The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Ferguson97]

A presidential run is “not anything that we’ve really spent a lot of time on”?  So is that a de facto admission that she’s spent *some* time thinking about it?

Every single politician has spent *some* time thinking about it.

[Mr. Morden]

A presidential run is “not anything that we’ve really spent a lot of time on”?  So is that a de facto admission that she’s spent *some* time thinking about it?

Every single politician has spent *some* time thinking about it.

I know, but they usually pretend they haven't, so this is a gaffe. 

[Horsemask]

Tom Cotton will be in Iowa this week per Burgess Everett from POLITICO

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1320774993068892160

[Mr. Morden]

Noem was just in NH a couple of weeks ago, and she'll be back on Wednesday:

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1320861162167246849

[Vern]

I think there will be more women running in the GOP nomination race than men in 2024.

[Ferguson97]

Noem was just in NH a couple of weeks ago, and she'll be back on Wednesday:

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1320861162167246849

Pence's running mate

[brucejoel99]

Noem was just in NH a couple of weeks ago, and she'll be back on Wednesday:

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1320861162167246849

Pence's running mate

... will still be Nikki Haley.

[Mr. Morden]

Rather than visit early primary states like Cotton, Haley, and Noem, Ted Cruz's 2024 strategy is to promote Senate hearings he attends as if they were campaign events. 

https://twitter.com/donie/status/1321255065190105089

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1321428485320151041

https://twitter.com/DainesforMT/status/1321219202351550464

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/10/24/trump-sons-hint-at-future-runs-as-presidents-polling-looks-dire/#3fa48a0f0b0f

Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son who helps run the Trump Organization as an executive vice president and has been one of his father’s most active surrogates this year, posted a photo of a “Don Jr. 2024” flag to instagram.

Donald Trump Jr. wrote that it will “make liberal heads explode” and that “to whomever made [the sign] thanks for the compliment… but let’s get through 2020 with a big win first.”

He was asked about this yesterday:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-jr-speculation-2024-presidential-run

Trump Jr. addressed the photo during an appearance on "Fox & Friends" Tuesday, telling host Steve Doocy that while he was flattered by the suggestion, his focus remains on "getting another four more years for my father.

"It's obviously a compliment when someone makes a 40-foot sign," the first son said. "That was like a vinyl sign, they went out of their way and really printed up a real sign. This wasn’t a crayon deal, so it was a great compliment.

"But," he continued, "my only focus is really, you know, this next week, getting another four more years for my father, the policies that he’s initiated."

[Mr. Morden]

Pence was in South Carolina yesterday:

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/27/mike-pence-campaigns-greenville-sc-one-week-before-election-day/6051743002/

Ostensibly, this was a trip meant to boost Graham.  Yet I still think it's weird that the VP on a ticket that's losing in the polls would take the time to campaign in a state that isn't expected to be very competitive in the presidential race, just a week before the election.  Though of course, SC is also an early primary state for 2024, so....

[AltWorlder]

I think there will be more women running in the GOP nomination race than men in 2024.

What is Michelle Bachmann up to these days anyway

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/28/aoc-dont-know-house-forever-433215

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez suggested in a new interview that her public service ambitions may carry her beyond the House of Representatives, adding to speculation that the progressive superstar could seek higher office.

“I don’t know if I’m really going to be staying in the House forever, or if I do stay in the House, what that would look like,” Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told Vanity Fair in an interview for the magazine’s December cover story. “I don’t see myself really staying where I’m at for the rest of my life.”
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Ocasio-Cortez is also viewed as one of the likeliest inheritors of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ progressive coalition if she were to run for president. The congresswoman, who endorsed Sanders in the 2020 White House race, turned 31 earlier this month and would meet the constitutional presidential age requirement of 35 by November 2024.

[Suburbia]

Progressives vow bloodbath if Biden loses

https://nypost.com/2020/10/31/progressives-sharpen-knives-for-dem-bloodbath-if-biden-loses/

The moderate wing of the Democratic Party will be decimated

Centrists will have to form their own party

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Progressives vow bloodbath if Biden loses

https://nypost.com/2020/10/31/progressives-sharpen-knives-for-dem-bloodbath-if-biden-loses/

The moderate wing of the Democratic Party will be decimated

Centrists will have to form their own party

I have a hunch they're likely to do better in primaries if Biden wins, rather than loses. One of the better ways to illustrate the flaws in a theory of political change is to demonstrate them.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Anyone got a feeling that if Trump loses, we'll see a few GOP campaigns announcements even before New Year's Day?

Especially if Biden wins, it's going to be a ripe season for making your name as the person who can move the party past Trumpism.

Candidates like Cruz, Haley, and Hawley effectively have the resources in place already.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Anyone got a feeling that if Trump loses, we'll see a few GOP campaigns announcements even before New Year's Day?

Especially if Biden wins, it's going to be a ripe season for making your name as the person who can move the party past Trumpism.

Possibly, but I don't think anyone with a real chance will want to do it until Trump has well and truly conceded the election for fear of being cast as someone who allowed the Biden administration to happen.

[Suburbia]

Progressives vow bloodbath if Biden loses

https://nypost.com/2020/10/31/progressives-sharpen-knives-for-dem-bloodbath-if-biden-loses/

The moderate wing of the Democratic Party will be decimated

Centrists will have to form their own party

I have a hunch they're likely to do better in primaries if Biden wins, rather than loses. One of the better ways to illustrate the flaws in a theory of political change is to demonstrate them.

