowa this weekend, and was asked about 2024:

https://www.kcci.com/article/mike-pompeo-visits-iowa-again-doesnt-commit-to-2024-presidential-run/37657095#

Pompeo, however, did not commit to a 2024 run when asked if he's considering it, instead reiterating his goal of helping the GOP win the 2022 midterms.

"I'm very focused on the next 13 months, people start voting really fast here," he said. "We forget how quickly these things come around, when we get through that election, and I pray that conservatives are successful. We'll turn our attention to the next election after that."

He's running unless Mr. Trump is. Not sure how he'd to in a primary, but would be one of the easier opponents for Biden or Harris. The dude is a bland standard right-winger not inspiring anyone with literally no crossover appeal.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wow, big if true:

https://twitter.com/jeffzeleny/status/1441441445097971712

Jay Nixon is running 4 prez...

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm 80% convinced Pence will run no matter what, but he'll end up with the most embarrassing dropout of a sitting or former VP since Patatoe Quayle withdrew in 1999.

[Sir Mohamed]

Some news on Christie:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1458779057663926286

[Sir Mohamed]

The Question is: Does Trump want to put his family through the wringer again?

I don't think he runs.

DeSantis will!

The only member of the Trump family Donald Trump cares about is Donald Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/RickFolbaum/status/1481110981099065344

Trump vs DeSantis race has begun? 

LOL, imagine a Trump-DeSantis primary with Trump as pro-vaccine candidate.

[Sir Mohamed]

Pence again making some waves, not that he's going anywhere.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1536544015587233793

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump not ruling out running on a ticket with DeSantis as VP.

Former President Trump isn’t ruling out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as a running mate in a potential 2024 White House bid.

Asked in an interview with Newsmax’s Rob Finnerty on Thursday about the possibility of a Trump-DeSantis ticket in 2024, Trump noted that he has a good relationship with the Florida governor before taking credit for his political success.


“Well, I get along with him,” Trump said. “I was very responsible for his success, because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship.”

Clearly a move to put down DeSantis, saying "he would be good as my subservient #2".

Never mind the fact if he picked DeSantis, he'd be surrendering Florida's electoral votes, which he really can't afford, given the 2024 Presidential election probably will be close.

This is not necessarily true.  The text of the 12th Amendment says: "The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves..."

Florida will have 30 electoral votes in the 2024 election.  So if the Trump/DeSantis ticket wins, it depends on how many total EV they have:

1) 300 EV or more: this is easy.  The Florida electors vote for Trump for President and someone out of state (let's say Ivanka Trump) for VP.  Trump and DeSantis each get at least 270 EV and are elected.

2) 285-289 EV: still not a problem but requires careful coordination.  Half of the Florida electors vote Trump for President, Ivanka for VP; the other half vote Ivanka for President, DeSantis for VP.  Again they both get at least 270 and are elected.

3) 270-284 EV: this is tricker and breaks down to subcases depending on which party controls each chamber of Congress.  Control of the House here means controlling a majority of state delegations, not an overall majority of members.

(a) Republicans control the Senate (regardless of House control): like case 1, the Florida electors vote Trump for President and Ivanka for VP.  Trump is elected, and the VP race goes to the Senate, which elects DeSantis.

(b) Republicans control a majority of state delegations in the House, but don't control the Senate: This is the inverse of (a).  The Florida electors vote Ivanka for President and DeSantis for VP.  DeSantis is elected, and the presidential race goes to the House, which elects Trump.

(c) Republicans control neither chamber.  This is the only problematic case.  The Florida electors vote Trump/Ivanka, which elects Trump but ends up with the Senate electing the Democratic VP candidate.

So Trump and DeSantis both being from Florida is a problem only if they win with fewer than 285 EV *and* Republicans end up in control of neither the Senate nor a majority of state delegations in the House.

Never thought about this, but why not change his registration back to NY or Bedminster, NJ?

Cheney did something similar in 2000, when has was actually a TX resident prior and officially went back to WY.

[Sir Mohamed]

Re: Newsom: His statements don't mean anything; HRC in 2014 said she's not going to run, as did other candidates a few years before announcing (even Obama in 2005/2006, I believe). Don't see Newsom challenging Biden, though I'm increasingly confident he'll run w/o Biden in the race.

[Sir Mohamed]

Pence at the Iowa State Fair, says a decision on Presidential bid will come any time after January 1.

Former Vice President Mike Pence said that he and his family would decide on a possible run for president “after the first of the year” during a stop at the Iowa State Fair on Friday.

“After the first of the year, my family and I will do as we’ve always done, and that is reflect and pray on where we might next serve, where we might contribute,” Pence said, after being asked if he would run in 2024.

The comment from the typically reserved and scripted Pence seemed to mark a shift from just a few months ago, when allies were talking up a possible spring 2023 launch. But a Pence adviser said Friday not to read too much into Pence’s comment, saying the timeline for a decision hadn’t changed.

Ted Cruz was in Clear Lake, Iowa, headlining a fundraiser for Chuck Grassley.

Conservative firebrand Sen. Ted Cruz will stop in Iowa on Thursday, on a 2022 mission that’s also sure to spark more speculation about a potential 2024 White House run.

The two-term Republican senator from Texas will headline a fundraiser for longtime GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, who’s running for re-election in November’s midterms. Word of the event, which will be held in the northern Iowa city of Clear Lake, was shared first with Fox News on Tuesday.

