The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Not Me, Us]

Plus it doesn't look very good to be RGA chair while also running for higher office. I suspect it's a similar reason to why Cortez-Masto took herself out of the running for VP.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.axios.com/trump-2024-presidential-run-4add0d86-02be-41f9-b2fd-5aaca96ce6ce.html

President Trump has already told advisers he's thinking about running for president again in 2024, two sources familiar with the conversations tell Axios.

Why it matters: This is the clearest indication yet that Trump understands he has lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden — even as the president continues to falsely insist that he is the true winner, that there has been election fraud and that his team will fight to the end in the courts.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.axios.com/valerie-biden-owens-interview-1a0dde7e-ef42-4f3c-a130-688c182610d0.html

Valerie Biden Owens, her brother's closest political adviser for 49 years, told me in an interview for "Axios on HBO" that President-elect Joe Biden plans to ignore the distractions of President Trump while building and launching a government.

[...]

Why she matters: Owens stays behind the scenes, and rarely gives interviews.

• She's the ultimate gatekeeper, adviser and confidant - Biden's "judgment barometer," as one friend told me. She was the last word on some of the campaign's biggest decisions, and a voice always pushing him to "Just be Joe."

Reflecting the soaring confidence in Biden's camp, Owens replied, "Sure" and "Absolutely" when I asked her if he would run for a second term:

• "He's transitional in that he's bringing in all these young people and bringing [us] back again [so] we're not a divided country. ... But sure. He's going strong."

[...]

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1326026892193968129

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1326142183020367872

[Canis]

Incoming GOP Civil war between the Trumpists and the Bush**tes and Neocons is incoming a big power struggle will take place over the next 4 years culminating in the 2024 GOP primary

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1326026892193968129

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1326142183020367872

He's grifting, this all so he can take money to pay down debts. This scam artist is the same person who created the Trump Organization and Trump University. His supporters will fall for it. I welcome a Trump 2024 campaign, he'll get destroyed.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump has created a new PAC which could be used as a vehicle for 2024 politicking:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-fundraising-save-america-pac-contesting-election-results/story?id=74128659

In an apparent effort to retain future influence over the Republican Party, President Donald Trump has started fundraising through his re-election campaign for a new "Save America" PAC while still battling the 2020 election results in court.
.
.
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Save America is set up as a "leadership PAC," which can be established by former and current members of Congress as well as by other prominent political figures, often with the purpose of advancing their political influence, according to its FEC filing.

Similar to regular political action committees, leadership PACs can only accept up to $5,000 per donor, far less than the upward of $800,000 donation that the Trump campaign and the Republican Party's high-dollar joint fundraising committee Trump Victory could raise. But the new PAC can be used to fund fellow Republicans in Congress, a vehicle for Trump to continue to exert his reach over the Republican Party.

[Lognog]

Trump has created a new PAC which could be used as a vehicle for 2024 politicking:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-fundraising-save-america-pac-contesting-election-results/story?id=74128659

In an apparent effort to retain future influence over the Republican Party, President Donald Trump has started fundraising through his re-election campaign for a new "Save America" PAC while still battling the 2020 election results in court.
.
.
.
Save America is set up as a "leadership PAC," which can be established by former and current members of Congress as well as by other prominent political figures, often with the purpose of advancing their political influence, according to its FEC filing.

Similar to regular political action committees, leadership PACs can only accept up to $5,000 per donor, far less than the upward of $800,000 donation that the Trump campaign and the Republican Party's high-dollar joint fundraising committee Trump Victory could raise. But the new PAC can be used to fund fellow Republicans in Congress, a vehicle for Trump to continue to exert his reach over the Republican Party.

it seems like this is just for 2020 no?

[Mr. Morden]

Trump has created a new PAC which could be used as a vehicle for 2024 politicking:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-fundraising-save-america-pac-contesting-election-results/story?id=74128659

In an apparent effort to retain future influence over the Republican Party, President Donald Trump has started fundraising through his re-election campaign for a new "Save America" PAC while still battling the 2020 election results in court.
.
.
.
Save America is set up as a "leadership PAC," which can be established by former and current members of Congress as well as by other prominent political figures, often with the purpose of advancing their political influence, according to its FEC filing.

Similar to regular political action committees, leadership PACs can only accept up to $5,000 per donor, far less than the upward of $800,000 donation that the Trump campaign and the Republican Party's high-dollar joint fundraising committee Trump Victory could raise. But the new PAC can be used to fund fellow Republicans in Congress, a vehicle for Trump to continue to exert his reach over the Republican Party.

it seems like this is just for 2020 no?

I mean, the 2020 election already happened, so do you mean to raise $ for legal fees?  I assume he could just do that with his existing campaign $?  I'm no expert on this, but from the text above, it sounds like a leadership PAC has stricter fundraising limits than a regular PAC *but* allows him to donate $ to other candidates.  But other candidates don't need more $ until 2022 or 2024, so I assume that this is for that.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Can we sticky this so we don't get buried in the megathreads madness?

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1326701255431958528

[brucejoel99]

Significant Republican hopefuls don't run if Trump does for fear of pissing him off:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-election-results-strategy/2020/11/11/a32e2cba-244a-11eb-952e-0c475972cfc0_story.html

Even the possibility of a future Trump run would help keep him relevant - and in the media spotlight - and effectively freeze the GOP primary field. Many of the party's rising stars and buzzed-about 2024 hopefuls - including Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Pence - are unlikely to run if Trump is planning another campaign, Trump allies said.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Ya know if Trump does run and win in 2024 he will be the *perfect* Grover Cleveland parallel

[Mr. Morden]

Significant Republican hopefuls don't run if Trump does for fear of pissing him off:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-election-results-strategy/2020/11/11/a32e2cba-244a-11eb-952e-0c475972cfc0_story.html

Even the possibility of a future Trump run would help keep him relevant - and in the media spotlight - and effectively freeze the GOP primary field. Many of the party's rising stars and buzzed-about 2024 hopefuls - including Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Pence - are unlikely to run if Trump is planning another campaign, Trump allies said.