Bernie is too old. Who gets the nod?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Progressives vow bloodbath if Biden loses

https://nypost.com/2020/10/31/progressives-sharpen-knives-for-dem-bloodbath-if-biden-loses/

The moderate wing of the Democratic Party will be decimated

Centrists will have to form their own party

I have a hunch they're likely to do better in primaries if Biden wins, rather than loses. One of the better ways to illustrate the flaws in a theory of political change is to demonstrate them.

Bernie is too old. Who gets the nod?

I meant downballot primaries in '22 and '24. Conversely, the establishment wing would be more favoured in the presidential primary because Biden would either run again and probably face no serious competition or Kamala Harris would clear the field early with the institutional support typically afforded to a sitting Vice President.

In terms of who (among progressives) would run in a genuinely competitive '24 presidential primary, I'd guess Warren will try to go for it again, although I don't think it'll go well for her. Others to watch are Jeff Merkley and Tammy Baldwin; Sherrod Brown might try, but a presidential run could damage his chances if he ended up running for Senate again so I think he'd only do it if he was already convinced he'd lose his Senate seat anyway.

AOC might run after a second Trump term, but I think it's slightly less likely under a Biden presidency. I also don't think that bid would go particularly well but there's always a lot of uncertainty this far out.

[Suburbia]

Progressives vow bloodbath if Biden loses

https://nypost.com/2020/10/31/progressives-sharpen-knives-for-dem-bloodbath-if-biden-loses/

The moderate wing of the Democratic Party will be decimated

Centrists will have to form their own party

I have a hunch they're likely to do better in primaries if Biden wins, rather than loses. One of the better ways to illustrate the flaws in a theory of political change is to demonstrate them.

Bernie is too old. Who gets the nod?

I meant downballot primaries in '22 and '24. Conversely, the establishment wing would be more favoured in the presidential primary because Biden would either run again and probably face no serious competition or Kamala Harris would clear the field early with the institutional support typically afforded to a sitting Vice President.

In terms of who (among progressives) would run in a genuinely competitive '24 presidential primary, I'd guess Warren will try to go for it again, although I don't think it'll go well for her. Others to watch are Jeff Merkley and Tammy Baldwin; Sherrod Brown might try, but a presidential run could damage his chances if he ended up running for Senate again so I think he'd only do it if he was already convinced he'd lose his Senate seat anyway.

AOC might run after a second Trump term, but I think it's slightly less likely under a Biden presidency. I also don't think that bid would go particularly well but there's always a lot of uncertainty this far out.

They're white. A progressive of color will have to win. White progressivism doesn't win

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Progressives vow bloodbath if Biden loses

https://nypost.com/2020/10/31/progressives-sharpen-knives-for-dem-bloodbath-if-biden-loses/

The moderate wing of the Democratic Party will be decimated

Centrists will have to form their own party

I have a hunch they're likely to do better in primaries if Biden wins, rather than loses. One of the better ways to illustrate the flaws in a theory of political change is to demonstrate them.

Bernie is too old. Who gets the nod?

I meant downballot primaries in '22 and '24. Conversely, the establishment wing would be more favoured in the presidential primary because Biden would either run again and probably face no serious competition or Kamala Harris would clear the field early with the institutional support typically afforded to a sitting Vice President.

In terms of who (among progressives) would run in a genuinely competitive '24 presidential primary, I'd guess Warren will try to go for it again, although I don't think it'll go well for her. Others to watch are Jeff Merkley and Tammy Baldwin; Sherrod Brown might try, but a presidential run could damage his chances if he ended up running for Senate again so I think he'd only do it if he was already convinced he'd lose his Senate seat anyway.

AOC might run after a second Trump term, but I think it's slightly less likely under a Biden presidency. I also don't think that bid would go particularly well but there's always a lot of uncertainty this far out.

They're white. A progressive of color will have to win. White progressivism doesn't win

I don't think it's that simple given the way the primaries played out this year. The problem for some of the best POC progressives is that they are currently US House members and House members (for the most part) don't have much of a national platform. I mentioned AOC, but perhaps Mark Pocan could also pull it off without making it to the Senate.

[Suburbia]

Heads are going to roll if Biden loses.

I would not like to see the far-left take over the Democratic Party.....it would be chaotic.

AOC gives America 4 more years of Tucker or Hawley

[Canis]

If Biden loses theirs a good chance 2024 is gonna be Cuomo vs Harris vs AOC Warren may run again too but shed be a little old. if Biden wins the dem side is gonna be pretty boring with VP harris facing Joke opposition and maybe theirs a chance one serious progressive runs and gets a Bernie 2016 coalition (with DINOS and Progressives) to give Harris a scare but I doubt they will Challenging a sitting vp with the endorsement the current presidents endorsement is an incredibly tough thing to do. 

[Mr. Morden]

Sasse made two trips to Iowa last week: One trip to make a speech at the University of Iowa, and another to campaign for Ernst:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/2024-gop-presidential-contenders-sasse-haley-cotton/index.html

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio and Cotton don't deny their interest to CNN, Hawley says a run's not in the cards for him.