The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[brucejoel99]

So Biden's first 2 domestic presidential trips will conveniently take place in 2 of the 5 most important swing states. Hmmm:

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1361360681908453379

[brucejoel99]

Trump  Jr

Kamala Harris

nikki haley

Josh Hawley

Ted Cruz

Ron Desantis

Welcome to the Forum! FYI, though, this is just a news megathread, not a "guess who's running" megathread. That's what basically every other thread on the 2024 board is for (for the time being, anyway).

[brucejoel99]

So Biden's first 2 domestic presidential trips will conveniently take place in 2 of the 5 most important swing states. Hmmm:

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1361360681908453379

UPDATE - It was the White House which was specifically focused on going to the Midwest. In other words, you can't convince me the man doesn't run for re-election if he thinks he's able to:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2021/02/15/pabst-theater-prepares-joe-bidens-tuesday-cnn-town-hall/4483143001/

The event will be socially distanced, with the president fielding questions from a small, invitation-only audience of Democrats, Republicans and independents. Anderson Cooper will serve as moderator. It's scheduled to run for an hour. …

Mark Preston, CNN's vice president of political special event programming, said the network approached the Biden team after the election to see if the president would want to discuss his agenda. Preston said the White House was interested in doing an event in the Midwest and mentioned several cities, including Milwaukee.

"Milwaukee is a great city to work in," Preston said. "People are very easy to work with, they're smart and know the issues. It reminds me of home. I'm from Boston."  … "We're definitely blessed that we have the president at this time in history willing to come out and take questions right now," Preston said. "We just got over the second impeachment trial of the former president. COVID is on the decline ... the economy is a mess."

[brucejoel99]

I'm sure the Republicans in the Senate who voted to acquit Trump are going to be thrilled to find out his political career isn't even close to being finished. This was always going to happen, and it's going to be an absolutely brutal election cycle.

Inb4 Ted Cruz runs for President anyway and reverts back to his 2016 primary rhetoric on Trump

Bonus points if he finds a way to somehow blame his support for Trump since on his daughters.

[brucejoel99]

"He won't actually run in 2024 but he will tease his base into thinking he will so they give him money," Exhibit #72,847:

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1366168481977274369

[brucejoel99]

Were she to run without formally renouncing "Duchess of Sussex," that'd trigger a potential constitutional question.

[brucejoel99]

Were she to run without formally renouncing "Duchess of Sussex," that'd trigger a potential constitutional question.

Not much of a question, it's unconstitutional for her to serve as president while technically a British royal.

It actually would be, given the specific wording of the Foreign Emoluments Clause: it provides that "no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under [the United States], shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any... Title, of any kind whatever, from any King," ​but she technically wasn't a federal officeholder at the time that she actually accepted her title from Queen Elizabeth, hence the potential for an open constitutional question here. (Gotta love textualism!)

[brucejoel99]

"Assume the President will run again 'til anything else to the contrary arises" is how the modern presidency operates, yes.

[brucejoel99]

Kamala also remaining on the ticket:

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1375150941641510919

[brucejoel99]

https://www.axios.com/chris-christie-2024-presidential-election-4eac5391-8239-4a92-93e1-4f0fb5b367ab.html

Christies allies expect him to run.

He's very clearly floating the balloon. I do wonder what he would determine his path to be. He could try a redux of his 2016 campaign but I really think he'd have to mix things up to stage a comeback. He wouldn't be the first shocker of a comeback though.

It's gonna be quite enjoyable to watch him waste his time & morons' money.

[brucejoel99]

Trump on 2024:

https://dailycaller.com/2021/05/04/donald-trump-2024-candace-owens/

“I’m absolutely enthused. I look forward to doing an announcement at the right time,” Trump told The Daily Wire’s Candace Owens about his 2024 election plans. Trump would enter the Republican primary field as a prohibitive favorite if he does run for president again.

“It’s very early, but I think people are going to be very, very happy … when I make a certain announcement,” Trump continued. “For campaign finance reasons, you really can’t do it too early because it becomes a whole different thing. Otherwise, I’d give you an answer that I think you’d be very happy with. So we are looking at that very, very seriously. And all I’ll say is, stay tuned.”

