The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Tucker Carlson visiting Iowa:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/tucker-carlson-to-speak-at-iowa-summit-raising-eyebrows-and-speculation-of-a-presidential-run/

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1518992834384343041?s=20&t=LN08rUUxu...

Trump is running in 2024 so he won't run then, but he would be a formidable candidate in 2028.

[Mr. Morden]

More Marianne Williamson:

https://thehill.com/news/campaign/3464113-progressives-eye-new-strategies-in-case-of-2024-opening/?rl=1

Asked if she’d consider running for president again herself, she did not shut the door on the idea completely.

“I just want to do whatever I can to help interrupt the status quo and be part of the solution,” Williamson said. “What that means I’m not sure yet.” 

Meanwhile, here’s Youngkin:

https://dailycaller.com/2022/04/21/glenn-youngkin-2024-national-profile/

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is looking to raise his national profile by establishing two new political groups in the aftermath of becoming the first Republican to win statewide in over a decade, Politico reported.

The move will allow the recently elected governor to have a larger role in the upcoming midterm elections, Politico reported. Youngkin, who is limited to one term as governor, has not expressed any interest in a 2024 presidential run, but has not ruled out the possibility.

“I’ve got a new job in Virginia, and I’m extremely excited to be doing it,” Youngkin said on CNBC’s “Morning Squawk Box” on April 14 when asked about potentially launching a presidential campaign.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Tucker Carlson visiting Iowa:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/tucker-carlson-to-speak-at-iowa-summit-raising-eyebrows-and-speculation-of-a-presidential-run/

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1518992834384343041?s=20&t=LN08rUUxu...

Trump is running in 2024 so he won't run then, but he would be a formidable candidate in 2028.

Given that Tucker's median viewer (conservative, male, age 68) will be dead by then, I doubt it. (And that is with an average life expectancy of 74 before taking into account how many of their supporters Tucker and his fellow conservative cult leaders killed with pro-COVID garbage in the last few years.)

[Ferguson97]

Meanwhile, here’s Youngkin:

https://dailycaller.com/2022/04/21/glenn-youngkin-2024-national-profile/

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is looking to raise his national profile by establishing two new political groups in the aftermath of becoming the first Republican to win statewide in over a decade, Politico reported.

The move will allow the recently elected governor to have a larger role in the upcoming midterm elections, Politico reported. Youngkin, who is limited to one term as governor, has not expressed any interest in a 2024 presidential run, but has not ruled out the possibility.

“I’ve got a new job in Virginia, and I’m extremely excited to be doing it,” Youngkin said on CNBC’s “Morning Squawk Box” on April 14 when asked about potentially launching a presidential campaign.

Yeah, I think it's to early for Youngkin, he was just elected last year. Decent contender for 2028 if it's an open primary though.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney is asked if he might run for president again in 2024:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mitt-romney-president-2024-not_n_6269f8c6e4b050c90f3bd844

“That’s not going to happen again. I’ve been there, I’ve tried that twice. I’m happy being a senator,” Romney, 75, told HuffPost when asked about a presidential run in 2024.

[Ferguson97]

Romney is asked if he might run for president again in 2024:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mitt-romney-president-2024-not_n_6269f8c6e4b050c90f3bd844

“That’s not going to happen again. I’ve been there, I’ve tried that twice. I’m happy being a senator,” Romney, 75, told HuffPost when asked about a presidential run in 2024.

NY Post: Romney Doesn't Rule Out 2028 Presidential Run

[BoiseBoy]

Arkansas GOP governor says he's considering 2024 bid and would run even if Trump does

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/01/politics/asa-hutchinson-2024-president-trump-cnntv/index.html

[President Johnson]

Arkansas GOP governor says he's considering 2024 bid and would run even if Trump does

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/01/politics/asa-hutchinson-2024-president-trump-cnntv/index.html

He'll probably run and go nowhere. Either drops out in 2023 already, or after finishing with 1% of the vote in Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Larry Hogan will be speaking at the Reagan Library on Tuesday:

https://happeningnext.com/event/onstage-at-the-reagan-library-with-governor-larry-hogan-eid3a08l5rqea

Haley will be headed back to Iowa this summer to attend the “Dubuque Regional Reception hosted by the state GOP”:

https://thehill.com/news/campaign/3270081-gop-shadow-primary-gains-steam-ahead-of-2024/

[S019]

https://twitter.com/EmmaHendersonTV/status/1521678183153774593?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

