The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[SCNCmod]

There you go:
https://twitter.com/SaacksAttack/status/1579959325090787333
Now all what we have to do is to convince that stupid moron-like GOP Primary Electorate to abandon Trump.

While I don't like all the stuff Paul Ryan did as Speaker of the House these are good choices.

Out of any of these I'd prefer Tim Scott the most.

Tim Scott from what I can tell is a good guy... but he is completely an empty suit as an effective Senator... much less President.  Haley is also, (although to a lesser extent) somewhat of an empty suit from a policy standpoint... but she is a great campaigner... and overall a good leader. (That said, she will probably never make any headway in a Republican Presidential primary... But I do think she has a good chance of being the VP nom).

[SCNCmod]

On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

[NewYorkExpress]

Not sure if we've missed it recently, but Pete Buttigeig and Kamala Harris has been going round the country recently fundraising for Democrats, and getting vastly different receptions. They've been to New Hampshire (Buttigeig), Texas (Harris) and South Carolina (both since June). Buttigeig has been much better received by his fellow Democrats than Harris too...

[President Johnson]

On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

Biden already said he's going to run, or intends to run. Should his deteriorate, Harris would absolutely run. She'd start out as the frontrunner for the nomination. Might not be the homerun she hopes for, though her winning the nomination then is still way more likely than not. So the chance neither of these two is on the ticket is marginal.

[Orwell]

If for some insane reason Biden doesn't run in 2024, I am backing Secretary Buttigieg. At this rate, much more likely, is I will be backing Secretary (Senator? Governor?) Buttigieg in 2028.

[LostInOhio]

On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

I disagree. Harris is the sitting VP and has a lot of popularity with Black voters, who are the base of the Democratic Party and largely decide the nominee. They are not going to vote for a random red state Governor.

[SCNCmod]

On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

Biden already said he's going to run, or intends to run. Should his deteriorate, Harris would absolutely run. She'd start out as the frontrunner for the nomination. Might not be the homerun she hopes for, though her winning the nomination then is still way more likely than not. So the chance neither of these two is on the ticket is marginal.

I think regardless what he has said- most ppl think he will not end up running. I never said Harris will not run- I said she will not get the nomination. (I think most ppl agree that she would not win the nomination).  Just look at current polling:

Harris is in a distant 7th place in 2024 NH Polling, which is the post recent 2024 Dem poll (she's only 1 pt above AOC).  Practically no one that I am aware of, thinks Harris would start off as the front runner if Biden doesn't run (even though in most cases the VP would be the front runner).

She gained no traction in the last Dem Presidential Primary- and her approval numbers have gone lower since then.

I'm not saying this is reflective of my personal opinion on Harris (I actually do not really have an opinion right now)... but I think this is objectively the general consensus currently regarding her prospects.  Regarding Biden- I do not think he should run for re-election, mainly due to age... which I think is definitely a majority opinion among Dems currently.

[SCNCmod]

On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

I disagree. Harris is the sitting VP and has a lot of popularity with Black voters, who are the base of the Democratic Party and largely decide the nominee. They are not going to vote for a random red state Governor.

Harris does not have a notable high popularity among Black voters overall.  Also- she had a very subpar performance in the last Presidential primary- and  a majority of Black voters supported white candidates over Harris.  Black voters will certainly vote for a "red state" governor (over half of the Dem party in NC... are Black.  So that is technically the base of Roy Coopers support).  Black voters will certainly lean towards supporting a Black candidate... but only if they think that candidate is strong enough to win a general election (for example- Obama didn't get much of the Black community support... until he proved himself by winning Iowa).

I do think Buttigieg could have an uphill battle with Black voters- but probably less so than he did in the last primary.  In general- I think Dem candidates from the South (Gov, Senators, etc) regardless of color- start out in the strongest position to gain the support of Southern black voters (as a general rule).

[Ferguson97]

There you go:
https://twitter.com/SaacksAttack/status/1579959325090787333

Well, Paul Ryan has never been wrong about Donald Trump before...

[RicardoBras]

Plenty of places in the Anglosphere (United States, Canada, England, Australia, etc.) still have a nasty habit of populations of central areas of cities, wealthy, educated European-origin with elitist left-leaning agendas such as identitarianism, veganism, and ecology, while the poorest groups, blacks, Latinos and minorities, are more represented in suburban areas and have tangible problems such as poor nutrition, unemployment and a lack of socio-economic perspective.

This, however, is not the worst possible political arrangement, if we think about the future of the United States, when the white population is overtaken and becomes a minority and, with that, leftists with agendas more connected to the majority of society will become prominent.

