The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[AltWorlder]

I really don't understand who these hypothetical pro-Youngkin voters are. If they want an alternative to Trump, there are a dozen of them right there. Sure, they might not like DeSantis or Haley or Hutchinson, but if they truly are looking for an alternative, it seems like they could hold their nose and vote for someone they don't especially like.

It's because he's a winner. Ettingermentum puts him in B tier here: https://www.ettingermentum.news/p/the-official-republican-party-presidential

Youngkin, a 56-year old former CEO of the Carlyle Group (yes, the same one from Fahrenheit 9/11), has only run in one election of his life, but that race needs no introduction. Almost exactly one year after Biden won the commonwealth of Virginia by 10%, Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe by two points in the state’s extremely high-profile gubernatorial contest in 2021. This win immediately rocketed Youngkin into the national spotlight, not just because he won in a blue state (although that was impressive enough by itself) but in the way in which he won. While the standard Republican playbook in blue states has always been to compromise on social issues, Youngkin managed to win while centering his campaign around a set of right-wing culture war attacks. It was a massively invigorating result for a Republican Party that had been struggling mightily in places exactly like Virginia for years, and led them to place his strategy at the core of their efforts in the 2022 midterms.

A year and a half later, however, Youngkin still stands alone as the sole Republican to win anything close to a competitive race off of the platform he pioneered. Attempts to take his hysterical campaign style nationally would fail so disastrously that some have already begun dismissing his 2021 win as a fluke. While I wouldn’t go that far—no Republican can win in a state like Virginia simply off of luck alone—it’s also undeniable that Youngkin benefited tremendously from factors outside of his control. The most important of these was timing. His election occurring in November 2021 meant that he was able to benefit from one event that massively helped Republicans—the fall of Kabul and the collapse of Biden’s approval ratings—while avoiding the impact of the Dobbs ruling, which massively harmed Republicans. If his race occurred before the former event, he almost certainly loses. If it occurred after the latter one, he likely loses as well.

And you don’t even have to look into hypotheticals to see that Youngkin’s ability to overperform Trump in November 2021 wasn’t a unique one. Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for Governor in New Jersey, whose election was on the same day as Youngkin, actually had a larger overperformance in his race than Youngkin did in his, despite running against a popular incumbent. Because of just how favorable this environment was, Youngkin was never forced to face the sort of hard questions on issues like Trump and abortion that will make or break his viability on the national stage. While the national political media is very far from perfect, I find it doubtful that they will let him slide on as nearly as many issues as local Virginia media did during his race in 2021.

He also rates Tim Scott and Brian Kemp as B Tier as well. There are no credible Republican Presidential contenders in A tier or S tier.

[LostInOhio]

I really don't understand who these hypothetical pro-Youngkin voters are. If they want an alternative to Trump, there are a dozen of them right there. Sure, they might not like DeSantis or Haley or Hutchinson, but if they truly are looking for an alternative, it seems like they could hold their nose and vote for someone they don't especially like.

It's because he's a winner. Ettingermentum puts him in B tier here: https://www.ettingermentum.news/p/the-official-republican-party-presidential

Youngkin, a 56-year old former CEO of the Carlyle Group (yes, the same one from Fahrenheit 9/11), has only run in one election of his life, but that race needs no introduction. Almost exactly one year after Biden won the commonwealth of Virginia by 10%, Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe by two points in the state’s extremely high-profile gubernatorial contest in 2021. This win immediately rocketed Youngkin into the national spotlight, not just because he won in a blue state (although that was impressive enough by itself) but in the way in which he won. While the standard Republican playbook in blue states has always been to compromise on social issues, Youngkin managed to win while centering his campaign around a set of right-wing culture war attacks. It was a massively invigorating result for a Republican Party that had been struggling mightily in places exactly like Virginia for years, and led them to place his strategy at the core of their efforts in the 2022 midterms.

