The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Christie on Trump and himself:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/14/politics/chris-christie-predictions-trump-2024/index.html

"I don't know that he's going to run. I don't know whether I'm going to run," Christie, a longtime friend and high-profile supporter of Trump, told CNN's Dana Bash in a clip from "Being ... Chris Christie," the second episode in CNN's "Being ..." series that will air in full on Monday, November 15 at 10 p.m. ET.

Pressed by Bash if he would support Trump should the former President run again, Christie said that while the former President is "seriously considering it," Christie would like to "see what happens when he does."
      
"Let's see who he is and what he says and how he conducts himself," Christie said.

Christie also slammed those who are basing their decision on whether to run in ’24 around whether Trump also runs or not:

https://news.yahoo.com/christie-republicans-waiting-trump-2024-231230977.html

"Those people who say that they will defer to Donald Trump have disqualified themselves from being president," Christie told me during a wide-ranging interview in New Jersey. "Because if you're not willing to stand up to someone, ... how can you ... be standing up for everyone when you're president?"
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"I think that if you believe that you have the talent, the ability, the skills to be president of the United States, that you shouldn't defer to anyone if you believe you're the best person."

[StateBoiler]

Christie also slammed those who are basing their decision on whether to run in ’24 around whether Trump also runs or not:

https://news.yahoo.com/christie-republicans-waiting-trump-2024-231230977.html

"Those people who say that they will defer to Donald Trump have disqualified themselves from being president," Christie told me during a wide-ranging interview in New Jersey. "Because if you're not willing to stand up to someone, ... how can you ... be standing up for everyone when you're president?"

So to analogize:

-Donald Trump is Lyndon Johnson
-Chris Christie is Eugene McCarthy
-"Everyone else" is Robert Kennedy

"Chris Christie 2024" is to me "Rick Santorum 2016" as far as serious chance of success. Yet, if Trump does run, Christie's staked himself on a pole of "I'm running regardless".

I do find what's going to happen in a contested Republican primary if Trump is present interesting. If you're Trump, there's no reason to participate in debates unless and until one candidate looks like he or she will threaten him, at which point you agree to a one-on-one debate on your terms. That said, if 5 or so Republicans that are Chris Christie-level are running for president against Trump and Trump said he won't participate in debates, are televised debates on the GOP side even a thing? Primary debates are ran by the TV networks, not the party, and do they have any interest in broadcasting a Republican debate without Trump? Remove Trump and do they think they would get ratings which is their ultimate goal?

The RNC rules discussion likewise will be interesting. They broke down the wall bigtime in the runup to 2020 showing obvious preference to the incumbent president. They don't have the incumbent excuse this coming time.

[Rat]

I think the media is salivating over the possibility of a Trump vs Christie debate.

[StateBoiler]

I think the media is salivating over the possibility of a Trump vs Christie debate.

There's literally no upside for Trump to do it.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico with a story today saying that even if Biden says he'll run for another term, a lot of Democratic bigshots are acting like he won't, and Democrats say Harris will not clear the field either if she's the chosen heir.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/14/biden-successor-2024-kamala-harris-522160

Here's the one concrete example from that story of a Dem. other than Biden/Harris eyeing a future campaign that I wasn't aware of:

This fall, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) boosted the mayor of Manchester, N.H., during her recent reelection campaign and is keeping in touch with allies in the critical primary state, according to people familiar with the calls.

[2016]

The Question is: Does Trump want to put his family through the wringer again?

I don't think he runs.

DeSantis will!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RSBNetwork/status/1461133592348835851

[SteveRogers]

The Question is: Does Trump want to put his family through the wringer again?

I don't think he runs.

DeSantis will!

Trump doesn’t care. He’s literally already campaigning.

[Sir Mohamed]

The Question is: Does Trump want to put his family through the wringer again?

I don't think he runs.

DeSantis will!

The only member of the Trump family Donald Trump cares about is Donald Trump.

[NewYorkExpress]

Liz Cheney and Ted Cruz sparring with each other on national television.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) sparred with one another in television appearances this week, each saying that former President Trump "broke" the other.

Cruz appeared on Sean Hannity's Fox News show on Tuesday and said the Wyoming representative had "Trump derangement syndrome."

" think she falls into the category of people who Donald Trump just broke, just shattered," Cruz said, according to Yahoo News. 


