The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Jonathan Allen has elaborated on Trump feeling like he needs to jump into the race before the midterms….he thinks if he does so before the midterms, he might be able to deter DeSantis from entering the race:

https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-ron-desantis-2657462304/

Previously having written, "While many Trump confidants believe he should wait until after November's midterm elections — and caution that he has not yet made a final decision about running — some say he could move more quickly to harness supporters and deny fuel to the busload of GOP hopefuls in his rearview mirror," Allen explained to host Jonathan Lemire that recent developments are putting pressure on Trump to announce sooner rather than later.
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DeSantis can't make an immediate jump into the 2024 presidential race because he is still running for governor and will be on the ballot in November. Allen added that has placed Trump under the gun to announce before the midterm election if he has any hope of keeping DeSantis out of the the race at all.

"He [DeSantis] can't start running for president before his election in Florida, meaning Trump has a window between now and the election date to get in before DeSantis, which might have the effect of boxing DeSantis out," Allen explained. "Most people believe DeSantis is the person who is strongest other than Trump right now in the Republican circles, of course, it's early."

"We've seen straw winners before, like former President Ron Paul and former President Michelle Bachman," he joked before cautioning, "Take the straw polls with a grain of salt, but it is certainly true when you talk to Republican voters there's a lot of energy for DeSantis. Trump wants to take that oxygen away from him before it becomes a conflict."

[MarkD]

- snip -
Meanwhile, Cotton will be in Iowa on July 7th:

https://twitter.com/StoryCountyGOP/status/1531758508818849793

And in a final piece of Iowa news, four potential 2024 GOP presidential candidates have “placed paid ads in the Iowa GOP’s state convention tabloid – which lists the agenda for the state party’s June 11th gathering.”:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/placing-ads-iowa-gop-trump-potential-2024-contenders

The four candidates to do so are Trump, Pompeo, Rick Scott and Tim Scott.

Waitaminute, .....
Because Story County, Iowa, was named after Supreme Court Justice Joseph Story, the county's GOP organization decided that when they hold an annual dinner, they'll commemorate "Judge" Joseph Story by naming the dinner after him?!? Yes, he was one of the GOAT Justices, but still, .....

[NewYorkExpress]

The Jacobin openly endorses a third Bernie Sanders run, even if Biden is running for reelection.

[Lord Halifax]

The Jacobin openly endorses a third Bernie Sanders run, even if Biden is running for reelection.

What a ridiculous idea.

[NewYorkExpress]

David Axelrod takes the knives out on Biden, says his age would be a liabilty should he run for a second term.

David Axelrod, chief strategist for former President Obama’s two winning presidential campaigns, told the New York Times in an interview that President Biden's age would be a liability if he runs for a second term in 2024.

Is this is a sign that Obama does not want Biden to run again?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/zacjanderson/status/1535956457572777985?cxt=HHwWgoC-wdSQ6NAq...

It's almost like he has further aspirations beyond getting reelected as governor...

[Mr. Morden]

Andrew Yang on 2024:

https://www.deseret.com/2022/6/9/23116180/is-andrew-yang-running-for-president-2024-forward-party-democracy-hanging-by-a-thread

I ask how long it will be before we have an independent in the White House, and Yang can’t say, but he thinks it’s sooner than most believe is possible. “If it winds up being Trump versus Biden in ’24, a poll just came out that said 58% of Americans would want an alternative,” he says.

Does that mean he will run? Yang is coy in his response, but he doesn’t say no. It’s more likely, he says, that he’d throw his support behind a third candidate.

But when I press, he admits that anything is on the table. “I’m always willing to consider something I think is going to be good for the country, you know? So I wouldn’t rule anything out.”

[Mr. Morden]

WaPo has a story here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/06/11/republican-president-2024-trump/

that’s about the machinations of the prospective 2024 GOP presidential candidates:

With months to go before the midterm elections, the shadow campaign for the 2024 Republican nomination is well underway, with at least 15 potential candidates traveling the country, drawing up plans, huddling with donors or testing out messages at various levels of preparation. The quadrennial circus — described by more than 20 people with direct knowledge who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private machinations — has kicked into gear despite the public hints from Trump that he too plans to join the scrum “a third time.”

