The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Trump speaking in Fort Lauderdale yesterday: “I will be back”:

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3

"With the support of everyone in this room, we will take back the House, we will take back the Senate and we will take back our country, and then most importantly in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House," he said, addressing a crowd of rallygoers at the American Freedom Tour in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

"You had a president that always put America first," Trump said, adding "I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before."
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"We won twice. We did much better the second time, and we may have to do it again," he said.

[Mr. Morden]

Will Hurd:

https://politicalwire.com/2022/03/28/will-hurd-mulls-a-2024-presidential-bid/

Former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) is mulling a 2024 presidential run amid a Republican Party that has move to the hard right, The Atlantic reports.

Said Hurd: “Look, there’s some people I’m not going to appeal to — the right-wingers. That’s okay. But there’s more of the other people. The normal people. And I’m going to find them. It will be hard. The cost per acquisition of those voters is higher than it is for the traditional Republican primary voter—you know, the people who have voted in the last four primaries. That’s why most people don’t bother trying to find them or turn them out.”

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Will Hurd:

https://politicalwire.com/2022/03/28/will-hurd-mulls-a-2024-presidential-bid/

Former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) is mulling a 2024 presidential run amid a Republican Party that has move to the hard right, The Atlantic reports.

Said Hurd: “Look, there’s some people I’m not going to appeal to — the right-wingers. That’s okay. But there’s more of the other people. The normal people. And I’m going to find them. It will be hard. The cost per acquisition of those voters is higher than it is for the traditional Republican primary voter—you know, the people who have voted in the last four primaries. That’s why most people don’t bother trying to find them or turn them out.”

Mark Sanford 2.0

[MarkD]

Trump speaking in Fort Lauderdale yesterday: “I will be back”:

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-promises-to-return-to-the-white-house-in-2024-2022-3

"With the support of everyone in this room, we will take back the House, we will take back the Senate and we will take back our country, and then most importantly in 2024, we are going to take back our beautiful White House," he said, addressing a crowd of rallygoers at the American Freedom Tour in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

"You had a president that always put America first," Trump said, adding "I will be back and we will be better and stronger than ever before."
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"We won twice. We did much better the second time, and we may have to do it again," he said.

"We did much better the second time." Yeah, right. He claimed he won every single state the second time.

[Mr. Morden]

DeSantis dodges without really saying no when asked about 2024:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/512386-ron-desantis-2024/

“I’ve never been to Iowa in my life. I’ve never been to New Hampshire, I may have been there in my twenties. I’m just doing my job. I’m not doing anything differently than I would do if people were buzzing about me or not,” DeSantis said. “I’m trying to do the best I can for the people I represent.”
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“People have this merchandise with ’24. It’s not my merchandise,” DeSantis said. “It’s totally organic.”
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“I get letters into my office every day from people around the country just saying we wish the country could be more like Florida. We’d love to see you run sometime,” DeSantis asserted.

“But, at the same time, I’ve got a wife that’s successfully battling breast cancer. I’ve got a five-year-old, a four-year-old, and a two-year-old,” DeSantis added. “I’ve got my hands full. I spend zero time thinking about it except when people come up to me. And they’re all really well-intentioned. And they all really mean well. But at the end of the day, it’s neither here nor there for me.”

[Mr. Morden]

Pence will visit Iowa on April 23rd:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/mike-pence-plans-iowa-swing-as-2024-prep-accelerates

Meanwhile, the NH GOP held a fundraiser in DC on Wednesday, and Cotton, Cruz, Rick Scott, and Tim Scott all spoke at it:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/potential-2024-republican-presidential-contenders-headline-record-fundraiser-new-hampshire-gop

[Roll Roons]

I think this tidbit is kind of interesting:
https://twitter.com/ppavnr/status/1510648812984930304

[Mr. Morden]

Will Hurd is asked again about 2024, and dodges:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-will-hurds-book-prelude-2024-run

"If I have the opportunity to serve my country, I’ll evaluate it. I’ve been lucky to serve it in a number of different ways," Hurd said. "But right now, for me it was important to put out some of these ideas because 72% of Americans think the country’s on the wrong track and it doesn’t have to be that way."

Asked again about 2024, Hurd pointed to this year’s midterm elections, when the GOP aims to win back majorities in the House and Senate and emphasized that "thinking about any election other than the one that’s upon you is not wise."

Meanwhile, this story notes some other 2024 moves:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2024-prelude-mike-pences-moves-prepare-former-vp-for-likely-white-house-run

It notes that Haley will be in NH tomorrow, and that Pence called into radio shows in all 3 of IA, NH, and SC this past week.

Also:

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1432743563826241537

[Mr. Morden]

Trump mentions his health as one thing that could potentially prevent him from running:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/07/trump-interview-jan6/

Trump said it was true he had told advisers that his health would factor into whether he would run again in 2024 but that he was currently in good health.

“You always have to talk about health. You look like you’re in good health, but tomorrow, you get a letter from a doctor saying come see me again. That’s not good when they use the word again,” he said.

