Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyway, now that 2018 population figures are in DRA, this is what I would consider a "fair" 6-8 GA map. Dens have the 3 black ATL seats, the Gwinnett seat, the VRA SW GA seat, and the white liberal north Fulton seat.

Nice map! A few nitpicks:

-Why not put all of Cherokee County in the Cyan district? Better to keep the Atlanta area together.
-Is it possible to avoid the tri-chop of Atlanta?
-If you give the eastern half of Spaulding to the teal district, and then send the grey district deeper into Columbia County, it better follows metro areas and communities.

For what its worth I think the first suggestion is splendid, as is the third.
The second however would be hard to do, without severely messing up the map elsewhere.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyway, now that 2018 population figures are in DRA, this is what I would consider a "fair" 6-8 GA map. Dens have the 3 black ATL seats, the Gwinnett seat, the VRA SW GA seat, and the white liberal north Fulton seat.

Nice map! A few nitpicks:

-Why not put all of Cherokee County in the Cyan district? Better to keep the Atlanta area together.
-Is it possible to avoid the tri-chop of Atlanta?
-If you give the eastern half of Spaulding to the teal district, and then send the grey district deeper into Columbia County, it better follows metro areas and communities.

Thanks.
1. Easy enough to do.
2. Yes, but I'm not sure it actually produces a better map. I'm undecided if the city limits are a good COI or wedges radiating out from central Atlanta are better.
3. I can fix Columbia County easily enough, but changing Spaulding forces a bunch of new county splits in the NW part of the state.

New map with Atlanta adjustment:


Without Atlanta adjustment:

[voice_of_resistance]

Here's my take on a fair map, prioritizing competitive districts.
http://dra-purple.indirect.cc/join/2591876f-608d-47c7-93b9-8514c62d4b53

By district:

GA-01: Savannah, Coast. Trump 56-41. Essentially unchanged. Safe R with Carter, Likely R with OPEN

GA-02: SW, 44% BVAP. Bishop should survive here, even though this seat is now Clinton 49-49. Likely D with Bishop, Tossup if OPEN

GA-03: western Georgia, Atlanta far exurbs, Trump 67-30. Ferguson will be fine here. Safe R

GA-04: this seat takes in some of Gwinnett, and is Clinton 72-24. Johnson will be fine as his base in Lithonia is in the seat, and its VAP is 40% white, 10% Hispanic, and 43% black. Safe D

GA-05: south Fulton, SW DeKalb. This seat is 67% BVAP, and Lewis will be fine until he dies. Safe D

GA-06: Cobb, this seat gets cleaned up a lot. McBath will be fine, as it is Clinton 49-46. Likely D with McBath, Lean D if OPEN

GA-07: Roswell, Sandy Springs, Alpharetta. Succeeding the old GA-06, this seat is Clinton 51-45. A moderate Republican would do well here, and but it is Clinton +6 and trending leftward, so this seat is Lean D

GA-08: south Georgia, Warner Robins, Valdosta, Waycross. Essentially all the rural red portions of Southern GA. Jim Marshall could have won this 15 years ago, but Austin Scott is untouchable as it is Trump 67-31. Safe R

GA-09: northeast GA, Dalton, Dahlonega, Augusta suburbs. Essentially the GA-09 from the 2000s, and Collins' successor will be safe here as it is Trump 75-22. Safe R

GA-10: Athens, Winder, Conyers, Lawrenceville. This seat is Clinton 49-48. It has counterbalancing trends, from the Atlanta suburbs in the west all the way to Winder and Watkinsville in the east. This seat would be a fair-fight seat, and Jody Hice would be in a competitive race. Tossup

GA-11: Gainesville, Cumming, Jefferson. This seat is the successor to the old GA-07, and takes in the northeastern suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta, including Forsyth/Hall Counties. This seat is Trump 68-28, so it is Safe R.

