The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Progressive Pessimist]

is Afghanistan really a big deal? seems like very few people actually care about this

It was only a big deal when people were watching in horror as the withdrawal happened (even as the majority of Americans approved of the withdrawal. I guess they just didn't like seeing it?) but it's just about all that the GOP can use against him unless they succeed with their debt ceiling hostage situation gambit.

Anyway, it definitely seems like Trump running is as inevitable as it always seemed. He doesn't seem very intimidated by all the mounting legal troubles he is in. And I can't blame him for that. He always weasels his way out of consequences, and is justifiably confident that he can do so again enough to run another campaign in three years.

[Bootes Void]

is Afghanistan really a big deal? seems like very few people actually care about this

It was only a big deal when people were watching in horror as the withdrawal happened (even as the majority of Americans approved of the withdrawal. I guess they just didn't like seeing it?) but it's just about all that the GOP can use against him unless they succeed with their debt ceiling hostage situation gambit.

Anyway, it definitely seems like Trump running is as inevitable as it always seemed. He doesn't seem very intimidated by all the mounting legal troubles he is in. And I can't blame him for that. He always weasels his way out of consequences, and is justifiably confident that he can do so again enough to run another campaign in three years.

Trump can very well run again but he would be one the easier republican opponents although you would put up with alot of his nonsense all over again.

As for debt ceiling, you can just raise it by removing the filibuster for it, why Congressional democrats don't that is beyond me

[NewYorkExpress]

In addition to leaving the Democratic Party, Andrew Yang has started a PAC.

Former U.S. presidential candidate Andrew Yang announced Tuesday the launch of the Forward Party PAC, just one day after he left the Democratic Party.

In a letter shared to the PAC's website, Yang, the founder, insisted he started the Forward Party for "a few big reasons."




"The current two-party duopoly is not working," Yang wrote. "While the two major parties have different issues, we can all see that polarization is getting worse and worse, with 42% of both parties regarding the other as not just mistaken but evil. Neither side is able to meaningfully solve problems, so we all get angrier and angrier."


In the letter, Yang also pointed to data that suggested Americans favor a third political party, but concluded that "the two parties right now control the primary system, which makes it very difficult for any meaningful third party to emerge."

"Imagine a duopoly that prevents any effective competition," Yang wrote. "That’s what we presently have in the United States.

"Changing this is both extraordinarily difficult yet imperative for our future," he added. "We need to push for open primaries and ranked-choice voting in Congressional races around the country. This would both diminish polarization by making it so that our representatives answer to the broad majority rather than the partisan few, and enable new parties and perspectives to emerge. It would make our entire country more reasonable."

I smell a third party run from Yang on the 2024 docket.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump again cites health as a possible reason why he might hypothetically not run for president again:

link

A bit later, however, I gave it another try. “So,” I said, “I know you might do it, but give me one reason you might not do it.”

This time, Trump was somewhat more direct, and a tad fatalistic. “Well, one reason could be your health. You get a call from your doctor and that’s the end of that,” he said. “That stuff happens; you hope it doesn’t. I just had a medical, just had great result. You never know, there are many things can happen; politics is a crazy world. It is a big commitment of you, your children, your wife and your family.”

Trump couldn’t resist delivering his standard line that “people will be very happy with my decision,” adding that his new slogan is “Make America Great Again, Again.”

[Heebie Jeebie]

--deleted--

[Mr. Morden]

Sorry, but I’m wondering if people would be open to posting news items like the last two posts (plus the earlier one about a GOP megadonor not backing Trump anymore) in other threads?  This thread isn’t really intended to be a megathread about absolutely all 2024-related news.  It’s meant to be a thread that covers news that’s directly about whether potential candidates intend to run or not.  That means stuff like the candidates’ public (and leaked private) statements about whether they’ll run, trips to early primary states, the creation of PACs, etc.

While questions about who might endorse which candidates, what kind of rhetorical tack candidates are taking when they talk about issues, how much support they have in polls, etc. will of course have some bearing on who runs, those items aren’t first and foremost about the candidates’ intention to run or not in the same sense.  Including them here makes this thread too cluttered, and will actually result in those other topics getting less attention IMHO.

EDIT: Looks like those posts were deleted and moved elsewhere.  Thanks! 

[NewYorkExpress]

Nikki Haley's giving herself some more wiggle room to run if Trump does.

Nikki Haley changed her tune this week on a possible 2024 presidential bid, saying she will make a decision to run that is not dependent on whether former President Donald Trump has decided to seek another term himself.

Showing just how delicately Republican presidential hopefuls have to dance in the shadow of Trump, the former U.N. ambassador told the Wall Street Journal that the ex-president is a friend whom she’d consult before launching her own White House bid.

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In her interview with the Journal, Haley, a former governor of South Carolina, gave herself more room to launch her own bid for the presidency, regardless of what Trump does.

“In the beginning of 2023, should I decide that there’s a place for me, should I decide that there’s a reason to move, I would pick up the phone and meet with the president,” she said. “I would talk to him and see what his plans are. I would tell him about my plans. We would work on it together.”

