The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[GAProgressive]

God, it's going to be a bloodbath that puts '16 to shame.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Am I the only one that could see Greg Gianforte being a dark horse candidate for '24?

[KYRockefeller]

Rick Scott is definitely going to be in the running, either in 2024 or 2028.  I see he and Nikki Haley as the easy GOP frontrunners for 2024 at the moment.  Scott has great outreach to the Hispanic community, even if his tenure in Florida provoked a lot of negative reactions from the left.  Unseating a three-term incumbent senator who was scandal-free in a blue wave year was pretty eye opening to his abilities on the campaign trail.

The way I see the field:

-Rick Scott
-Nikki Haley
-Larry Hogan
-Tom Cotton
-Ted Cruz
-Rand Paul

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Am I the only one that could see Greg Gianforte being a dark horse candidate for '24?

This assumes he is elected governor, right?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Am I the only one that could see Greg Gianforte being a dark horse candidate for '24?

This assumes he is elected governor, right?

Indeed

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Am I the only one that could see Greg Gianforte being a dark horse candidate for '24?

This assumes he is elected governor, right?

Indeed

It'd be an interesting possibility, but I have the sensation he would not go particularly farther than his predecessor Bullock did.

[terp40hitch]

Kristi Noem is a keynote speaker at a Lincoln day dinner in Iowa and a fundraiser in Ohio

[Mr. Morden]

Kristi Noem is a keynote speaker at a Lincoln day dinner in Iowa and a fundraiser in Ohio

Here's the info on the former:

https://rapidcityjournal.com/news/local/gov-noem-to-headline-gop-dinner-in-iowa/article_47c472ce-d628-5662-8d36-e7caf1bbe7f3.html

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem will be the keynote speaker on Sept. 4 at the Pottawattamie County (Iowa) Republican Party's annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner.

[Barack Oganja]

Prior denial aside, I see her running, and I think she'd do better with the GOP base than someone like Haley

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/08/gov-kristi-noem-south-dakota-presidential-race/5397174002/

[Kylar Nicholas]

Can anyone see Senator John Thune (R-SD) making a legitimate run for it?
He'd only be 63 by 2024 and he's majority WHIP right now.

[terp40hitch]

Can anyone see Senator John Thune (R-SD) making a legitimate run for it?
He'd only be 63 by 2024 and he's majority WHIP right now.

Thune will probably take over after McConnell

[Roll Roons]

Can anyone see Senator John Thune (R-SD) making a legitimate run for it?
He'd only be 63 by 2024 and he's majority WHIP right now.

Thune will probably take over after McConnell

Yeah. I think he could have been a very strong contender in 2012 or 2016, but his moment for the presidency has likely passed.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Prior denial aside, I see her running, and I think she'd do better with the GOP base than someone like Haley

https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/08/gov-kristi-noem-south-dakota-presidential-race/5397174002/

We'll see how good she looks after the Sturgis-related case outbreak in a few weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

While there's been more discussion of the GOP field so far in this thread, there does remain the possibility that either Trump wins or Biden wins but doesn't run for a second term.  In either of those cases, there'll presumably be at least a somewhat contested Dem. primary, even if in the latter case Biden's VP would probably be the heavy favorite if she runs.  So one possible Dem. 2024 candidate to check in on is Buttigieg, and it looks like he has a gig at Notre Dame, and a book coming out in October:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/pete-buttigieg-takes-a-faculty-post-at-notre-dame/

The University of Notre Dame has announced that Pete Buttigieg, failed presidential candidate and former mayor of South Bend, Ind., will be taking a post at the university for the coming academic year.

Buttigieg will be a 2020-21 faculty fellow at Notre Dame’s Institute for Advanced Study (NDIAS), taking part in a cohort that is set to focus on the “nature of trust.” In October, the former mayor will release a book on just that subject, called Trust: America’s Best Chance, “interweaving history, political philosophy, and affecting passages of memoir [to explore] the strong relationship between measures of prosperity and levels of social trust.”

[Orwell]

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/pete-buttigieg-takes-a-faculty-post-at-notre-dame/

The University of Notre Dame has announced that Pete Buttigieg, failed presidential candidate and former mayor of South Bend, Ind., will be taking a post at the university for the coming academic year.