Interviews with over a dozen GOP operatives indicate he is not clearing the field, and a range of candidates plan to take him on from different angles.

Among the candidates they say are currently talking behind closed doors to aides and donors about their 2024 options are Cotton, DeSantis, Pence, and Pompeo.

On Pence:

Allies are eyeing a spring 2023 announcement.

On Cotton:

Similarly, Cotton, who has been to Iowa and spoke at the Reagan library, has been revising his slide presentation, which at once point featured five policy areas that explain why he’s electable. “He is diligently putting together a foundation to run,” said Eberhart, the donor who has met with him. “He is very dialed in on New Hampshire.”

And then there’s DeSantis:

Without mentioning Trump, he has told donors, “No one’s nomination is inevitable,” according to a person to whom his comments have been relayed.

Beating Trump’s 2020 margin of three percentage points in Florida has become a key campaign goal, according to three people familiar with the conversations. They said DeSantis’s wife, Casey, a former television host and among a small circle of confidants, wants him to run for president. The couple believes that the governor’s skills are uniquely matched to the current political climate, and are wary of waiting six years, by which time the tides may have shifted.

The story also notes that DeSantis has been in contact with Peter Thiel.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump is considering a campaign launch before the midterms close to the Florida Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee in order to show DeSantis “who the boss is”:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/donald-trump-ron-desantis-florida-1366990/

Donald Trump in recent months has been telling confidants that he may launch his 2024 presidential campaign early — and that he’s considering launching it in Florida to stick it to Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Trump has kicked around staging a large, flashy launch rally (with fireworks, of course) that would announce his White House bid before the 2022 midterm elections, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

People who’ve spoken to Trump say that one reason he’s eying the Sunshine State is to assert his dominance over an ascendant DeSantis, who — if they both run in 2024 — would likely be the former president’s most formidable competitor in a primary fight for the GOP nomination. One of the sources said Trump’s motivation is to show the governor “who the boss is” in the modern-day GOP.

Trump, the sources say, has even asked some associates if they had opinions on any good venues or event spaces — that just happen to be located close to the Florida’s Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee.

[2016]

Breast Cancer Survivor & Governor DeSantis Wife Casey DeSantis wants her husband to run for POTUS in 2024

https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022/06/13/report-desantiss-wife-wants-him-to-run-for-president-n475827

[Sir Mohamed]

Pence again making some waves, not that he's going anywhere.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1536544015587233793

[Mr. Morden]

There Has to Be a Backup Plan. There’s a Backup Plan, Right?

On a Tuesday evening in April, nearly half a century after Joe Biden first publicly mused about running for president, an unsettled cross section of the Democratic Establishment assembled at Pinehurst, a golf resort in North Carolina. Inflation was at a 40-year high, Biden’s disapproval rating sat at 56 percent, and editors at the New York Times were readying a front-page report about how his signature achievement — $1.9 trillion in coronavirus-relief spending — has “barely registered with voters.” The lobbyists, donors, staffers, and elected officials were gathering for the spring policy meeting of the Democratic Governors Association, and the scheduled sessions concerned such topics as health care and diversity in governance. But between panel discussions, in the hallways and at the cocktail reception on the lawn, conversation shifted from grim — the midterms — to grimmer: the state of the party’s planning for 2024, when Biden will stand for reelection on the eve of his 82nd birthday.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/05/biden-2024-democrats-search-for-alternative.html

I finally read this story. Here are the relevant bits:

Buttigieg has kept in sporadic touch with some major donors from his campaign and has indicated to them that he is aware of the brutal dynamics pummeling the president. He is always careful to avoid even the appearance of wanting to discuss his own political future on these calls, according to people familiar with the conversations. But he hasn’t shut down the PAC and nonprofit associated with his old campaign — they’ve been kept dormant but alive by ex-aides — and he hasn’t shied from some of the kinds of meetings a presidential aspirant tends to chase. This spring, when the Democratic National Committee’s finance council met quietly in Charleston and both Biden and Harris passed on attending, Buttigieg went. His presence was explained to some of the donors, somewhat implausibly, as simply due to his being the highest-ranking Cabinet official who could spare the time. Shortly thereafter, he formally brought one of his top political aides from the campaign onto the DOT payroll.

