The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Yang:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/andrew-yang-hints-2024-third-party-run-biden-trump-rematch

When asked if he's considering a third-party run in 2024, Yang did not rule it out, particularly if two unpopular candidates like Biden and Trump are on the ballot again. 

"So there a lot of people that are not eager for a Biden-Trump rematch, but it seems like we may very well get that," Yang said. "And one thing I will say is that if that matchup is unappealing to you, then go to ForwardParty.com and let's make sure that Americans have more choices in your community but also in 2024."

Meanwhile, Rolling Stone reports more on the suggestion that Trump’s motivation for running for president again is to avoid jail:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-2024-criminal-probes-jan6-1384379/

In recent months, Trump has made clear to associates that the legal protections of occupying the Oval Office are front-of-mind for him, four people with knowledge of the situation tell Rolling Stone.

Trump has “spoken about how when you are the president of the United States, it is tough for politically motivated prosecutors to ‘get to you,” says one of the sources, who has discussed the issue with Trump this summer. “He says when [not if] he is president again, a new Republican administration will put a stop to the [Justice Department] investigation that he views as the Biden administration working to hit him with criminal charges — or even put him and his people in prison.”
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As Trump talks about running, the four sources say, he’s leaving confidants with the impression that, as his criminal exposure has increased, so has his focus on the legal protections of the executive branch.

[NewYorkExpress]

Mitch McConnell predicts that there will be a crowded GOP Primary field in 2024.

Mitch McConnell sent a clear signal on Tuesday that he does not think Donald Trump will clear the Republican presidential field even if he decides to run in 2024.

Asked how he would handle a third presidential bid by Trump, McConnell pivoted. "I think we're going to have a crowded field for president," the Senate Republican leader said. "I assume that most of that'll unfold later and people will be picking their candidates during a crowded primary field."

Which may seem banal -- unless you know that McConnell never says anything without a) thinking about it first and b) meaning exactly what he says.

Given that, it's right to read McConnell's answer as a sort of "come on in, the water's fine" moment, an attempt to ensure that aspiring Republican contenders wouldn't get spooked by Trump being in the race.

[Mr. Morden]

The WaPo reports that people “in Biden’s inner circle” say that he’s far more likely to run in ’24 if Trump jumps in the race:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/19/biden-trump-rematch/

Biden may seek reelection in any case, people in his inner circle say, but if Trump runs, Biden is far more likely to do so. And if Trump holds off, it will be far easier for other Democrats to approach Biden about letting someone else take on a younger Republican nominee.

Also:

Everyone around Biden is operating as if he is running, with plans pointing toward April 2023 for a formal announcement. Close associates say his low poll numbers, and the ongoing discussion among Democrats of whether Biden is their best option, motivate rather than deflate him.

“He feels he has something to prove,” said one person close to Biden, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer a candid assessment. “It just makes him more enraged.”

Meanwhile, here are a couple of denials from the past week or so from some other Dems:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/11/politics/biden-democratic-primary-challenge-2024/index.html

Polis campaign spokesperson Amber Miller said he's "not considering anything like that [a run for president] and is focused on running the state of Colorado. If he is re-elected, he plans to serve his entire term as governor of Colorado."

And:

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1547405925547474945

However:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/18/2024-election-gavin-newsom-kamala-harris-engage-with-donors.html

Top Democrats have already started to rub elbows with the influential people who could propel a White House run in 2024. Vice President Kamala Harris has been in touch with a small group of allies who helped to organize her successful California campaigns for district attorney, attorney general and U.S. Senate, and has held private meetings of at least three supporters in her residences, according to a person briefed on the matter. Harris has said in interviews that she plans to run on Biden's ticket in 2024.
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Harris is not the only Biden ally who appears to be making inroads with wealthy financiers as the president considers his political future. A Wall Street executive who raised money for Biden's 2020 campaign said he has heard from both Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom in recent weeks.

[Lambsbread]

Biden feels like he has something to prove? Huh, I wonder what he could do about that.

[Sir Mohamed]

Re: Newsom: His statements don't mean anything; HRC in 2014 said she's not going to run, as did other candidates a few years before announcing (even Obama in 2005/2006, I believe). Don't see Newsom challenging Biden, though I'm increasingly confident he'll run w/o Biden in the race.

