GA-SEN SurveyUSA: Purdue 40, Generic D 37

[OneJ]

Purdue - 40
Generic Democrat - 37
Third-Party - 1%
Need to know opponent - 14%
Not Sure - 8%

Link

[Sir Mohamed]

Tossup/tilt R.

Perdue can definitely lose and having him at just 40% as an incumbent isn't too promising for the GOP. For now, I think he has a slight edge, but GA is more likely to flip than ME with Collins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is gonna be a run-off in either GA seats. If the GOP cant get to 50%

[MT Treasurer]

Tossup, and not a particularly good poll for Perdue.

[SnowLabrador]

Tossup, and not a particularly good poll for Perdue.

It's pretty clearly Likely R, since Tomlinson is raising very little money. Also, did you see her most recent ad?

[DrScholl]

Georgia will flip. That's all that needs to be said and it will flip in part because Republicans aren't going to take the race seriously because they believe Georgia is as safe as Wyoming.

[Pollster]

This poll is atrocious for Perdue, loads of bad signs for him:

He's already consolidated the Republican base whereas "Democratic opponent" still has 15-20% of the Democratic base to fall in line.

A combined 47% of independents say they "need to know opponent" or are "not sure" - essentially both meaning undecided.

Moderates are overwhelmingly against him.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Tossup, and not a particularly good poll for Perdue.

It's pretty clearly Likely R, since Tomlinson is raising very little money. Also, did you see her most recent ad?

Tomlinson's fundraising is a genuine cause for concern, but that recent ad was a digital-only piece of puff that's not to be taken seriously--just a quick online joke at Purdue's expense.  Not every release has to be a Michael Bay production. 

[Frenchrepublican]

This poll is atrocious for Perdue, loads of bad signs for him:

He's already consolidated the Republican base whereas "Democratic opponent" still has 15-20% of the Democratic base to fall in line.

A combined 47% of independents say they "need to know opponent" or are "not sure" - essentially both meaning undecided.

Moderates are overwhelmingly against him.

This poll is not atrocious for him.
-this poll is clearly oversampling democrats because no, in the reality the GA electorate is not D+1, far from it. Even in 2018 the GA electorate was still R+4
-this poll has Biden winning by 4, which is almost impossible considering how hard it is for democrats to crack their statewide ceiling of 48%

[Rookie Yinzer]

This poll is not atrocious for him.
-this poll is clearly oversampling democrats because no, in the reality the GA electorate is not D+1, far from it. Even in 2018 the GA electorate was still R+4
-this poll has Biden winning by 4, which is almost impossible considering how hard it is for democrats to crack their statewide ceiling of 48%

The 2016 electorate was R+2. It's obvious college ed white people are jumping ship and identifying as independents pushing D's slightly past R's.

I remember when yall said Ds couldn't crack that 45/46 percent ceiling and then Stacey Abrams (who y'all said was going to be trounced) got 49% and uninspiring candidates like John Barrow and Lindy Miller got 48 percent in a low turnout runoff.

David Perdue is not going to cakewalk to a second term and the only thing saving his sorry ass is the runoff system.

[Frenchrepublican]

This poll is not atrocious for him.
-this poll is clearly oversampling democrats because no, in the reality the GA electorate is not D+1, far from it. Even in 2018 the GA electorate was still R+4
-this poll has Biden winning by 4, which is almost impossible considering how hard it is for democrats to crack their statewide ceiling of 48%

The 2016 electorate was R+2. It's obvious college ed white people are jumping ship and identifying as independents pushing D's slightly past R's.

I remember when yall said Ds couldn't crack that 45/46 percent ceiling and then Stacey Abrams (who y'all said was going to be trounced) got 49% and uninspiring candidates like John Barrow and Lindy Miller got 48 percent in a low turnout runoff.

David Perdue is not going to cakewalk to a second term and the only thing saving his sorry ass is the runoff system.

We have already talked about this issue, I already know that you believe that GA will vote D at the presidential level in 2020 and will elect two democratic senators, as I have explained it to you, GA is clearly trending D but the state is probably still not winnable before 2025. We will have to agree to disagree.

Concerning the GA electorate, I would bet my watch that the electorate won’t be D+1 next year, here are the 2018 numbers : https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the 6th seat Dems are looking at: AZ, CO, GA, KS, KY and NC. Ernst, Collins and SMC can withstand the wave

[skbl17]

I had a very long-winded rant about my opinion of the "analysis" of this race so far, but all I'll say is this:

1) SurveyUSA is actually really good at Georgia polling. It's far from Zogby or uga. They had the 2016 presidential (Trump 49-HRC 42) and gubernatorial (Kemp 47-Abrams 45 times two) results almost bang on in terms of margin for the latter and only slightly off for the former. That's not to say that they will be right in this race, but to automatically dismiss them is foolish.