Well Nina Turner may be primarying Biden, this will (thankfully) go down in flames and she'll be lucky to get 1% of the vote in Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico says that their sources indicate that Biden and Trump have suggested to aides that they’d be more likely to run if the other also runs:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/05/biden-trump-rematch-00030250

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have both told aides and confidants that they’re more likely to run for the White House next cycle — and confident in their chances of winning — if the other runs, too. But as each camp gears up for a rematch of the bitterly contested 2020 contest, there remains a small hiccup: Neither is inclined to take the plunge first.
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Inside the White House, for now, it’s all systems go for 2024. An official decision has not been made and may not for some time, according to three administration officials not authorized to discuss private deliberations. But Biden has repeatedly said he plans to seek reelection, and White House aides and Biden advisers are taking initial steps to mount a bid, believing he has a strong record and would overcome intraparty concerns about his age — on Election Day 2024 he will be just shy of 82 — and shaky poll numbers.
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The current president has had repeated conversations with allies that he would need to run again to prevent Trump from reclaiming the Oval Office. Like he did in 2020, Biden views Trump as an existential threat to American democracy. And like he did in 2020, Biden thinks he’s the only one who can beat him. He plans to more aggressively target Trump as the midterm season approaches — both as a means of turning around his party’s standing for the midterms but also to set up a contrast for the future.

As for Trump:

Even his closest allies are left to read the tea leaves. Trump’s enthusiasm to hold rallies, his flirtations with a 2024 run in media interviews, and his super PACs’ deep coffers, advisers say, are all signs he is likely to run again. But he also remains obsessed with relitigating 2020 more so than taking concrete steps to prepare for 2024. Relatedly, they add, he would likely jump into the fray if assured that Biden was running too.

“Biden running helps shape his decision. I think it’s an opportunity to avenge a loss and right a wrong, whereas if there was a younger candidate, I don’t know how motivated he’d be,” said a former adviser to Trump.

[Ferguson97]

Politico says that their sources indicate that Biden and Trump have suggested to aides that they’d be more likely to run if the other also runs:

Yeah that was obvious from Day 1.

I expect Biden will blink first and officially announce after the midterms. 

[NewYorkExpress]

Mike Pence, Pete Ricketts, Doug Ducey and Chris Christie are all headed to Georgia in advance of the May 24 primaries there to campaign for Brian Kemp in the Governor's race.

Former Vice President Mike Pence will rally support for Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp as the Republican incumbent seeks to fend off a May 24 primary challenge from Donald Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue.

The decision by Pence to campaign for one of Trump's top GOP targets marks yet another break with his former boss after saying earlier this year that the former President was "wrong" in his belief that Pence could have overturned the results of the 2020 election. Pence will rally with Kemp on Monday, a day before the Republican primary, which has turned into a proxy fight between the establishment and Trump wings of the GOP.

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Pence is not the only high-profile Republican bolstering support for Kemp. Govs. Pete Ricketts of Nebraska and Doug Ducey of Arizona, as well as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie -- all of whom have clashed with Trump -- will also campaign for Kemp ahead of the Georgia primary, a source familiar with the plans previously told CNN. Ricketts and Ducey are co-chairs of the Republican Governors Association, which has poured money into the race to support Kemp, including a large TV ad buy in the state.

[NewYorkExpress]

Melania Trump teases another four years as First Lady in an appearance on Fox and Friends Weekend.

The former first lady Melania Trump teased a possible second presidential run for her husband Donald Trump during an appearance on Fox News over the weekend.

When the "Fox and Friends Weekend" co-host Pete Hegseth asked Trump if she could see herself living in the White House again, she told him: "Never say never."

"I think we achieved a lot in four years of the Trump administration," she said.

The comments were part of a wide-ranging interview — Melania Trump's first since her husband left office in early 2021.

[Mr. Morden]

Tim Scott headed to Iowa next month:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2022/05/16/senator-tim-scott-iowa-gop-june-event-trump-president-election-2024-speculation/9797025002/

Scott will speak June 9 at a regional reception for the state party in Cedar Rapids along with Iowa's Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst.
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The senator has kept up a regular presence in Iowa, speaking at the Christian conservative Family Leadership Summit in 2019, campaigning with Ernst ahead of her 2020 reelection bid and headlining a 2021 fundraiser for the state party in Davenport.

