WI-Marquette: Trump in the lead

[Annatar]

Would be hilarious if there was a total acceleration in trends in 2020 with Trump carrying states like WI, MN and MI but losing AZ and maybe even GA.

[Annatar]

This poll is likely accurate insofar as it conforms to the 2018 results. The last Marquette poll before the midterms had trump approval at 47%, the exit polls had him at 48% and Scott Walker got 48.4% of the vote because all the trump approvers voted for him. This poll basically confirms trump’s approval in Wisconsin is where it was in the midterms and Trump will get around 48-49% of the vote were the election held today.

[Annatar]

Would be hilarious if there was a total acceleration in trends in 2020 with Trump carrying states like WI, MN and MI but losing AZ and maybe even GA.

MN is more similar to CO than WI/MI.

There’s been a discussion on this in another thread but MN is nothing like CO, it if was it wouldn’t have swung 6.1% towards trump in 2016 like the rest of the Midwest but unlike Colorado and trump’s approval wouldn’t have been 46% in the 2018 exit polls in MN.

[Annatar]

Interesting to look at the candidates by favourability in this poll, they even asked about Obama and Romney

Trump 46/50
Biden 39/48
Warren 29/46
Sanders 36/54

Obama 54/41
Romney 28/44

The numbers are worse for Biden than I thought they would be, the numbers are about as bad for Sanders and Warren as expected. Not surprisingly Obama is above water. 

Harry Enten has said this sample is more favourable for Trump than the previous poll but the sample in their October poll was 31R/29D/30I or a R+2 sample, the sample in their current poll is 28R/28D/40I so its 2% less Republican and in all other areas like education, age and income its identical.

[Annatar]

If Trump, Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Romney are all unpopular, then who the hell do the voters want exactly?

Obama clearly, Obama is who voters in WI like.

I thought it might be interesting to compare Romney's numbers in their Jan 2012 poll to where the dems are, we are in a similar point in the cycle, Romney's fav/unfav in their Jan 2012 poll was 30/42, so worse then were Biden is but better than Sanders or Warren.

Also, Obama's numbers in this poll, 54/41 are basically the same as the last pre 2016 election poll Marquette did where he was at 54/43 among RV's.

In that last poll, Clinton net fav was -8, 44/52, similar to Biden's net fav today and Trump's were -29, 33/62.