The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[tosk]

https://www.rawstory.com/josh-hawley-not-running-president/

Looks like Hawley's not running? We'll see how long this lasts, but I could see this happening due to him trying to be re-elected as senator of Missouri.

if he's still denying by this time next year and hasn't shifted to "thinking about it" or "considering" i'll be very surprised.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.rawstory.com/josh-hawley-not-running-president/

Looks like Hawley's not running?

That's not new.  He's been saying that at least since November:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=348884.msg7719193#msg7719193

Noem also says she's not running, but she spent much of 2020 visiting early primary states, so I don't believe her.  Hawley has *not* been visiting early primary states, so maybe he's telling the truth, but it's still kind of early to be putting much stock in anyone's denials.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.rawstory.com/josh-hawley-not-running-president/

Looks like Hawley's not running?

That's not new.

Ain't that the truth:

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1354196449324638208

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

https://www.rawstory.com/josh-hawley-not-running-president/

Looks like Hawley's not running? We'll see how long this lasts, but I could see this happening due to him trying to be re-elected as senator of Missouri.

Obama, Warren, and Booker also said they would not run for president in 2006, 2018, and 2018 respectively.

[Mr. Morden]

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2021/01/27/hawley-answers-whether-hes-planning-a-2024-presidential-run-n2583777

"I've always said…that I'm not running for president," Hawley told Fox News. "It's a privilege to represent the state of Missouri in the United States Senate. I just got elected barely two years ago. There's a lot of work to do, and I look forward to continuing to fight for Missouri every day that I can."

This isn't really Shermanesque, since "I'm not running" is present tense, and doesn't rule out the possibility of running in a couple of years.

[Mr. Morden]

Pompeo:

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/536023-pompeo-to-join-conservative-think-tank-hudson-institute?rl=1

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is taking a role at the conservative Hudson Institute, providing him a platform to remain involved in policy discussions ahead of a possible 2024 presidential bid.

The institute said in a statement that Pompeo will come on as a distinguished fellow.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio on 2024: “I haven’t made a decision yet.”  Says he doesn’t know if he’s running for prez, and if Trump runs “it would be a factor”, but wouldn’t necessarily preclude him running as well:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/398504-potential-donald-trump-challenges-shadow-marco-rubios-next-move

“Donald Trump is the most prominent, the most influential Republican in the country. Anyone who’s running for President, and I haven’t made a decision yet, I have an election in 2022, as a Republican would have to take into account that the most prominent, most well-known Republican in the country would run again,” Rubio said. “Of course it would be a factor.”

“It would make a difference for anybody. It would certainly be a factor. But I’m not going to get into the political gamesmanship,” Rubio said.

On the other hand, in a separate interview, he said that running for Senate is a “six year contract”.  Which, if we’re taking him seriously on that, would seem to preclude a 2024 presidential run:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/399140-six-year-contract-rubio

“Oh, I’m running for reelection,” Rubio assured Hewitt, who was worried Rubio would not in light of the decision of Ohio Sen. Rob Portman to stand down next year.

“I’ll tell you this: When you’re running for reelection in the Senate, you’re signing a six-year contract. Which means that for the next six years of your life, you’re committing to doing this job.”

[Roll Roons]

Rubio on 2024: “I haven’t made a decision yet.”  Says he doesn’t know if he’s running for prez, and if Trump runs “it would be a factor”, but wouldn’t necessarily preclude him running as well:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/398504-potential-donald-trump-challenges-shadow-marco-rubios-next-move

“Donald Trump is the most prominent, the most influential Republican in the country. Anyone who’s running for President, and I haven’t made a decision yet, I have an election in 2022, as a Republican would have to take into account that the most prominent, most well-known Republican in the country would run again,” Rubio said. “Of course it would be a factor.”

“It would make a difference for anybody. It would certainly be a factor. But I’m not going to get into the political gamesmanship,” Rubio said.

On the other hand, in a separate interview, he said that running for Senate is a “six year contract”.  Which, if we’re taking him seriously on that, would seem to preclude a 2024 presidential run:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/399140-six-year-contract-rubio

“Oh, I’m running for reelection,” Rubio assured Hewitt, who was worried Rubio would not in light of the decision of Ohio Sen. Rob Portman to stand down next year.

“I’ll tell you this: When you’re running for reelection in the Senate, you’re signing a six-year contract. Which means that for the next six years of your life, you’re committing to doing this job.”

I'd still take any statements made this early with a huge grain of salt.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Posting this because 'helping others get elected' in the midterms is a staple of the pre-presidential campaign season

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1354895750224818185

[Flyersfan232]

There's no way Pompeo gets the nomination. He doesn't have the gravitas to win over Trumpists, but he's to Trump-y to win over moderates. He doesn't have a lane. He should have run for Senate last year.

governor

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio on 2024: “I haven’t made a decision yet.”  Says he doesn’t know if he’s running for prez, and if Trump runs “it would be a factor”, but wouldn’t necessarily preclude him running as well:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/398504-potential-donald-trump-challenges-shadow-marco-rubios-next-move

“Donald Trump is the most prominent, the most influential Republican in the country. Anyone who’s running for President, and I haven’t made a decision yet, I have an election in 2022, as a Republican would have to take into account that the most prominent, most well-known Republican in the country would run again,” Rubio said. “Of course it would be a factor.”

“It would make a difference for anybody. It would certainly be a factor. But I’m not going to get into the political gamesmanship,” Rubio said.

On the other hand, in a separate interview, he said that running for Senate is a “six year contract”.  Which, if we’re taking him seriously on that, would seem to preclude a 2024 presidential run:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/399140-six-year-contract-rubio

“Oh, I’m running for reelection,” Rubio assured Hewitt, who was worried Rubio would not in light of the decision of Ohio Sen. Rob Portman to stand down next year.