[Mr. Morden]

To clarify (for those not paying attention in past cycles) on the legal reasons why Trump isn’t declaring his candidacy yet:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-running-2024-campaign-finance-law-1236413/

Trump very much seems like he is running for president in 2024, which according to campaign finance law should prohibit him from coordinating with super PACs like MAGAA, or his leadership PAC Save America, which together brought in north of $80 million in the first half of this year. Trump is able to coordinate with those PACs, though — and use their money to finance his travel, his campaign-style rallies, his God knows what else — because he hasn’t yet officially declared his candidacy. The former president is then, in essence, running what appears to be a shadow campaign designed to skirt campaign finance regulations while holding the still-distant race for the Republican nomination hostage.
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It’s worth mentioning that what Trump is doing here is nothing new. Penniman notes how Jeb Bush raised tens of millions of dollars for an allied super PAC before officially declaring his candidacy in 2015. Craig Holman, government affairs lobbyist for Public Citizen, cites how Marco Rubio went on a book tour through early primary states before declaring his candidacy the same year. “The problem is the lack of contribution limits and the lack of a ban on corporate and union money,” Holman says of the financial leeway potential candidates have before they declare. “They can accept unlimited funds for their super PACs or any electioneering nonprofit group that they’ve set up. They can accept corporate money to fly out on a book tour that’s really nothing more than a campaign rally.”

[StateBoiler]

Trump says he’s confident of winning the nomination if he runs:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/03/trump-desantis-2024-beat-him-514975

In an interview with Yahoo Finance set to be published Monday, Trump said he believed that “most people would drop out” if he entered the race, including DeSantis, an ally of the former president who has been considered a potential candidate in the Republican presidential primary.

“If I faced him, I'd beat him like I would beat everyone else,” Trump said.
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In the interview, Trump expressed confidence in his ability to easily clinch the nomination should he run, citing his support among the Republican base, but said he was not yet ready to commit to doing so.

“If I do run, I think that I’ll do extremely well,” he said, adding that he based his predictions on both polling and “enthusiasm” from voters.

I mean, his take is probably not untrue...

I don't expect Trump to say will he or won't he until he starts hitting primary ballot access deadlines, which is when, Q4 2023? This is going to paralyze everyone else as far as fundraising unless you're a Larry Hogan that would run anyway.

If I were Biden, I'd be thrilled by this.  

Problem is he's going to hamstring the Democratic nomination race as well because due to his age as well as how he got the 2020 nomination to start with there's a more natural will he or won't he? I'm not saying certain either way what he's doing in 2024, but I think it's definitely closer to 50/50 than it is 100/0 or 0/100. If he's not going to run it's going to be a "late" decision, late being probably Q3 or Q4 2023. There's also political calculus here. If you're Kamala Harris and you want to run for president, you would rather Joe Biden announce this later rather than earlier becaues it does not allow any formidable challengers from the rest of the Democratic Party to build up resources. Whether Biden if he decides not to run chooses to go along with that, who knows. Likely depends on how chummy the president/VP relationship is post-midterms.

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Scott is headed to New Hampshire tomorrow, with events scheduled for both tomorrow and Saturday:

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-sen-tim-scott-to-push-for-gop-unity-slam-democratic-budget-plan-in-nh-visit/37889851#

[Mr. Morden]

New story on Pence-world:

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation-politics/in-weighing-2024-run-pence-tests-whether-there-is-political-life-after-trump/

Nine months after the Jan. 6 insurrection and his subsequent departure from the White House, Pence’s friends and advisers say he is likely to run for president — especially if Trump does not. He is taking all the traditional steps to position himself for a 2024 presidential bid — hopscotching the country giving six-figure speeches, sitting down for interviews with friendly conservative media outlets and hosting fundraisers for Republican candidates and causes.

Pence, 62, is being helped by a stable of fans — including many from his years as a stalwart evangelical figure — who say he can offer a path forward for the Republican Party rooted in the cultural and fiscal conservatism of its past, according to numerous allies and advisers, most of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
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Several longtime Pence allies say the former vice president is more ambitious and ruthless than many realize. Before he makes any final decision, one adviser said, Pence and his wife, Karen, will probably take time away and pray on the decision, asking whether God is calling on them to serve again.

The story also describes the book that Pence is currently writing:

The book Pence is currently writing will be a memoir, starting with his childhood but stretching through his time in the Trump administration. He will also address Jan. 6 and the weeks leading up to it, offering his most comprehensive description of the attacks, according to an adviser.

[Frodo]

It is curious that Trump's former top advisor thinks he doesn't want a rematch against President Biden.  Perhaps because it is harder to run against Biden when he is the incumbent:

Trump Will 'Ultimately' Run in 2024 but Not Against Biden, Former Adviser Predicts

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1446801867866918915

[StateBoiler]

Punchbowl News' poll of senior Capitol Hill aides from both parties

Democratic staffers' most likely 2024 nominee if Biden does not run for reelection:

Kamala Harris 58% (down 22% from last survey)
Pete Buttigieg 14%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Other 17%

Republican staffers on their most likely 2024 nominee:

Ron DeSantis 45% (down 17% from last survey)
Donald Trump 33%
Nikki Haley 3%
Tom Cotton 2%
Ted Cruz 2%
Mike Pence 2%
Mike Pompeo 2%

[StateBoiler]

It is curious that Trump's former top advisor thinks he doesn't want a rematch against President Biden.  Perhaps because it is harder to run against Biden when he is the incumbent:

Trump Will 'Ultimately' Run in 2024 but Not Against Biden, Former Adviser Predicts

That frankly sounds like trying to influence what the other party does to benefit yourself.

