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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  GA-Climate Nexus: Biden +1, Warren tied, Sanders -2, Harris -5, Buttigieg -7
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Author Topic: GA-Climate Nexus: Biden +1, Warren tied, Sanders -2, Harris -5, Buttigieg -7  (Read 1027 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: November 19, 2019, 12:08:20 pm »

Georgia: Climate Nexus, Nov. 4-10, 688 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 40

Biden 48, Trump 47
Warren 47, Trump 47
Trump 48, Sanders 46
Trump 49, Harris 44
Trump 49, Buttigieg 42

Biden 31
Sanders 14
Warren 14
Harris 4
Buttigieg 4
Yang 2
Booker 2
Williamson 2
Others 1 or less
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2019, 12:43:03 pm »

#GANotCompetitive
#WarrenBadFitForGA
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2019, 01:28:35 pm »

Warren and Sanders haven't opened any offices in GA, all of the Black officials in Atlanta endorsed Biden. This is why Warren doesnt have a back up plan if she loses NV, as polls indicate
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Pollster
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« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2019, 01:52:57 pm »

Education looks much better here, poll appears to be incredibly sound. Encouraging for Democrats, but a reminder that this state will require a lot of effort. Worth it, though, due to the high number of electoral votes and two Senate seats.
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Pack the Court & Lock Him Up
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2019, 01:53:58 pm »

This seems more realistic compared to those other recent polls.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2019, 01:58:56 pm »

Looks about accurate. I'd say Georgia is tilt Republican with Biden and lean with all others. Joe Biden is definitely competitive here due to strong support from African Americans and the suburbs.
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Daines' Bipartisan Bills™
IndyRep
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« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2019, 02:17:09 pm »

GA is a Tossup and not less competitive than NC, whether people like it or not.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2019, 04:22:57 pm »

Considering that Trump had a positive approval rate in GA last year according to exit polls, it's hard to see how he is it underwater now.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2019, 04:42:06 pm »

Considering that Trump had a positive approval rate in GA last year according to exit polls, it's hard to see how he is it underwater now.

No, it isn't.  Things can change quite a bit in a whole year.  Trump continues to turn off suburban voters, while it's doubtful that he's gaining enough elsewhere to make up for those losses. 
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2019, 05:19:41 pm »

A certain telephone call is enough to push approvals underwater. Exit polls a year old are quite out of date. This is the third poll we've seen indicating that Trump is having a problem in Georgia.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2019, 06:49:13 pm »

Considering that Trump had a positive approval rate in GA last year according to exit polls, it's hard to see how he is it underwater now.

No, it isn't.  Things can change quite a bit in a whole year.  Trump continues to turn off suburban voters, while it's doubtful that he's gaining enough elsewhere to make up for those losses. 

He isn't really "turning them off." They're just idiotic dimwits who are manipulated like string puppets by the media.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2019, 11:51:02 pm »

Considering that Trump had a positive approval rate in GA last year according to exit polls, it's hard to see how he is it underwater now.

No, it isn't.  Things can change quite a bit in a whole year.  Trump continues to turn off suburban voters, while it's doubtful that he's gaining enough elsewhere to make up for those losses. 

He isn't really "turning them off." They're just idiotic dimwits who are manipulated like string puppets by the media.

There actually is no evidence that Trump is more unpopular in the suburbs relative to 2016. Arguably he can do better in 2020 relative to 2016 in many of those areas.

In 2018 many of the districts that flipped were ones that Hillary won! The ones that Trump won that flipped were arguably more so due to incumbents being lazy, differential turnout, that kind of thing - not that >50% in those districts now will plan to vote against Trump. For instance OK-05, SC-01, NY-19, NY-22, NM-02, and others should still vote for Trump in 2020.

"Suburbs are abandoning Trump" is a meme. The reality is more along the lines of "areas that Romney won, which Hillary later won, are going to be troublesome for Trump in 2020" -> but note that Trump can still do better in some of those areas than he did in 2016!
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