“I’ll tell you this: When you’re running for reelection in the Senate, you’re signing a six-year contract. Which means that for the next six years of your life, you’re committing to doing this job.”

I'd still take any statements made this early with a huge grain of salt.

At this point, I’d say that a denial definitely doesn’t mean that the candidate in question has ruled it out, or even that they’re leaning against it.

However, the reverse is *not* true.  Some potential candidates, like Christie and Rubio, are ruling it *in*, saying that a 2024 presidential run is something that they might very well go ahead with.  In those cases, I would indeed take that as a sign that they’re seriously considering it, as the vast majority of politicians are not going to float a presidential run if they’re not really thinking about it.

[Mr. Morden]

RNC “spring donor meeting” will happen in Palm Beach on April 9-11:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/28/rnc-trump-spring-meeting-463574

Trump is invited to attend, and “The RNC is also expected to invite other potential 2024 candidates”, but no other names have come out yet.

[Roll Roons]

Adam Kinzinger is starting a new organization called Country First:
https://www.country1st.com/

I wonder if he could be worth watching as a possible dark horse contender.

[Not Me, Us]

Adam Kinzinger is starting a new organization called Country First:
https://www.country1st.com/

I wonder if he could be worth watching as a possible dark horse contender.

He has absolutely no chance in the primary or the general.

[Coldstream]

Adam Kinzinger is starting a new organization called Country First:
https://www.country1st.com/

I wonder if he could be worth watching as a possible dark horse contender.

He has absolutely no chance in the primary or the general.

Maybe, but it’s not like he has anything to lose. And he’ll only have a chance - slim as it may be - to shift the Overton window back to his kind of politics by running.

[President Johnson]

https://www.rawstory.com/josh-hawley-not-running-president/

Looks like Hawley's not running? We'll see how long this lasts, but I could see this happening due to him trying to be re-elected as senator of Missouri.

Obama, Warren, and Booker also said they would not run for president in 2006, 2018, and 2018 respectively.

Hillary said it as late as 2014.

[Not Me, Us]

Adam Kinzinger is starting a new organization called Country First:
https://www.country1st.com/

I wonder if he could be worth watching as a possible dark horse contender.

He has absolutely no chance in the primary or the general.

Maybe, but it’s not like he has anything to lose. And he’ll only have a chance - slim as it may be - to shift the Overton window back to his kind of politics by running.

I mean, he's fairly young and in a safe House district. Unless he gets screwed in redistricting, it'd be a way better career move to stay, rack up seniority in the House, and eventually chair a powerful committee. He'd have a lot more influence doing that than a suicidal presidential run.

[Chips]

https://www.rawstory.com/josh-hawley-not-running-president/

Looks like Hawley's not running? We'll see how long this lasts, but I could see this happening due to him trying to be re-elected as senator of Missouri.

I hope this is true.

[terkeypie]

I think Cruz, Pompeo and Pence are all good bets to throw their hat into the ring come 2024

[Mr. Morden]

Pence’s immediate plans:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/pence-plans-form-political-group-he-moves-beyond-time-trump-n1256259

Within the next month, he is likely to announce the formation of a nonprofit social welfare organization to amplify his positions on a “consistent conservative philosophy,” as one person familiar with the plan described it. Such groups, known as 501(c)(4) nonprofits, can be active on political issues but are not allowed to engage in campaigning, and they can attract millions of dollars by keeping their donors secret.

Starting his own group would give Pence a foothold in the fundraising world, allowing him to maintain relationships with donors in case he decides to run for president in 2024.

Pence is not expected to make an announcement about his own future campaigns until after the 2022 midterms, and advisers caution he has not made a final decision about whether to run.

Pence may write a book. And he’s expected to hit the campaign trail ahead of the 2022 races to support Republican candidates, particularly in gubernatorial races.

[AltWorlder]

Adam Kinzinger is starting a new organization called Country First:
https://www.country1st.com/

I wonder if he could be worth watching as a possible dark horse contender.

Someone needs to compile a list of all the failed Unity08 type bipartisan independent candidate efforts. Go join the Alliance Party if your really want a milquetoast centrist candidate, at least that one is built off existing organizations.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Ben Carson is launching a think tank, the American Cornerstone Institute.

It "will focus on a 'diverse set of issues,' including addressing homelessness, affordability and crime in American cities, holding leaders in Washington, D.C., accountable and renewing a focus on education."

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ben-carson-think-tank-american-cornerstone-institute-cabinet

[Mr. Morden]

Hawley’s voted against every Biden cabinet nominee, but denies that that’s a sign he’s going to run for president:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/04/josh-hawley-2024-465756

“All I can say is no,” Hawley said in an interview on Wednesday, denying he has an overarching plan to oppose Biden’s nominees. “What can I say? That’s clearly not my focus.”

But aside from Hawley’s allies, no one familiar with presidential politics or the U.S. Senate is taking the 41-year-old at his word — especially after several Democratic senators used their opposition to early Trump appointees as a springboard to 2020.

Also:

Hawley is becoming more of a regular on Fox News, the most-watched cable channel for Republican primary voters, and his fundraising has kept pace with his growing national profile. Negative news media coverage and the Democrats’ ethics investigation of him and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for their roles leading up to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot has served to stoke his coffers: A memo sent to donors this week said he raised nearly $1 million in January, touted his popularity in the state and argued his electoral objections were popular in Missouri.

[Roll Roons]

What even is Hawley's appeal?

[Bootes Void]

What even is Hawley's appeal?

Couple months ago people were talking about him being a populist but that obsviously nonsense. Anyways he is basically appealing to the republican #resistance crowd if that makes sense