[President Johnson]

It is curious that Trump's former top advisor thinks he doesn't want a rematch against President Biden.  Perhaps because it is harder to run against Biden when he is the incumbent:

Trump Will 'Ultimately' Run in 2024 but Not Against Biden, Former Adviser Predicts

Donny is afraid of Uncle Joe. He beat him once, as the challenger already. Even Trump knows that.

[NewYorkExpress]

DeSantis will be in San Francisco on October 22, as part of a fundraiser hosted by former PayPal executive David Sacks.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has become a 2024 Republican Party presidential front-runner thanks to his hands-off approach to handling the COVID-19 pandemic, is set to visit San Francisco — arguably the nation's most restrictive city during the pandemic — for a fundraiser this month.


The Oct. 22 fundraiser is hosted by former PayPal executive David Sacks, who tweeted of the event, "It will be fun night." Tickets to attend the cocktail reception cost $2,500, and photo opportunities with the governor cost $7,000. Dinner with DeSantis is set to cost a whopping $25,000.

I'm not sure why DeSantis is fundraising in California for a reelection campaign, so it looks like he is seriously interested in running for President in 2024.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson "won't rule out" a Presidential campaign, has been researching how it would operate.

https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/576528-dwayne-johnson-wont-rule-out-presidential-bid

[Progressive Pessimist]

Punchbowl News' poll of senior Capitol Hill aides from both parties

Democratic staffers' most likely 2024 nominee if Biden does not run for reelection:

Kamala Harris 58% (down 22% from last survey)
Pete Buttigieg 14%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Other 17%

Republican staffers on their most likely 2024 nominee:

Ron DeSantis 45% (down 17% from last survey)
Donald Trump 33%
Nikki Haley 3%
Tom Cotton 2%
Ted Cruz 2%
Mike Pence 2%
Mike Pompeo 2%

Trump is not going to like that.

[StateBoiler]

Punchbowl News' poll of senior Capitol Hill aides from both parties

Democratic staffers' most likely 2024 nominee if Biden does not run for reelection:

Kamala Harris 58% (down 22% from last survey)
Pete Buttigieg 14%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Other 17%

Republican staffers on their most likely 2024 nominee:

Ron DeSantis 45% (down 17% from last survey)
Donald Trump 33%
Nikki Haley 3%
Tom Cotton 2%
Ted Cruz 2%
Mike Pence 2%
Mike Pompeo 2%

Trump is not going to like that.

I think it's more a "will he run or will he not run" instead of a "DeSantis beats Trump in a primary" scenario.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Punchbowl News' poll of senior Capitol Hill aides from both parties

Democratic staffers' most likely 2024 nominee if Biden does not run for reelection:

Kamala Harris 58% (down 22% from last survey)
Pete Buttigieg 14%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Other 17%

Republican staffers on their most likely 2024 nominee:

Ron DeSantis 45% (down 17% from last survey)
Donald Trump 33%
Nikki Haley 3%
Tom Cotton 2%
Ted Cruz 2%
Mike Pence 2%
Mike Pompeo 2%

Trump is not going to like that.

I think it's more a "will he run or will he not run" instead of a "DeSantis beats Trump in a primary" scenario.

Yeah, I know. I can dream though because that scenario would be brilliant and might even involve a pissed off Trump launching a third party.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It is curious that Trump's former top advisor thinks he doesn't want a rematch against President Biden.  Perhaps because it is harder to run against Biden when he is the incumbent:

Trump Will 'Ultimately' Run in 2024 but Not Against Biden, Former Adviser Predicts

Donny is afraid of Uncle Joe. He beat him once, as the challenger already. Even Trump knows that.

That's why he is called Teflon Joe. Biden only knows how to win.

[Not Me, Us]

It is curious that Trump's former top advisor thinks he doesn't want a rematch against President Biden.  Perhaps because it is harder to run against Biden when he is the incumbent:

Trump Will 'Ultimately' Run in 2024 but Not Against Biden, Former Adviser Predicts

Donny is afraid of Uncle Joe. He beat him once, as the challenger already. Even Trump knows that.

That's why he is called Teflon Joe. Biden only knows how to win.

Except when it comes to actually implementing his agenda.

[AltWorlder]

Do rumors of disgruntled donors count?

https://twitter.com/dsamuelsohn/status/1451230847911219204
https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1451209576280477706

[NewYorkExpress]

Do rumors of disgruntled donors count?

https://twitter.com/dsamuelsohn/status/1451230847911219204
https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1451209576280477706

It's kind of moot, unless Biden announces relatively soon that he isn't running for reelection.