- snip -

Good grief, the man is certifiably nuts. (Well, we already knew that, but based on this, he's proving it even more.)

Some reporter has got to ask him this question: "Sir, you repeatedly claimed that election 2020 was stolen from you, that it was rigged and it had massive election fraud. If the last election was rigged against you, why wouldn't the next election be rigged as well? How can you possibly win since the opposition party still has the means of rigging the system again?"

Yeah Trump's running again. People don't like to admit it but we're heading for a rematch.

I've been mentally prepared for it since the day he lost and worked to lay the groundwork for denying it. I think he'll have the hardest time of his three general election campaigns against an incumbent Biden, and that may be good news for Democrats, but it's still not good news for my sanity in having to go through having to deal with him and his bulls*** every day for some time and keeping the GOP on their North Korea-esque path.

Take it easy. He'll be in prison before the first primary vote is even cast.

I'm still not convinced of that. Like the cockroach he is, he'll find some way to weasel out of that possibility, as usual.

Presumably an utter sh*tshow involving as many floods of motions, petitions, hearings, & appeals as possible.

[brucejoel99]

Welp, we've already had a socialist run for President from prison, so it'd just be evening the score for a fascist to do so too.

[brucejoel99]

This thread's recent talk is activating some 'nice' flashbacks to 2015 of Democratic hopes for a certain bumbling fool to end up being the Republican nominee so that Hillary could easily crush him. Did the totality of everything over these last 6 years really somehow manage to not force us to learn our lesson on that? Let's please not go through that again, shall we?

[brucejoel99]

https://apnews.com/article/michael-pence-donald-trump-campaign-2016-election-2020-government-and-politics-7306533132e2fa9aa0e9b5da60db9420

Donald Trump was calling into yet another friendly radio show when he was asked, as he often is, whether he’s planning a comeback bid for the White House. “We need you,” conservative commentator Dan Bongino told the former president.

“Well, I’ll tell you what,” Trump responded. “We are going to make you very happy, and we’re going to do what’s right.”

It was a noncommittal answer typical of a former president who spent decades toying with presidential runs. But multiple people who have spoken with Trump and his team in recent weeks say such remarks shouldn’t be viewed as idle chatter. Instead, they sense a shift, with Trump increasingly acting and talking like he plans to mount a run as he embarks on a more public phase of his post-presidency, beginning with a speech on Saturday in North Carolina.
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Allies say Trump misses the office and is eager to return to the action — especially as he sees other potential candidates making moves. He has also felt emboldened by some recent developments, including the ouster of one of his chief critics, Republican Rep. Liz Cheney, from her House leadership position. And some see the presidency as offering potentially useful legal shelter as probes into him and his family business intensify.

“There’s a continued, enduring interest and folks encouraging him to run in 2024, but he’s in no rush to make a decision. And he’ll do that at the appropriate time,” said Trump spokesperson Jason Miller.

There is doubt, however, among some in Trump’s orbit that he will move forward unless he sees a clear path to victory, for fear of being stained by another loss.

But I thought that he was gonna be reinstated to the presidency by August? How could he purport to serve out the rest of this presidential term & then seek yet another term after having already served for more than a-term-&-a-half? If I didn't know any better, then I'd say that it's almost like they don't have their facts (read: f**king lies) straight or something.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1402033143335555073

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1402033143335555073

As I suggested early, Trump running again would make it more likely for Biden to seek a 2nd term. Still not convinced the former will be able to with potential indictments looming.

If he wasn’t going to run again, he wouldn’t have picked a candidate that couldn’t break double digits for his Vice President

I believe that Biden is running for re-election too, though not for the same reason that you do, but it just astounds me as to how this argument is always brought up yet never manages to make any sense, given that the past presidential primary performances of Vice Presidents have never told us anything meaningful about their prospective candidacies' performances after having been elevated to the vice presidency: Biden's pre-vice presidential primary campaigns in 1988 & 2008 had literally no bearing on his post-vice presidential primary campaign of 2020, Gore's pre-vice presidential primary campaign in 1988 had literally no bearing on his post-vice presidential campaign of 2000, Poppy's pre-vice presidential primary campaign in 1980 had literally no bearing on his post-vice presidential campaign of 1988, Mondale's pre-vice presidential primary campaign in 1976 had literally no bearing on his post-vice presidential campaign of 1984, & so on & so forth. There's literally no reason to suspect that this tried-&-true pattern will suddenly fizzle out just in time for Kamala's run.

