Senate Vulnerability Rankings From The Washington Post

[nclib]

Here is Chris Cillizza (from Wash. post) rankings of the ten most vulnerable Senate seats. Let me know what you think of this list.

http://blogs.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/01/the_friday_line.html

10. Tennessee -- OPEN (Republican Bill Frist is retiring): As noted yesterday in The Fix, Harold Ford Jr. is running a very sound campaign.  His $1 million raised in the final three months of 2005 is an impressive take, and Ford's boast that he will raise and spend $12 million on the race no longer seems all that far-fetched. Republicans seem headed for a nasty three-way primary between two conservative candidates (former Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary) and a moderate/establishment candidate (former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker). Much depends on the political environment when calculating Ford's chances here. In a neutral environment, he likely loses. But if the atmospherics clearly favor Democrats in November, Ford has put himself in position to steal a seat. (Previous ranking: N/A)

9. Nebraska - Democrat Ben Nelson: Pete Ricketts is winning converts among the Republican establishment with his TV ads -- produced by Doug McAuliffe, who also did the ads for then businessman Chuck Hagel's (R) upset defeat of Nelson in the 1996 Senate race. Ricketts has financed the spots with $935,000 in personal donations to the campaign, and he appears willing to put considerably more of his personal wealth into the contest as the primary and general election near. Nelson is a hard target for Republicans, however. He rarely gives them an opening to attack him and has a battle-tested campaign team. Ricketts must get through a primary against two other Republicans (including 2000 nominee Don Stenberg) for Republicans to have a chance here, but the likelihood of that scenario continues to grow. (Previous ranking: 10)

8. Washington - Democrat Maria Cantwell: Cantwell had a strong December, emerging as the leading opponent of drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and winning a face-off on the issue with Alaska Republican Sen. Ted Stevens. Mike McGavick, the former chairman of Safeco insurance and the likely Republican nominee, continues to maintain a low profile -- focusing on building a statewide organization and raising campaign cash. In a neutral year environmentally, Cantwell could be in major trouble. But given the likely Democrat tilt of the playing field and the Democratic nature of Washington State, she is an early favorite. (Previous ranking:

6. (tie) Maryland - OPEN (Democrat Paul Sarbanes is retiring): It remains to be seen whether former Rep. Kweisi Mfume can be competitive with Rep. Ben Cardin in the September Democratic primary given the latter's massive fundraising edge. Republicans acknowledge a general election pitting Cardin against Steele is a more difficult fight than an Mfume-Steele matchup, but they are convinced their candidate is a national star in the making. Democrats are confident that either Mfume or Cardin can beat Steele, who they see as a decidedly overrated candidate in this strongly Democratic state.  (Previous ranking: 6)

6. (tie) Missouri -- Republican Jim Talent: Democrats are quick to point to a Rasmussen Research poll out this week that shows state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) with a 46 percent to 43 percent lead. The Fix remains skeptical of Rasmussen's automated-dialing methodology (as opposed to employing human callers), but what the survey shows is that the race is probably closer than Republicans are prepared to concede. Talent has committed no fireable offenses since beating Sen. Jean Carnahan (D) in 2002, and given his campaign skills he doesn't seem likely to make a major gaffe. McCaskill needs a Democratic wind at her back to knock off Talent in this increasingly red state. (Previous ranking: 7)

5. Minnesota -- OPEN (Democrat Mark Dayton is retiring): Of all the races in the top 10, none has been quieter than Minnesota over the past month. Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) is running a solid (if unspectacular) campaign, and Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) still seems to be the likely Democratic nominee. Wealthy attorney Mike Ciresi (D) continues to mull a candidacy and could cloud the Democratic picture if he decides to run. (Previous ranking: 4)