"She hates Donald Trump so much that it just has overridden everything in her system. She’s lashing out at Trump and Republicans and everything, and she’s become a Democrat, and it’s sad to watch what has happened," he added.

Cheney later responded, saying that Cruz was "desperate for political approval." 

“Trump broke Ted Cruz,” Cheney said in a clip aired on CNN. "A real man would be defending his wife, and his father and the Constitution.”

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

“Trump broke Ted Cruz,” Cheney said in a clip aired on CNN. "A real man would be defending his wife, and his father and the Constitution.”

[Mr. Morden]

Michael Flynn is asked if he’ll run for president, and he first says he needs to ask his wife, and then ends up saying “maybe”:

https://hillreporter.com/watch-michael-flynn-says-that-he-might-run-for-president-in-2024-118009

An audience member asked Flynn if he’d run. The crowd broke into a standing ovation. “My answer is I gotta ask my wife,” Flynn responded. “I’ve already had like four conversations with her this morning. Two were FaceTime, two were on the phone. You know, honey do stuff. So you know, maybe.”

Cory Booker is headed to New Hampshire next month:

https://www.wmur.com/article/booker-to-return-to-nh-to-headline-major-nhdp-fundraiser/38284768#

U.S. Sen. Cory Booker will make his first appearance in the Granite State since the 2020 first-in-the-nation presidential primary campaign as the headliner of a major New Hampshire Democratic Party fundraiser Dec. 11.

New Hampshire Primary Source has learned that Booker has been confirmed as the featured speaker for the “McIntyre-Shaheen and Eleanor Roosevelt Winter Extravaganza: A Family Reunion,” the first major in-person NHDP event since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

[BoiseBoy]

Sununu 2024?

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1462100560115650574?s=21

[Mr. Morden]

Sununu 2024?

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1462100560115650574?s=21

Looks like he first mentioned this possibility about a week and a half ago:

https://thepulseofnh.com/news/governor-sununu-not-ruling-out-a-run-for-president-in-2024/

“I don’t rule anything out”, Governor Chris Sununu said when asked on Good Morning NH if he would run for the President of the United States in 2024.

[Mr. Morden]

More on Trump reportedly being irritated by DeSantis having not sworn off a 2024 presidential run:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/19/politics/trump-desantis-relationship/index.html

Trump has become increasingly irritated at DeSantis' refusal to publicly dismiss a 2024 bid of his own if the former President himself decides to run. Two people close to the situation said DeSantis has privately assured Trump and others that he has no intention of challenging him in a GOP presidential primary, but they noted that Trump won't be fully satisfied until the governor says so publicly.
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Though DeSantis has previously dismissed 2024 chatter about him as "nonsense," he has avoided taking the unequivocal public vow not to challenge Trump that other prospective Republican hopefuls have made.

Earlier this month, he officially filed to run for reelection for Florida governor in 2022 and he recently told Fox News host Sean Hannity that's where his focus lies.

"I'm not considering anything beyond doing my job," DeSantis said.

Meanwhile, when Harris was asked if Biden has told her if he’s going to seek reelection, she dodged:

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/kamala-harris-reelection-2024-discussions-biden-absolutely-not-quote-2021-11

"Has President Biden told you whether he's gonna seek reelection in 2024?" Stephanopoulos asked Harris earlier in the interview.

"What President Biden and I started our day talking about, as we normally do, is bringing in members of our intelligence community to review the Presidential Daily Brief and talk about classified information around threats to our national security and hotspots around the world," Harris said, not addressing anything related to reelection.

[2016]

Sununu 2024?

https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1462100560115650574?s=21

Looks like he first mentioned this possibility about a week and a half ago:

https://thepulseofnh.com/news/governor-sununu-not-ruling-out-a-run-for-president-in-2024/

“I don’t rule anything out”, Governor Chris Sununu said when asked on Good Morning NH if he would run for the President of the United States in 2024.

When do Hogan, Sununu, Ducey, etc. realize that they can't win without Trump?

Trump got 74 Million Votes in 2020, increased his RAW VOTE Total from 2016 to 2020 by almost 12 Million.

I seriously doubt the Republican Party will find someone else who will eclipse Donald Trumps RAW VOTE Total in 2024.

