States with large swings that were not widely expected

[Orser67]

I'm curious, what are some states that had large swings that were not generally expected prior to the election? IN in 2008 and MI in 2016 come to mind, but what are some other examples, recent or not?

[MIKESOWELL]

Even though Clinton won it in 1992, the large swing towards Clinton that Louisiana took in 1996 comes to mind.

[Sumner 1868]

If you read the press from the time, many observers were skeptical that LBJ would win Vermont in 1964 despite huge polling leads and the recent election of Phillip Hoff as governor.

[Orser67]

Looking at some old Sabato articles, the biggest one they got wrong on election day in 2016 was calling WI Likely D (whereas PA and MI were Lean D). They also labeled a bunch of Trump states as Lean D, though it's worth noting that they didn't use the Tossup or Tilt categories.

They got all but two states right in 2012: they wrongly predicted FL and VA(!) would go for Romney, having both as Lean R (and they specifically noted that VA was really a complete tossup, alongside Colorado and New Hampshire).

They got all but two things right in 2008: they wrongly said that McCain would win NE-2 and Indiana. But credit to them for this statement: "If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota."

In 2004, they got two states wrong: they called Florida for Democrats, and Wisconsin for Republicans, but in both cases they stated that their confidence was "low".

So for Sabato for these elections, it seems like the two biggest surprises were WI in 2016 and IN in 2008.

[Arbitrage1980]

Indiana 08 was absolutely stunning.
W Bush's 5% margin in FL in 04 was surprising since he barely won it in 00, and most people thought it was going to be razor thin in 04. Bush outperformed with Latinos in South Florida and Tampa and Orlando suburban voters.

[darklordoftech]

Were/are there differences in the voting tendencies of the tobacco south, the cotton south, and sugar south?

[ottermax]

Indiana 08 was absolutely stunning.
W Bush's 5% margin in FL in 04 was surprising since he barely won it in 00, and most people thought it was going to be razor thin in 04. Bush outperformed with Latinos in South Florida and Tampa and Orlando suburban voters.

Indiana's 08 result is truly remarkable... it is such a deep red state, but it was also considered pretty red in 2008...

[OSR stands with Israel]

Probably these:


1980: AR or MA
1984: Literally Nothing
1988: Iowa(A state that had not gone Democratic since 1964 not only votes Dem but voted Dem by double digits in a year that HW Bush won easily)
1992: New Hampshire
1996: Again Nothing
2000: West Virginia
2004: Florida
2008: Indiana
2012: Nothing
2016: Michigan

[morgankingsley]

Indiana 08 was absolutely stunning.

Yeah it was totally out of nowhere

[Arbitrage1980]

Probably these:


1980: AR or MA
1984: Literally Nothing
1988: Iowa(A state that had not gone Democratic since 1964 not only votes Dem but voted Dem by double digits in a year that HW Bush won easily)
1992: New Hampshire
1996: Again Nothing
2000: West Virginia
2004: Florida
2008: Indiana
2012: Nothing
2016: Michigan

1996 I would add Arizona. Clinton is the only Democrat since Truman 1948 to win Arizona.

[Gracile]

Much of the South in 2000 was not entirely expected to swing heavily toward Bush, especially WV and AR given their histories as a heavily Democratic state relative to the nation and the President's home state, respectively. Similarly, in 2004 WV was seen as a state that Kerry could potentially make up a lot of ground (many of the pundits rated it as a battleground or merely "Lean Republican"), and it ended up being a pretty resounding Bush victory. I remember looking back at some Atlas posts at the time, and several people expected WV to be a state that was likely to flip back.

[Arbitrage1980]

Much of the South in 2000 was not entirely expected to swing heavily toward Bush, especially WV and AR given their histories as a heavily Democratic state relative to the nation and the President's home state, respectively. Similarly, in 2004 WV was seen as a state that Kerry could potentially make up a lot of ground (many of the pundits rated it as a battleground or merely "Lean Republican"), and it ended up being a pretty resounding Bush victory. I remember looking back at some Atlas posts at the time, and several people expected WV to be a state that was likely to flip back.

The Bush campaign aggressively targeted the border and southern states that Clinton won twice: WV, KY, TN, MO, AR, LA. Any one of those states would have resulted in a Gore victory. But Gore was too liberal on guns, abortion, and the environment.

WV is fascinating. Both Kerry and Obama lost the state by 13%. The real shift happened in 2012 when Romney won it by 27%. Obama's policies and cultural liberalism alienated West Virginians, and his second term was even worse than his first. Trump's 42% margin is the largest in the state's history, surpassing Lincoln's 1864 margin.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Vermont swing 10% Dem in 2004 even as pretty much everywhere else got a little more Republican

[538Electoral]

WI, MI, PA, ME, IA, OH 2016.

[Vosem]

IN was polling at like McCain+1 the day of the 2008 election; that Obama ended up narrowly winning it wasn't terribly shocking in the context of the campaign. Some of his margins in the Western tossups (especially NV, but also CO) were surprising, though.

MI in 2016 was much more of a shock, as was the size of the swing in some of the northern Plains states like IA and ND. Conversely, most didn't expect CA to swing as much to Clinton.

[Arbitrage1980]

Vermont swing 10% Dem in 2004 even as pretty much everywhere else got a little more Republican

Correct, although 2000 is an anomaly because Nader got 7% in VT. However, it is true that VT's traditional anti-war isolationist streak hurt Bush in 04 while helping him in most parts of the country.

[Orser67]

MI in 2016 was much more of a shock, as was the size of the swing in some of the northern Plains states like IA and ND. Conversely, most didn't expect CA to swing as much to Clinton.

Yeah, other than MI, IA might have had the most surprising swing of 2016. Most prognosticators expected Trump to win the state, but the size of his victory was surprising given that it had given Obama 5 and 10 point victories.

[lfromnj]

How expected was Texas's swing in 2016. I think like a month before there were some rumors but that was mostly shut down the few weeks before the election but in the end there was a decent size swing.