2) An incumbent polling in the low 40s (or at 40, in this case) is a not good position to be in, regardless of the "quality" of the opponents. Doesn't mean you will lose, just that it's a big red flag.

3) I'm still seeing people push the tired trope that the Dems' ceiling is [insert some 40ish number here]. Remember when the ceiling was 43%, then 44%, then 45%, then 47%, then 48%? Can't wait for us to be sitting here in 2022 and still hear this: "Dems won't beat Kemp! Their ceiling is 49.5%!"

4) Unlike Susan Collins, who had built up a decent moderate record, Perdue's approval ratings are only where they are because he keeps his head down. He's just as fiercely partisan as Graham/Cruz/McConnell, but he stays out of sight; he's not like Isakson, who has decent street cred among moderates and some Dems in this state (yes, Isakson got Dem endorsements in 2016). Part of the challenge for Dems will be getting Perdue's record out in the open and tying him to Trump.

Also a note on approvals: it's November 2019. Some of the 2018 losers had strong approval ratings a year out from their elections, too. Nothing is set in stone.

I still think Perdue is slightly favored despite all that, so I'm leaving this race at Lean R. I'll have to see how this race develops.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a runoff if Perdue doesn't achieve 50, anyways

[2016]

Perdue ain't do to lose to Theresa Tomlinson and that same applies to the other Senate Seat if Kemp appoints Rep. Doug Collins. He isn't going to lose to Jon Ossoff. Pipe Dream for Dems here.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Concerning the GA electorate, I would bet my watch that the electorate won’t be D+1 next year, here are the 2018 numbers : https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

I've stated a million times that the 2018 electorate was more GOP than 2016 which makes Abrams and the downballot Dems performance all the more impressive. I don't know what you're trying to prove. LOL. Presidentials naturally draw out more non-white and younger voters. I don't know why you'll think the 2020 electorate will be more favorable for Perdue.

[DrScholl]

Democrats are 55k votes away from winning statewide. That can be achieved almost by new registrations alone. Perdue doesn't even have enough of a brand to be as formidable as some people seem to think he is. You have a freshman Senator with no real profile up for re-election in a state that is slipping away from his party.

[ON Progressive]

This poll is atrocious for Perdue, loads of bad signs for him:

He's already consolidated the Republican base whereas "Democratic opponent" still has 15-20% of the Democratic base to fall in line.

A combined 47% of independents say they "need to know opponent" or are "not sure" - essentially both meaning undecided.

Moderates are overwhelmingly against him.

This poll is not atrocious for him.
-this poll is clearly oversampling democrats because no, in the reality the GA electorate is not D+1, far from it. Even in 2018 the GA electorate was still R+4
-this poll has Biden winning by 4, which is almost impossible considering how hard it is for democrats to crack their statewide ceiling of 48%

Why are you using party ID to unskew polls? Romney 2012 supporters tried this and it failed miserably because party ID is a fluid thing.

[2016]

Democrats are 55k votes away from winning statewide. That can be achieved almost by new registrations alone. Perdue doesn't even have enough of a brand to be as formidable as some people seem to think he is. You have a freshman Senator with no real profile up for re-election in a state that is slipping away from his party.

Tomlinson & Ossoff do not have the same appeal to Voters that Stacey Abrams or Michelle Nunn had in 2018 and 2014. Simple is that!

And by the way I do expect a lot of Split Ticket Voting in States with competitive Senate Races. American Voters might throw out Trump BUT they might also want to have a check on the new Democratic President if that person wins (whomever his Name is)

History is against Democrats winning the Presidency and the Senate. The last three times the Upper Chamber flipped was in a MidTerm (1994, 2006, 2014). The Alabama Senate Race looms large over any Democratic Senate Control.

[DrScholl]

Democrats are 55k votes away from winning statewide. That can be achieved almost by new registrations alone. Perdue doesn't even have enough of a brand to be as formidable as some people seem to think he is. You have a freshman Senator with no real profile up for re-election in a state that is slipping away from his party.

Tomlinson & Ossoff do not have the same appeal to Voters that Stacey Abrams or Michelle Nunn had in 2018 and 2014. Simple is that!