[Ferguson97]

It's kind of funny that everyone is just playing a game of chicken with waiting for Trump and Biden to officially announce.

I'm surprised we haven't gotten some random person announcing super early ala John Delaney.

[Utah Neolib]

It's kind of funny that everyone is just playing a game of chicken with waiting for Trump and Biden to officially announce.

I'm surprised we haven't gotten some random person announcing super early ala John Delaney.

We got Corey Stapleton of all people in the Republican primary.

[Comrade Funk]

The WaPo reports that people “in Biden’s inner circle” say that he’s far more likely to run in ’24 if Trump jumps in the race:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/19/biden-trump-rematch/

Biden may seek reelection in any case, people in his inner circle say, but if Trump runs, Biden is far more likely to do so. And if Trump holds off, it will be far easier for other Democrats to approach Biden about letting someone else take on a younger Republican nominee.

Also:

Everyone around Biden is operating as if he is running, with plans pointing toward April 2023 for a formal announcement. Close associates say his low poll numbers, and the ongoing discussion among Democrats of whether Biden is their best option, motivate rather than deflate him.

“He feels he has something to prove,” said one person close to Biden, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer a candid assessment. “It just makes him more enraged.”

The ego on this dude

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

If he's facing similarly dire polling numbers in, say, late 2023 against declared challengers then Biden will probably see the writing on the wall and call it quits. LBJ (far more of a power hungry egotist than Biden) did similarly.

[goin bezerk]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AshleyRParker/status/1550214521117184002

[LostInOhio]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AshleyRParker/status/1550214521117184002

One of the few most constant rules of American politics is that the VPs of one-term administrations almost always get blown out either in the primary or in the general. Walter Mondale, Dan Quayle, John C. Breckenridge, etc.

He’ll get third in Iowa and drop out

[NewYorkExpress]

Gavin Newsom is running full page ads in Texas newspapers trolling Greg Abbott, a possible 2024 candidate for the Republicans.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is running full-page ads in Texas newspapers Friday trolling Republican Gov. Greg Abbott to highlight a new California gun law modeled on the Lone Star State’s restrictive abortion law.

The ads, first shared with NBC News, will run in the Austin American-Statesman, Houston Chronicle and El Paso Times. They modify an Abbott quote about the state's abortion ban and promote “California’s answer to Texas’ perverse bill.”

“If Texas can ban abortion and endanger lives, California can ban deadly weapons of war and save lives. If Governor Abbott truly wants to protect the right to life, we urge him to follow California’s lead,” the ad reads.

The move is the latest example of Newsom's foray into national politics after buying TV ads in Florida knocking GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis and decrying Democratic timidity while in Washington last week.

I have to admit, in the scenario where Biden doesn't run, a Harris vs Newsom primary would be interesting to watch.

[Barack Oganja]

I would pay money to see a debate with Pence and Trump in it, I might treat that like the super bowl

[MarkD]

Gavin Newsom is running full page ads in Texas newspapers trolling Greg Abbott, a possible 2024 candidate for the Republicans.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is running full-page ads in Texas newspapers Friday trolling Republican Gov. Greg Abbott to highlight a new California gun law modeled on the Lone Star State’s restrictive abortion law.

The ads, first shared with NBC News, will run in the Austin American-Statesman, Houston Chronicle and El Paso Times. They modify an Abbott quote about the state's abortion ban and promote “California’s answer to Texas’ perverse bill.”

“If Texas can ban abortion and endanger lives, California can ban deadly weapons of war and save lives. If Governor Abbott truly wants to protect the right to life, we urge him to follow California’s lead,” the ad reads.

The move is the latest example of Newsom's foray into national politics after buying TV ads in Florida knocking GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis and decrying Democratic timidity while in Washington last week.

I have to admit, in the scenario where Biden doesn't run, a Harris vs Newsom primary would be interesting to watch.

Congratulations, Gov. Newsom, on contributing to, and promoting more, American divisiveness.

[NewYorkExpress]

The Turning Point USA Summit in Tallahassee was this weekend. Trump again hints at a 2024 run. Also speaking, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley and Ron DeSantis.

