The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Gracile]

Probably doesn't need to be mentioned, but whoever Biden picks as his running mate is going to get a lot of attention and could be a major figure in the 2024 Democratic Primary.

[brucejoel99]

Probably doesn't need to be mentioned, but whoever Biden picks as his running mate is going to get a lot of attention and could be a major figure in the 2024 Democratic Primary.

VP's are (seen as) the natural successors, after all.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like yet another 2016 candidate gave a non-committal answer on 2024 earlier this year.  This is Rand Paul in February (sounding more skeptical than some of the others, but not ruling it out either):

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/exclusive-rand-paul-talks-mixed-bag-trump-foreign-policy-and-mulls-2024-presidential-bid

I eventually hinted at whether Paul maintains presidential ambitions or is eyeing 2024 and didn’t get the denial I was expecting.

“I don't say absolutely no because I think it depends on the circumstances,” the senator said. “[We need to see] what goes on between now and then ... it would take something for me to believe that the libertarian part of the Republican Party is bigger. The libertarian movement is a mixture of people, and they're not all in the Republican primary. It may be a small number of the Republican primary, but it may include more independents and maybe some Democrats.”

[Mr. Morden]

Another move from February that I’m just catching up on: Nikki Haley hired the executive director of Heritage Action to run her conservative policy group:

link

With his conservative resume and organizing ability, Chapman is seen as a key hire for Haley, especially if she seeks the Republican nomination in a post-Trump world.

“Tim’s one of the most talented people in the conservative movement,” Mike Needham told RealClearPolitics. The chief of staff for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Heritage Action director added that Haley had “made a great choice” and said that “it will be exciting to watch the work they do together to advance our nation’s values.”

Haley left her post at the end of 2018, one of only a few administration alumni who walked away from the White House with an intact relationship with the president. So popular was Haley in certain Trump circles, she eventually had to quash rumors that she might replace Vice President Pence on the 2020 ticket. Speculation about her White House ambitions now abounds. By bringing in Chapman, with his sterling conservative resume, the ex-ambassador may be shoring up her right flank in advance of a presidential bid.

[President Johnson]

Probably doesn't need to be mentioned, but whoever Biden picks as his running mate is going to get a lot of attention and could be a major figure in the 2024 Democratic Primary.

If President Biden doesn't run for reelection, I think the 2024 Democratic primary won't be that competitive. Madame Vice President (most likely Kamala) will almost certainly have the nomination in her bag.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess back in March, Andrew Cuomo (in an interview with his brother Chris) ruled out ever thinking about running for president in the future?  Though I'm not sure if he was interpreting this as just whether he'd run this cycle (which itself doesn't make much sense unless you expect Biden to be removed from the ticket):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/politics/andrew-cuomo-2024-2028-president/index.html

C. CUOMO: Let me ask you something. With all of this adulation that you're getting for doing your job, are you thinking about running for President? Tell the audience.
A. CUOMO: No. No.
C. CUOMO: No, you won't answer?
A. CUOMO: No. I answered. The answer is "No." I answered the question.
C. CUOMO: No, you're not thinking about it?
A. CUOMO: Sometimes, it's one word. I said "No." No.
C. CUOMO: Have you thought about it?
A. CUOMO: No.
C. CUOMO: Are you open to thinking about it?
A. CUOMO: No.
C. CUOMO: Might you think about it at some point?
A. CUOMO: No.
C. CUOMO: How can you know what you might think about at some point right now?
A. CUOMO: Because I know what I might think about, and what I won't think about.

Of course, answering no to "have you ever thought about it?" is surely a lie, which anyone who followed the 2016 and 2020 versions of the "Tea Leaves" threads would know.  There's been tons of reporting over the past decade to indicate that Cuomo has thought about running for president.  It's just that he ended up opting not to run in the end (so far).

[Mr. Morden]

Pence is going to Iowa tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1258407687664078848

And Pompeo will be there in July:

https://www.radioiowa.com/2020/05/05/secretary-of-state-pompeo-to-headline-iowa-event-in-july/

Pompeo is scheduled to speak at The Family Leader’s annual mid-year “Leadership Summit” on July 17th in West Des Moines. Pompeo, an Army veteran, has been President Trump’s secretary of state for the past two years. He was the president’s CIA director before that.

