The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/04/rick-scott-maga-473548

Rick Scott, despite embracing MAGA, is failing to gain traction

He reminds me a lot of Scott Walker. A far right governor of a swing state that keeps winning state elections and gets a lot of media attention, but the national rank and file just don't care for.

Is Scott really getting a lot of media attention? All I’ve seen is DeSantis and to a lesser extent Rubio.

[Mr. Morden]

Despite having done several early primary state visits last year, Noem has said a few times that she’s not going to run for president in 2024.  However, she was asked again yesterday about her 2024 plans and ignored the question this time, only saying that she intends to run for reelection for governor in 2022:

https://www.keloland.com/news/politics/gov-noem-doesnt-deny-a-2024-presidential-bid-but-confirms-shes-running-for-re-election-in-2022/

[Mr. Morden]

Crenshaw:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/541663-crenshaw-pours-cold-water-on-2024-presidential-bid-something-will-emerge?rl=1

Crenshaw, who was first elected to a Houston-area House seat in 2018, did not definitively reject a presidential campaign, telling radio host Hugh Hewitt he’s “pretty much” ruling it out.

“I don’t know. It’s not tempting. It’s also four years away. I think we’re tripping all over ourselves trying to figure out who’s going to be on the ticket in four years,” he said.

“I think everybody needs to chill just a little bit and let it happen as it will, because then something will emerge,” he added. “But yeah, I would say pretty much, pretty much ruled it out.”

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1368927726049124354

[Sir Mohamed]

Prediction: If he runs, Scott isn't going anywhere. Dude has zero charisma and baggage. He got lucky 3 times in FL and may do so again in 2024, but he's just not POTUS material.

[beesley]

Prediction: If he runs, Scott isn't going anywhere. Dude has zero charisma and baggage. He got lucky 3 times in FL and may do so again in 2024, but he's just not POTUS material.

Don't forget Scott only won in 2010 because he bought the primary. As soon as voters paid more attention, McCollum gained in popularity. As you say, he got lucky another two times, but he can't do that nationally.

Besides, DeSantis is not only a stronger candidate, but a better governor, and would make a stronger President(ial candidate) too.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence headed to South Carolina:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/pence-to-give-speech-in-south-carolina-his-first-since-leaving-office-1.5337928

In his first public address since the end of the Trump administration, former Vice-President Mike Pence is travelling to South Carolina, set to speak to a conservative Christian non-profit in the state that plays a crucial role in the presidential nominating process.

Next month, Pence will keynote a dinner hosted by the Palmetto Family Council, a Pence aide told The Associated Press on Sunday. The aide spoke on the condition of anonymity due to a lack of permission to discuss the plans publicly.

[Mr. Morden]

DeSantis says that it’s “premature” to talk about 2024, and that he’s “focused” on his 2022 reelection:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/410024-premature

The Governor did not rule out a presidential bid in 2024, in what was a heavily edited interview with the Fox News mainstay, though semantics offered a hint to DeSantis’ long-range thoughts.

When asked if he, like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, was willing to declare an interest in a White House run, DeSantis told Kilmeade that he “wouldn’t say that” because it was “so premature to even have the discussion.”

The Governor described himself as “focused on” his 2022 reelection.

“We’re in 2021. We’re going to have a reelection in 2022. That’s kind of what I’m focused on,” DeSantis noted.

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo headed to Iowa:

https://twitter.com/IAFieldReport/status/1369397631953289217

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo not ruling out a 2024 run for prez:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pompeo-2024-presidential-run-up-for-fight

When MacCallum pressed Pompeo about a potential presidential bid if former President Donald Trump does not seek office in 2024, Pompeo responded, "it’s way too early to tell.

"I'm very focused here on what we’re doing in the near term. I'm always up for a good fight. I want to make sure the ideas I've been working on for a good part of my adult life are the ones that are advanced here in the United States of America, not those being imposed on the United States by this administration."

Pundits have speculated over Pompeo's national ambitions since leaving his post as the nation's top diplomat. When MacCallum said she wouldn't take his response as a "a no, but not a yes," Pompeo chuckled but did not respond.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Meghan Markle "seriously considering" a run, allegedly networking with senior Democratic fundraisers:

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1370904183491198984

[Roll Roons]

Hey, remember that war we fought in 1776 because we didn't want to be ruled by British royals?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Hey, remember that war we fought in 1776 because we didn't want to be ruled by British royals?

The future is now, old man.

[brucejoel99]

Were she to run without formally renouncing "Duchess of Sussex," that'd trigger a potential constitutional question.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Were she to run without formally renouncing "Duchess of Sussex," that'd trigger a potential constitutional question.

Not much of a question, it's unconstitutional for her to serve as president while technically a British royal.

Also, she isn't going to run and this tweet is the only time we'll ever hear her name in connection with the race, lmao

[KaiserDave]

She's not running, but if she did I would actively campaign against her in any way I could.

[brucejoel99]

Were she to run without formally renouncing "Duchess of Sussex," that'd trigger a potential constitutional question.

Not much of a question, it's unconstitutional for her to serve as president while technically a British royal.