[brucejoel99]

Trump on whether he’d pick Pence as his running mate again:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-declines-commit-running-pence-024320232.html

"Mike and I have a good relationship, we continue to have a good but it's too early to be discussing running mates certainly," said the former president in an exclusive televised pre-speech interview.

As for whether Trump will in fact run again:

"I'll make a decision in the not too distant future, maybe sooner than people think. And I think they're going to be very happy," said Trump on Saturday evening.

So, Trump's running. I assume he'll pick Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate, as she'd check pretty much every box both Trump and the National GOP would want (woman, fanatically loyal to Trump).

Most likely imho is either Josh Hawley or he changes his registration back to NY or Bedminister, NJ to be able to pick DeSantis. Just like Cheney changed his residence back to WY in 2000. If Trump wants a female VP, is's either Haley or Blackburn.

I still think Mr. Trump won't be able to actually run as tons of legal issues are over his head like a black cloud.

DeSantis won't accept. Being a member of Trump's administration is the kiss of death for a Republican politician's career.

I don't understand this argument. How can it be a kiss of death for his career when Trump is extremely popular among Republicans, and it would give him an opportunity to be a heartbeat away from being the most powerful man on the planet? Trump is old and unhealthy... DeSantis or anyone else would be a fool to reject a VP offer.

Not who you were responding to, but the same way in which it might still end up turning out to have been a kiss of death for Pence's career in the end: if you can't be 100% loyal to Trump & his wishes 100% of the time (which has proven itself to be something of an inherent impossibility, in that one's own potential legal liability will always tend to get in the way of being able to obey Trump's orders sooner-or-later), he'll see to it that you're finished in GOP politics. Just ask Sessions.

Of course, DeSantis might just see that as a risk worth taking anyway, since Trump would be 78 upon taking office again.

[brucejoel99]

Trump on whether he’d pick Pence as his running mate again:

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-declines-commit-running-pence-024320232.html

"Mike and I have a good relationship, we continue to have a good but it's too early to be discussing running mates certainly," said the former president in an exclusive televised pre-speech interview.

As for whether Trump will in fact run again:

"I'll make a decision in the not too distant future, maybe sooner than people think. And I think they're going to be very happy," said Trump on Saturday evening.

So, Trump's running. I assume he'll pick Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate, as she'd check pretty much every box both Trump and the National GOP would want (woman, fanatically loyal to Trump).

Most likely imho is either Josh Hawley or he changes his registration back to NY or Bedminister, NJ to be able to pick DeSantis. Just like Cheney changed his residence back to WY in 2000. If Trump wants a female VP, is's either Haley or Blackburn.

I still think Mr. Trump won't be able to actually run as tons of legal issues are over his head like a black cloud.

DeSantis won't accept. Being a member of Trump's administration is the kiss of death for a Republican politician's career.

I don't understand this argument. How can it be a kiss of death for his career when Trump is extremely popular among Republicans, and it would give him an opportunity to be a heartbeat away from being the most powerful man on the planet? Trump is old and unhealthy... DeSantis or anyone else would be a fool to reject a VP offer.

Not who you were responding to, but the same way in which it might still end up turning out to have been a kiss of death for Pence's career in the end: if you can't be 100% loyal to Trump & his wishes 100% of the time (which has proven itself to be something of an inherent impossibility, in that one's own potential legal liability will always tend to get in the way of being able to obey Trump's orders sooner-or-later), he'll see to it that you're finished in GOP politics. Just ask Sessions.

Of course, DeSantis might just see that as a risk worth taking anyway, since Trump would be 78 upon taking office again.