Every one of these moves can be read innocently, and people close to Buttigieg say that as a careful curator of his own career, he is unlikely to run in 2024 even if Biden were to step aside, partially because it would be hard to see an immediate path against Harris. (Also: Their husbands have become close, and Buttigieg and Harris themselves have been friendly ever since he played Pence in her 2020 debate prep.) Still, the simplest through-line of these data points is that they support at least a just-in-case strategy meant to keep him in the broader game.

Buttigieg isn’t alone. A handful of senators are doing the basic work they would need to do if the opportunity to run opened up, while maintaining plausible deniability that this activity is just standard political hygiene since they’re up for reelection in 2024. It’s unclear if any would truly move against Harris — their former colleague and potentially the first woman president — but recent federal filings show that Klobuchar, Booker, and Warren are all still spending heavily on digital investments or fund-raising consulting. Insider speculation rose around Warren especially after she wrote a widely read Times op-ed in April about how Democrats could save themselves before the midterms. (Her subsequent present-tense insistence on Meet the Press that Biden “is running for reelection in 2024 and I’m supporting him” didn’t deter the chatter.) Booker and Klobuchar have both visited New Hampshire recently for the state party, and the latter was at the DNC donor summit, too. She has kept in touch with staffers and consultants from her previous run.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders doesn’t swear off the possibility of another presidential run, but does say he won’t run if Biden does:

"I think it's a little too early," the Vermont independent, who caucuses with Democrats, told CNN when asked if he would back Biden in 2024. "I think Biden will probably run again, and if he runs again, I will support him."

Asked if he would run against Biden in a primary, Sanders said: "Not if he runs."

Meanwhile, WH Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre says that Biden “plans to” run:

https://twitter.com/presssec/status/1536477522988343296

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton huddles with donors to talk about his 2024 presidential campaign plans:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/14/cotton-big-donors-2024-presidential-race-00039476

Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton huddled with two dozen of his top donors Tuesday morning to describe his planning for a potential 2024 White House campaign, telling them a comeback bid by former President Donald Trump wouldn’t deter him from running.

During the meeting at the Hay-Adams hotel in Washington, which was described by two attendees, Cotton said he was prepared to run and detailed the work he’s done to develop an infrastructure for a national campaign. He emphasized that he wouldn’t defer to any other would-be candidates — including Trump — and said he planned to make a final decision on whether to run after this year’s midterm election.

[Mr. Morden]

Pritzker headed to NH:

https://www.sj-r.com/story/news/politics/state/2022/06/14/illinois-gov-jb-pritzkers-new-hampshire-stirs-white-house-speculation/7538292001/

Gov. JB Pritzker will be the keynote speaker at the New Hampshire Democratic Party's annual state convention on Saturday party officials have confirmed, fueling talk that he is feeling out a run for the White House in 2024.

Pritzker will be at the convention in Manchester in person.

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton is asked about his recent huddle with donors, and what it means about his 2024 ambitions:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/tom-cotton-teases-prospect-2024-presidential-run-well-see-what-happens

SEN. TOM COTTON: "Well, we have an annual event. We have lots of folks coming in from across Arkansas and across the country, who have been friends and supporters of mine for many years and it was great to see so many friends. We had a lot of good conversations about what we're going to do to help Republicans win the Senate and the House later this year. And then what the future holds.

We've got one election in front of us. It's pretty important that we win back the Congress. So I'll take that first at that election first, and then we'll see what happens after the midterms."

[Coldstream]

Cotton huddles with donors to talk about his 2024 presidential campaign plans:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/14/cotton-big-donors-2024-presidential-race-00039476

Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton huddled with two dozen of his top donors Tuesday morning to describe his planning for a potential 2024 White House campaign, telling them a comeback bid by former President Donald Trump wouldn’t deter him from running.

