2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[ottermax]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's ext to no crossover voting here

Bizarrely enough, Joseph Cao won the New Orleans based district in 2008 - but that was a really peculiar election, and he lost in 2010.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's ext to no crossover voting here

Bizarrely enough, Joseph Cao won the New Orleans based district in 2008 - but that was a really peculiar election, and he lost in 2010.

Yeah and he won a special not a presidential election.

[ottermax]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's ext to no crossover voting here

Bizarrely enough, Joseph Cao won the New Orleans based district in 2008 - but that was a really peculiar election, and he lost in 2010.

Yeah and he won a special not a presidential election.

It was a general election - as general as Louisiana elections are given the runoff system.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So the chance SC is gonna get a second congressional district have gone up exponentially. At this point I think even in NC republicans are only going to gain one seat. RIP Jeff Jackson.

[Roll Roons]

So the chance SC is gonna get a second congressional district have gone up exponentially. At this point I think even in NC republicans are only going to gain one seat. RIP Jeff Jackson.

Jackson clearly has his eyes on the Senate. He probably runs for AG so he can run against Budd in 2028.

[Oryxslayer]

So the chance SC is gonna get a second congressional district have gone up exponentially. At this point I think even in NC republicans are only going to gain one seat. RIP Jeff Jackson.

Reminder that congressionally the SC case - as well as the AR, and secondary parts of the suits in in TX and GA - are solely based on 14th amendment racial gerrymandering claims, not section 2 VRA ones. This is different from Milligan and Louisiana, which is why the case remains on the upcoming Supreme Court docket.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So the chance SC is gonna get a second congressional district have gone up exponentially. At this point I think even in NC republicans are only going to gain one seat. RIP Jeff Jackson.

Reminder that congressionally the SC case - as well as the AR, and secondary parts of the suits in in TX and GA - are solely based on 14th amendment racial gerrymandering claims, not section 2 VRA ones. This is different from Milligan and Louisiana, which is why the case remains on the upcoming Supreme Court docket.

Could a second case be brought regarding SC?

[Del Tachi]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.   

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances. 

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.   

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances. 

That's not a completive race, outside of freak circumstances no republican even one with moderate appeal is able to win black voters in substantial number especially in the deep south.  They can win black majority districts if the differential turnout is high enough, but given her district will include a substansial number of college educated liberal voters that won't be that helpful to her here.

[Del Tachi]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.   

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances. 

That's not a completive race, outside of freak circumstances no republican even one with moderate appeal is able to win black voters in substantial number especially in the deep south.  They can win black majority districts if the differential turnout is high enough, but given her district will include a substansial number of college educated liberal voters that won't be that helpful to her here.

....you have obviously never been to Baton Rouge LOL

Letlow is going to win more Black voters than a "normal" Republican in these circumstances.  If differential turnout is high enough, she could win the race.   

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.    

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.    

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances.  

That's not a completive race, outside of freak circumstances no republican even one with moderate appeal is able to win black voters in substantial number especially in the deep south.  They can win black majority districts if the differential turnout is high enough, but given her district will include a substansial number of college educated liberal voters that won't be that helpful to her here.

....you have obviously never been to Baton Rouge LOL

Letlow is going to win more Black voters than a "normal" Republican in these circumstances.  If differential turnout is high enough, she could win the race.    

What are you basing this on? Can you give an example of this happening for a partisan race in the deep south, where a republican is able to outperform Biden by 10 points among a primarily black electorate?


btw I have actually been there, though only for a few hours on a road trip.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.    

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.    

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances.  

This is weapons-grade wishcasting.  Letlow wanted to overturn the 2020 election.  She’s a generic Republican nutjob with no crossover appeal whatsoever.  Nothing moderate about her.  

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.    

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.    

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances.  

That's not a completive race, outside of freak circumstances no republican even one with moderate appeal is able to win black voters in substantial number especially in the deep south.  They can win black majority districts if the differential turnout is high enough, but given her district will include a substansial number of college educated liberal voters that won't be that helpful to her here.

....you have obviously never been to Baton Rouge LOL

Letlow is going to win more Black voters than a "normal" Republican in these circumstances.  If differential turnout is high enough, she could win the race.    

Imagine actually believing this

[jimrtex]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's ext to no crossover voting here

Bizarrely enough, Joseph Cao won the New Orleans based district in 2008 - but that was a really peculiar election, and he lost in 2010.

Yeah and he won a special not a presidential election.

It was a general election - as general as Louisiana elections are given the runoff system.

Louisiana had gone back to partisan nominations for Congress in 2008. So there was the possibility of party primary and runoff followed by a general election.

Louisiana cancels uncontested elections. If there were no contested party primaries then they would go directly to the general election with no runoff. If there was a winner in the primary, they would skip the runoff.