"My friend and colleague Chuck Grassley is a champion for Iowa and the American people. Chuck understands the importance of securing the southern border and I’m proud to fight with him every day to hold the corrupt and deeply politicized Biden administration accountable on the Judiciary Committee," Cruz said in a statement.

Rick Santorum was at the Iowa State Fair, advocating for a constitutional convention.

Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum will be at the Iowa State Fair  Thursday with the Convention of States Action group.

The Pennsylvania Republican visited Iowa earlier this year with the same group, rallying at the Iowa State Capitol for the state to join calls to convene a constitutional convention to amend the U.S. Constitution. So far, 19 states have passed a resolution to convene, according to the Convention of States website. The constitution requires 34 states to pass resolutions in order to call a convention.

Never in a presidential Republic has a vice-president ran against their boss

Not exactly; John Nance Garner attempted to be nominated at the DNC in 1940, formally challenging FDR. Obviously he didn't succeed and was dropped from the ticket.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden says he’ll decide on 2024 some time after the midterms:

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3649720-biden-says-he-intends-to-run-in-2024-has-not-made-a-firm-decision/

“Look, my intention as I said to begin with is that I would run again,” Biden said in an interview with “60 Minutes” that aired Sunday. “But it’s just an intention. But is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen.”

Ugh, does that leave the door open to not running or is it just that doesn't want to get ahead of himself too soon?

[Sir Mohamed]

Sepculation continuing to swirl around Liz Cheney.

Rep. Liz Cheney’s (R-Wyo.) comment that she will not be a Republican if former President Trump wins the party’s 2024 presidential nomination is sparking chatter that she might mount an independent White House run. 

While Cheney lost her House primary to the former president’s endorsed candidate last month, her break with the MAGA wing of the GOP has made her the leader of the anti-Trump movement among Republicans and beyond.


It’s unclear whether Cheney will run in 2024 at all, whether she would run as an independent if she mounted a bid or what impact an independent bid could have on what’s shaping up to be another Trump-focused presidential election. But observers say she’ll continue to be an important figure on the national stage no matter what. 

...

“I’m gonna make sure Donald Trump — I’m gonna do everything I can to make sure he’s not the nominee,” she said during an interview at The Texas Tribune Festival on Saturday.   

“And if he is the nominee, I won’t be a Republican,” she added.   


Additionally, the outgoing congresswoman said that she would be willing to campaign for Democrats ahead of November’s midterm elections.   

Cheney — who has said she’s “thinking about” a presidential run — remains one of the big wild cards ahead of 2024. Though third-party presidential campaigns have historically fallen flat, Cheney’s high profile means an independent bid has the potential to scramble the political calculus as GOP primary voters increasingly nominate hard-right candidates for office, frustrating more moderate Republicans. 

Cheney's career as an elected official is over. She's not going to be able to win any Republican primaries ever again. Even if she were to switch parties and become a Democrat, she wouldn't be able to win a primary on their ticket either.

Yup. I could see her being appointed to some semi-important ambassador role by Biden or another D-POTUS in the future though. So basically a female version of Jeff Flake.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems like GOP megadonors are lining up behind Mr. DeSantis.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1589382047478550529

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump is floating a third party run if he fails to win the Republican nomination.

Former president Donald Trump has approvingly shared an article on his Truth Social account which argues that he should mount a third-party bid for the presidency if Republicans fail to award him the GOP nomination in the upcoming 2024 election.

On Wednesday, Mr Trump, who last month declared himself a candidate in the 2024 Republican primary, shared an article in the right-wing journal American Greatness on his Truth Social page. The article compares his theoretical third-party run to the 1912 candidacy of Theodore Roosevelt, whose campaign on the “Bull Moose” or “Progressive” party line split the GOP vote and led to William Howard Taft’s defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson.

The author of the editorial, Dan Glernter, writes that the inevitable consequence of a Trump third-party bid would be to hand the 2024 election to the Democratic candidate. Mr Glernter suggests that the result would be justifiable as a punishment for the GOP’s rejection of Mr Trump should he lose the party’s nomination to another candidate.



"The RNC can pretend Trump isn’t loved by the base anymore, that he doesn’t have packed rallies everywhere he goes. But I’m not buying it: Talk to Republican voters anywhere outside the Beltway, and it is obvious that he is admired and even loved by those who consider themselves 'ordinary' Americans,” Mr Glernter wrote, adding that he has “no intention of supporting a Republican Party that manifestly contravenes the desires of its voters”.

He said the same in 2016 to fear GOP elites. If he loses the nomination, I don't think he'll run 3rd party. He either tries to sabotage DeSantis in one way or another, he makes some half-hearted endorsement in exchange for a pardon.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems like Rick Scott won’t be running for President next year, as he announced his 2024 Senate re-election campaign today:

https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1618551856283762688?s=46&t=sbQEulMCWjcNQu...

He so much embraced Trump, unlikely he'd challenge the orange buffoon. I just wonder whom he endorses in a Trump-DeSantis matchup (not that it matters).

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems like Rick Scott won’t be running for President next year, as he announced his 2024 Senate re-election campaign today:

https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1618551856283762688?s=46&t=sbQEulMCWjcNQu...

He so much embraced Trump, unlikely he'd challenge the orange buffoon. I just wonder whom he endorses in a Trump-DeSantis matchup (not that it matters).

Glad to see you recognize that endorsements like this are not worth a thimbleful of s*it.

Most endorsements are irrelevant or barely carry any weight. Clyburn endording Biden right before the SC primary was a rare example of the opposite due to his strong local brand and support among AA voters. Endorsements by Trump or Obama can be important in a primary, but it's really just such names.