The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Kemp would sink quicker than DeSantis against Trump. Youngkin would at least be able to put up a credible fight and position himself for 2028.

You mean Youngkin can get to the 3-4% Tim Scott hovers around. How does he get past that, though? That's about the size of the party that actually wants a genial friendly Trump alternative. The fact that Trump's...Trump is a selling point, not a liability, to actual primary voters.

I don't know, I think Youngkin can easily get to 10% against Trump. I don't think he goes much further beyond that, but I think he can pull in at least a ~100-200 delegates and place second to Trump in the convention count.

And I don't even like Youngkin all that much for that matter.

[Benjamin Frank]

Kemp would sink quicker than DeSantis against Trump. Youngkin would at least be able to put up a credible fight and position himself for 2028.

You mean Youngkin can get to the 3-4% Tim Scott hovers around. How does he get past that, though? That's about the size of the party that actually wants a genial friendly Trump alternative. The fact that Trump's...Trump is a selling point, not a liability, to actual primary voters.

I don't know, I think Youngkin can easily get to 10% against Trump. I don't think he goes much further beyond that, but I think he can pull in at least a ~100-200 delegates and place second to Trump in the convention count.

And I don't even like Youngkin all that much for that matter.

Aren't most of the states 'winner take all'?

[LostInOhio]

The GOP actively wants Trump or someone like him. Everything non-Republicans think is a liability against him is actually an asset. After Trump isn’t around in 2028 they’ll likely coalesce behind the next Trumpian figure they find, probably Tucker Carlson if he runs (50/50 at this point) or maybe even Kari Lake.

[The Mikado]

Kemp would sink quicker than DeSantis against Trump. Youngkin would at least be able to put up a credible fight and position himself for 2028.

You mean Youngkin can get to the 3-4% Tim Scott hovers around. How does he get past that, though? That's about the size of the party that actually wants a genial friendly Trump alternative. The fact that Trump's...Trump is a selling point, not a liability, to actual primary voters.

I don't know, I think Youngkin can easily get to 10% against Trump. I don't think he goes much further beyond that, but I think he can pull in at least a ~100-200 delegates and place second to Trump in the convention count.

And I don't even like Youngkin all that much for that matter.

Aren't most of the states 'winner take all'?

Most is an exaggeration, but there are quite a few of them (Florida and Ohio are two very large states that are WTA) and quite a few more, like California and Georgia, that have adapted a 50% WTA trigger (proportional if leading candidate is below 50%, 100% of delegates to winner if winner is over 50%)

[Ferguson97]

Oh my god Vivek's face, he looks like a scared little boy

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Oh my god Vivek's face, he looks like a scared little boy

Probably because he's afraid Big Fat Fatty will sit on him.

[Meatball Slayer]

The GOP actively wants Trump or someone like him. Everything non-Republicans think is a liability against him is actually an asset. After Trump isn’t around in 2028 they’ll likely coalesce behind the next Trumpian figure they find, probably Tucker Carlson if he runs (50/50 at this point) or maybe even Kari Lake.

The median 2028 scenario if Trump somehow loses 2024 is Hawley v. Harris.

[NewYorkExpress]

The GOP actively wants Trump or someone like him. Everything non-Republicans think is a liability against him is actually an asset. After Trump isn’t around in 2028 they’ll likely coalesce behind the next Trumpian figure they find, probably Tucker Carlson if he runs (50/50 at this point) or maybe even Kari Lake.

The median 2028 scenario if Trump somehow loses 2024 is Hawley v. Harris.

Trump vs Harris.

If Trump wins it's Trump vs N/A because there's no way there'll even be a 2028 election.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Earliest filing deadline is coming up soon:

Oct. 1-15: Republican candidates have to file for the 8 February 2024 Nevada caucus

Youngkin, Kemp (and others who might still join the race) are going to miss this deadline ...

[AltWorlder]

https://twitter.com/alexthomp/status/1692898853433831572

The Newsom option for the GOP!

So turns out the freaking Bohemian Grove has been plotting as well.