A year and a half later, however, Youngkin still stands alone as the sole Republican to win anything close to a competitive race off of the platform he pioneered. Attempts to take his hysterical campaign style nationally would fail so disastrously that some have already begun dismissing his 2021 win as a fluke. While I wouldn’t go that far—no Republican can win in a state like Virginia simply off of luck alone—it’s also undeniable that Youngkin benefited tremendously from factors outside of his control. The most important of these was timing. His election occurring in November 2021 meant that he was able to benefit from one event that massively helped Republicans—the fall of Kabul and the collapse of Biden’s approval ratings—while avoiding the impact of the Dobbs ruling, which massively harmed Republicans. If his race occurred before the former event, he almost certainly loses. If it occurred after the latter one, he likely loses as well.

And you don’t even have to look into hypotheticals to see that Youngkin’s ability to overperform Trump in November 2021 wasn’t a unique one. Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for Governor in New Jersey, whose election was on the same day as Youngkin, actually had a larger overperformance in his race than Youngkin did in his, despite running against a popular incumbent. Because of just how favorable this environment was, Youngkin was never forced to face the sort of hard questions on issues like Trump and abortion that will make or break his viability on the national stage. While the national political media is very far from perfect, I find it doubtful that they will let him slide on as nearly as many issues as local Virginia media did during his race in 2021.

He also rates Tim Scott and Brian Kemp as B Tier as well. There are no credible Republican Presidential contenders in A tier or S tier.

This is assuming that the GOP base voters are capable of strategic thinking but they are not. Democrats didn’t love Biden but voted for him specifically to beat Trump. Maybe in 2028 they’ll go with Youngkin to beat Harris - that’s what I’d personally advise them to do - but they’re more likely to nominate a whacko they love like Kari Lake or Matt Gaetz and lose instead.

For some reason they seem to have interpreted their two losses to Obama as being because they went with more moderate candidates when in reality nobody they nominated would ever be able to defeat Obama. Nobody.

[AltWorlder]

Mitt Romney, former presidential candidate and governor, won’t seek Senate reelection in 2024

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The NH filing period has been set for October 11 through October 27:

https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/filing-period-announcement-for-web.pdf

A date for the NH primaries has not been set.

Filing on the Democratic side will be more interesting than on the Republican side, because NH Democrats are still in disarray over Biden filing or not. The latest I have read is that Biden won't file and NH Democrats will organize a write-in campaign for him.

Democrats have nothing to say in NH when it comes to election administration, because Republicans are in charge of the state legislature, the Secretary of State and the Governor.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The NH filing period has been set for October 11 through October 27:

https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/filing-period-announcement-for-web.pdf

A date for the NH primaries has not been set.

Filing on the Democratic side will be more interesting than on the Republican side, because NH Democrats are still in disarray over Biden filing or not. The latest I have read is that Biden won't file and NH Democrats will organize a write-in campaign for him.

Democrats have nothing to say in NH when it comes to election administration, because Republicans are in charge of the state legislature, the Secretary of State and the Governor.

Besides NH, the earliest filing period is in Nevada - which is already ongoing.

Candidates for the Feb. 8 Republican caucus can register with the NV GOP between Sept. 1 and Oct. 15

In SC, the filing deadline is Oct. 31

Iowa has no filing period, at least none that I am aware of. I think the Republican and Democratic state parties in Iowa will just announce at some points which candidates they consider "major" and these candidates are the ones people can caucus for.

[The Mikado]

The NH filing period has been set for October 11 through October 27:

https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/filing-period-announcement-for-web.pdf

A date for the NH primaries has not been set.

Filing on the Democratic side will be more interesting than on the Republican side, because NH Democrats are still in disarray over Biden filing or not. The latest I have read is that Biden won't file and NH Democrats will organize a write-in campaign for him.

Democrats have nothing to say in NH when it comes to election administration, because Republicans are in charge of the state legislature, the Secretary of State and the Governor.

Traditionally a bunch of random weirdos file for the NH primary who don't file for any other state. Expect a list of like 20-30 candidates on both parties on this ballot.