Maybe not, but note the source.

Anyway, it all depends on how popular Trump is with GOP primary voters in 3 years.  If the polls say that he'd beat them all handily, then they won't run.  If the polls don't say that, then they will run.

[Mr. Morden]

On the topic of Trump clearing the field though, Rubio did publicly say this:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rubio-says-trump-would-again-be-frontrunner-in-2024

"If he runs in 2024, he'll certainly be the front-runner and will probably be the nominee," Rubio told congressional pool reporters Tuesday. "But again I'm still being presumptuous here, we're not even through with 2020.”

But I'm not sure we'd expect him to publicly say differently now, while Trump is still president.  This doesn't necessarily reflect his true feelings, nor is he binding himself to opting out if Trump runs.

Also, Rubio said this when asked about his own 2024 plans:

"We're not even through with 2020, there's a lot of other decisions to be made, so I haven't even -- honestly guys, no one can even start thinking about things like that until some period of time has elapsed," said Rubio, who will soon campaign in Georgia for the two senate run-offs elections.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.axios.com/trump-2024-presidential-run-4add0d86-02be-41f9-b2fd-5aaca96ce6ce.html

President Trump has already told advisers he's thinking about running for president again in 2024, two sources familiar with the conversations tell Axios.

Why it matters: This is the clearest indication yet that Trump understands he has lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden — even as the president continues to falsely insist that he is the true winner, that there has been election fraud and that his team will fight to the end in the courts.

Republican primary is already over, unless he dies. He'll probably even run from a jail cell Eugene Debss style and claim politics perseuction.

[Mr. Morden]

More from Rubio here:

https://www.axios.com/rubio-gop-reset-trump-872340a7-4c75-4c2b-9261-9612c590ee14.html

Axios says that in their interview with him, he said that "he is leaving the door open for a 2024 presidential run", though they don't offer a direct quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence's next move:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/11/us/politics/mike-pence-trump.html

In reality, Mr. Pence’s allies expect him to return to Indiana and make a living giving paid speeches and potentially writing a book. It will be the first time in a long time that Mr. Pence will live as a private citizen — he moved from the governor’s mansion in Indiana to temporary housing in Washington during the presidential transition four years ago to the Naval Observatory. He currently does not own a house.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/SovernNation/status/1327015013714784256

[Mr. Morden]

Greg Abbott not ruling out a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2020/11/12/abbott-not-ruling-out-2024-presidential-bid

In an interview on KSKY-AM in Dallas on Thursday, host Mark Davis asked Abbott if he is considering a bid for president in 2024. Abbott responded by not ruling out such a bid, saying, “we’ll see what happens.”

"One thing that you know about me, I take one step at a time," Abbott said.

[tosk]

Greg Abbott not ruling out a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2020/11/12/abbott-not-ruling-out-2024-presidential-bid

In an interview on KSKY-AM in Dallas on Thursday, host Mark Davis asked Abbott if he is considering a bid for president in 2024. Abbott responded by not ruling out such a bid, saying, “we’ll see what happens.”

"One thing that you know about me, I take one step at a time," Abbott said.

underrated

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Greg Abbott not ruling out a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2020/11/12/abbott-not-ruling-out-2024-presidential-bid

In an interview on KSKY-AM in Dallas on Thursday, host Mark Davis asked Abbott if he is considering a bid for president in 2024. Abbott responded by not ruling out such a bid, saying, “we’ll see what happens.”

"One thing that you know about me, I take one step at a time," Abbott said.

underrated

Not after the lockdowns, he isn’t. He’d do badly in a national primary unless Republicans somehow lost some Texas races in 2022.

[2016]

The matter of fact is: "No one in the Republican Party is running"

Trump has basically frozen the entire Republican Field until after the 2022 Midterms.

Trump still has an insane amount of leverage over the Republican Party! Get used to it!

And to GOP Moderates: Stop being d***heads and come around it.

[Real Texan Politics]

Greg Abbott not ruling out a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2020/11/12/abbott-not-ruling-out-2024-presidential-bid

In an interview on KSKY-AM in Dallas on Thursday, host Mark Davis asked Abbott if he is considering a bid for president in 2024. Abbott responded by not ruling out such a bid, saying, “we’ll see what happens.”

"One thing that you know about me, I take one step at a time," Abbott said.

Also realize he's still got the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election to worry about.

On the other hand he could also withdraw from the race and run for president in 2024 and hope he goes far.

[tosk]

Greg Abbott not ruling out a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.amarillopioneer.com/blog/2020/11/12/abbott-not-ruling-out-2024-presidential-bid

In an interview on KSKY-AM in Dallas on Thursday, host Mark Davis asked Abbott if he is considering a bid for president in 2024. Abbott responded by not ruling out such a bid, saying, “we’ll see what happens.”

"One thing that you know about me, I take one step at a time," Abbott said.

underrated

Not after the lockdowns, he isn’t. He’d do badly in a national primary unless Republicans somehow lost some Texas races in 2022.

from the approval ratings I've seen, it's independents who have changed on him. You don't think he'd be a dark horse in Iowa/SC? And we're assuming he can't bounce back over the next two years.