During the meeting at the Hay-Adams hotel in Washington, which was described by two attendees, Cotton said he was prepared to run and detailed the work he’s done to develop an infrastructure for a national campaign. He emphasized that he wouldn’t defer to any other would-be candidates — including Trump — and said he planned to make a final decision on whether to run after this year’s midterm election.

To be fair, Cotton would have to say that he wouldn’t be deterred to donors or else they’d never give to him whenever he does run - this doesn’t actually mean he’s likely to run in 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

Cotton huddles with donors to talk about his 2024 presidential campaign plans:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/14/cotton-big-donors-2024-presidential-race-00039476

Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton huddled with two dozen of his top donors Tuesday morning to describe his planning for a potential 2024 White House campaign, telling them a comeback bid by former President Donald Trump wouldn’t deter him from running.

During the meeting at the Hay-Adams hotel in Washington, which was described by two attendees, Cotton said he was prepared to run and detailed the work he’s done to develop an infrastructure for a national campaign. He emphasized that he wouldn’t defer to any other would-be candidates — including Trump — and said he planned to make a final decision on whether to run after this year’s midterm election.

To be fair, Cotton would have to say that he wouldn’t be deterred to donors or else they’d never give to him whenever he does run - this doesn’t actually mean he’s likely to run in 2024.

He may "have to say it", and yet some of the others, including some who have visited early primary states, have said the opposite:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/01/politics/tim-scott-donald-trump-2024/index.html

"Of course," Scott told the Post and Courier of South Carolina when asked about whether he would support Trump in 2024. Asked about his own interest in the 2024 race, Scott noted that he is running for reelection in 2022 (he is a heavy favorite), adding: "Well, at this point, I'm not running for president at all. I'm not going to answer a hypothetical question."

Scott's decision to fall in line with Trump is in keeping with the general strategy of other Republicans mentioned as possible 2024 candidates.

"I would not run if President Trump ran, and I would talk to him about it," said former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley this spring, comments that came after she drew national headlines for suggesting that the GOP had moved beyond Trump in the wake of the January 6 riot at the US Capitol. ("He's not going to run for federal office again," Haley predicted back then. "I don't think he's going to be in the picture. I don't think he can. He's fallen so far.")

Florida Sen. Rick Scott, another regularly mentioned 2024 candidate, has said he is not running and that Trump "ought to do it again." Fellow Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has pledged not to run if Trump decides to do so again, calling the billionaire businessman "the most popular and most influential Republican in America."

[Mr. Morden]

Team Biden is eyeing a Spring 2023 campaign launch:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/17/biden-signals-run-for-reelection/

President Biden’s advisers have been studying a spring 2023 reelection announcement that would echo the timetable of former president Barack Obama.
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In public and private, Biden himself has emphasized that he is running, effectively shutting down any discussion of the topic between the president and his close advisers, according to interviews with more than a dozen Democrats close to the White House, most of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
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Some Democrats are now hoping Biden officially declares his candidacy for another term right after the midterms this November, but aides say that is unlikely at this point. That timing might be awkward if Democrats suffer devastating losses as expected.

Meanwhile, Asa Hutchinson talks about he’s “laying a foundation” for a ’24 run:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3526120-arkansas-governor-says-hes-working-to-lay-a-foundation-for-2024-run/

“I want to be a voice of problem solving in government and not creating chaos, and so that is my mission,” Hutchinson said. “I am doing what is necessary to lay a foundation for 2024, but let me assure you my first priority through the remainder of my term is Arkansas.”

The two-term Arkansas governor is term limited and will leave the role in January.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

David Axelrod takes the knives out on Biden, says his age would be a liabilty should he run for a second term.

David Axelrod, chief strategist for former President Obama’s two winning presidential campaigns, told the New York Times in an interview that President Biden's age would be a liability if he runs for a second term in 2024.

Is this is a sign that Obama does not want Biden to run again?

And the Democratic Party was is such great shape after two Obama terms...