At The Bohemian Grove, the secretive conclave of men who gather in Northern California, the attendance was a Who’s Who of pre-Trump Republicans, a murderer’s row of bundlers and Wall Street Journal editorial page favorites including former House Speaker Paul Ryan and ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, as my colleague Ryan Lizza reported. With fear setting in about Trump’s re-nomination, the gathering became something of a fantasy camp on how to avert that prospect or at least confront it. One name that came up as a potential apolitical independent nominee was retired Admiral William McRaven, the former special operations commander who became chancellor of the University of Texas.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/28/2024-presidential-contest-candidates-biden-trump-00108685

This will go as far as Mattis 2016, but it's fun to gossip about.

Also from the same article

Over in the Rockies a few days later was the annual Aspen retreat for donors to the Republican Governors Association. There was similar how-do-we-stop-him chatter there, I’m told, along with much fretting about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ ailing candidacy. Two contenders showed up to work the donors and governors, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former Vice President Mike Pence, but a candidate-in-waiting also received ample attention. Contributors buttonholed Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, an attendee told me, with some asking if he’d run and others skipping pleasantries and pushing him to get in the race.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who thinks Trump is “almost certainly” going to be the GOP standard-bearer, said because of his wealth and potential appeal Youngkin “is an overnight serious national candidate” and likened his potential path to that of Wendell Willkie, the businessman who emerged late to claim the 1940 Republican nomination

If Youngkin runs it won’t be until after Virginia’s legislative elections in November.

And by that point, it may be as much a referendum on DeSantis’ weakness as Trump’s strength.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Was Mad Dog Mattis floated as a candidate in 2016? I don't recall that.

[AltWorlder]

Was Mad Dog Mattis floated as a candidate in 2016? I don't recall that.

At the journo-donor level, yeah

https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-man-can-save-us-from-trumpand-clinton

https://www.vox.com/2016/4/22/11479700/draft-mattis

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/04/29/james-mattis-white-knight-campaign-for-third-party-conservative-ends-before-it-begins/

[AltWorlder]

So how many "establishment coup/moderate insurgency" potential candidacies are there?

Democratic:

- Dean Philips making noises but not actually running

- Perpetual rumors of party insiders subbing in Gavin Newsom

Republican:

- Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum, Will Hurd, etc., outsider moderate campaigns

- Donors talking about Youngkin or Kemp

Other:

- No Labels

- Admiral McRaven namedrop out of nowhere

Any others I'm missing?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

So how many "establishment coup/moderate insurgency" potential candidacies are there?

Democratic:

- Dean Philips making noises but not actually running

- Perpetual rumors of party insiders subbing in Gavin Newsom

Republican:

- Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum, Will Hurd, etc., outsider moderate campaigns

- Donors talking about Youngkin or Kemp

Other:

- No Labels

- Admiral McRaven namedrop out of nowhere

Any others I'm missing?

I wouldn't call Hutchinson (or potentially Youngkin or Kemp) outsider moderate campaigns, they're very much running as insiders. Hurd and Christie are running as outsider moderates ig.

[AltWorlder]

lol Kemp would be smoked if he tried to run as his state government prosecutes Trump

https://Twitter.com/bluestein/status/1697262079164764356
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1697266852978688164

[NewYorkExpress]

Chris Sununu has ruled out a third party run.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) on Sunday more firmly ruled out a third-party run for president in 2024 on Sunday, but said many will feel “politically homeless” if President Biden and former President Trump are on the top of the ticket.

“No, nothing I’m looking at.  No, nothing I’m looking at,” he told NBC’s Chuck Todd on “Meet the Press” on whether he would make a third-party bid for the White House after opting to not run in the crowded GOP primary. “Look, I’m still working 24/7 to make sure the Republican Party is the best version of itself.”


“And that is it with yesterday’s news of Donald Trump, and a conservative that can fulfill on all the policies that Trump brought forward that we agreed with, but he just couldn’t get done,” he said. “He didn’t get the border done. He didn’t get fiscal discipline done. He didn’t drain the swamp. Those are great ideas. But let’s get a conservative in there that can actually do it.”

[Lambsbread]

“Look, I’m still working 24/7 to make sure the Republican Party is the best version of itself.”

Uh…maybe he should try working harder, because what he’s done thus far hasn’t worked.