(Explanation from kilometers away from an amateur observer)

[NewYorkExpress]

Politico article speculating about backers of Wes Moore positioning him for a run for President.

Wes Moore is on the rise — and some of the Democrat’s close allies already have their sights on more than just the Maryland governor’s mansion.

Moore is poised to become just the third elected Black governor in U.S. history if he holds onto a wide polling lead in Maryland. He may well be the nation’s only Black chief executive in the country next year.


Accomplishing that feat comes with lofty expectations from a Democratic Party hungry for a new generation of leaders. Moore would also enter the governorship under intense scrutiny: a political neophyte promising to usher in an era of transformation in his first elected gig.


If such a high-pressure debut seems like cause for caution, his supporters aren’t tempering their enthusiasm.

Moore has racked up a slew of endorsements, including a rare political nod from Oprah Winfrey. Democratic luminaries are drawn to the energy and charisma he displays on the trail running for the state’s open governorship.


Even President Joe Biden chose a Democratic Party event in the Washington, D.C. suburb of Rockville as his unofficial midterm campaign kickoff. There Biden heaped praise on Moore, the former head of the Robin Hood Foundation, the anti-poverty nonprofit, as well as a captain who led troops in the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division in Afghanistan.



“Wes is the real deal. The real deal, folks. He’s a combat veteran. Only drawback is he’s a Rhodes Scholar,” Biden joked. “Former CEO of one of the biggest anti-poverty organizations in America,” he continued, “and if we all do our part, the next governor of Maryland.”

And while the president made no mention of his former boss, others in the party can’t help but compare Moore, a moderate, to the nation’s first Black president. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer not-so-subtly reached for not one, but two former presidents as comparisons when asked about Moore’s experience.

“Ronald Reagan didn’t have much experience before he became the governor of the largest state, except as an actor. Barack Obama had a few years [in the U.S. Senate],” said Hoyer, the No. 2 Democrat in the House, deflecting criticisms raised about Moore.

[NewYorkExpress]

Interesting comments from Pence in regards to backing Trump in 2024.

Former Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday hinted at his own plans for 2024 as he dodged a question about voting for former President Trump in the next election.

“Well, there might be somebody else I prefer more,” Pence said with a smile during an appearance at Georgetown University.


Pence was asked by a student in attendance if he would vote for Trump in 2024 if the former president is the GOP nominee.

“All my focus has been on the midterm elections, and it’ll stay that way for the next 20 days. But after that, we’ll be thinking about the future,” Pence said.

[SCNCmod]

Politico article speculating about backers of Wes Moore positioning him for a run for President.

Wes Moore is on the rise — and some of the Democrat’s close allies already have their sights on more than just the Maryland governor’s mansion.

Moore is poised to become just the third elected Black governor in U.S. history if he holds onto a wide polling lead in Maryland. He may well be the nation’s only Black chief executive in the country next year.


Accomplishing that feat comes with lofty expectations from a Democratic Party hungry for a new generation of leaders. Moore would also enter the governorship under intense scrutiny: a political neophyte promising to usher in an era of transformation in his first elected gig.


If such a high-pressure debut seems like cause for caution, his supporters aren’t tempering their enthusiasm.

Moore has racked up a slew of endorsements, including a rare political nod from Oprah Winfrey. Democratic luminaries are drawn to the energy and charisma he displays on the trail running for the state’s open governorship.


Even President Joe Biden chose a Democratic Party event in the Washington, D.C. suburb of Rockville as his unofficial midterm campaign kickoff. There Biden heaped praise on Moore, the former head of the Robin Hood Foundation, the anti-poverty nonprofit, as well as a captain who led troops in the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division in Afghanistan.



“Wes is the real deal. The real deal, folks. He’s a combat veteran. Only drawback is he’s a Rhodes Scholar,” Biden joked. “Former CEO of one of the biggest anti-poverty organizations in America,” he continued, “and if we all do our part, the next governor of Maryland.”

And while the president made no mention of his former boss, others in the party can’t help but compare Moore, a moderate, to the nation’s first Black president. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer not-so-subtly reached for not one, but two former presidents as comparisons when asked about Moore’s experience.

“Ronald Reagan didn’t have much experience before he became the governor of the largest state, except as an actor. Barack Obama had a few years [in the U.S. Senate],” said Hoyer, the No. 2 Democrat in the House, deflecting criticisms raised about Moore.

I was unfamiliar with Wes Moore.  But after briefly looking him up (and without knowing of any potential controversies etc)- I could definitely see him being on the Top of any 2024 Presidential list.