[Mr. Morden]

The NY Post on Eric Adams and 2024:

https://nypost.com/2022/05/21/eric-adams-eyeing-white-house-run-in-2024-sources/

Mayor Adams may be eyeing a White House run if President Biden doesn’t seek a second term, confidantes and City Hall insiders told The Post.

“Eric has told me repeatedly that he thinks that he has a platform to run for national office, for president in 2024. He has said that repeatedly. He thinks New York is a national platform. He thinks the national party has gotten too far to the left and he thinks he has a platform to win,” a person close to the mayor said.

A Brooklyn Democratic elected official who was also frequently in talks with the mayor said Adams was “considering a White House run in 2024 if Biden doesn’t seek re-election,” adding that Adams’ advisor Ingrid Lewis-Martin was “running point” on the issue.

Publicly, Adams’s people say it’s untrue:

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-adams-no-white-house-run-20220521-beme7b3gbjfrznmixlbpmu7dmu-story.html

Published reports about the mayor’s alleged aspirations for a bigger job in Washington were “100% untrue,” responded Adams adviser Evan Thies on Saturday.

“There’s a difference between gossip and news— and the truth is that the mayor is completely focused on bringing New York City back by lowering crime, growing our economy and reversing inequality.”

[Mr. Morden]

I guess this wasn't reported at the time, but when Pence was in Iowa last month, he was asked whether he'd rule out running against Trump in 2024:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/us/politics/pence-trump-republicans-2024.html

In an interview before a speech last month in Iowa, Mr. Pence pointedly declined to rule out running even if Mr. Trump also enters the 2024 primary. “We’ll go where we’re called,” Mr. Pence said, explaining that he and his wife would act on prayer. “That’s the way Karen and I have always approached these things.”

[American2020]

There Has to Be a Backup Plan. There’s a Backup Plan, Right?

On a Tuesday evening in April, nearly half a century after Joe Biden first publicly mused about running for president, an unsettled cross section of the Democratic Establishment assembled at Pinehurst, a golf resort in North Carolina. Inflation was at a 40-year high, Biden’s disapproval rating sat at 56 percent, and editors at the New York Times were readying a front-page report about how his signature achievement — $1.9 trillion in coronavirus-relief spending — has “barely registered with voters.” The lobbyists, donors, staffers, and elected officials were gathering for the spring policy meeting of the Democratic Governors Association, and the scheduled sessions concerned such topics as health care and diversity in governance. But between panel discussions, in the hallways and at the cocktail reception on the lawn, conversation shifted from grim — the midterms — to grimmer: the state of the party’s planning for 2024, when Biden will stand for reelection on the eve of his 82nd birthday.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/05/biden-2024-democrats-search-for-alternative.html

[Mr. Morden]

The NYT reports that after some of Trump’s endorsed candidates lost primaries this past month, he’s now considering trying to reassert his control of the party by launching a presidential campaign (or exploratory committee, which is de facto the same thing) as early as this summer:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/28/us/politics/trump-endorsed-candidates-primary-elections.html

Yet the difficult primary season has added to Mr. Trump’s personal anxieties about his standing, after he has sought to fashion himself as something of an old-school party boss in his post-presidency. He has told advisers he wants to declare his candidacy or possibly launch an exploratory committee this summer.

Most of Mr. Trump’s advisers believe he should wait until after the midterm elections to announce a candidacy. Yet the sense among Republicans that Mr. Trump has lost political altitude is taking hold, including among some of those close to him.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Arkansas GOP governor says he's considering 2024 bid and would run even if Trump does

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/01/politics/asa-hutchinson-2024-president-trump-cnntv/index.html

He'll probably run and go nowhere. Either drops out in 2023 already, or after finishing with 1% of the vote in Iowa.

IF he even wins 1% in Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

The NYT reports that after some of Trump’s endorsed candidates lost primaries this past month, he’s now considering trying to reassert his control of the party by launching a presidential campaign (or exploratory committee, which is de facto the same thing) as early as this summer:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/28/us/politics/trump-endorsed-candidates-primary-elections.html

Yet the difficult primary season has added to Mr. Trump’s personal anxieties about his standing, after he has sought to fashion himself as something of an old-school party boss in his post-presidency. He has told advisers he wants to declare his candidacy or possibly launch an exploratory committee this summer.

Most of Mr. Trump’s advisers believe he should wait until after the midterm elections to announce a candidacy. Yet the sense among Republicans that Mr. Trump has lost political altitude is taking hold, including among some of those close to him.