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary Clinton says a 2024 presidential run by her is “out of the question”:

https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-2024-presidential-campaign-biden-democrats-2022-6

While speaking with the Financial Times, the former first lady and US senator said that she expected President Joe Biden to stand for reelection in two years. When asked if she could view herself launching a campaign — after unsuccessfully challenging Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination in 2008 and losing the general election to Donald Trump in 2016 — Clinton quickly waved off such a proposition.

"No, out of the question," she said.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders was in Iowa on Friday to support striking UAW workers:

https://www.thehawkeye.com/story/news/2022/06/19/case-new-holland-strikers-react-bernie-sanders-burlington-iowa-visit/7622573001/

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Hillary Clinton says a 2024 presidential run by her is “out of the question”:

https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-2024-presidential-campaign-biden-democrats-2022-6

While speaking with the Financial Times, the former first lady and US senator said that she expected President Joe Biden to stand for reelection in two years. When asked if she could view herself launching a campaign — after unsuccessfully challenging Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination in 2008 and losing the general election to Donald Trump in 2016 — Clinton quickly waved off such a proposition.

"No, out of the question," she said.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders was in Iowa on Friday to support striking UAW workers:

https://www.thehawkeye.com/story/news/2022/06/19/case-new-holland-strikers-react-bernie-sanders-burlington-iowa-visit/7622573001/

I'm starting to think that if Biden doesn't run for whatever reason, Bernie gives it one last shot.

[NewYorkExpress]

Hillary Clinton says a 2024 presidential run by her is “out of the question”:

https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-2024-presidential-campaign-biden-democrats-2022-6

While speaking with the Financial Times, the former first lady and US senator said that she expected President Joe Biden to stand for reelection in two years. When asked if she could view herself launching a campaign — after unsuccessfully challenging Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination in 2008 and losing the general election to Donald Trump in 2016 — Clinton quickly waved off such a proposition.

"No, out of the question," she said.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders was in Iowa on Friday to support striking UAW workers:

https://www.thehawkeye.com/story/news/2022/06/19/case-new-holland-strikers-react-bernie-sanders-burlington-iowa-visit/7622573001/

I'm starting to think that if Biden doesn't run for whatever reason, Bernie gives it one last shot.

Bernie really should step aside and let a younger member of his wing of the party, like AOC run instead.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Hillary Clinton says a 2024 presidential run by her is “out of the question”:

https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-2024-presidential-campaign-biden-democrats-2022-6

While speaking with the Financial Times, the former first lady and US senator said that she expected President Joe Biden to stand for reelection in two years. When asked if she could view herself launching a campaign — after unsuccessfully challenging Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination in 2008 and losing the general election to Donald Trump in 2016 — Clinton quickly waved off such a proposition.

"No, out of the question," she said.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders was in Iowa on Friday to support striking UAW workers:

https://www.thehawkeye.com/story/news/2022/06/19/case-new-holland-strikers-react-bernie-sanders-burlington-iowa-visit/7622573001/

I'm starting to think that if Biden doesn't run for whatever reason, Bernie gives it one last shot.

Bernie really should step aside and let a younger member of his wing of the party, like AOC run instead.

I don't think they're in the same "wing" though. Bernie is part of the old left, AOC is part of the new left.

AOC is fundamentally unelectable and would lose in a landslide if she was the nominee and I think Bernie knows that. A less "woke" less-elite progressive like Ro Khanna would be a better Sanders ideological successor, but I don't think he runs.

The truth is that 150-year old Bernie would still be more electable than basically any other prominent progressive, because the rest of them have been sucked into the culture wars and being online "influencers". The squad has no working-class appeal, Bernie does.

[Mr. Morden]

Some updates from Haley and Pompeo about their decision timelines:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-mulling-run-president-not-waiting-trump

"I don't think I have to make that decision until the first of next year," Haley told Fox News. "I've never lost a race. I'm not going to start now.  If there's a place for me, I will put 1000% and we'll finish it."

"We will turn to that very question come the end of this year, the beginning of next year," said Pompeo. "We will pray, we will work."