2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1666942275669065728?s=20

Since the two cases were tied at the hip by the Supreme Court itself, one would normally expect this to be ignored an then the previously ordered remapping to commence.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1666942275669065728?s=20

Since the two cases were tied at the hip by the Supreme Court itself, one would normally expect this to be ignored an then the previously ordered remapping to commence.

I read the letter brief and it seems extraordinarily weak. Louisiana doesn't even really engage with the court's decision in Milligan, instead simply reiterating their original objections, many of which were decided by the SCOTUS, even if Louisiana doesn't like their decision. Further, SCOTUS explicitly wrote in Milligan that the district court's findings with respect to Gingles were subject to clear error review. Never put anything past this court but I would be very surprised if this appeal isn't dismissed.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/tekken_guy/status/1667326977882177541

It’s possible to make a Black-majority LA-05 as close as Biden+4. Cassidy won this seat and someone like Letlow can pull a Gerald Greene and hold it as long as she wants.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/tekken_guy/status/1667326977882177541

It’s possible to make a Black-majority LA-05 as close as Biden+4. Cassidy won this seat and someone like Letlow can pull a Gerald Greene and hold it as long as she wants.

Maps like this are put up a lot by DRA users on twitter and atlas on how to "cheat" the VRA ruling, but pretty much never pass through the court and become reality.

The whole point of a VRA section 2 district is that the voters of the minority race can reliably elect the candidate of their choice, especially if the opposition bloc votes against the minority race, which is definitely the case in Louisiana and Alabama.

The lawyers know this, the courts know this, the politicians know this, it just won't happen.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/tekken_guy/status/1667326977882177541

It’s possible to make a Black-majority LA-05 as close as Biden+4. Cassidy won this seat and someone like Letlow can pull a Gerald Greene and hold it as long as she wants.

Maps like this are put up a lot by DRA users on twitter and atlas on how to "cheat" the VRA ruling, but pretty much never pass through the court and become reality.

The whole point of a VRA section 2 district is that the voters of the minority race can reliably elect the candidate of their choice, especially if the opposition bloc votes against the minority race, which is definitely the case in Louisiana and Alabama.

The lawyers know this, the courts know this, the politicians know this, it just won't happen.

There’s a reason the rural black seats in NC and GA still stand. If it looks like cheating, then it’s probably cheating.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/tekken_guy/status/1667326977882177541

It’s possible to make a Black-majority LA-05 as close as Biden+4. Cassidy won this seat and someone like Letlow can pull a Gerald Greene and hold it as long as she wants.

Maps like this are put up a lot by DRA users on twitter and atlas on how to "cheat" the VRA ruling, but pretty much never pass through the court and become reality.

The whole point of a VRA section 2 district is that the voters of the minority race can reliably elect the candidate of their choice, especially if the opposition bloc votes against the minority race, which is definitely the case in Louisiana and Alabama.

The lawyers know this, the courts know this, the politicians know this, it just won't happen.

There’s a reason the rural black seats in NC and GA still stand. If it looks like cheating, then it’s probably cheating.

But the NC one is only Biden +7, is that still legal?

[Torie]

These so called 2 Gingles CD maps seem to violate the metric of reasonably hewing to traditional redistricting criteria mentioned by Justice Roberts. While the yellow BR based CD seems somewhat reasonable looking, what is not "traditional" is wandering around from Baton Rogue to Monroe to Lafayette to Alexandria, chopping each city to pick up the black precincts and exclude the white ones. None of the maps put up were linked to the DRA, so it took me some time to discern what was afoot. So maybe another VRA case will find its way to SCOTUS.

[GALeftist]

These 2 so called 2 Gingles CD maps seem to violate the metric of reasonably hewing to traditional redistricting criteria mentioned by Justice Roberts. While the yellow BR based CD seems somewhat reasonable looking, what is not "traditional" is wandering around from Baton Rogue to Monroe to Lafayette to Alexandria, chopping each city to pick up the black precincts and exclude the white ones. None of the maps put up were linked to the DRA, so it took me some time to discern what was afoot. So maybe another VRA case will find its way to SCOTUS.

I doubt it for a couple reasons.