Veteran, Rhodes Scholar, interesting back story, charismatic, telegenic, early 40s, college football player, NY Times best selling author (so I'm sure he's an effective communicator).  At least on paper- he's pretty much perfect.

The only potential problem is he would basically have to start running for President immediately after he is elected Governor- which actually could prove to be almost impossible to successfully maneuver.
... But assuming this prevents him from running for the 2024 nominee (and based on my belief that Biden will not run in 2024 and Harris will not win the nomination)- I think Moore will be at the top of every VP shortlist (despite Maryland not being an important state electorally).

So for 2024, I could definitely see:

Roy Cooper/ Wes Moore
Andy Beshear/ Wes Moore
Buttigieg/ Moore  (2 Rhodes Scholars)

*or if Moore somehow runs, I would not be surprised by the ticket being a flip of one of the above

*I've always thought Gov Lujan-Grisham would be a strong candidate (and demographically I think for 2024, a Latina candidate would be a double benefit)... but I can't get a good read on how she is perceived in NM (even though she is likely soon to be a 2 term governor- he approval rating seems pretty low for a Dem in NM... not sure if that is due to national issue- or issues specific to Lujan-Grisham). 

*Also- if Demmings could somehow (probably unlikely) pull out at win in FL- she will be a top VP choice. (I think like Moore, it would be hard to immediately run for president that soon after taking office).

[SCNCmod]

I do like the fact that Beshear, Buttigieg, and Wes Moore are all under 45.

And at the same time all have a level of gravitas:
Beshear is the most popular Dem Gov.. I think nationwide currently.
Buttigieg is even a point above Biden in the NH primary poll (and won Iowa caucus last election).
Wes Moore is likely going to be elected Governor by over a 30pt margin.

Buttigieg/ Moore would be a ticket of... double vet, double Rhodes Scholar, double early/mid 40s. Certainly could at least have the potential of a really strong, dynamic ticket for 2024.

I think Dems would be well served in 2024 by a ticket of both names being early-mid 40s. In modern history- Dem nominees under 50 always win.  I also think Dems would be well served by a 2024 ticket that includes no members of Congress (House or Senate).

[Lambsbread]

Wes Moore and Josh Shapiro on the same ticket would be awesome, imo. Some may be worried about the regional imbalance, but they would both be great Governors and someday, great Presidents.

[henster]

Sadly Moore and Shapiro are coming in at the wrong moment. Way too green for Presidential runs in '24 or even as a VP pick. By the time their time comes in 2028 they'll either be trying to keep the WH after 8 years of Biden, beating an incumbent DeSantis or winning an open seat after Trump(best case). Of course either of them could turn out to be unpopular or lose reelection before then.

[SCNCmod]

Sadly Moore and Shapiro are coming in at the wrong moment. Way too green for Presidential runs in '24 or even as a VP pick. By the time their time comes in 2028 they'll either be trying to keep the WH after 8 years of Biden, beating an incumbent DeSantis or winning an open seat after Trump(best case). Of course either of them could turn out to be unpopular or lose reelection before then.

I agree that there is pretty much no way they could run for the nomination so soon after taking office.  But VP is definitely not off the table.. I definitely think the timing would not be great- but from an optics standpoint, unlike running for the nomination- the VP is chosen to join the ticket... and almost seen as a service to the nominee/ party/ etc.

Regarding DeSantis/ Trump winning ... I think its way to early to make a prediction- considering we have no clue who the Dem nominee will be (since most polls indicate that a majority of Dems do not think Biden will run for re-election... regardless what he is currently saying.  And Harris isn't even top 5 in the latest NH primary polls).

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump, in Texas hints at announcing run again.

Former President Trump said Saturday that he would “probably” have to run for the White House again, alluding to a potential 2024 rematch against President Biden.

At a rally in Robstown, Texas, Trump, who was campaigning for Republicans in the state, continued to push unfounded claims that he won the 2020 election.


“I ran twice. I won twice,” he said. “I did much better the second time than I did before.”

The former president noted he got “millions more votes in 2020 than 2016” and “more votes than any sitting president in the history of our country by far.”

“And now, in order to make our country successful, safe and glorious again, I will probably have to do it again,” he added.

[axiomsofdominion]

Just imagine thinking Harris will ever be president. Wild stuff. Leftist Dems would throw the election 100%.

If Biden runs in 2024 he loses. People who held their nose in 2020 wouldn't do a repeat.

Hard to say who a strong Dem would be at this point.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Biden runs in 2024 he loses.

