What a Presidential Collapse looks like

[pbrower2a]

I am not predicting a Trump collapse until it happens.

With some caveats:

1. The last two times that the incumbent President lost in a landslide were 1992 (OK, but after three terms of Presidents of the same party) and 1980. If it were Hillary Clinton in trouble, I would refer to the difference between George H W Bush between 1988 and 1992. Trump is the President, so the one relevant to Trump is Carter between 1976 and 1980.

2. The political realities of 2016 and 2020 are very different from those of 1976 and 1980. America is much more ideologically polarized.

3. Jimmy Carter and Donald Trump are very different in personality, character, and curricula vitae.

On the other hand, Carter and Trump both barely got elected, and both ended up in trouble with the  "Deep State" of the military, the intelligence services, the diplomatic corps,  and federal law enforcement. Does this sound familiar? Republicans typically win heavily on single-issue voters on the one issue of national security. I have no idea of how many people that is, but it is significant. That constituency can swing back to the GOP in 2024... but that is beyond the scope of this discussion.


OK. Here are the results for Jimmy Carter's barest losses of 1976, those by 6% or less, followed by Reagan's margin in 1980:

ND   5.85   39.89
MI   5.39     6.49
CT   5.17     9.63
NV   4.36   35.64
WA   3.88   12.34
NM   2.47   18.18
NJ    2.16   13.42
IL    1.97     7.93
CA   1.78    16.78
SD   1.48    28.83
VA   1.34    12.72
OK  1.21     25.53
IA   1.01     12.71
ME  0.84     10.20
OR  0.17      9.96

You will notice that the state closest in margins for Ford and Reagan was Michigan. It is hard to believe that any state could swing 34%... but North Dakota did.  Aside from Michigan, the smallest swings toward Reagan were 4.46% (Connecticut), 5.94% (Illinois), Maine (9.36%), and Oregon (9.79%), all of the states that Carter lost by less than 6% swung by more than 10% away from him.

Although it is possible to win with one's barest losses swinging away (just look at Missouri in 2012 for Obama), such is unlikely to portend a win following a close election. 2008 was not close, and 2012 was 'close to being close'. I thought that Mitt Romney was going to win Florida.

Here are Trump's eight barest losses of 2016, and the range is wider:

OR 10.98
NM   8.21 
VA   5.32
CO   4.91
ME   2.96
NV   2.42
MN   1.51
NH   0.37

Sure, he can lose every one of these and still win -- but his polling in these states is execrable. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Trump campaign once again is 12 points behind Biden
 The Dubya comeback of 2004 was also due to the Reagan funeral of 2004. Even Dubya couldnt back from these devestating numbers.

Dems will sweep the elections of 2020 and return to majority status since 2008

[Person Man]

The Trump campaign once again is 12 points behind Biden
 The Dubya comeback of 2004 was also due to the Reagan funeral of 2004. Even Dubya couldnt back from these devestating numbers.

Dems will sweep the elections of 2020 and return to majority status since 2008

I thought they hired a bunch a of old Navy subordinates to call him a bad soldier coming off the GOP convention. He went from about 4 or 5 points ahead to about 4 or 5 points behind (Kerry was ahead from a really good convention and the Abu Ghraib scandal that turned most of the hawkish dems against the war). He did well in the debate and he pulled even with W but then the Veep debates went the same as they did in 2012 where the challenger did well but the incumbent was like "dude, just stfu". The incumbent was able to spin the performance into a rescue operation and what finished Kerry off was OBL saying that he was as prepared to jihad against Kerry's America as he was Trump's.

July  2004
https://www.270towin.com/maps/Ablzl

August 2004
https://www.270towin.com/maps/6bLPw

October 2004
https://www.270towin.com/maps/O8mXQ

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A collapse like Jimmy Carter's in 1980 (which would take a recession to happen) is possible in terms of popular vote. But a 9-10 point defeat would look like this:

Still 413 EVs, which is nothing to sneeze at.

[onejayhawk]

The correct year is probably 1984, or perhaps 1964.

As an incumbent, Trump has more in common with Reagan than with Carter--peace, prosperity, the ability to bypass the media, unusually strong support within the party faithful. Carter had a wrecked economy, the hostage situation, indifferent contact with the people and poor support from his own party.

J

[Person Man]

The correct year is probably 1984, or perhaps 1964.

As an incumbent, Trump has more in common with Reagan than with Carter--peace, prosperity, the ability to bypass the media, unusually strong support within the party faithful. Carter had a wrecked economy, the hostage situation, indifferent contact with the people and poor support from his own party.

J

It isn't bypassing the media, its controlling the media. The way you pull it off is to deny plausibility. What do you mean by "Peace" and "Prosperity". It was here before Trump was here. The only thing that has changed is that it has been extended through appeasement and corruption. And hey. That can work for a while, I guess.