In 2008, Hurricane Gustav prevented the primary from being contested, so it was moved to the date of the primary runoff. If the primary was decisive, they could hold the general election on the federal election date in November.

In LA-2, William Jefferson had already been indicted, and there were 7 Democrats (including Jefferson) running in the primary. Jefferson did not receive a majority.

So in LA-2 there was Democratic primary runoff held on the federal election date in November, which Jefferson won. He was possibly assisted by turnout for Obama. Someone who turns out specifically to vote for Obama might just vote for the familiar name of Jefferson. Someone who wanted to vote Jefferson out, would be more likely to vote in a primary on a different date.

Since the primary runoff was held in November, the general election in LA-2 (and LA-4) was held in December. Obama was not on the ballot, and the "general" election was only held in two districts. Turnout was low. Democrats might well have crossed over to vote to vote for Cao, at least enough to cost Jefferson the election.

Had Gustav not happened, it was possible that Jefferson would have lost the Democratic runoff.

Alternatively, if Louisiana had used the Open Primary, the runoff would have been between two Democrats, and Jefferson might have lost.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.    

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.    

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances.  

This is weapons-grade wishcasting.  Letlow wanted to overturn the 2020 election.  She’s a generic Republican nutjob with no crossover appeal whatsoever.  Nothing moderate about her.  

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.    

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.    

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances.  

That's not a completive race, outside of freak circumstances no republican even one with moderate appeal is able to win black voters in substantial number especially in the deep south.  They can win black majority districts if the differential turnout is high enough, but given her district will include a substansial number of college educated liberal voters that won't be that helpful to her here.

....you have obviously never been to Baton Rouge LOL

Letlow is going to win more Black voters than a "normal" Republican in these circumstances.  If differential turnout is high enough, she could win the race.    

Imagine actually believing this

What I’m assuming is happening is that women are perceived to be more liberal then they actually are, even if they have the same policies, that’s why Klobuchar was seen as a progressive and Warren was seen as Sanders ideological equal. But yea when rubber hits the road these notions are dispelled.

Baton Rouge has a lively black liberal activist base with the likes of Gary Chambers and Sadie Roberts-Joseph. In the LA-02 Special in 2021 Chambers’s best area was Baton Rouge. So yea I don’t imagine Letlow will be able to win over this seat as a republican

[ProgressiveModerate]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.   

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances. 

That's not a completive race, outside of freak circumstances no republican even one with moderate appeal is able to win black voters in substantial number especially in the deep south.  They can win black majority districts if the differential turnout is high enough, but given her district will include a substansial number of college educated liberal voters that won't be that helpful to her here.

....you have obviously never been to Baton Rouge LOL

Letlow is going to win more Black voters than a "normal" Republican in these circumstances.  If differential turnout is high enough, she could win the race.   

Maybe in an off cycle 2022 situation where we saw low black turnout, especially in much of the SouthEastern US. However, I think politics are particularly polarized in the deep South, and in a Pres year you should have more even turnout dynamics; Letlow would be an underdog heading into 2024.

[Spectator]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

[kwabbit]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

[patzer]

here's my attempt at drawing a compact louisiana map



The 2nd is Biden +13, VAP 46% black and 45% white. 1st is Biden +29, VAP 44% white and 40% black. Both should be consistently black performing despite not reaching 50%.

Wouldn't happen because of double bunking R incumbents, though.

[Sol]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

You're assuming that the dynamics of an uncompetitive safe-seat race would obtain in a scenario where LA-05 is a top Democratic target -- that seems like an unlikely assumption to make!

I'm not deeply familiar with Letlow, so I suppose it's possible that she overperforms, maybe even by a lot, but the political context of a safe seat mid term election against noname opposition is radically different than what the new seat is likely to be, which is one of the most Biden-voting seats held by a Republican in the country.

[kwabbit]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

You're assuming that the dynamics of an uncompetitive safe-seat race would obtain in a scenario where LA-05 is top Democratic target -- that seems like an unlikely assumption to make!

I'm not deeply familiar with Letlow, so I suppose it's possible that she overperforms, maybe even by a lot, but the political context of a safe seat mid term election against noname opposition is radically different than what the new seat is likely to be, which is one of the most Biden-voting seats held by a Republican in the country.

Dynamics would be a lot different, but the Dems will have to completely clear the field or it will be hard to get above 50%. The jungle primary is a hindrance, as is Letlow's strength. I think the median scenario would probably be Biden winning the district 54-45, The D-R vote in the primary being 52-48 but where enough Dems run where it's really like 44 top D, 45 Letlow, etc. Then it goes to the runoff where Black turnout may drop further.

Also, Letlow did a lot better than Kennedy did in the Senate race against a different set of no-name candidates. I guess Gary Chambers is fine, but no one paid any attention to this race. I think she is genuinely strong; a telegenic single mother might be better suited to win over Black voters than a crotchety old racist White guy.