4. Montana -- Republican Conrad Burns: The plea deal struck by lobbyist Jack Abramoff earlier this week is bad news for Burns since it means the disgraced influence peddler and his connections to members of Congress will be a major story both nationally and locally for weeks and months to come. Democrats have already run two television ads linking Burns to Abramoff, and there will be many more between now and Election Day.  A Mason-Dixon poll released on Christmas Day showed that Burns's leads over two potential Democratic nominees -- state Auditor John Morrison and state Sen. Jon Tester -- had slipped. Burns is in for a battle but has shown an ability to win tight races -- his 2000 victory over now Gov. Brian Schweitzer being the best example. (Previous ranking: 5)

3. Ohio -- Republican Mike DeWine: In the last incarnation of the Friday Senate line, we contemplated leapfrogging Ohio into the no. 2 slot over Rhode Island. After another month of reflection, we believe this race is in the right spot.  DeWine's sole vulnerability appears to be the dismal state of the Ohio Republican Party, a situation likely to get worse before it gets better considering Rep. Bob Ney's (R) problems in connection with the Abramoff investigation. Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett and Rep. Sherrod Brown seem headed for a knock-down, drag-out primary brawl; Hackett's recent endorsement by the Ohio United Auto Workers shows that he is a candidate who needs to be taken seriously. DeWine faces his toughest reelection bid but should not be counted out yet. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Rhode Island -- Republican Lincoln Chafee: The fundraising reports covering the last three months of 2005 -- due out later this month -- should provide an interesting barometer on how focused Chafee really is on his reelection race. If he makes a significant improvement on his dismal ($287,000) fundraising total from July 1 to Sept. 30, it is a sign that Chafee is engaged in the contest. If he continues to flag on the fundraising front, it could be a dire sign for his chances against Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey in the GOP primary.  (Chafee, of course, has considerable personal wealth and could simply cut himself a check at any point, though he has not done so in previous campaigns.) For Democrats, Secretary of State Matt Brown is running the more aggressive campaign, but former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse remains the frontrunner for now. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Pennsylvania -- Republican Rick Santorum: Santorum remains in grave danger of losing his reelection race. But now that the calendar reads 2006, The Fix wonders whether state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D) will finally make the rounds in Washington, D.C., and begin to make clear where he stands on the issues of the day. Casey's "rose garden" strategy was effective in 2005 (as evidenced by his double-digit poll lead), but he must now take his case to the voters -- and the press -- if he hopes to beat the resilient Santorum. Some inside-the-Beltway political pros are already laying money down on a Santorum upset. (Previous ranking: 1)

[Gustaf]

I disagree with some of it. I seriously doubt that Cantwell or Nelson should even be up there, definitely not that high. I also don't think Chaffey is number 2. I think Ohio should be further down, MO and MT further up.

[Dave from Michigan]

some of it is ok, but some of it is just wrong.  Stabenow is more at risk that Cantwell, not that either will lose.

[nini2287]

How could they not list NJ on there?  Montana is overrated, Burns will win by 8-10 points.

[Keystone Phil]

How could they not list NJ on there?  Montana is overrated, Burns will win by 8-10 points.

I agree. NJ will be one of the big ones and I'm not saying it'll be just top 10 (maybe in the top 5).

[Gabu]

How could they not list NJ on there?  Montana is overrated, Burns will win by 8-10 points.

I agree. NJ will be one of the big ones and I'm not saying it'll be just top 10 (maybe in the top 5).

And Pennsylvania shouldn't even be up there, right Phil?

[Keystone Phil]

How could they not list NJ on there?  Montana is overrated, Burns will win by 8-10 points.

I agree. NJ will be one of the big ones and I'm not saying it'll be just top 10 (maybe in the top 5).

And Pennsylvania shouldn't even be up there, right Phil?

Santorum - 65%
Casey - 20%
Hoeffel - 15%

That's the way it's going. Write it down.     

[Virginian87]

Phil and nini are right.  New Jersey ought to be listed, and listed high at that.  Kean has an excellent chance of winning, especially if it's against Menendez.  Rhode Island should not nearly be ranked so high.  Laffey will not be able to cut it against Chafee, and once the primary is over, the seat should be Chafee's to lose.