Again... Pence's career isn't "dead"... he consistently leads in polls for 2024 primary (when Trump is not included) and was the Vice President for four years. If he retires now, that's not a bad career to have.

Hence why I said "in which it might still end up turning out to have been a kiss of death for Pence's career in the end" (my emphasis added in italics), given the very real possibility of him still ultimately flaming out with Trumpists in the primary.

[brucejoel99]

Pence's technical point about the Vice Presidency makes absolute sense, there was no way he could have overturned the election. The thing I don't know is whether he agrees with Trump that their defeat was a fraud. Maybe Republicans are dumb enough to believe the election was rigged but smart enough to accept the VP can't throw out results they don't like, but I'm not betting on it.

There's a sort of middle ground that many Republicans are embracing, wherein they don't endorse the 'Mike Lindell' brand of 'the election was stolen by Democrats! Working with China! Or Iran! Or Italy!' - but they're more of the thinking that 'the election was stolen because it was too easy for Democrats to vote!'

Which, stripped of the rhetoric, is essentially true: vote-by-mail was a massive boon for Democrats. And it's in the Republicans' interest to curtail stuff like that.

While true, it isn't so universal. Let's remember that mail-in ballots in Arizona, counted well after election day, helped Trump significantly close the gap in that state. It's another instance the GOP failing to recognize nuance in a situation, as per usual.

This. So much this. Study after study after study after study has shown that vote-by-mail doesn't inherently serve to advantageously benefit one political party over another. It's only now "a massive boon for Democrats" in the sense that the recent GOP rhetoric on the matter - which is inherently predicated upon the falsehood that vote-by-mail actually does inherently serve to benefit the Democrats & hurt the GOP - has served to utterly depress vote-by-mail turn-out among Republicans & thereby cause the partisan split that has seen Republicans become significantly less likely than Democrats to vote-by-mail & Democrats become significantly more likely than Republicans to cut into their opponents' lead during canvassing periods as a result. In effect, this GOP belief was a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts, in that in spite of a literal litany of evidence to the contrary, they believed that vote-by-mail benefits Democrats to the detriment of the GOP, & so attempted to suppress vote-by-mail, attempts which saw the vast majority of vote-by-mail ballots get cast by Democrats. If they hadn't spread such falsehoods to begin with, then more Republicans would've opted to vote-by-mail, thus serving to disprove the lie that vote-by-mail is "a massive boon for Democrats" which is "in the Republicans' interest to curtail." Sigh.

[brucejoel99]

Trump says he’s made a decision about 2024, but won’t reveal what it is (though his followup comments hint that he’s running):

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tells-sean-hannity-hes-made-his-mind-about-running-2024-election-1605833

Trump made his comment during a Fox News town hall that Hannity hosted on Wednesday night.

"I have to ask, where are you in the process of," Hannity began before finally asking, "Without giving the answer what the answer is, have you made up your mind?"

"Yes," Trump responded.

"It's not that I want to," Trump later clarified. "The country needs it. We have to take care of this country. It isn't fun, fighting constantly, fighting always."

Here’s the relevant segment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0-HOCbRMDQ

pain

I'll believe it when he's formally filed with the FEC & delivered a legitimate announcement speech & not a moment sooner.

[brucejoel99]

Ron DeSantis realizing that he'll never be President solely because of this photo (c. 2021, colorized):




And as if to confirm the inherent absurdity thereof:

https://twitter.com/rawstory/status/1410630921162735621

[brucejoel99]

Pence is rolling out a new attack line aimed at Black Lives Matter.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1416095742205255682

Ironic that he's able to say that after having feared that his own life was endangered by a law enforcement agency.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AndyKroll/status/1417146290870358025

I'm now slightly less convinced that he won't run again than I was a few months ago, but I'm still pretty convinced that he won't run in the end. He might say that he will for the next ~2 or so years, but he pretty clearly hated being President: he wanted all of the pomp that came with it, but none the circumstance (which, also, is ultimately why he won't put his name up for Speaker in the end either, given how that job is no pomp & all circumstance). So long as he says that he's gonna be running, his cult will still keep handing him a sh*tton of money in droves. I still believe that it's just all about the grift.