The determining Factor for Trump will be his Health and if he charged to be sentenced to jail.

[brucejoel99]

Biden and aides tell allies he is running in 2024 amid growing Democratic fears:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-reelection-2024/2021/11/20/0779469c-4947-11ec-95dc-5f2a96e00fa3_story.html

President Biden and members of his inner circle have reassured allies in recent days that he plans to run for reelection in 2024, as they take steps to deflect concern about the 79-year-old president's commitment to another campaign and growing Democratic fears of a coming Republican return to power.

The efforts come as the broader Democratic community has become increasingly anxious after a bruising six-month stretch that has seen Biden's national approval rating plummet more than a dozen points, into the low 40s, amid growing concerns about inflation, Democratic infighting in Washington and faltering public health efforts to move beyond the covid-19 pandemic.

The message is aimed in part at tamping down the assumption among many Democrats that Biden may not seek reelection given his age and waning popularity, while also effectively freezing the field for Vice President Harris and other potential presidential hopefuls.

"The only thing I've heard him say is he's planning on running again," said former senator Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), a Biden friend. "And I'm glad he is."

At a virtual fundraiser this month, Biden told a small group of donors that he plans to seek a second term, underscoring the message he gave the nation in March at his first White House news conference before cautioning that he had "never been able to plan 3½, four years ahead, for certain."

"What he is saying publicly is what he firmly believes. There's no difference," said former Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell, who attended the fundraising event. "He will not run if he feels he can't do the job physically or emotionally."

[...]

His advisers say that health is not a current concern that would prevent another campaign.

"He has told people privately that he plans to run and we will be ready for that," said one Biden adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal conversations.

Biden has so far rejected then-president Donald Trump's approach of declaring a reelection campaign in the first months in office, reasoning that such an announcement would waste money and wear out campaign donors, allies say. Biden is widely expected to wait until after the midterms to make a formal announcement.

Shortly after arriving in the White House, Biden shifted the assets of his presidential campaign to the Democratic National Committee, leaving his donor and volunteer lists to be managed by the national party. Since then, DNC leaders have been operating under the assumption that he will run again, choosing not to begin any planning for a contested primary, like debate preparations, which had started at this point in the 2020 cycle.

[...]

Unite the Country, a super PAC formed by Biden loyalists, has also announced plans to invest in the midterms to prepare the ground for Biden’s return to the campaign trail. The focus of their midterm spending, which has a fundraising goal of $42.4 million, will be on five states - Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.

"I wake up every day operating like he is running," the group's CEO Steve Schale said. "He is running until he is not."

[...]

In recent weeks, Anita Dunn, who left the White House in August after a short stint as a senior adviser, has made calls to Democratic Party leaders and activists, assuring them Biden will run for reelection, according to people familiar with the calls.

From her perch at SKDK, a consulting firm she helps run, Dunn still serves as one of Biden's most trusted and influential political advisers and is deeply involved in plotting out his political future. If Biden decides to run, Dunn is likely to be a key part of his team with O'Malley Dillon, allies say. Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon, two of Biden's top White House advisers, are also expected to be deeply involved in campaign strategy and messaging, they say.

[...]

There is little sign at the moment of much appetite for a liberal challenge to Biden if he mounts another campaign. The president has won plaudits from liberal lawmakers this year for pursuing an ambitious domestic agenda.

"President Biden will enjoy strong support from many progressives when he runs for reelection. He will certainly have mine," said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who co-chaired the campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in 2020.

[...]

[NewYorkExpress]

Are we going to have a "will he or won't he" for Biden for the third cycle in a row?

He needs to make a decision on running and announce it before the midterms.

[wildviper121]

I mean he has said he's running.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-reelection-2024/2021/11/20/0779469c-4947-11ec-95dc-5f2a96e00fa3_story.html

[brucejoel99]

Are we going to have a "will he or won't he" for Biden for the third cycle in a row?

I mean, that was pretty predictably inevitable as soon as the race was called for him a year ago. Hell, he could publicly say tomorrow that he'll be running for re-election & the media will still feel compelled to make a "will he or won't he" game out of it because of the clicks & ratings that doing so would generate, & we know this because he already did so 8 months ago.

He needs to make a decision on running and announce it before the midterms.