[Smash255]

How could they not list NJ on there?  Montana is overrated, Burns will win by 8-10 points.

Abramoff will sink Burns

[7,052,770]

drat, I was hoping to see my state on that list...

[Virginian87]

How could they not list NJ on there?  Montana is overrated, Burns will win by 8-10 points.

Abramoff will sink Burns

^^^^^And it's just going to get worse for him. 

[nini2287]

How could they not list NJ on there?  Montana is overrated, Burns will win by 8-10 points.

Abramoff will sink Burns

^^^^^And it's just going to get worse for him. 

I think he'll be able to turn it around, I'm still betting that last poll was an outlier.  I think the Abramoff stuff will have cleared up a bit by Election Day, but we'll see.  I'm certianly hoping he loses!

[Smash255]

How could they not list NJ on there?  Montana is overrated, Burns will win by 8-10 points.

Abramoff will sink Burns

^^^^^And it's just going to get worse for him. 

I think he'll be able to turn it around, I'm still betting that last poll was an outlier.  I think the Abramoff stuff will have cleared up a bit by Election Day, but we'll see.  I'm certianly hoping he loses!

The Abramoff mess will pretty much only get worse for Burns.  At this point I may put Montana 2nd as best chance to flip.  Even if very little else comes out the mere association wiith Abramoff may have done enough damage as it is, and if more comes out?  Forget it he is toast

[nini2287]

How could they not list NJ on there?  Montana is overrated, Burns will win by 8-10 points.

Abramoff will sink Burns

^^^^^And it's just going to get worse for him. 

I think he'll be able to turn it around, I'm still betting that last poll was an outlier.  I think the Abramoff stuff will have cleared up a bit by Election Day, but we'll see.  I'm certianly hoping he loses!

The Abramoff mess will pretty much only get worse for Burns.  At this point I may put Montana 2nd as best chance to flip.  Even if very little else comes out the mere association wiith Abramoff may have done enough damage as it is, and if more comes out?  Forget it he is toast

Well, we'll see but I would still bet on Burns on this one.

For the record, I'll say:

1 - PA
2 - MO
3 - OH
4 - NJ
5 - MN
6 - MD
7 - TN
8 - RI
9 - MT
10 - WA

[Rococo4]

NJ should be on the list w/o question.  I wouldnt say Ohio is #3, despite DeWine's weakness.  Maryland should be higher, and Montana probably should too.  Rhode Island seems fine for now.  If Chafee wins his primary, this seat should slide way down the list.  I also agree Michiagn is more problematic for Democrats right now than Washington, though I would say they are ok in both right now.

[MissCatholic]

1. Pennslyvania
2. Missouri
3. New Jersey
4. Ohio
5. Montana
6. Minnesota
7. Rhode Island
8. Maryland
9. Tennessee
10. Nebraksa

[nclib]

How could they not list NJ on there?

Actually, he listed NJ on the previous month's list, but this month replaced it with Tennessee.

[Jake]

1. PA
2. RI
3. NJ
4. MT
5. MN
6. OH
7. MO
8. MD
9. TN
10. NE

Only ones with realistic chances of switching are the first seven.

[nini2287]

How could they not list NJ on there?

Actually, he listed NJ on the previous month's list, but this month replaced it with Tennessee.

I see both seats as 'in play'.  I see nine seats as potentially changing hands barring new candidates or retirements- PA, RI, NJ, MN, MD, TN, MT, MO and OH.

[MissCatholic]

How could they not list NJ on there?

Actually, he listed NJ on the previous month's list, but this month replaced it with Tennessee.

I see both seats as 'in play'.  I see nine seats as potentially changing hands barring new candidates or retirements- PA, RI, NJ, MN, MD, TN, MT, MO and OH.

and hopefully by today we can add MS to the list.

[TheresNoMoney]

and hopefully by today we can add MS to the list.

Lott is definitely going to run again.

[7,052,770]

and hopefully by today we can add MS to the list.

Lott is definitely going to run again.

we'll see...