Also, here's more from Pompeo:

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1512200617279827973

[Mr. Morden]

This is a few weeks old now, but back in March, when Christie was in NH, he gave this interview:

https://www.wmur.com/article/closeup-christie-considering-2024-presidential-run/39484013

At about the 7:30 mark in that video, Christie said this on his timeline for deciding whether to run for president again or not:

”When we get to the end of 2022, I’ll be in a position to make a decision about running for president.”

In other news, Noem spoke at the Reagan Library on Wednesday:

https://dailycaller.com/2022/04/07/kristi-noem-donald-trump-speech-2024/

[Mr. Morden]

Pence on 2024:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mike-pence-2024-presidential-run-uva-speech-keep-you-posted

Pence was the headline speaker at a Young Americans Foundation (YAF) event at the university Tuesday. Pence spoke for nearly an hour, ripping President Biden's administration for bending to "wokism" and taking questions from students.

"I was just wondering if you're planning to run in 2024 for president," one student prompted.

"I'll keep you posted," Pence responded.

Meanwhile, Marianne Williamson was on Bloggingheads earlier this week, and was asked if she’s thinking about running for president again in 2024.  Her answer (at about the 4:25 mark):

https://bloggingheads.tv/videos/63962?in=4:25

”I’m thinking about it, but I think a lot of people are thinking about it.”

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1515791688387735557

[brucejoel99]

Biden told Obama that he's running again in 2024:

https://thehill.com/news/administration/3272281-biden-has-told-obama-hes-running-again/

President Biden has told former President Obama that he is planning to run for reelection in 2024, two sources tell The Hill. 

The admission to Obama is the latest indication that Biden is likely to run for a second term, something the president has spoken about publicly.

During a press conference in Brussels last month, he told reporters he'd be "very fortunate" to run against his rival in the 2020 election, former President Trump.

"[Biden] wants to run and he's clearly letting everyone know," said one of the two sources familiar with the conversations between Obama and Biden.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/20/sanders-president-2024/

BASED

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/20/sanders-president-2024/

BASED

I’m not sure why you didn’t make that a clickable link, but here’s the clickable version:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/20/sanders-president-2024/

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is open to running for president in 2024 if President Biden declines to seek reelection, according to a campaign memo a top political adviser distributed to allies on Wednesday that was shared with The Washington Post.

“In the event of an open 2024 Democratic presidential primary, Sen. Sanders has not ruled out another run for president, so we advise that you answer any questions about 2024 with that in mind,” says the memo from Faiz Shakir, a close Sanders adviser who was his campaign manager when he ran in 2020.

The memo was shared by a person with direct knowledge of its contents on the condition of anonymity because it was not released publicly, and confirmed by a second person with direct knowledge of the contents.

In other news, Hutchinson is headed to NH:

https://thehill.com/news/campaign/3271545-hutchinson-planning-trip-to-new-hampshire-amid-2024-speculation/

Outgoing Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) is making an appearance at a popular political speaking event in New Hampshire next week amid speculation he may be eyeing a 2024 presidential bid.

The New England Council and The New Hampshire Institute of Politics & Political Library at Saint Anselm College announced Monday that Hutchinson, who is term-limited, will appear at their latest installment of “Politics & Eggs” on April 25. The speaking series in the first-in-the-nation primary state is a mainstay of the presidential campaign trail and also often features other political leaders and analysts.

[Ferguson97]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/20/sanders-president-2024/

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is open to running for president in 2024 if President Biden declines to seek reelection, according to a campaign memo a top political adviser distributed to allies on Wednesday that was shared with The Washington Post.

“In the event of an open 2024 Democratic presidential primary, Sen. Sanders has not ruled out another run for president, so we advise that you answer any questions about 2024 with that in mind,” says the memo from Faiz Shakir, a close Sanders adviser who was his campaign manager when he ran in 2020.

The memo was shared by a person with direct knowledge of its contents on the condition of anonymity because it was not released publicly, and confirmed by a second person with direct knowledge of the contents.

[Liminal Trans Girl]

Trump 100%

Biden Probably

Harris and Pete might if Biden doesn't

Desantis Probably

Romney Probably

Cruz and Hawley if Trump doesn't

[Mr. Morden]

Kinzinger on 2024:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/adam-kinzinger-donald-trump-republican-party_n_62589a79e4b0723f80173a6b

“So, I look at it this way,” he began after I asked him about this. What followed was the boilerplate response from someone who’s mulling things behind the scenes: “I’ll make a decision when we get there, if there’s a need and a desire. It’s truly not anything I’m planning right now, but I’m not going to rule it out,” he said, his voice rising in such a way at the end that suggested this was supposed to be the main takeaway. “Look, if we’re in a position, if it’s just terrible candidates and the country’s in a worse place? Maybe. But there’s no grand plan right now.”

I asked Kinzinger whether he wants to run against Trump, who is expected to mount a third campaign for president. “I would love it. I really would,” he said, his eyes instantly widening. “Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is. ... I think it’d be fun.”
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"I don’t know. Maybe I would have run for governor. Maybe I would have run for Senate. Who knows? But yeah, my time in the House is, mercifully, coming to an end,” he said.