Even against Trump?

[NewYorkExpress]

Kari Lake shutting down speculation that she will be Trump's running mate in 2024.

Arizona GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R) said on Sunday that she plans to serve two full terms as governor amid speculation that she could be former President Trump’s running mate if he runs in 2024.

On ABC’s “This Week,” co-anchor Jonathan Karl asked Lake if there is any truth to rumors that she is a potential vice presidential candidate.


Lake, who has embraced Trump’s backing during her campaign, has repeatedly pushed the former president’s false voter fraud claims and is in a tight race with Democrat Katie Hobbs, Arizona’s current secretary of state.

“My question is, if you’re elected, will you commit to serving all four years as governor?” Karl asked Lake.

“I’m going to serve eight years as governor of Arizona,” Lake replied.



Karl asked again if she intends to finish her term in office if she is elected.

“OK. I just — I’m hearing this a lot on the campaign trail, and what I think is happening, Jonathan, is the media is trying to scare the public I’m going to leave. I am devoted and dedicated to saving Arizona,” Lake told Karl.

“All four years?” Karl asked again.


“To turning it around. And I like to say I’m the fake news’s worst nightmare,” Lake continued.  “I’m going to be their worst nightmare in Arizona for eight years. I’m going to have two terms as governor.”

[henster]

On the Dem side-
I don't see Biden or Harris being on the ticket in 2024.

I'm not sure who will  be the top contenders... but I would not be surprised to see:
 
NC Gov Roy Cooper (Dem Gov in a Red/ Swing State. NC is 2022 #1 state to do business)

Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear (Currently the most popular Dem Governor in the country & in a red state)

Pete Buttigieg (has the most buzz from the 2020 field of candidates)

Biden already said he's going to run, or intends to run. Should his deteriorate, Harris would absolutely run. She'd start out as the frontrunner for the nomination. Might not be the homerun she hopes for, though her winning the nomination then is still way more likely than not. So the chance neither of these two is on the ticket is marginal.

I think regardless what he has said- most ppl think he will not end up running. I never said Harris will not run- I said she will not get the nomination. (I think most ppl agree that she would not win the nomination).  Just look at current polling:

Harris is in a distant 7th place in 2024 NH Polling, which is the post recent 2024 Dem poll (she's only 1 pt above AOC).  Practically no one that I am aware of, thinks Harris would start off as the front runner if Biden doesn't run (even though in most cases the VP would be the front runner).

She gained no traction in the last Dem Presidential Primary- and her approval numbers have gone lower since then.

I'm not saying this is reflective of my personal opinion on Harris (I actually do not really have an opinion right now)... but I think this is objectively the general consensus currently regarding her prospects.  Regarding Biden- I do not think he should run for re-election, mainly due to age... which I think is definitely a majority opinion among Dems currently.

I think if GOP wins the Senate with like 52-53 seats then there’d be intense pressure from a lot in the party to step aside. You know how Dems panic, I could see some Senators openly calling for him not to run. Of course then the question arises as to wether they’d rather take their bets with Kamala or rally behind some consensus candidate.

[NewYorkExpress]

Gavin Newsom vows to serve his full four year term if reelected.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday vowed he would serve a full four-year term if reelected in November, trying again to knock down speculation that he wants to replace Democrat Joe Biden on the ballot should he not seek a second term.

Newsom made the promise during an hourlong debate with his Republican challenger, state Sen. Brian Dahle — the only time the two candidates will meet face to face before voting ends on Nov. 8.

Newsom is expected to easily win reelection in November more than one year after beating back a recall attempt fueled by anger at his pandemic policies — which included the nation’s first statewide stay-at-home order. He has barely campaigned in California this year, instead spending money on ads in challenging Republican leaders Florida and Texas — potential opponents in a presidential election.

“Everyday Californians understand what is happening here in California and the governor is focused on running for president,” Dahle said during a debate that was broadcast live on the radio by KQED News. The debate will air again Sunday night on KQED Public Television.


Asked directly by co-moderator Marisa Lagos if he would commit to serving all four years if he’s reelected, Newsom said “yes.” Newsom defended his national campaigning, saying he “barely” left the state to take on national Republican leaders, who he says are banning books and “demeaning” the LGBT community.

[emailking]

Tonight Trump subtruthed this

I can't wait to vote for our favorite President - Donald J Trump! He's going to win in a massive landslide for the 3rd time! 2024 can't get here soon enough!

And replied "Thank You!"

[doopy pants]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BGOV/status/1584542484637573120