GA-12: Statesboro, Augusta, Macon, Milledgeville. This seat is essentially an eastern Black Belt seat that should be competitive for a Blue Dog Dem. It is Clinton 49-49, and the trends in the south of the district make it such that only someone like John Barrow would make it competitive. Still, it has a sizeable rural black population and is 42% BVAP. Tossup

GA-13: Forest Park, McDonough, Griffin. This seat takes in the southernmost suburbs and exurbs of Atlanta, and is plurality-black VAP, total population is 52% black. David Scott is on the more conservative side anyway, and will likely easily prevail in this Clinton 59-38 seat. Safe D

GA-14: Bartow, Cherokee, Rome. This seat combines the areas of the old GA-11 with some of the old GA-14 and is solidly Republican, being Trump 75-21. Graves is retiring, so his successor will likely easily hold on here.

Summarizing:

Safe R: Carter (1), Ferguson (3), Scott (8 ), OPEN (9), OPEN (11), OPEN (14)

Tossup: Hice (10), OPEN (12)

Lean D: OPEN (7)

Likely D: Bishop (2), McBath (6)

Safe D: Johnson (4), Lewis (5), Scott (13)

This map, depending on candidate quality and overall electoral performance could result in 10-4 R, if Bishop's seat trends right further, or could go to 8-6 D, if districts 7, 10, and 12 are replaced by Democrats. But this is just my two cents.

[voice_of_resistance]

Yeah, more or less. There is still enough strength left in the Black Belt for this decade for both 2 and 12 to be held by Democrats, but at least one will flip red before 2030. When I try to draw maps, I like to create a baseline of safe seats, and then have a few competitive districts so as to maximize potential pathways to a delegation majority. Under this map, there are 5 D-heavy seats (4, 5, 6, 7, and 13), 6 R-heavy seats (1, 3, 8, 9, 11, 14), and 3 tossup seats (2, 10, 12). I think this accounts for the baseline partisan lean of the state (5 vs 6) and creates opportunities to harness trends both leftward (7, 10) and rightward (2, 12).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, more or less. There is still enough strength left in the Black Belt for this decade for both 2 and 12 to be held by Democrats, but at least one will flip red before 2030. When I try to draw maps, I like to create a baseline of safe seats, and then have a few competitive districts so as to maximize potential pathways to a delegation majority. Under this map, there are 5 D-heavy seats (4, 5, 6, 7, and 13), 6 R-heavy seats (1, 3, 8, 9, 11, 14), and 3 tossup seats (2, 10, 12). I think this accounts for the baseline partisan lean of the state (5 vs 6) and creates opportunities to harness trends both leftward (7, 10) and rightward (2, 12).

I'd like to compliment you on the sheer amount of thought you put into this. Good work.

[Sol]

Anyway, now that 2018 population figures are in DRA, this is what I would consider a "fair" 6-8 GA map. Dens have the 3 black ATL seats, the Gwinnett seat, the VRA SW GA seat, and the white liberal north Fulton seat.

Nice map! A few nitpicks:

-Why not put all of Cherokee County in the Cyan district? Better to keep the Atlanta area together.
-Is it possible to avoid the tri-chop of Atlanta?
-If you give the eastern half of Spaulding to the teal district, and then send the grey district deeper into Columbia County, it better follows metro areas and communities.

Thanks.
1. Easy enough to do.
2. Yes, but I'm not sure it actually produces a better map. I'm undecided if the city limits are a good COI or wedges radiating out from central Atlanta are better.
3. I can fix Columbia County easily enough, but changing Spaulding forces a bunch of new county splits in the NW part of the state.

New map with Atlanta adjustment:


Without Atlanta adjustment:

What about if you put South Atlanta into the district with Cobb and Douglas?

These maps are splendid by the way; my nitpicking is a sign of affection for this lovely map .

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyway, now that 2018 population figures are in DRA, this is what I would consider a "fair" 6-8 GA map. Dens have the 3 black ATL seats, the Gwinnett seat, the VRA SW GA seat, and the white liberal north Fulton seat.