[brucejoel99]

Biden and aides tell allies he is running in 2024 amid growing Democratic fears:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-reelection-2024/2021/11/20/0779469c-4947-11ec-95dc-5f2a96e00fa3_story.html

President Biden and members of his inner circle have reassured allies in recent days that he plans to run for reelection in 2024, as they take steps to deflect concern about the 79-year-old president's commitment to another campaign and growing Democratic fears of a coming Republican return to power.

The efforts come as the broader Democratic community has become increasingly anxious after a bruising six-month stretch that has seen Biden's national approval rating plummet more than a dozen points, into the low 40s, amid growing concerns about inflation, Democratic infighting in Washington and faltering public health efforts to move beyond the covid-19 pandemic.

The message is aimed in part at tamping down the assumption among many Democrats that Biden may not seek reelection given his age and waning popularity, while also effectively freezing the field for Vice President Harris and other potential presidential hopefuls.

"The only thing I've heard him say is he's planning on running again," said former senator Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), a Biden friend. "And I'm glad he is."

At a virtual fundraiser this month, Biden told a small group of donors that he plans to seek a second term, underscoring the message he gave the nation in March at his first White House news conference before cautioning that he had "never been able to plan 3½, four years ahead, for certain."

"What he is saying publicly is what he firmly believes. There's no difference," said former Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell, who attended the fundraising event. "He will not run if he feels he can't do the job physically or emotionally."

[...]

His advisers say that health is not a current concern that would prevent another campaign.

"He has told people privately that he plans to run and we will be ready for that," said one Biden adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal conversations.

Biden has so far rejected then-president Donald Trump's approach of declaring a reelection campaign in the first months in office, reasoning that such an announcement would waste money and wear out campaign donors, allies say. Biden is widely expected to wait until after the midterms to make a formal announcement.

Shortly after arriving in the White House, Biden shifted the assets of his presidential campaign to the Democratic National Committee, leaving his donor and volunteer lists to be managed by the national party. Since then, DNC leaders have been operating under the assumption that he will run again, choosing not to begin any planning for a contested primary, like debate preparations, which had started at this point in the 2020 cycle.

[...]

Unite the Country, a super PAC formed by Biden loyalists, has also announced plans to invest in the midterms to prepare the ground for Biden’s return to the campaign trail. The focus of their midterm spending, which has a fundraising goal of $42.4 million, will be on five states - Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.

"I wake up every day operating like he is running," the group's CEO Steve Schale said. "He is running until he is not."

[...]

In recent weeks, Anita Dunn, who left the White House in August after a short stint as a senior adviser, has made calls to Democratic Party leaders and activists, assuring them Biden will run for reelection, according to people familiar with the calls.

From her perch at SKDK, a consulting firm she helps run, Dunn still serves as one of Biden's most trusted and influential political advisers and is deeply involved in plotting out his political future. If Biden decides to run, Dunn is likely to be a key part of his team with O'Malley Dillon, allies say. Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon, two of Biden's top White House advisers, are also expected to be deeply involved in campaign strategy and messaging, they say.

[...]

There is little sign at the moment of much appetite for a liberal challenge to Biden if he mounts another campaign. The president has won plaudits from liberal lawmakers this year for pursuing an ambitious domestic agenda.

"President Biden will enjoy strong support from many progressives when he runs for reelection. He will certainly have mine," said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who co-chaired the campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in 2020.

[...]

[brucejoel99]

Are we going to have a "will he or won't he" for Biden for the third cycle in a row?

I mean, that was pretty predictably inevitable as soon as the race was called for him a year ago. Hell, he could publicly say tomorrow that he'll be running for re-election & the media will still feel compelled to make a "will he or won't he" game out of it because of the clicks & ratings that doing so would generate, & we know this because he already did so 8 months ago.

He needs to make a decision on running and announce it before the midterms.

No, he doesn't. For one thing, him immediately making it crystal-clear still wouldn't actually result in the media acting as if it's crystal-clear for the hitherto aforementioned reason, but in any event, announcing would distract from the midterms.