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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  WI-Marquette: Trump in the lead
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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Trump in the lead  (Read 3752 times)
Skye
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« on: November 20, 2019, 01:39:20 pm »


Trump 47
Biden 44

Trump 48
Sanders 45

Trump 48
Warrn 43

Trump 47
Buttigieg 39

w/half the sample (because Huh)

Trump 50
Klobuchar 36

Booker 45
Trump 44

So far results are posted on their Twitter. Will update once they release the full poll.

Note that Trump is up from their previous polls.

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n1240
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2019, 01:41:13 pm »

Also Klobuchar-14 and Booker+1 among non top 4, odd
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Unpolled Amash Voter for Trump
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2019, 01:42:17 pm »

Booker is the only candidate that can win Wisconsin and Utah.

He needs to be anointed as the nominee
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Laki
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2019, 01:42:44 pm »

Shows that Wisconsin will be competitive as expected. After a lot of D polls that showed that Dems was up by a lot, this counterbalances everything. Trump is around 47 so that's a good number, but Wisconsin will be highly competitive.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2019, 01:43:12 pm »

Here's your poblem.

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2016
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« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2019, 01:49:05 pm »

IF Trump wins Wisconsin he is reelected. Simple is that!

Trump can lose MI & PA which he probably will.

However if he keeps Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and those 2 Districts in Nebraska & Maine he gets 270 Electoral Votes to 268 Electoral Votes.
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marty
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« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2019, 01:52:40 pm »

Bad sample

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Laki
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« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2019, 01:55:09 pm »

IF Trump wins Wisconsin he is reelected. Simple is that!

Trump can lose MI & PA which he probably will.

However if he keeps Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and those 2 Districts in Nebraska & Maine he gets 270 Electoral Votes to 268 Electoral Votes.

That's not true. It's not guaranteed if he wins Wisconsin, that he'll keep NC, GA, FL, AZ and the district in Nebraska. He'll likely keep at least Ohio and Iowa if he wins Wisconsin. But i can make plenty of maps where Trump loses while winning Wisconsin. And it's not out of the question he wins at least two of them back again, or all three. You're making wrong conclusions and even than he is not safe. Although if he wins all three of them, he'll likely win the other states too, except for maybe AZ. FL seems guaranteed if he wins two of the three rust belt states.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2019, 01:57:16 pm »

IF Trump wins Wisconsin he is reelected. Simple is that!

Trump can lose MI & PA which he probably will.

However if he keeps Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and those 2 Districts in Nebraska & Maine he gets 270 Electoral Votes to 268 Electoral Votes.

Not if he loses Arizona which is quite possible.
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Skunk
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« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2019, 01:58:01 pm »

W I S S I S S I P P I
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2019, 01:58:07 pm »

That's it boys. Democrats must abandon impeachment and apologize to Trump if they want to win over these WWC voters hanging out at Winnebago county's diners.
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Georgia Democrat in 2020
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« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2019, 02:01:00 pm »

Wisconsin will be the toughest of the Rust Belt trifecta to hold.  And I just don't see the Democrats taking Arizona (or Georgia or Florida) in 2020 to make it up.

I can see Trump giving up on Pennsylvania and Michigan and place all of its resources in Wisconsin to cross the 270 mark.  It will be the mother of all battles.

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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2019, 02:05:38 pm »

Very normal to ask half the sample a ballot test question, and perfectly methodologically sound as long as both halves of the sample have been controlled for gender, age, race, etc.

Also, do keep in mind that the Trump campaign has been dumping millions of dollars of online ads on the state of Wisconsin for weeks (months?) now. This is the state that they've chosen to give themselves a head start in.
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Governor R2D2 (Biden/Harris 2020 Edition)
20RP12
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« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2019, 02:06:50 pm »

Junk.
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Scott🦋
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« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2019, 02:12:29 pm »

This election was never going to be a cakewalk and Wisconsin is going to be extremely close either way.  Let's not nominate cucks.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: November 20, 2019, 02:14:00 pm »

Marquette has seemed to show a lot of movement (hard to see Democrats going from up several points to down several points in just a month or so), but obviously Wisconsin is going to be very competitive. I just don't buy that MI/PA won't be, or that they'll vote 5+ points to the left of WI.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #16 on: November 20, 2019, 02:27:01 pm »

No
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538Electoral
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« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2019, 02:30:23 pm »

I think Trump wins WI in 2020.
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2016
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« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2019, 02:31:58 pm »

IF Trump wins Wisconsin he is reelected. Simple is that!

Trump can lose MI & PA which he probably will.

However if he keeps Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and those 2 Districts in Nebraska & Maine he gets 270 Electoral Votes to 268 Electoral Votes.

Not if he loses Arizona which is quite possible.

I don't think he'll lose Arizona. Let get this straight: The Main Reason Democrats got so close there in 2016 was Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio which drove up Democratic Turnout. Democrats won't have that benefit in 2020.

Also, if you look at the Democratic Presidential Field, they are all to the left of Democratic Senator Kysten Sinema. Sinema won because she campaigned as a Centrist in 2018. The NY Times even reported a couple of weeks ago that Sinema would likely vote against Trumps Removal from Office should the Impeachment reach the Senate together with Manchin.
Impeachment will hurt Democrats biggly in 2020.

And finally Trump won in 2016 getting only 46,2 % of the Popular Vote. A new Gallup Poll pegged his JA at 43%.

Mark my words: If Trump has a JA over 45% he can still win the Election because the Country has become so polarized.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2019, 02:33:07 pm »



Of course you do, but the Dems are still divided in the primary and DNC Convention is in WI, they arent losing WI
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538Electoral
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« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2019, 02:35:48 pm »



Of course you do, but the Dems are still divided in the primary and DNC Convention is in WI, they arent losing WI

We saw how having the DNC in PA worked out for them in 2016 and what does a divided primary have anything to do with the general election?
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2016
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« Reply #21 on: November 20, 2019, 02:37:30 pm »



Of course you do, but the Dems are still divided in the primary and DNC Convention is in WI, they arent losing WI
LOL,
Democrats had the DNC Convention in Philly in 2016 and Charlotte in 2012 YET they still lost both States in the Presidential Election.
Republican had the RNC Convention in Minneapolis in 2008 and Tampa in 2012 YET they lost both States.

Having a Convention in these States means absolutely nothing.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2019, 02:37:35 pm »

Hear me now, quote me later, if Wisconsin has Trump leading, then Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania are not that different. This poll may be an outlier and has some weird numbers, but Wisconsin is not an outlier in that group of states.
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2016
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« Reply #23 on: November 20, 2019, 02:39:40 pm »

Hear me now, quote me later, if Wisconsin has Trump leading, then Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania are not that different. This poll may be an outlier and has some weird numbers, but Wisconsin is not an outlier in that group of states.

The huge Polarization in Country is the Main Reason Trump still has a very decent shot at Re-Election.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #24 on: November 20, 2019, 02:45:56 pm »

Hear me now, quote me later, if Wisconsin has Trump leading, then Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania are not that different. This poll may be an outlier and has some weird numbers, but Wisconsin is not an outlier in that group of states.

Yeah. I know it won't happen but if Trump won Wisconsin by 14, It would be a complete and total WIPEOUT.
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