[The Mikado]

If Youngkin jumped in on November 8th, the day after the VA Legislative elections, he'd miss the NV (Oct 15th) and SC (Oct 31st) GOP filing deadlines but still (barely) make the next set of deadlines, AL (Nov 10th) and AR (Nov 14th). If he waited a week he'd miss those too.

[LostInOhio]

If Youngkin jumped in on November 8th, the day after the VA Legislative elections, he'd miss the NV (Oct 15th) and SC (Oct 31st) GOP filing deadlines but still (barely) make the next set of deadlines, AL (Nov 10th) and AR (Nov 14th). If he waited a week he'd miss those too.

Youngkin isn’t getting in the race. He would poll at like 2% and then drop out a month or two later. There is no stopping Trump, he is the Republican Party now.

[NewYorkExpress]

Gavin Newsom officially puts any lingering 2024 speculation to rest.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is trying to put an end to speculation that he might run for president in 2024, saying he's all in for President Joe Biden.

"I think we need to move past this notion that he’s not going to run," Newsom told NBC "Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd in an interview, adding that he looked forward to getting Biden re-elected.

"I think there’s been so much wallowing in the last few months, and handwringing in this respect," Newsom said. "But we’re gearing up for the campaign. We’re looking forward to it."

He said his message to donors wondering if the nominee will be someone besides Biden is: "Time to move on. Let's go."

[Lambsbread]

Gavin Newsom officially puts any lingering 2024 speculation to rest.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is trying to put an end to speculation that he might run for president in 2024, saying he's all in for President Joe Biden.

"I think we need to move past this notion that he’s not going to run," Newsom told NBC "Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd in an interview, adding that he looked forward to getting Biden re-elected.

"I think there’s been so much wallowing in the last few months, and handwringing in this respect," Newsom said. "But we’re gearing up for the campaign. We’re looking forward to it."

He said his message to donors wondering if the nominee will be someone besides Biden is: "Time to move on. Let's go."

This is no different from anything he has ever said. The only people insisting he was thinking about running were clickbaiters and trolls.

[Sir Mohamed]

Gavin Newsom officially puts any lingering 2024 speculation to rest.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is trying to put an end to speculation that he might run for president in 2024, saying he's all in for President Joe Biden.

"I think we need to move past this notion that he’s not going to run," Newsom told NBC "Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd in an interview, adding that he looked forward to getting Biden re-elected.

"I think there’s been so much wallowing in the last few months, and handwringing in this respect," Newsom said. "But we’re gearing up for the campaign. We’re looking forward to it."

He said his message to donors wondering if the nominee will be someone besides Biden is: "Time to move on. Let's go."

He said so several times before. This talk was always propped up by right-wing channels and commentators.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Gavin Newsom officially puts any lingering 2024 speculation to rest.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is trying to put an end to speculation that he might run for president in 2024, saying he's all in for President Joe Biden.

"I think we need to move past this notion that he’s not going to run," Newsom told NBC "Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd in an interview, adding that he looked forward to getting Biden re-elected.

"I think there’s been so much wallowing in the last few months, and handwringing in this respect," Newsom said. "But we’re gearing up for the campaign. We’re looking forward to it."

He said his message to donors wondering if the nominee will be someone besides Biden is: "Time to move on. Let's go."

Newsom Addresses 2024 Rumors Amid Biden Health Concerns: ‘Let’s go’

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

If Youngkin jumped in on November 8th, the day after the VA Legislative elections, he'd miss the NV (Oct 15th) and SC (Oct 31st) GOP filing deadlines but still (barely) make the next set of deadlines, AL (Nov 10th) and AR (Nov 14th). If he waited a week he'd miss those too.

Missing these 4 small-state deadlines wouldn't impact Youngkin's campaign.

But he definitely needs to get in by December when the CA and TX filing deadlines are coming up, along with several other big states.

But I believe Youngkin won't get in, because Trump is 99% unbeatable right now.

[beaver2.0]

I really don't understand who these hypothetical pro-Youngkin voters are. If they want an alternative to Trump, there are a dozen of them right there. Sure, they might not like DeSantis or Haley or Hutchinson, but if they truly are looking for an alternative, it seems like they could hold their nose and vote for someone they don't especially like. I just do not see how there are enough pro-Youngkin voters out there to overcome Trump's massive lead.