[Sol]

Also, has anyone found a reasonably clean way of drawing the New Orleans metro area? I've been playing around with a more compact configuration, making LA-02 plurality Black but still electing the candidate of choice. However, NOLA's crazy geography makes even drawing something reasonably compact difficult.

[Spectator]

There’s a lot of unwarranted assumptions in kwabbit’s response to mine. No, you cannot assume the crossover support she received against a nobody would hold up against a well-funded challenger in a high profile race. Second, there’s no precedence on the federal level of a Republican holding a seat that blue in the House. We’ve had Senate incumbents do welll in blue territory in the south, like Jonny Isakson. But it’s all against no names.

[Sol]

No, a Republican will not win a Biden +10 black seat in the south unless turnout just collapses among blacks. A narrower Biden +5 or so seat, maybe.

Letlow would've won a Biden +10 Black seat in 2022. Race dynamics would have been different in a swing seat, but it doesn't seem like it would've been close either. It could flip in 2024, but she got 10+% more than Trump in most Black counties in her district. And that's with some minor GOP candidates drawing votes. In a 1 v. 1 some of these Delta counties would have had 25 point margin swings to her. This double digit swing was mirrored in MS and AL Black Belt counties.

In some small more Black Parishes:
Morehouse Parish, Trump 56%, Letlow 66%, total GOP 69%
East Carroll Parish, Trump 36%, Letlow 47%, total GOP 50%
Madison Parish, Trump 41%, Letlow 54%, total GOP 56%
Tensas Parish, Trump 47%, Letlow 60%, total GOP 64%

In larger parishes:
Ouchita Parish, Trump 61%, Letlow 71%, total GOP 75%
Rapides Parish, Trump 65%, Letlow 70%, total GOP 77%

Turnout collapsed in 2022. It's not that far fetched to see huge swings in the Black South when it happened just last year. An entrenched incumbent like Sewell would be fine, but an entrenched GOP incumbent vs. a newcomer Dem is not so safe. In Louisiana especially there would be a good chance of a runoff which might feature lower Black turnout.

You're assuming that the dynamics of an uncompetitive safe-seat race would obtain in a scenario where LA-05 is top Democratic target -- that seems like an unlikely assumption to make!

I'm not deeply familiar with Letlow, so I suppose it's possible that she overperforms, maybe even by a lot, but the political context of a safe seat mid term election against noname opposition is radically different than what the new seat is likely to be, which is one of the most Biden-voting seats held by a Republican in the country.

Dynamics would be a lot different, but the Dems will have to completely clear the field or it will be hard to get above 50%. The jungle primary is a hindrance, as is Letlow's strength. I think the median scenario would probably be Biden winning the district 54-45, The D-R vote in the primary being 52-48 but where enough Dems run where it's really like 44 top D, 45 Letlow, etc. Then it goes to the runoff where Black turnout may drop further.

Also, Letlow did a lot better than Kennedy did in the Senate race against a different set of no-name candidates. I guess Gary Chambers is fine, but no one paid any attention to this race. I think she is genuinely strong; a telegenic single mother might be better suited to win over Black voters than a crotchety old racist White guy.

My point is that it's wildly speculative to assume that a Republican would win a highly Democratic, majority Black district in the most polarized region of the country, especially one which is likely to attract a high quality group of candidates.

I'm not counting Letlow out -- she can win if things go her way -- but the priors of anyone in analyzing this sort of district should rate her as an extreme underdog and the fact that people are saying otherwise kind of smells like cope to me.

This is especially true given that we don't even know what this district will look like. Redistricters, especially in Southern states, have a tendency to respond to court ordered VRA districts with higher than needed amount of packing, designed to make sure they comply with the ruling. They could decide to sabotage Graves instead, or draw a Shreveport-Baton Rouge district like Oryxslayer made before, which I believe would double-bunk Letlow and Johnson. All of these are possibilities, and we should wait before we assume that Julia Letlow is the next David Valadao or something.

[Sol]

There’s a lot of unwarranted assumptions in kwabbit’s response to mine. No, you cannot assume the crossover support she received against a nobody would hold up against a well-funded challenger in a high profile race. Second, there’s no precedence on the federal level of a Republican holding a seat that blue in the House. We’ve had Senate incumbents do welll in blue territory in the south, like Jonny Isakson. But it’s all against no names.

The only current-day equivalents are NY-04 Republican-held seats in California, which are both really an extremely different dynamic. Historically the only remotely close parallel would be Ann Northrup, who iirc did well in the Black community in Louisville, but that was almost 20 years ago, in a mostly white and much closer seat, and she lost.

[politicallefty]

Is this going back to the same appeals court panel that heard it (Smith, Higginson, and Willett)? If so, it could be so much worse. An en banc decision could be a problem, but SCOTUS did imply it wanted a plan in place for the 2024 election.