Big cities

[memphis]

They're super trendy right now. Will big cities turn around the population losses of recent decades to show a gain for the 2010 Census? Which ones more than others?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not many big cities have been decling; they've just got more spread out. Oh, do you mean city as in within the "city" limits?

[memphis]

I mean the actual cities. Not the metro areas.

[dazzleman]

I think that certain cities, the ones that have positive cultural and entertainment facilities to offer, are enjoying a rebound.

It's part of the natural cycle of things.  Eventually, people get sick of having to travel long distances to get places, and crave the convenience of the city.

As long as a person lives in a nice low-crime neighborhood with good neighbors, the city can be a great place to live.

Add in crime and trashy neighbors all around you, and it's not so good.  So it really all depends on the quality of the urban environment.

I don't believe that cities will become popular again for middle class families until they find a way to improve their school systems, or offer some type of better choice in schools than they currently do.  There isn't a major city in this country with a decent school system, and that is a great barrier to attracting people with kids who don't have loads of money for private schools.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As long as a person lives in a nice low-crime neighborhood with good neighbors, the city can be a great place to live.

But wait, I thought cities were always inferior to the suburbs and my aunt who actually enjoys living in basically what you described was a very big exception and I was an idiot for thinking cities are so infinintely superior to suburbs?

[dazzleman]

As long as a person lives in a nice low-crime neighborhood with good neighbors, the city can be a great place to live.

But wait, I thought cities were always inferior to the suburbs and my aunt who actually enjoys living in basically what you described was a very big exception and I was an idiot for thinking cities are so infinintely superior to suburbs?

You're an idiot because, among many other reasons, you don't see how different lifestyles lead to different choices of places to live.  You're an idiot because you can't see why everybody wouldn't be happy living in a rat-trap apartment for life in a seedy neighborhood surrounded by trashy people.

I know you're quite comfortable in that environment, but others want something better.  Some can get it in cities, and others have to go outside cities to get what they want or need.

Not being able to see beyond a very narrow personal circumstance is a sign of either (a) stupidity (b) immaturity (c) selfishness or (d) narcissism, or a combination of all 4.

[Cubby]

They're super trendy right now. Will big cities turn around the population losses of recent decades to show a gain for the 2010 Census? Which ones more than others?

If you look at the Census Bureau numbers, you'll see that most cities are declining this decade, like they did in the 50's through the 80's. The 90's were a fluke b/c we had very high levels of immigration, which made it seem as if people were moving back to cities when in fact the suburbs were still popular. The housing craze since 2001 has only accelerated the move to the exurbs.

[bgwah]

Seattle gained back its lost population (about 100,000 people) by the 2000 census. It's still growing. Same story with New York. A lot (if not most) cities saw gains from 1990 to 2000, and I don't expect that to change.

Like dazzleman said, even if you live in a nice neighborhood in a city, families will usually want parks and good schools, and most cities can't provide this.

Another big problem I see is affordablity. A 1500 square foot house in the exurbs is a lot cheaper than a 1500 square foot condo downtown.

Condos need to be cheaper to actually compete with the suburbs for the middle class and families.

[opebo]

You're an idiot because, among many other reasons, you don't see how different lifestyles lead to different choices of places to live. 

The problem is, dazzleman, that your suburban lifestyle choice is hugely and regressively subsidized by the State.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There are parks in the cities. In fact there's one right next to my aunt's block.

[tarheel-leftist85]

I don't think so...actually NYC is losing again, and I expect LA to start declining by the end of the decade.  Chicago is losing people to.  The only top 20 cities I expect to make significant gains are Dallas, San Antonio, Jacksonville, Austin, Fort Worth, and Charlotte.  Actually, if trends persisted Phoenix has surpassed Philadelphia.

[bullmoose88]

I think Philadelphia (city/county) is actually going to register a small increase in population, which would stop decades long streak of population loss.

[Cubby]

I think Philadelphia (city/county) is actually going to register a small increase in population, which would stop decades long streak of population loss.

Do you know why? Is it economic or have urban conditions improved? Philadelphia's population has declined since 1950, but at a slower rate than Midwest cities (St. Louis, Cleveland, etc.)

There was an unrelated story in the New York Times a few months ago that said some people are so fed up with the high rents and small living space of New York City that they have moved to Downtown Philadelphia, not to commute but to live. From the stories they mentioned, it seemed like artists and the like. Usually they go to Brooklyn. I wonder what will happen to Brooklyn if it gets gentrified like Manhattan, where will all the poor minorities move?

[Tender Branson]

I think Philadelphia (city/county) is actually going to register a small increase in population, which would stop decades long streak of population loss.

Phoenix is now bigger than Philadelphia. This city is losing up to 0,5% of its population each year. San Antonio, San Diego and Dallas will also leave Philadelphia behind in the next 20 years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"...if current trends continue"

[Tender Branson]

"...if current trends continue"

If current trends continue, even Las Vegas would be bigger than Philadelphia in 2020. Las Vegas grew 6.5% per year between 1990 and 2000. It won´t be that high in the coming years, but i´d say we can´t rule out a population of 1 mio. or more in 2020. Would be an annual 3.8%. Currently it has 600.000 living in the city area, up from 165.000 in 1980.

When it comes to San Antonio, San Diego and Dallas i think current trends will continue and they overtake Philadelphia in the coming 20-30 years.

[jimrtex]

Family sizes are declining, so areas with single-unit housing are declining in population.   Within cities with well-established limits, there is no vacant land, or land that becomes available, such as former industrial sites is usually too expensive to re-develop as single-unit housing.  An aging population means that a larger share of housing is also owned by empty nesters.

With fewer children, small neighborhood schools may be closed.  If you have 80 YO schools, it is generally cheaper to knock them down.  If you start over, you probably will consolidate on fewer sites.  And the inner city schools might not be seen as being very good or safe.  Single people in their 20s do not see risks in living in a mixed commercial areas; parents in their 30s see risks for their children and move to the suburbs.

If there is a revival, it is in high rises and aparments in mixed use areas that are primarily attractive to singles or DINKs.  There may be an increase of population in downtown areas.  But this may depend on there also being jobs available that can pay the rent.

[Smash255]

I don't think so...actually NYC is losing again, and I expect LA to start declining by the end of the decade.  Chicago is losing people to.  The only top 20 cities I expect to make significant gains are Dallas, San Antonio, Jacksonville, Austin, Fort Worth, and Charlotte.  Actually, if trends persisted Phoenix has surpassed Philadelphia.

Thats actually incorrect.  According to the Census Bureau NYC's population in 2000 was a shade over 8 million, 8.008, in 2004 according to the Census Bureau the populatin was 8.168 million.  approx 160,000 gain

[Tender Branson]

The city of Surprise in AZ just crossed the 100.000 mark.

For comparison:

1980 pop: 3.723
1990 pop: 7.122
2000 pop: 30.848
2010 pop: close to 200.000 ?

I find this city development amazing !