Last year, Pompeo said he is open to running for president after Trump leaves office. Pompeo’s speech in July will be his second major address in Iowa. He spoke in March of 2019 at the World Food Prize Headquarters in Des Moines, telling farmers at that time he was seeing “real progress” in trade talks with China.

[Mr. Morden]

Stacey Abrams spoke at the (virtual) New Hampshire Democratic Convention earlier today:

https://www.wmur.com/article/stacey-abrams-tells-nh-democrats-granite-state-can-lead-fight-against-voter-suppression/32424227#

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1259909420990885888

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1259909420990885888

That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

[Mr. Morden]

Not really sure where Pompeo’s reluctance to run for Senate factors into his potential run for president in 2024.  Again, Pompeo has admitted that he’s thought about running for president, and has made a few trips to Iowa, with another one planned in July.  But he’s declined to run for US Senate in Kansas, despite it previously being floated that he might aim to run there as a launching pad for president in 2024.  WaPo has a new story about Trump wanting him to run for Senate and Pompeo refusing.  McConnell also seems to be annoyed with him for not running:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-encourages-pompeo-to-run-for-senate-but-secretary-of-state-rebuffs-him/2020/05/14/16e23fc4-9563-11ea-8107-acde2f7a8d6e_story.html

President Trump recently encouraged Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to reconsider running for the U.S. Senate in Kansas but Pompeo rebuffed the request, according to two people familiar with the conversation.
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As the calendar closes in on Kansas’s June 1 primary-filing deadline, a person close to Pompeo said that the secretary is no longer considering running for the seat after weighing it for months last year. Officials say Pompeo, who served as a congressman from the Wichita area for six years before joining the Trump administration in 2017, wants to remain Secretary of State out of a concern that he has unfinished business to complete.
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McConnell has repeatedly tried to convince Pompeo to run for the seat, seeing him as the ideal candidate, according to people close to the majority leader. Trump was initially skeptical of the bid, seeing Pompeo as one of his most valuable and trustworthy member of his Cabinet. Some people close to McConnell were frustrated when Pompeo decided against the bid in January.

[Mr. Morden]

Yang on 2024:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/andrew-yang-says-hes-open-to-challenging-biden-in-2024-if-former-vp-wins-in-2020

Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang announced that he planned to run for political office again and that he could challenge former Vice President Joe Biden in 2024 if he wins in 2020.

"So one thing I will say to you that, like if the Democrats were to win this year, that would not preclude me from running in 2024, if I thought that was a better approach to solve the problems that I care so deeply about that are wrecking our lives and communities in many, many cases," Yang said during a Friday interview on the Zach and Matt Show on YouTube. "So I’m operating as if I’m going to run for office again, possibly president. And I’m driven not by conventional political dynamics."

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1259909420990885888

That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

I imagine unless Sanders is dead or physically/mentally infirm by 2024, he will be in the Presidential race.

He's going to be the progressive version of Harold Stassen.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1259909420990885888

That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

I imagine unless Sanders is dead or physically/mentally infirm by 2024, he will be in the Presidential race.

He's going to be the progressive version of Harold Stassen.

Bernie: I am "very very unlikely" to ever again run for President.

Atlas: hE's RuNnInG aGaIn, GuYs !!!1!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1259909420990885888

That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

I imagine unless Sanders is dead or physically/mentally infirm by 2024, he will be in the Presidential race.

He's going to be the progressive version of Harold Stassen.

Bernie: I am "very very unlikely" to ever again run for President.

Atlas: hE's RuNnInG aGaIn, GuYs !!!1!

Considering how often presidential candidates launch bids after multiple flat-out denials, I don't think this is an especially poor inference.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1259909420990885888

That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

I imagine unless Sanders is dead or physically/mentally infirm by 2024, he will be in the Presidential race.

He's going to be the progressive version of Harold Stassen.