It actually would be, given the specific wording of the Foreign Emoluments Clause: it provides that "no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under [the United States], shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any... Title, of any kind whatever, from any King," ​but she technically wasn't a federal officeholder at the time that she actually accepted her title from Queen Elizabeth, hence the potential for an open constitutional question here. (Gotta love textualism!)

[Mr. Morden]

A roundup of early primary state happenings here:

https://foxwilmington.com/politics/pompeo-haley-and-paul-early-moves-spark-2024-speculation/

Mike Pompeo: Just a few days after Pompeo visits Iowa, he’ll give a remote address to a New Hampshire-based virtual fundraiser.

Nikki Haley: Haley’s PAC is making its first endorsement of the 2022 cycle, and it’s an endorsement of Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa.

Rand Paul: Paul’s PAC is sending an “anti-election fraud” mailer to GOP voters in New Hampshire that prominently features his name and picture.

[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul: Paul’s PAC is sending an “anti-election fraud” mailer to GOP voters in New Hampshire that prominently features his name and picture.

OK, from this story, it sounds like these mailers are going to state legislators rather than voters, and NH is just one of many states it's going to:

https://www.wmur.com/article/pro-rand-paul-pac-sending-election-integrity-mailer-to-every-gop-lawmaker-in-the-us-including-nh/35856318#

A spokesman for the PAC claims the mailer is not about 2024, though it’s up to you to decide whether you believe that or not:

"This project is not about 2022 or 2024, it’s not about one party, or a specific agenda. It’s about insuring the voters have full faith in our election,” Biundo said.

[Torrain]

Rand Paul: Paul’s PAC is sending an “anti-election fraud” mailer to GOP voters in New Hampshire that prominently features his name and picture.

OK, from this story, it sounds like these mailers are going to state legislators rather than voters, and NH is just one of many states it's going to:

https://www.wmur.com/article/pro-rand-paul-pac-sending-election-integrity-mailer-to-every-gop-lawmaker-in-the-us-including-nh/35856318#

A spokesman for the PAC claims the mailer is not about 2024, though it’s up to you to decide whether you believe that or not:

"This project is not about 2022 or 2024, it’s not about one party, or a specific agenda. It’s about insuring the voters have full faith in our election,” Biundo said.

Huh, that's interesting.

It's certainly a way to increase your name recognition among NH state reps/senators, who could be big in the endorsement game in 2024.

Hard to see Paul gaining traction over the MAGA governors, cabinet members or Trump himself, though.

[Canis]

It's looking like both senators and Floridas governor are planning on running in 2024 With Carlson and Trump also potential candidates the FL GOP primary could have 5 different candidates from the state competing against each other Rubio Vs Scott vs DeSantis Vs Carlson vs Trump. If Trump runs hed very likely win it without him running id say Desantis would be favored.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump on 2024:

https://floridianpress.com/2021/03/trump-considering-potential-2024-presidential-run-if-gop-reclaims-both-house-and-senate-in-2022/

“Based on every poll, they want me to run again but we’re going to take a look and we’ll see,” Trump told Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo in a rare wide-ranging interview Tuesday evening. “First steps first, we have to see what we can do with the House.”

People are interpreting the “First steps first, we have to see what we can do with the House” as a sign that he’s ruling out declaring his candidacy until after the midterms.  I guess I can see that, but it seems ambiguous.  Could just be read as the obvious point that the ’22 midterm elections come before the next presidential election, not a hint on the timing of his campaign.

This isn’t to say that I’d count him likely to launch a campaign before the midterms even without this comment.  Just thought I’d mention it.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1373067785035726850

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's looking like both senators and Floridas governor are planning on running in 2024 With Carlson and Trump also potential candidates the FL GOP primary could have 5 different candidates from the state competing against each other Rubio Vs Scott vs DeSantis Vs Carlson vs Trump. If Trump runs hed very likely win it without him running id say Desantis would be favored.

I still think DeSantis is a paper tiger but I do have to admit that, as a Trumpian grievance politician who's governed as a relative moderate except--and this is key--on the COVID-derived culture war battles, he's probably much better-positioned than Rubio or Voldemort within the current GOP coalition.

[Mr. Morden]

The Hill has a story saying that those around Biden claim to be more confident now than months ago that Biden will run again, though it doesn’t seem to be based on very much.  E.g., one “Biden ally” says he assumes that Biden will run again because he hasn’t said otherwise (when that could just mean that he hasn’t decided yet).

The article also notes that it’s still really early, so he doesn’t really need to have decided yet, and that those in Biden's orbit say that, so far, "no one is thinking about a second presidential bid":

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/544622-biden-sees-himself-as-a-two-term-president?rl=1

Now more than ever, those around [Biden] say he’ll make another bid for the presidency. 

“I don’t think there’s any reason to say that he won’t,” said one longtime adviser to the president. 

Another Biden ally added that Biden hasn’t told associates that he wouldn’t be running again.

“So we all assume that he is,” the ally said, “contrary to this sentiment that he’ll be a one-term president because of his own volition.”
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It’s two years until the start of primary season, and those close to the campaigner in chief stress that no one is thinking about a second presidential bid. 

“He hasn’t even fully staffed up the White House yet,” the adviser said. “There’s a lot to do before he even reaches the point where he has to make a final decision.”