Former President Donald Trump will address supporters Saturday evening at Turning Point USA's Student Action Summit in Tampa, Florida.


Trump's appearance at the annual event comes after several other prominent Republicans – including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas; Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo.; and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – addressed the crowd of young attendees.

https://www.fox13news.com/news/we-may-just-have-to-do-it-again-trump-teases-another-run-during-speech-at-tampa-summit

Trump was the keynote speaker Saturday night. During his speech, he pushed back against COVID-19 restrictions, cancel culture, Critical Race Theory, and spoke about election fraud.

"I ran twice, I won twice and did much better the second time than I did the first, getting millions of millions more votes than we did in 2016 and likewise getting more votes than any sitting president in the history of our country by far," Trump said. "And now we may just have to do it again."

[NewYorkExpress]

Al Gore on Meet the Press denies interest in another run.

Former Vice President Al Gore on Sunday knocked down the notion of launching another presidential bid, calling himself a “recovering politician.”

During an appearance on NBC’s “Meet The Press,” moderator Chuck Todd asked Gore about Australia’s last election, which was focused on climate change issues, and about Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s (D) 2020 presidential campaign, which was heavily focused on climate change. Todd asked Gore whether he could launch a similar campaign.


“Jay Inslee tried to run a climate-focused campaign and it didn’t get off the ground. Why not you, Al Gore?” Todd asked.

“Why not me, as a candidate?” Gore replied.

“Leading a climate change presidential campaign in the future,” Todd asked Gore.

“Oh, well, thank you for making the suggestion,” Gore told Todd. “You know, I’m a recovering politician. And the longer I go without a relapse, the less likely one becomes.”

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.fox13news.com/news/we-may-just-have-to-do-it-again-trump-teases-another-run-during-speech-at-tampa-summit

Trump was the keynote speaker Saturday night. During his speech, he pushed back against COVID-19 restrictions, cancel culture, Critical Race Theory, and spoke about election fraud.

"I ran twice, I won twice and did much better the second time than I did the first, getting millions of millions more votes than we did in 2016 and likewise getting more votes than any sitting president in the history of our country by far," Trump said. "And now we may just have to do it again."

The stronger hint from that speech was this part:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-drops-major-hints-possible-2024-presidential-run-culturepwar-tinged-tpusa-speech

"If I stayed home, if I announced that I was not going to run for office, the persecution of Donald Trump would immediately stop," Trump also said later in the speech. "But that's what they want me to do. And you know what? There's no chance I do that."

[Mr. Morden]

Liz Cheney is asked if she’ll run for prez in 2024, and again says that she hasn’t decided yet:

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3572066-cheney-reiterates-she-hasnt-decided-on-running-for-president-in-2024/

“At this point, I haven’t made a decision on 2024 …. I’ll make a decision on 2024 down the road,” Cheney said, adding that she is focused on her work with the Jan. 6 committee.

Meanwhile, Pence is headed back to NH next month:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2024-watch-former-vice-president-mike-pence-returning-new-hampshire

[GeorgiaModerate]

Al Gore on Meet the Press denies interest in another run.

Former Vice President Al Gore on Sunday knocked down the notion of launching another presidential bid, calling himself a “recovering politician.”

During an appearance on NBC’s “Meet The Press,” moderator Chuck Todd asked Gore about Australia’s last election, which was focused on climate change issues, and about Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s (D) 2020 presidential campaign, which was heavily focused on climate change. Todd asked Gore whether he could launch a similar campaign.


“Jay Inslee tried to run a climate-focused campaign and it didn’t get off the ground. Why not you, Al Gore?” Todd asked.

“Why not me, as a candidate?” Gore replied.

“Leading a climate change presidential campaign in the future,” Todd asked Gore.

“Oh, well, thank you for making the suggestion,” Gore told Todd. “You know, I’m a recovering politician. And the longer I go without a relapse, the less likely one becomes.”

That's a great line!

[NewYorkExpress]

Pence and Trump both delivering Speeches in Washington D.C over the next few days. Pence will be speaking before the Heritage Foundation, while Trump will be giving the keynote address to the America First Policy Institute's Summit.

Former Vice President Mike Pence will sound very much like a White House hopeful looking to lead his party beyond former President Donald Trump when he touts his "freedom agenda" for the Republican Party in a speech in Washington.