[Pres Mike]

I really don't understand who these hypothetical pro-Youngkin voters are. If they want an alternative to Trump, there are a dozen of them right there. Sure, they might not like DeSantis or Haley or Hutchinson, but if they truly are looking for an alternative, it seems like they could hold their nose and vote for someone they don't especially like.

It's because he's a winner. Ettingermentum puts him in B tier here: https://www.ettingermentum.news/p/the-official-republican-party-presidential

Youngkin, a 56-year old former CEO of the Carlyle Group (yes, the same one from Fahrenheit 9/11), has only run in one election of his life, but that race needs no introduction. Almost exactly one year after Biden won the commonwealth of Virginia by 10%, Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe by two points in the state’s extremely high-profile gubernatorial contest in 2021. This win immediately rocketed Youngkin into the national spotlight, not just because he won in a blue state (although that was impressive enough by itself) but in the way in which he won. While the standard Republican playbook in blue states has always been to compromise on social issues, Youngkin managed to win while centering his campaign around a set of right-wing culture war attacks. It was a massively invigorating result for a Republican Party that had been struggling mightily in places exactly like Virginia for years, and led them to place his strategy at the core of their efforts in the 2022 midterms.

A year and a half later, however, Youngkin still stands alone as the sole Republican to win anything close to a competitive race off of the platform he pioneered. Attempts to take his hysterical campaign style nationally would fail so disastrously that some have already begun dismissing his 2021 win as a fluke. While I wouldn’t go that far—no Republican can win in a state like Virginia simply off of luck alone—it’s also undeniable that Youngkin benefited tremendously from factors outside of his control. The most important of these was timing. His election occurring in November 2021 meant that he was able to benefit from one event that massively helped Republicans—the fall of Kabul and the collapse of Biden’s approval ratings—while avoiding the impact of the Dobbs ruling, which massively harmed Republicans. If his race occurred before the former event, he almost certainly loses. If it occurred after the latter one, he likely loses as well.

And you don’t even have to look into hypotheticals to see that Youngkin’s ability to overperform Trump in November 2021 wasn’t a unique one. Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for Governor in New Jersey, whose election was on the same day as Youngkin, actually had a larger overperformance in his race than Youngkin did in his, despite running against a popular incumbent. Because of just how favorable this environment was, Youngkin was never forced to face the sort of hard questions on issues like Trump and abortion that will make or break his viability on the national stage. While the national political media is very far from perfect, I find it doubtful that they will let him slide on as nearly as many issues as local Virginia media did during his race in 2021.

He also rates Tim Scott and Brian Kemp as B Tier as well. There are no credible Republican Presidential contenders in A tier or S tier.

I do think Youngkin will be a strong canididate in 2028 for a variety of reasons. But I also agree he got slighlty lucky in 2021.

I blame his victory on backlash to mask mandates and lockdowns. The fact that several blue state governors ended their mask mandates a few months after Youngkin's victory is proof of this.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Increasingly clear that Haley will be the default anti-Trump candidate in the actual primaries next year. Not that she has a real chance of taking him down, but I think she finishes second place over Rob and Vivek, which means winning Utah and maybe Vermont or something.

[Roll Roons]

Increasingly clear that Haley will be the default anti-Trump candidate in the actual primaries next year. Not that she has a real chance of taking him down, but I think she finishes second place over Rob and Vivek, which means winning Utah and maybe Vermont or something.

Probably DC.

[Coldstream]

Increasingly clear that Haley will be the default anti-Trump candidate in the actual primaries next year. Not that she has a real chance of taking him down, but I think she finishes second place over Rob and Vivek, which means winning Utah and maybe Vermont or something.

Be interesting to see if coming second, winning some states, despite no expectations would be enough to set her up for 2028 (assuming there still are elections then).

[Benjamin Frank]

Increasingly clear that Haley will be the default anti-Trump candidate in the actual primaries next year. Not that she has a real chance of taking him down, but I think she finishes second place over Rob and Vivek, which means winning Utah and maybe Vermont or something.

Let's wait to see how the second debate goes and if Christie can win back his position. I'm sure he was taken aback by the agressively anti Trump position of Haley in the first debate.