Buttigieg will be a 2020-21 faculty fellow at Notre Dame’s Institute for Advanced Study (NDIAS), taking part in a cohort that is set to focus on the “nature of trust.” In October, the former mayor will release a book on just that subject, called Trust: America’s Best Chance, “interweaving history, political philosophy, and affecting passages of memoir [to explore] the strong relationship between measures of prosperity and levels of social trust.”

Mayor Pete makes a convincing attempt to get me to go to Notre Dame...

[bore]

Can anyone see Senator John Thune (R-SD) making a legitimate run for it?
He'd only be 63 by 2024 and he's majority WHIP right now.

Thune is unlikely to run, coming as he does from a state without a major air hub.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

While there's been more discussion of the GOP field so far in this thread, there does remain the possibility that either Trump wins or Biden wins but doesn't run for a second term.  In either of those cases, there'll presumably be at least a somewhat contested Dem. primary, even if in the latter case Biden's VP would probably be the heavy favorite if she runs.  So one possible Dem. 2024 candidate to check in on is Buttigieg, and it looks like he has a gig at Notre Dame, and a book coming out in October:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/pete-buttigieg-takes-a-faculty-post-at-notre-dame/

The University of Notre Dame has announced that Pete Buttigieg, failed presidential candidate and former mayor of South Bend, Ind., will be taking a post at the university for the coming academic year.

Buttigieg will be a 2020-21 faculty fellow at Notre Dame’s Institute for Advanced Study (NDIAS), taking part in a cohort that is set to focus on the “nature of trust.” In October, the former mayor will release a book on just that subject, called Trust: America’s Best Chance, “interweaving history, political philosophy, and affecting passages of memoir [to explore] the strong relationship between measures of prosperity and levels of social trust.”

In 2024 he still won't be qualified to be president.

[brucejoel99]

While there's been more discussion of the GOP field so far in this thread, there does remain the possibility that either Trump wins or Biden wins but doesn't run for a second term.  In either of those cases, there'll presumably be at least a somewhat contested Dem. primary, even if in the latter case Biden's VP would probably be the heavy favorite if she runs.  So one possible Dem. 2024 candidate to check in on is Buttigieg, and it looks like he has a gig at Notre Dame, and a book coming out in October:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/pete-buttigieg-takes-a-faculty-post-at-notre-dame/

The University of Notre Dame has announced that Pete Buttigieg, failed presidential candidate and former mayor of South Bend, Ind., will be taking a post at the university for the coming academic year.

Buttigieg will be a 2020-21 faculty fellow at Notre Dame’s Institute for Advanced Study (NDIAS), taking part in a cohort that is set to focus on the “nature of trust.” In October, the former mayor will release a book on just that subject, called Trust: America’s Best Chance, “interweaving history, political philosophy, and affecting passages of memoir [to explore] the strong relationship between measures of prosperity and levels of social trust.”

In 2024 he still won't be qualified to be president.

Given he doesn't have any shot at the Governor's Mansion, a Senate seat, or even a House seat, I don't really see what he can do to become "qualified to be president" by 2024 other than bide his time while hoping & praying that Biden picks him to be our next UN Ambassador.

[ShadowRocket]

Buttigieg strikes me a plausible candidate for Harris' running mate in four years, contingent on him becoming UN Ambassador. As much as I like the guy, its hard to see a path forward for him barring a Biden appointment or pulling a Romney and running in another state.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/08/11/desantis-squelches-talk-of-a-white-house-run-1307396

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said he plans to run for a second four-year term and expects to make a formal announcement at the end of the year.

He said speculation about a 2024 White House bid was “total garbage" but did not specifically rule out the possibility of a presidential bid.


In an interview, the Republican said it was a “safe assumption” he would run for a second term as governor.

“I’m planning that, I haven’t announced yet, but I think it’s a safe assumption that I will do it,” DeSantis said.

“Any political stuff that you hear along those lines—that is total garbage,” DeSantis said of speculation that he'll mount a White House bid. “It’s not coming from me. I’m just doing a day at a time.”