This WaPo story from a few days ago likewise suggests that Trump has been talking about launching an exploratory committee or a full blown campaign before the midterms, while advisors try to talk him out of it:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/25/trump-midterms-setbacks-2024/

He also had revived conversations about announcing a presidential exploratory committee to try to dissuade challengers, they say, even as some party officials and advisers continue to urge him to wait until after the midterm elections to announce that he’s running.
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Advisers have repeatedly had to talk Trump out of announcing a run for president ahead of the midterms, which Republican strategists worry would offer a jolt to Democratic prospects by shifting the focus away from frustrations with President Biden, whose approval rating hovers around 40 percent. Trump has privately raged against some of his former allies, such as Pence, and has been discussing how to attack potential 2024 foes.

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump again hints at a 2024 run in his response to Michael Sussman's acquittal.

Former President Trump said the revelations out of the trial of former Clinton campaign lawyer Michael Sussmann and his acquittal make him "want to fight even harder," warning that "if we don’t win, our country is ruined."

A jury found Sussmann not guilty Tuesday after Special Counsel John Durham charged him with making a false statement to the FBI.



Sussmann, in Sept. 2016, brought information to the FBI alleging a covert communications channel between the Trump Organization and Russia’s Alfa Bank. Durham alleged that Sussmann lied to then-FBI General Counsel James Baker when he said he was bringing those allegations as a citizen concerned with national security.


Durham said Sussmann was acting in his capacity as a lawyer for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, pointing to billing records revealing that Sussmann charged the campaign repeatedly for his work on compiling the information tying Trump to the Kremlin-linked bank.

When asked if the verdict had any effect on his future political plans, signaling his 2024 campaign plans, Trump quipped: "If anything, it makes me want to fight even harder."


"If we don’t win, our country is ruined," Trump said. "We have bad borders, bad elections, and a court system not functioning properly."

He added: "Our country is being systematically destroyed."

"They spied on my campaign. They got caught. If a Republican would have done that, and the obvious steps forward, it would be a virtual death penalty," Trump said during an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital Wednesday.

[Mr. Morden]

Sources inside Trump’s orbit says the Trump 2024 campaign may very well launch this summer:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-brink-rcna31774

Former President Donald Trump is bored at Mar-a-Lago and anxious to get back in the political arena — as a candidate, not a kingmaker — according to his advisers, who are divided over whether he should launch a third bid for the presidency as early as this summer.

While many Trump confidants believe he should wait until after November's midterm elections — and caution that he has not yet made a final decision about running — some say he could move more quickly to harness supporters and deny fuel to the busload of GOP hopefuls in his rearview mirror.

"I’ve laid out my case on why I think he should do it," said longtime Trump adviser Jason Miller, who traveled with the former president to a rally in Wyoming over Memorial Day weekend. "I think that there being clarity about what his intentions are [is important] so he can start building that operation while it’s still fresh in people’s minds and they’re still active — a lot of that can be converted into 2024 action."

A second adviser, who believes Trump should pause until the more traditional post-midterm period, said the former president, famous for his lack of impulse control, is nonetheless likely to jump in "sooner rather than later."
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Two people in Trump's orbit told NBC News they had been asked informally to hold July 4 as a date for a possible announcement, but Miller — noting that Trump hasn't yet decided to run — said it is "not true" that the day has been reserved, even unofficially, for a launch.

[Mr. Morden]

Haley will be headed back to Iowa this summer to attend the “Dubuque Regional Reception hosted by the state GOP”:

https://thehill.com/news/campaign/3270081-gop-shadow-primary-gains-steam-ahead-of-2024/

Looks like this will be happening on June 29th.  And then the next day, she’ll be doing this:

https://twitter.com/RandyFeenstra/status/1526578431814684672

Meanwhile, Cotton will be in Iowa on July 7th:

https://twitter.com/StoryCountyGOP/status/1531758508818849793

And in a final piece of Iowa news, four potential 2024 GOP presidential candidates have “placed paid ads in the Iowa GOP’s state convention tabloid – which lists the agenda for the state party’s June 11th gathering.”:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/placing-ads-iowa-gop-trump-potential-2024-contenders

The four candidates to do so are Trump, Pompeo, Rick Scott and Tim Scott.

[2016]

LOL, Rick Scott? Give me a Break! That guy might lose his own Senate Primary to Trump Jr.

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1533817790498410496