And by the way I do expect a lot of Split Ticket Voting in States with competitive Senate Races. American Voters might throw out Trump BUT they might also want to have a check on the new Democratic President if that person wins (whomever his Name is)

History is against Democrats winning the Presidency and the Senate. The last three times the Upper Chamber flipped was in a MidTerm (1994, 2006, 2014). The Alabama Senate Race looms large over any Democratic Senate Control.

All of the other statewide races in 2018 were decided by single digits, not just the Governor's race. Agriculture Commissioner of all races as decided by only 6% and that tends to be one of the best statewide races for Republicans in states that have the office.

History is never a good indicator of what will happen in future elections, because each cycle is different.

[2016]

This poll is atrocious for Perdue, loads of bad signs for him:

He's already consolidated the Republican base whereas "Democratic opponent" still has 15-20% of the Democratic base to fall in line.

A combined 47% of independents say they "need to know opponent" or are "not sure" - essentially both meaning undecided.

Moderates are overwhelmingly against him.

This poll is not atrocious for him.
-this poll is clearly oversampling democrats because no, in the reality the GA electorate is not D+1, far from it. Even in 2018 the GA electorate was still R+4
-this poll has Biden winning by 4, which is almost impossible considering how hard it is for democrats to crack their statewide ceiling of 48%

Why are you using party ID to unskew polls? Romney 2012 supporters tried this and it failed miserably because party ID is a fluid thing.

LOL, Democrats tried to do the same thing with Andrew Gillum & Bill Nelson in Florida in 2018. I consistently rallied against the notion that there would be a D-Favorable Electorate in FL and I in the end was proven to be right because there never was in FL States History a D-Electorate in a MidTerm.

I literally had to laugh off Polls showing D+3 Electorate like NBC/Marist and CNN & their cohorts from SSRS did. Speaking of NBC/Marist, their collaboration seems to have ended after 2018 cuz they have gone completely into hiding after that Polling Fiasco from them.

You might need to revisit this Thread here which I created after the MidTerms:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=307266.0

NBC/Marist was the biggest Trash State Pollster in 2018.

[MT Treasurer]

This poll is atrocious for Perdue, loads of bad signs for him:

He's already consolidated the Republican base whereas "Democratic opponent" still has 15-20% of the Democratic base to fall in line.

A combined 47% of independents say they "need to know opponent" or are "not sure" - essentially both meaning undecided.

Moderates are overwhelmingly against him.

This poll is not atrocious for him.
-this poll is clearly oversampling democrats because no, in the reality the GA electorate is not D+1, far from it. Even in 2018 the GA electorate was still R+4
-this poll has Biden winning by 4, which is almost impossible considering how hard it is for democrats to crack their statewide ceiling of 48%

Why are you using party ID to unskew polls? Romney 2012 supporters tried this and it failed miserably because party ID is a fluid thing.

As someone who was registered on this forum in 2015, there’s really no difference between the "PA is Lean D/Likely D/Safe D/fool's gold for Republicans in 2016" crowd and the "GA is Likely R/fool's gold for Democrats in 2020/2022/2024/etc." posters at this point. The arrogance and overconfidence here (not just evidenced by the constant unskewing but also by the assumption that 48% is the new Democratic "ceiling" in GA) is pretty astounding.

[Adam Griffin]

It's not uncommon for GA GOP incumbents early in the cycle to be in the low-to-mid 40s in polling; Georgia voters just don't pay much attention early on and a disproportionate share will indicate their opinion/preference of officeholders as "undecided", "neutral", "N/A", etc until the race actually heats up (even if you could predict with damn near absolute accuracy how they're going to vote).

The margin is a better indicator, and probably about where the race would stand if held today (Perdue +3), if not a bit more in his favor. I'm still somewhat skeptical that Perdue-Deal-Abrams voters are going to unilaterally abandon Perdue in 2020. Combined with the fact that I think 2018 was a bit like 2008 (where GA lurched forward demographically and Democratically in one fell swoop, only for it to take several cycles to produce such favorable margins once again) given the fact that the electorate was basically a presidential one at its core, I can still see Perdue outperforming Kemp unless the national electorate ends up being like >150 million voters.

[pppolitics]

Georgia is the second most inelastic state in the nation.

At the end of the day, it will come down to turnout.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Interesting prediction. Purdue was able to put up 40 against Maryland but recently hasn't done so well against several other "generic" defenses (Northwestern, Nebraska, Illinois). Too bad that Sindelar got hurt - not seeing very much explosiveness or even cohesion from Plummer. I think it's unlikely to see them in such a high scoring game, or at least not winning in one. Thinking they'll definitely lose to Wisconsin this week and likely to lose the Old Oaken Bucket against a resurgent Indiana(!)