Nice map! A few nitpicks:

-Why not put all of Cherokee County in the Cyan district? Better to keep the Atlanta area together.
-Is it possible to avoid the tri-chop of Atlanta?
-If you give the eastern half of Spaulding to the teal district, and then send the grey district deeper into Columbia County, it better follows metro areas and communities.

Thanks.
1. Easy enough to do.
2. Yes, but I'm not sure it actually produces a better map. I'm undecided if the city limits are a good COI or wedges radiating out from central Atlanta are better.
3. I can fix Columbia County easily enough, but changing Spaulding forces a bunch of new county splits in the NW part of the state.

New map with Atlanta adjustment:


Without Atlanta adjustment:

What about if you put South Atlanta into the district with Cobb and Douglas?

These maps are splendid by the way; my nitpicking is a sign of affection for this lovely map .

It's possible, but it forces a bunch of changes. The Douglass/Cobb district loses it's Cobb portion, which means a new Cobb-only Dem district is created, which forces the nonmetropolitan districts of Northern and Central GA to change their entire orientation. It shifts the map from 6D-8R to 7D-6R-1T, at least at first. Given the way the black belt is going, I wouldn't be surprised if in 2030, this has 6 Dem seats in Atlanta and 8 Dem seats downstate. Anyway, here you go:

[Del Tachi]

I think its only justifiable to chop Atlanta two ways - into (literal) Black and White.  Any more chopping is too much of a dilution of what is the state's clearest COI.  The GOP legislature/governor is obviously not going to favor White Atlanta being chopped-off to join any of the suburb-based districts, so Atlanta probably stays (at least nearly) whole.  9-5 is the "fairest" map I could see the GOP acquiescing to (3 ATL districts, 1 VRA district in SWGA, 1 Gwinnett-based majority-minority district).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has anyone tried state legislative maps based off of the 2018 population data?

[Del Tachi]

Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.

That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

[Adam Griffin]

For what it's worth, it's completely possible to draw a broader metro set of districts under 2018 population estimates that include:

• 3 VRA districts
• A (very meaningfully VAP) majority-white ATL district
• Another majority-white (VAP) district
• 2 GOP-leaning districts

The lines are by no means clean and neat, but that's never been a real issue in Georgia redistricting anyway. By default, this would produce a 8-6 map (though the 2 GOP-leaning districts' fates throughout the decade would always be in question).

CD	White %	Black %	Other %	Margin
1	59	19	22	Clinton +30
2	43	17	40	Trump +5
3	61	21	18	Trump +9
4	49	33	18	Clinton +5
5	40	53	7	Clinton +15
6	31	57	12	Clinton +35
7	27	65	8	Clinton +48

At this point, drawing a "fair" 7-7 is child's play when factoring in Bishop's district plus the ease of drawing an Augusta-Savannah district to boot (which can neatly be done under '18 population, with a Clinton win of 6-9 points).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71a9a4dc-bc35-45b2-92b7-a688debd827b
I made a State Senate map based off of the 2018 estimates.

[Adam Griffin]

CVAP is also another consideration: there seems to be some debate (at least historically) on whether to use VAP or CVAP, but if CVAP is the litmus test, it's potentially possible to draw 4 majority-black CVAP districts in the Atlanta metro now.

Based on 2018 raw population estimates, these districts (1-4) are 53%, 56%, 45% and 54% black, respectively.

Given that CD-3's combined Latino/Asian population is around 30%, it's almost certain that it's majority-black CVAP as well (~51-52%).

[EastAnglianLefty]

Has anyone tried state legislative maps based off of the 2018 population data?

I've got one that's 85% complete based off 2016 population data, which tries to account a little bit for areas that are shrinking/growing. Will try to finish it off and tweak it for 2010 data later this week.

[Brittain33]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71a9a4dc-bc35-45b2-92b7-a688debd827b
I made a State Senate map based off of the 2018 estimates.

How many districts migrate to the Atlanta area from the rest of the state?

[Oryxslayer]

I tried a fair map that of course would not happen in 2021. Unlike the maps posted previously, I tend to prefer COI style maps when fair, rather than swing/competitive maps.  

