Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[voice_of_resistance]

yeah, GA-02 is trending rightward, but fairly slowly. if you look at where the population is growing in the district, it's in the urban portions (Columbus/Macon). rural whites won't perhaps vote for someone like Stacey Abrams, but a new Sanford Bishop, maybe Jason Carter or some other moderate AA Dem, would do quite well. And just because the rural AA population is decreasing doesn't mean it doesn't exist at all anymore. It's still quite sizeable, to the point where as long as the VRA exists in its current form, which I don't think even this Supreme Court would touch, they can't baconmander the current GA-02 with GA-08, so they are better off keeping it there as a way to pack Dem voters in southwest GA.

[voice_of_resistance]

Also like 90 percent of what Idaho Conservative has said is either illegal already or would get struck down in court as illegal.

[voice_of_resistance]

Here's my take on a fair map, prioritizing competitive districts.
http://dra-purple.indirect.cc/join/2591876f-608d-47c7-93b9-8514c62d4b53

By district:

GA-01: Savannah, Coast. Trump 56-41. Essentially unchanged. Safe R with Carter, Likely R with OPEN

GA-02: SW, 44% BVAP. Bishop should survive here, even though this seat is now Clinton 49-49. Likely D with Bishop, Tossup if OPEN

GA-03: western Georgia, Atlanta far exurbs, Trump 67-30. Ferguson will be fine here. Safe R

GA-04: this seat takes in some of Gwinnett, and is Clinton 72-24. Johnson will be fine as his base in Lithonia is in the seat, and its VAP is 40% white, 10% Hispanic, and 43% black. Safe D

GA-05: south Fulton, SW DeKalb. This seat is 67% BVAP, and Lewis will be fine until he dies. Safe D

GA-06: Cobb, this seat gets cleaned up a lot. McBath will be fine, as it is Clinton 49-46. Likely D with McBath, Lean D if OPEN

GA-07: Roswell, Sandy Springs, Alpharetta. Succeeding the old GA-06, this seat is Clinton 51-45. A moderate Republican would do well here, and but it is Clinton +6 and trending leftward, so this seat is Lean D

GA-08: south Georgia, Warner Robins, Valdosta, Waycross. Essentially all the rural red portions of Southern GA. Jim Marshall could have won this 15 years ago, but Austin Scott is untouchable as it is Trump 67-31. Safe R

GA-09: northeast GA, Dalton, Dahlonega, Augusta suburbs. Essentially the GA-09 from the 2000s, and Collins' successor will be safe here as it is Trump 75-22. Safe R

GA-10: Athens, Winder, Conyers, Lawrenceville. This seat is Clinton 49-48. It has counterbalancing trends, from the Atlanta suburbs in the west all the way to Winder and Watkinsville in the east. This seat would be a fair-fight seat, and Jody Hice would be in a competitive race. Tossup

GA-11: Gainesville, Cumming, Jefferson. This seat is the successor to the old GA-07, and takes in the northeastern suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta, including Forsyth/Hall Counties. This seat is Trump 68-28, so it is Safe R.

GA-12: Statesboro, Augusta, Macon, Milledgeville. This seat is essentially an eastern Black Belt seat that should be competitive for a Blue Dog Dem. It is Clinton 49-49, and the trends in the south of the district make it such that only someone like John Barrow would make it competitive. Still, it has a sizeable rural black population and is 42% BVAP. Tossup

GA-13: Forest Park, McDonough, Griffin. This seat takes in the southernmost suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta, and is plurality-black VAP, total population is 52% black. David Scott is on the more conservative side anyway, and will likely easily prevail in this Clinton 59-38 seat. Safe D

GA-14: Bartow, Cherokee, Rome. This seat combines the areas of the old GA-11 with some of the old GA-14 and is solidly Republican, being Trump 75-21. Graves is retiring, so his successor will likely easily hold on here.

Summarizing:

Safe R: Carter (1), Ferguson (3), Scott (8 ), OPEN (9), OPEN (11), OPEN (14)

Tossup: Hice (10), OPEN (12)

Lean D: OPEN (7)

Likely D: Bishop (2), McBath (6)

Safe D: Johnson (4), Lewis (5), Scott (13)

This map, depending on candidate quality and overall electoral performance could result in 10-4 R, if Bishop's seat trends right further, or could go to 8-6 D, if districts 7, 10, and 12 are replaced by Democrats. But this is just my two cents.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah, more or less. There is still enough strength left in the Black Belt for this decade for both 2 and 12 to be held by Democrats, but at least one will flip red before 2030. When I try to draw maps, I like to create a baseline of safe seats, and then have a few competitive districts so as to maximize potential pathways to a delegation majority. Under this map, there are 5 D-heavy seats (4, 5, 6, 7, and 13), 6 R-heavy seats (1, 3, 8, 9, 11, 14), and 3 tossup seats (2, 10, 12). I think this accounts for the baseline partisan lean of the state (5 vs 6) and creates opportunities to harness trends both leftward (7, 10) and rightward (2, 12).

[voice_of_resistance]

Here's my take on a particularly evil/probably illegal 10-4 gerrymander.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/051f75df-cfe6-4a2c-b1bb-659a1e5c5da9




GA-01: Trump 56-41 (Buddy Carter)
GA-02: Clinton 60-38, 54% BVAP (Sanford Bishop)
GA-03: Trump 63-34 (Drew Ferguson)
GA-04: Clinton 77-23, 57% BVAP (David Scott)
GA-05: Clinton 94-5, 89% BVAP (John Lewis/Hank Johnson)
GA-06: Trump 57-38 (new R incumbent)
GA-07: Clinton 64-32, 52% WVAP, 22% BVAP, 18% HVAP (Lucy McBath)
GA-08: Trump 65-33 (Austin Scott)
GA-09: Trump 58-38 (new R incumbent to succeed Woodall)
GA-10: Trump 70-27 (new R incumbent to succeed Collins)
GA-11: Trump 57-39 (Barry Loudermilk)
GA-12: Trump 59-39 (Rick Allen)
GA-13: Trump 60-38 (Jody Hice)
GA-14: Trump 76-21 (new R incumbent to succeed Tom Graves)

I'm sure I could have been more efficient but this is prob the max ATL black pack one could do.

[voice_of_resistance]

I wanted to use up the Black Belt and keep the 2nd out of Atlanta though.