[MarkD]

Kinzinger on 2024:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/adam-kinzinger-donald-trump-republican-party_n_62589a79e4b0723f80173a6b

“So, I look at it this way,” he began after I asked him about this. What followed was the boilerplate response from someone who’s mulling things behind the scenes: “I’ll make a decision when we get there, if there’s a need and a desire. It’s truly not anything I’m planning right now, but I’m not going to rule it out,” he said, his voice rising in such a way at the end that suggested this was supposed to be the main takeaway. “Look, if we’re in a position, if it’s just terrible candidates and the country’s in a worse place? Maybe. But there’s no grand plan right now.”

I asked Kinzinger whether he wants to run against Trump, who is expected to mount a third campaign for president. “I would love it. I really would,” he said, his eyes instantly widening. “Even if he crushed me, like in a primary, to be able to stand up and call out the garbage is just a necessary thing, regardless of who it is. ... I think it’d be fun.”
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"I don’t know. Maybe I would have run for governor. Maybe I would have run for Senate. Who knows? But yeah, my time in the House is, mercifully, coming to an end,” he said.

Neat. I like Kinzinger a lot, and I'd like to see him "stand up and call out the garbage" and so on.

[SteveRogers]

I don't think the so called "14th Amendment route" even exists as described. There is a congressional procedure for removing disqualification in the amendment, but the actual disqualification procedure is never described. As far as I can tell it was a judicial procedure. There was enforcement legislation passed in 1870, but it was repealed ages ago.

Aside from being a horrible, nation-breaking idea, disqualifying via the 14th Amendment is probably not a legal possibility without a conviction of some kind.

It’s also not super clear that Section 3 of the 14th actually applies to the President anyway. It says, “ No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States,  or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

Now, theoretically POTUS an officer of the United States, but they singled out the electors for President and VP. You’d think if the drafters envisioned that section applying to the President themselves, they would’ve stated so more clearly.

[NewYorkExpress]

I don't think the so called "14th Amendment route" even exists as described. There is a congressional procedure for removing disqualification in the amendment, but the actual disqualification procedure is never described. As far as I can tell it was a judicial procedure. There was enforcement legislation passed in 1870, but it was repealed ages ago.

Aside from being a horrible, nation-breaking idea, disqualifying via the 14th Amendment is probably not a legal possibility without a conviction of some kind.

It’s also not super clear that Section 3 of the 14th actually applies to the President anyway. It says, “ No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States,  or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

Now, theoretically POTUS an officer of the United States, but they singled out the electors for President and VP. You’d think if the drafters envisioned that section applying to the President themselves, they would’ve stated so more clearly.

I'm sure Democrats and Republicans on the Supreme Court (minus slavish  pro-Trump hacks like Alito and Thomas, and possibly Sotomayor given her background) would simply rule that the requirement to become an elector for President is the same as the requirement to become President.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2024-watch-arkansas-gov-hutchinson-keeping-options-open-wants-to-be-bold-messenger-for-gop

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1499458417966080002?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

Mike Pence was in Iowa yesterday

https://twitter.com/Mike_Pence/status/1517909969982611458?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

In addition to endorsing Feenstra, he also formally endorsed Ashley Hinson in IA-2, and headlined the Lincoln County Dinner in Ames.

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1517328932030328834?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, another potential 2024 Republican White House hopeful, will team up with Laxalt in Las Vegas on Wednesday.

[Mr. Morden]

More on that memo about Sanders 2024:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/21/wait-bernie-might-run-in-2024-00027036

When Bernie Sanders’ aides sent out a memo this week revealing that the Vermont senator hadn’t closed the door to a third bid for president, they blasted it far and wide.
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A person close to the process said Sanders approved the concept and execution of the memo.
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Some people close to Sanders have encouraged him to keep 2024 as an option, depending on Biden’s political fortunes. In private conversations with others, Sanders confidants have said he is open to running again, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2024-watch-arkansas-gov-hutchinson-keeping-options-open-wants-to-be-bold-messenger-for-gop

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1499458417966080002?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

The key part here that you didn’t quote is Hutchinson directly responding to the 2024 question:

Hutchinson, the current chair of the National Governors Association, said he won’t make any 2024 decisions until after November’s midterms.

But he said "I’m not ruling it out. That’s something that is a consideration, an option. I’m certainly not ruling it out, because this is too critical a time for our nation and it’s a defining moment and I want to not only engage the debate now but keep my options open down the road."

[Mr. Morden]

In this video, Warren again says “I’m not running for president in 2024, I’m running for Senate.”  But she again frames it as she’s not running because she’s supporting Biden’s reelection, and continues to dodge when asked if she’d rule out running in the event that Biden doesn’t run again:

https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1518299485251813381

[Rat]

Tucker Carlson visiting Iowa:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/tucker-carlson-to-speak-at-iowa-summit-raising-eyebrows-and-speculation-of-a-presidential-run/

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/1518992834384343041?s=20&t=LN08rUUxu...