When following these guidelines, you can only keep 3 of (majority) Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, and Gwinett whole - one has to be cut or else the northern and southern districts will get weird. So I tried something different, in Gwinett, rather than do the Cobb+Douglas with a cut Cobb seat. These guidelines also encourage making the Belt AA seat performing via the full Belt COI. 4 AA majority seats and the three non-AA seats in Atlanta are diverse and mixed.




GA01: 54/43 Trump, R+6.7
GA02: 55.5/42.5 Clinton, D+6.4
GA03: 68/29 Trump, R+20.7
GA04: 74/23 Clinton, D+22
GA05: 80/16.5 Clinton, D+29.2
GA06: 51/44.5 Trump, R+9.5
GA07: 52/45 Clinton, R+0.7
GA08: 69/29 Trump R+19.6
GA09: 73/23 Trump, R+29.8
GA10: 49/46.5 Clinton, R+3.8
GA11: 69/28 Trump, R+22.1
GA12: 55/43 Trump, R+6.9
GA13: 65/32.5  Clinton D+14.2
GA14: 74.5/22.5 trump, R+26.95

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71a9a4dc-bc35-45b2-92b7-a688debd827b
I made a State Senate map based off of the 2018 estimates.

How many districts migrate to the Atlanta area from the rest of the state?

Defining the metro as the Atlanta county cluster as delineated in the stickied thread in this very same subforum, I would say they have 26 currently and under my map they have...29.

[EastAnglianLefty]

This is what I came up with for the State Senate: https://davesredistricting.org/join/5042f2bd-9a85-4fc5-ad28-f2c91d971eea

I assumed a Republican map, which aims to protect their current legislators and give each of them a district to run in. It helps that they lost seats in Atlanta in 2018 and that there are a couple of vacant seats downstate, though you might need uglier lines if their replacements live in inconvenient places.

Broadly speaking, my aim was to try to lock in a majority until 2030, even if Georgia becomes a lean D seat. I wanted to keep cleanish lines outstate but was willing to get moderately aggressive in the Atlanta metro, because a baconmander is much more noticeable on a statewide map than in an urban inset.

Trump got over 60% in 24 seats and got over 55% in 5 seats outside the Atlanta area, where we can presume there won't be a strong trend. That's enough to lock in a majority.

In addition, Republicans hold six seats (17, 21, 32, 37, 45, 56) centred within the core of the Atlanta metro, which for these purposes I'm defining as Cobb, Fulton, Douglas, Clayton, Henry, Newtown, Rockdale, De Kalb and Gwinnett. (Obviously this isn't the accepted definition, but outside these areas their seats are under no threat.) In five of them Trump got between 56 and 60% and in the remaining district he won 53-42. There's also one vaguely competitive Clinton district - district 6, which she won 50-45.

All of these seats have strong Democratic trends, because it's Atlanta, but all of them should hold out for at least a couple of cycles and at least some of them ought to survive until 2030.

In addition, I sought to draw Democratic districts that would elect minority senators, in an echo of the way Texas Republicans have traditionally sought to eliminate Anglo Democrats to avoid creating opportunities for candidates with statewide potential. All existing black majority districts are preserved (and in fact one of the more difficult challenges was keeping them all below 70% black, as that looks to be the limit they used in 2010 avoid allegations of packing) and additionally the 42nd district is made majority black. The Democratic primary in the 33rd district is probably majority-black, the 5th district moves closer to becoming a performing Hispanic VRA district and the 48th district (which has almost no cross-over with the current district) is anybody's guess. However, the 6th and 40th remain likely to elect white Democrats.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, here is a map that I came up with that can basically be summed up as "How agressive can Republicans get?"

This map starts from the following 2 assumptions:

-1: You still only need 3 VRA districts in the Atlanta area
-2: The black rural southwest district can be cut

Granted I think these assumptions, in particular number 2; are very unlikely, and probably wouldn't happen with a map like this because GA-02 is cut by clearly gerrymandering with ugly districts; and a similar thing, but to a lesser extent happens in the Atlanta area I believe, though the cuts there are probably easier to justify.