[Mr. Smith]

I really don't understand who these hypothetical pro-Youngkin voters are. If they want an alternative to Trump, there are a dozen of them right there. Sure, they might not like DeSantis or Haley or Hutchinson, but if they truly are looking for an alternative, it seems like they could hold their nose and vote for someone they don't especially like.

It's because he's a winner. Ettingermentum puts him in B tier here: https://www.ettingermentum.news/p/the-official-republican-party-presidential

Youngkin, a 56-year old former CEO of the Carlyle Group (yes, the same one from Fahrenheit 9/11), has only run in one election of his life, but that race needs no introduction. Almost exactly one year after Biden won the commonwealth of Virginia by 10%, Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe by two points in the state’s extremely high-profile gubernatorial contest in 2021. This win immediately rocketed Youngkin into the national spotlight, not just because he won in a blue state (although that was impressive enough by itself) but in the way in which he won. While the standard Republican playbook in blue states has always been to compromise on social issues, Youngkin managed to win while centering his campaign around a set of right-wing culture war attacks. It was a massively invigorating result for a Republican Party that had been struggling mightily in places exactly like Virginia for years, and led them to place his strategy at the core of their efforts in the 2022 midterms.

A year and a half later, however, Youngkin still stands alone as the sole Republican to win anything close to a competitive race off of the platform he pioneered. Attempts to take his hysterical campaign style nationally would fail so disastrously that some have already begun dismissing his 2021 win as a fluke. While I wouldn’t go that far—no Republican can win in a state like Virginia simply off of luck alone—it’s also undeniable that Youngkin benefited tremendously from factors outside of his control. The most important of these was timing. His election occurring in November 2021 meant that he was able to benefit from one event that massively helped Republicans—the fall of Kabul and the collapse of Biden’s approval ratings—while avoiding the impact of the Dobbs ruling, which massively harmed Republicans. If his race occurred before the former event, he almost certainly loses. If it occurred after the latter one, he likely loses as well.

And you don’t even have to look into hypotheticals to see that Youngkin’s ability to overperform Trump in November 2021 wasn’t a unique one. Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for Governor in New Jersey, whose election was on the same day as Youngkin, actually had a larger overperformance in his race than Youngkin did in his, despite running against a popular incumbent. Because of just how favorable this environment was, Youngkin was never forced to face the sort of hard questions on issues like Trump and abortion that will make or break his viability on the national stage. While the national political media is very far from perfect, I find it doubtful that they will let him slide on as nearly as many issues as local Virginia media did during his race in 2021.

He also rates Tim Scott and Brian Kemp as B Tier as well. There are no credible Republican Presidential contenders in A tier or S tier.

I do think Youngkin will be a strong canididate in 2028 for a variety of reasons. But I also agree he got slighlty lucky in 2021.

I blame his victory on backlash to mask mandates and lockdowns. The fact that several blue state governors ended their mask mandates a few months after Youngkin's victory is proof of this.

No, Terry McAuliffe seriously blew it, he already nearly blew a campaign the first time despite The Government Shutdown and Ken C00#h's record.  Someone else defeats Youngkin, literally anyone else.

That literally everyone else ran ahead of him certainly doesn't help.

[AltWorlder]

Is she running?

https://twitter.com/ninaturner/status/1707110008981213237

[The Mikado]

Is she running?

https://twitter.com/ninaturner/status/1707110008981213237

If Cornel West is running for the Green Party, there's an opening for the nomination of her "People's Party."

She's not gonna have any fun being on the ballot in like 6-10 states if she goes that way, though.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Probably running as a Democrat with the option of being Cornel’s VP after she fizzles out against Joe.

[Ferguson97]

Probably just running for the House again lol

[Pres Mike]

If Trump goes to jail, who is the nominee?

[Ferguson97]

If Trump goes to jail, who is the nominee?