A Demsoc running in 3 consecutive races still wouldn't match Marxist Eugene Debs' fourth presidential run from inside prison.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1259909420990885888

That is a less definite 'no' than I would have anticipated.

I imagine unless Sanders is dead or physically/mentally infirm by 2024, he will be in the Presidential race.

He's going to be the progressive version of Harold Stassen.

Bernie: I am "very very unlikely" to ever again run for President.

Atlas: hE's RuNnInG aGaIn, GuYs !!!1!

Considering how often presidential candidates launch bids after multiple flat-out denials, I don't think this is an especially poor inference.

The trope is that presidential candidates launch bids after multiple non-denial denials (i.e. "all I'm focused on is my job right now").

This ain't that, not least because he'll be 83.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/mattkatz00/status/1259915242399764480

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/mattkatz00/status/1259915242399764480

Yeah..... that's not gonna happen. Even Republicans hated his guts by the end of his second term. But I do wonder how things would have been without Bridgegate.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/mattkatz00/status/1259915242399764480

Yeah..... that's not gonna happen. Even Republicans hated his guts by the end of his second term. But I do wonder how things would have been without Bridgegate.

He would have won a few states in the primary in 16, if not winning the nomination outright. He was basically Trump with coattails.

[Mr. Morden]

Former Pence chief of staff Nick Ayers may be defecting to the Haley camp for 2024:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/trump-eyes-campaign-shake-up

In 2018, Kushner recruited Ayers to replace John Kelly as Trump’s chief of staff. Ayers turned down the offer, and sources said he has no interest in joining the Trump campaign. One person close to Ayers told me he’s aligning himself with Nikki Haley to lead her potential 2024 campaign. “He views Haley as the right train to be on,” the source said.

[Mr. Morden]

The Washington Examiner on coronavirus and Pence 2024, including a non-denial from his current chief of staff:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/coronavirus-spotlight-shines-a-path-for-mike-pence-toward-2024

“Pence is a natural with the governors and he, more than anyone else in the administration, has been traveling nonstop collecting chits with every GOP governor, mayor, and state leader. Hugely helpful in the inevitable race for key endorsements in 2024,” said a figure close to the Pence team.

“If anyone needs anything from the White House, if you're an elected official, your first call is to Pence.”
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For his part, the vice president has said politics are not a factor in his travel itinerary. Marc Short, his chief of staff, told the Washington Examiner that 2024 remained a long way off.

[QAnonKelly]

Former Pence chief of staff Nick Ayers may be defecting to the Haley camp for 2024:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/trump-eyes-campaign-shake-up

In 2018, Kushner recruited Ayers to replace John Kelly as Trump’s chief of staff. Ayers turned down the offer, and sources said he has no interest in joining the Trump campaign. One person close to Ayers told me he’s aligning himself with Nikki Haley to lead her potential 2024 campaign. “He views Haley as the right train to be on,” the source said.

Ayers has no future here, this makes sense for him.

[Orwell]

I've only seen his name mentioned once in this thread, so I felt like I should add him to the list he is currently my front runner for the 2024 election and that is (soon to be) Massachusetts Senator Joseph Patrick Kennedy III. He is young, charismatic, has the potential to raise boatloads of money, connections to both the progressive young base and the establishment here are a few articles from Mass papers:

Boston Herald
https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/09/25/joe-k-iii-senate-bid-first-step-to-restoring-camelot/

Lowell Sun
https://www.lowellsun.com/2020/04/10/joe-kennedy-iiis-campaign-is-about-the-future/

[brucejoel99]

I've only seen his name mentioned once in this thread, so I felt like I should add him to the list he is currently my front runner for the 2024 election and that is (soon to be) Massachusetts Senator Joseph Patrick Kennedy III. He is young, charismatic, has the potential to raise boatloads of money, connections to both the progressive young base and the establishment here are a few articles from Mass papers:

Boston Herald
https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/09/25/joe-k-iii-senate-bid-first-step-to-restoring-camelot/

Lowell Sun
https://www.lowellsun.com/2020/04/10/joe-kennedy-iiis-campaign-is-about-the-future/

Careful there hot shot, he hasn't actually won his primary yet.