Hmm...a non-denial-denial. Assuming DeSantis wins reelection, I think he's running in 2024.

I guess the question is would he defer to Marco Rubio or Rick Scott?

[Nightcore Nationalist]

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/08/11/desantis-squelches-talk-of-a-white-house-run-1307396

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said he plans to run for a second four-year term and expects to make a formal announcement at the end of the year.

He said speculation about a 2024 White House bid was “total garbage" but did not specifically rule out the possibility of a presidential bid.


In an interview, the Republican said it was a “safe assumption” he would run for a second term as governor.

“I’m planning that, I haven’t announced yet, but I think it’s a safe assumption that I will do it,” DeSantis said.

“Any political stuff that you hear along those lines—that is total garbage,” DeSantis said of speculation that he'll mount a White House bid. “It’s not coming from me. I’m just doing a day at a time.”

Hmm...a non-denial-denial. Assuming DeSantis wins reelection, I think he's running in 2024.

I guess the question is would he defer to Marco Rubio or Rick Scott?

Yeah, if DeSantis wins re-election then 95% chance he runs in 2024, unless he takes a backroom deal-perhaps he endorses Rick Scott in exchange for a cabinet position, or he thinks it's a bad GOP cycle and decides to wait until 2028.  I'd honestly be surprised if Rubio won re-election, if he even runs for a third term-losing looks worse than simply not running.

And obviously, it would be unwise politically for a governor with under 2 years on the job to be measuring the curtains in the White House.

[Person Man]

Trump winning would definitely throw a lot of things up in the air. Not only would it make a "New Kind" of Democrat appealing in 2024, there would be a potential 6 year itch for Republicans to deal with. A lot of rising Republican stars could be discredited.

I think we should all still assume that Trump wins in 2020 and Democrats retake congress in 2022. Any deviation from that would have broader implications.

[Sir Mohamed]

Here is a general thought: People ruling out a run now means nothing. Elizabeth Warren ruled out a run well into 2018. HRC even in 2014 said she has no plans to run 4 prez.

Buttigieg strikes me a plausible candidate for Harris' running mate in four years, contingent on him becoming UN Ambassador. As much as I like the guy, its hard to see a path forward for him barring a Biden appointment or pulling a Romney and running in another state.

Yup, though Harris may go with a more conventional VP pick in 2024. I always thought Roy Cooper would be a fine VP for her. Popular 2 term gov from a tipping point state who can appeal to some white Southerners. Or Harris goes full female and picks someone like Gretchen Whitmer. Would be interesting, too.

If Butti gets the job as UN Ambassador under Biden, Harris could elevate him to SoS if she wins in 2024 (or Biden himself, in the event he actually runs and gets reelected).

[Not Me, Us]

Buttigieg strikes me a plausible candidate for Harris' running mate in four years, contingent on him becoming UN Ambassador. As much as I like the guy, its hard to see a path forward for him barring a Biden appointment or pulling a Romney and running in another state.

Side note, why do people keep saying Buttigieg is going to be UN Ambassador? Wouldn't HUD be much more suited to his skillset? As far as I can tell, he doesn't have any foreign policy experience.

[brucejoel99]

Buttigieg strikes me a plausible candidate for Harris' running mate in four years, contingent on him becoming UN Ambassador. As much as I like the guy, its hard to see a path forward for him barring a Biden appointment or pulling a Romney and running in another state.

Side note, why do people keep saying Buttigieg is going to be UN Ambassador? Wouldn't HUD be much more suited to his skillset? As far as I can tell, he doesn't have any foreign policy experience.

HUD Secretary is an obvious possibility, yeah, but people want him to be UN Ambassador so he can gain foreign policy experience for when he (presumably) runs for President again, as it's the sort of foreign policy-related appointment that can be given to an appointee with a political following - but without overwhelming traditional credentials for the Presidency - so that person can gain foreign policy experience (e.g., Nikki Haley, John Danforth, Bill Richardson). He may not have diplomatic experience (yet), but he has served in the military, obviously understands the world, speaks 8(!) languages, & is evidently a very smart individual, so he'd easily learn how to operate on the international stage.