Trump.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Cenk Uygur considering

^{https://www.mediaite.com/politics/cenk-uygur-is-so-frustrated-by-bidens-slagging-poll-numbers-that-hes-staffing-up-for-a-2024-run/}

Cenk Uygur says he’s so mortified by the prospect of former President Donald Trump winning a second term over incumbent President Joe Biden, who he views as weak, that he’s staffing up for a 2024 run of his own.

[Lambsbread]

Cenk Uygur considering

^{https://www.mediaite.com/politics/cenk-uygur-is-so-frustrated-by-bidens-slagging-poll-numbers-that-hes-staffing-up-for-a-2024-run/}

Cenk Uygur says he’s so mortified by the prospect of former President Donald Trump winning a second term over incumbent President Joe Biden, who he views as weak, that he’s staffing up for a 2024 run of his own.

Is he even eligible to run? He was born in Turkey.

Also, he couldn't even win a primary for Congress in California, what makes him think he's more electable at a national level than Joe Biden? Gotta be one of the most narcissistic things I've ever heard.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If Trump goes to jail, who is the nominee?

Trump.

Likely accurate (although I have the faint hope that if he manages to get himself silenced and under house arrest from defying protection orders, that might change), but there still the question of: If Trump dies, or has an incapacitating health crisis, who is the nominee?  (Insofar as any of the Republican candidates are serious about getting the nomination next year, I suspect they're betting on this happening.)

[Helsinkian]

Cenk Uygur considering

^{https://www.mediaite.com/politics/cenk-uygur-is-so-frustrated-by-bidens-slagging-poll-numbers-that-hes-staffing-up-for-a-2024-run/}

Cenk Uygur says he’s so mortified by the prospect of former President Donald Trump winning a second term over incumbent President Joe Biden, who he views as weak, that he’s staffing up for a 2024 run of his own.

Is he even eligible to run? He was born in Turkey.

Also, he couldn't even win a primary for Congress in California, what makes him think he's more electable at a national level than Joe Biden? Gotta be one of the most narcissistic things I've ever heard.

He believes that the requirement of being a natural-born citizen was superseded by the 14th Amendment, and he thinks a run by him can set that precedent.

If he were to run, at which point could the courts rule on that issue? Could he appear on the primary ballot while the matter is still in court? Or could it only be challenged if he were to be nominated or elected?

But yeah, he got 6 percent in a congressional primary, so there's no chance.

[beaver2.0]

Cenk Uygur considering

^{https://www.mediaite.com/politics/cenk-uygur-is-so-frustrated-by-bidens-slagging-poll-numbers-that-hes-staffing-up-for-a-2024-run/}

Cenk Uygur says he’s so mortified by the prospect of former President Donald Trump winning a second term over incumbent President Joe Biden, who he views as weak, that he’s staffing up for a 2024 run of his own.

Is he even eligible to run? He was born in Turkey.

Also, he couldn't even win a primary for Congress in California, what makes him think he's more electable at a national level than Joe Biden? Gotta be one of the most narcissistic things I've ever heard.

He believes that the requirement of being a natural-born citizen was superseded by the 14th Amendment, and he thinks a run by him can set that precedent.

If he were to run, at which point could the courts rule on that issue? Could he appear on the primary ballot while the matter is still in court? Or could it only be challenged if he were to be nominated or elected?

But yeah, he got 6 percent in a congressional primary, so there's no chance.

He can join Marianne Williamson in the former Democratic primary candidate to presidential candidate club.

[AltWorlder]

He can join Marianne Williamson in the former Democratic primary candidate to presidential candidate club.

I'm guessing that given how underwhelming her primary campaign has been, partly due to the crowded anti-Biden fringe, she's probably not going to run as an independent after she suspends it.

It's quite funny. On the more radical, fringier end we have Cornel West and quite possibly RFK Jr. On the more conventional, mainstream-establishmetnarian end we might have Dean Philips as the centrist side, we might have No Labels as well, and finally we might have Cenk Uygur as the somewhat more progressive but still pro-Ukraine. And that's only the left to center candidates!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

https://twitter.com/ninaturner/status/1709526984366186928?s=20
It wasn't a presidential bid.