Still, it proves to me that the map the Republicans will actually draw is probably going to be 9-5 at best for Dems; possibly even 10-4.



CD-1: Clinton+21; D+8; 53% black
CD-2: Clinton+59; D+27; 52% black
CD-3: Clinton+63; D+28; 52% black
CD-4: Trump+17; R+10
CD-5: Trump+19; R+12
CD-6: Trump+18; R+14
CD-7: Trump+18; R+15
CD-8: Trump+59; R+31
CD-9: Trump+19; R+14
CD-10: Trump+16; R+9
CD-11: Trump+13; R+7
CD-12: Trump+14; R+7
CD-13: Trump+15; R+8
CD-14: Trump+11; R+6

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9163601d-d5b7-47b8-a5bd-4a4261040e26

[lfromnj]

Anyway 11-3,

Did forget a precint in Cobb but thats because the precints there are super ugly so it got stuck in somewhere else.
All 3 black Atlanta VRA districts are under 60% black but also all around 80% clinton, All Atlanta area districts are 61% or More for Trump(which means Trump +27) besides the yellow one which is Trump +23 so might fall by 2030.

All 4 Southside are Double Digit Trump so basically Safe R for all of them, maybe Bishop survives 2022 if its a Trump midterm as the Albany based district is only Trump +10 but its still very unlikely.

Zoom in of Atlanta.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a8ade60b-e6b9-4ef8-b92c-a9669009951e
GA state house map
there are 77 Clinton districts out of 180.
I tried to avoid crossing county lines when possible.

[Adam Griffin]

Got bored, so I wanted to make a map that maximized Democratic House seats without creating either an overly-risky situation or one that blatantly would violate the VRA.

I also had an impulse to expand the existing ATL majority-black districts as far out into rural areas as possible, which is why their Democratic vote share more closely resembles their black vote share; obviously the GOP's "enforcement" of the VRA whereupon they aim to create 55% black districts that vote 80% Democratic is pure gerrymandering. It has the side-effects of avoiding that common, unsightly L-shaped CD that forms in between ATL & Macon/Columbus (or further south - CD 4 here doesn't look anywhere nearly as bad by comparison); also, being rep'd by Democrats makes voters less hostile to them over time.

Additionally, creating the oft-overlooked opportunity for a compact, majority-white Augusta-Savannah CD featured into the plans (one that can easily be made >Clinton +5 without this map specifically that forgoes everything north of Augusta while including all of Chatham & Liberty).

While this map might trigger a VRA lawsuit - it creates 5 black-majority CDs based on 2018 population, but 3 of them are 51-52% black (meaning they're probably 49-50% BVAP) - it basically hands Democrats 7-8 seats depending on the climate, with the likely prospect of a 9th seat later in the decade.

CD	BLK %	WHT %	OTH %	'16 P MAR	'16 S MAR	Specs
1	29	53	18	Clinton +1.5	Isakson +12	Cobb
2	51	41	8	Clinton +17	Barksdale +9	VRA
3	10	77	13	Trump +53	Barksdale +54
4	52	36	12	Clinton +17	Barksdale +10	VRA
5	51	43	6	Clinton +13	Barksdale +7	VRA
6	55	34	11	Clinton +60	Barksdale +46	VRA
7	24	38	38	Clinton +20	Barksdale +5	Maj-Min; Gwinnett
8	17	58	25	Trump +7	Isakson +25	Future R-to-D
9	14	70	16	Trump +39	Isakson +43
10	5	81	14	Trump +54	Isakson +58
11	42	50	8	Clinton +2	Isakson +7	Swing District Trending D
12	28	63	9	Trump +31	Isakson +38
13	51	41	8	Clinton +11	Barksdale +2	VRA
14	31	60	9	Trump +36	Isakson +40

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/davesredist/status/1255310071522869248

2018 GA.

Also good to check the 97% rural white vote.

[Del Tachi]

Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.

That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is a Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.