Pence will deliver remarks about a proposed conservative agenda at the Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank. The trip -- though originally slated to take place Monday evening, one day before Trump makes his first visit to the nation's capital since leaving office in January 2021 -- was postponed after Pence's flight into the Washington, DC, area was diverted because of storms, according to John Cooper, a spokesman for the think tank. It will be rescheduled for another day.

"The Freedom Agenda provides a clear roadmap for conservative leaders looking to connect deeply with the American people on their top priorities," Pence plans to say, according to prepared remarks obtained by CNN. "It is built upon the belief that Americans want to create more economic opportunity, restore American leadership on the world stage, and are proud of traditional American culture and want to preserve it."

His prepared remarks touch on the importance of building a "lasting majority" and the need for "unified conservative action" as opposed to looking backward.

"Some people may choose to focus on the past," Pence's planned remarks read. "But I believe conservatives must focus on the future."

The speech had been planned for 24 hours before Trump will deliver keynote remarks at the America First Policy Institute's summit, a two-day event in Washington featuring elected Republicans and alumni of the Trump administration to discuss ideas for an "America first agenda."

[Lambsbread]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this, but Manchin has declined to endorse Biden for re-election.

“I don’t know who is going to be running. If Joe Biden runs again and he is the Democratic nominee, depending on who the Republican nominee is, we will just have to wait and see,” Manchin told Cuomo. “I am not predicting anything or how I would support or not support, or get involved or not. But I can tell you this, whoever the elected president is – Democrat, Republican, independent – every one of us should pray they succeed. I am going to do everything I can to make that person successful.”

[President Johnson]

Warren about 2024 on MSNBC, says that she supports Biden and runs for reelection to the senate.

https://twitter.com/MaddowBlog/status/1552483548095029249

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this, but Manchin has declined to endorse Biden for re-election.

“I don’t know who is going to be running. If Joe Biden runs again and he is the Democratic nominee, depending on who the Republican nominee is, we will just have to wait and see,” Manchin told Cuomo. “I am not predicting anything or how I would support or not support, or get involved or not. But I can tell you this, whoever the elected president is – Democrat, Republican, independent – every one of us should pray they succeed. I am going to do everything I can to make that person successful.”

If he runs for President, it'll be as an independent

[Mr. Morden]

Kristi Noem was on CBS News’s “The Takeout” podcast a few days ago, where Major Garrett was pressing her on whether she’ll run for president in 2024:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/political-podcast-the-takeout/

While she did say that she’d back Trump if he runs for president, she dodged when asked about a scenario in which he didn’t run.  At the 3 minute mark, Garrett tried a different tack:

Garrett: "Well let me ask the question in reverse: Do you want to say that you’re *not* going to run for president in 2024?"

Noem: "No, I wouldn’t say that.  I would just say that I’m focused on South Dakota.  That’s my priority.  And from there, we’ll see where people choose to…I don’t rule it out, just because people bring it up quite often.  And there are several people out there talking about running for president.  I’m not convinced that it has to be me.  But I do think that we’ve got to have good people who are willing to step up and serve."

Meanwhile, here’s the latest from Trump:

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hard-run-against-biden-in-2024-2022-7

While appearing on The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show on Friday, the former president was asked: "Knowing what you know and seeing what you see of Joe Biden, how do you not run in 2024?"

"Very hard for me not to run, to be honest," Trump responded.

"And also, the polls indicate that, from the Republican standpoint, it would be easy. And I think from, like… I was up 11 points against Biden the other day. I don't think he's gonna run."
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"I'll make a decision fairly soon. And my… I must tell you — and I think I can say this — in my mind, I've already made the decision," the former president said.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren about 2024 on MSNBC, says that she supports Biden and runs for reelection to the senate.

https://twitter.com/MaddowBlog/status/1552483548095029249

This is consistent with what she's said before, that she's "running for Senate in 2024, not president".  But the thing is, she always pairs that with the fact that in her words "Joe Biden is running", and so there's no open contest on the Democratic side.  On the occasions where someone tries to pin her down on what she might do if Biden *doesn't* run again, she always dodges.  E.g.:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=348884.msg8237637#msg8237637
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=348884.msg8577894#msg8577894