No, he doesn't. For one thing, him immediately making it crystal-clear still wouldn't actually result in the media acting as if it's crystal-clear for the hitherto aforementioned reason, but in any event, announcing would distract from the midterms.

[Bootes Void]

Are we going to have a "will he or won't he" for Biden for the third cycle in a row?

He needs to make a decision on running and announce it before the midterms.

Why would you announce it before the midterms? That's makes no sense

[Mr. Morden]

Pence headed to NH on Dec. 8:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2024-watch-pence-heading-back-to-first-presidential-primary-state

Meanwhile, Trump defends his fixation on the 2020 election, and downplays the 2024 talk because “we’re not going to have a country” in three years:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-2024-mike-lindell-interview-1650121

"I have a lot of good people say, sir, forget about 2020. You're going to win [in 2024], you're way up in the polls, you're going to win, I say we're not going to have a country in three years," Trump said.
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Elsewhere during the interview, Trump said that the subject that his supporters "want to talk about more than any" are the disproven claims of election fraud in 2020.

"They want that fixed because they can't have a country without that. I used to say borders, you've got to have borders—we don't have borders—but we don't have elections and we don't have a free and fair press. So this country has a long way to go."

Trump also claimed during the interview that the reason the press aren't writing about the "2020 presidential election scam" is because he and his allies are "too close" to proving it.

[Mr. Morden]

I mean he has said he's running.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-reelection-2024/2021/11/20/0779469c-4947-11ec-95dc-5f2a96e00fa3_story.html

This is an interesting tidbit from that story:

Former Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe spoke during his gubernatorial campaign about possibly running in 2024 if Biden steps aside, according to multiple people familiar with the conversations, but his defeat in this month’s election casts that plan into doubt.

In any case, here’s the latest on this from today:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/22/politics/joe-biden-reelection-2024/index.html

When White House press secretary Jen Psaki was asked aboard Air Force One whether she could confirm if he was going to run again in 2024 and whether he was telling staff that, she responded, "Yes, that's his intention."
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The White House has also not indicated whether Biden would automatically endorse his choice for vice president, Kamala Harris, should he decide not to run.

When asked whether Harris could expect the President's automatic endorsement if she decides to run for political office in either 2024 or 2028, Psaki said earlier this month, "I don't have any predictions of whether she will run, when she will run. I will leave that to her."

[Mr. Morden]

On Sunday, Sununu was asked again about a presidential run:

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/582535-sununu-sidesteps-question-on-running-for-president-in-2024?rl=1

Asked by co-host Dana Bash on CNN’s “State of the Union” if he is considering a bid for the White House, Sununu said he will “see what the future brings.”

“Now, people have asked me about that. And I have got to win in '22. I still have an election and earn the votes of the people in New Hampshire in 2022, serve a couple years,” said Sununu, who announced earlier this month that he would pass on a bid for the Senate next year to instead run for reelection in New Hampshire.

“We will see what the future brings. But there is a lot to do and a lot to not just push back with Washington, but a lot to implement here. Being governor is one of the most challenging jobs you can ever imagine. You got to be on 24/7. But I have the opportunity to do things, a dozen different things every single day that impact people's lives,” he added.

Sununu said his job as chief executive of the Granite State is “incredibly fulfilling,” adding that “that’s the job I’m focused on.”

[Mr. Morden]

Buttigieg says he’s not thinking about what comes next after his current job:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/24/pete-buttigieg-presidential-buzz-white-house-523281

“I’d say the other thing that I'm really enjoying about this job, although it's very demanding and obviously requiring a lot, is that this is the least I have had to think about campaigns and elections in about a decade and that's a very good thing,” he told POLITICO on Friday, amidst people in hard hats and bright yellow safety vests in a construction zone near Terminal 4 at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport.

That same story notes that some of Buttigieg’s campaign infrastructure is waiting in the wings:

The political action committee he formed in the aftermath of the presidential race, Win the Era, is mostly keeping quiet, but the website remains up and has been organizing occasional events including one on Nov. 15. Former campaign aides Maxwell Nunes and Michael Halle have been helping keep it afloat, according to filings and disbursement reports. Neither of them responded to messages.

As for the reports of an emerging rivalry with the vice president, Buttigieg said: “We work extremely well with the vice president's team, and I'm proud to be part of the Biden-Harris team and this administration.”