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  Talk Elections
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  2020 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  NH-Emerson: Shaheen +12
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Author Topic: NH-Emerson: Shaheen +12  (Read 482 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« on: November 26, 2019, 09:21:23 pm »

52% Jeanne Shaheen (D, inc.)
40% Corey Lewandowski (R)

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/11/27/new-hampshire-2020-sanders-jumps-to-lead-buttigieg-surges-while-warren-and-biden-slip/
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2019, 06:10:29 am »

My ultimate prediction is Shaheen by 5 or 6.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2019, 06:22:03 am »

Race never was gonna be competetive
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2019, 07:51:51 am »

If NH is close in the presidential this can be within 5 or 6, but don't see it any better than that for Republicans as long as Lewandowski is the candidate and Shaheen remains popular.
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2019, 10:45:34 am »

If Republicans net anything in the senate, it was because Trump won in a landslide and took the house.  This just confirms that.

The most likely Trump victory scenario has Gardner, James, and Lewandowski losing by 3 or 4, Tuberville winning by 10-15, and the margin in the house being halved.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2019, 10:52:17 am »

If Republicans net anything in the senate, it was because Trump won in a landslide and took the house.  This just confirms that.

The most likely Trump victory scenario has Gardner, James, and Lewandowski losing by 3 or 4, Tuberville winning by 10-15, and the margin in the house being halved.

Is it really a landslide if R's hold onto Arizona and lose Colorado but flip Alabama and Michigan?
I mean Trump almost certainly wins Michigan in any of his victory scenarios so if Trump is winning Michigan James is probably winning the senate race too.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2019, 11:58:58 am »

This is more a lewendowski problem than anything else. Can you see someone so tied to Trump but actually convicted winning Rockingham? I can't. The recent trend of Trump's convicted cronys running for office is going to hurt the GOP in the end, because these candidates will clean up with the primary electorate. They however cannot win Trump-dissaproving GOP voters that other congressional candadites would clean up with, because they are both tied at the hip and convicted in court or in the court of public opinion.
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