Firstly, regarding the city chops, the district court considered this issue and found that the proposed remedial plan was superior to the status quo in terms of parish and municipal splits. The Fifth Circuit also found that they were likely to succeed in showing that their alternatives were both sufficiently compact and also not racial gerrymanders. This is, I believe, subject to clear error review, and if SCOTUS was willing to defer to the district court in Milligan I think it will do likewise here.

This is partially a case of "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered" – I'm not the first to note that Louisiana's case is made much more difficult by virtue of the existing map's being very uncompact – but I think there's more to it that people tend to miss here. The stipulation that states must adhere to "traditional redistricting principles" comes to us from cases like Shaw v. Reno, which were dealing with districts like NC's old CDs 1 and 12, which are extremely dissimilar from the proposed remedial maps that have been set forward here. That is to say, existing jurisprudence does not say that section 2 districts must be the types of districts that would be drawn by some hypothetical actor acting with no knowledge of race, and indeed SCOTUS reaffirmed this in Milligan. VRA districts need not adhere maximally to traditional redistricting principles, it just cannot completely eschew them like North Carolina used to.

The other thing is that I think Louisiana really shot themselves in the foot by arguing that the case "presents the same question" as Milligan to get the SCOTUS stay and then doubling back now that Milligan didn't get decided the way they thought it would.

[Torie]

I get it that the non compact maps that were tossed were worse, but the Gingles’ map in AL in Allen was a heck of a lot better, and Roberts expressly mentioned keeping municipalities together, so the LA Gingles map falls squarely in between. If the comparison test between the map passed and the Gingles map prevails as the standard, then yeah the LA hog map tanks the Pubs. If one needs as well a prong that the Gingles map must better hew to traditional redistricting criteria, or at least match it, it arguably fails.

What is missing here is a prong that the map passed must be superior based on traditional redistricting criteria than the hypothetical Gingles map. Roberts alluded/implied that as well, but since not applicable to AL, he did not get into the weeds as to remedies, e.g., that a map must be drawn that is superior to the Gingles map based on traditional redistricting criteria, and if none exist, then minority performing districts must be drawn as dictated by Gingles. That to me would be the appropriate standard.

The Pubs would be wise to pass the Torie map that I drew, and toss the hog map. We shall see.

Good post, one of among many that I have noticed from you lately. You must be a legal type or it’s a major avocation of yours. Thank you.

[GALeftist]

I get it that the non compact maps that were tossed were worse, but the Gingles’ map in AL in Allen was a heck of a lot better, and Roberts expressly mentioned keeping municipalities together, so the LA Gingles map falls squarely in between. If the comparison test between the map passed and the Gingles map prevails as the standard, then yeah the LA hog map tanks the Pubs. If one needs as well a prong that the Gingles map must better hew to traditional redistricting criteria, or at least match it, it arguably fails.

One is missing here is a prong that the map passed must be superior based on traditional redistricting criteria than the hypothetical Gingles map. Roberts alluded/implied that as well, but since not applicable to AL, he did not get into the weeds as to remedies, e.g., that a map must be drawn that is superior to the Gingles map based on traditional redistricting criteria, and if none exist, then minority performing districts must be drawn as dictated by Gingles. That to me would be the appropriate standard.

The Pubs would be wise to pass the Torie map that I drew, and toss the hog map. We shall see.

Good post, one of among many that I have noticed from you lately. You must be a legal type or it’s a major avocation of yours. Thank you.

Thank you, truly, that means a lot coming from you!

[Sol]

If you want to "save" Letlow, the easiest way is by making sure that Graves is the one who goes, which is pretty easy.

[GALeftist]

June 26, 2023 SCOTUS order re: Ardoin v. Robinson:

"The writ of certiorari before judgment is dismissed as improvidently granted. The stay heretofore entered by the Court on June 28, 2022, is vacated. This will allow the matter to proceed before the Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit for review in the ordinary course and in advance of the 2024 congressional elections in Louisiana. See this Court's Rule 11."

Judging by what I've read from the Fifth Circuit on this matter, looks like Louisiana is getting a second VRA district.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1673323804683018242?s=20

Louisiana State Republicans shady and desperate appeal that their case was once similar to Milligan but now isn't fails. Stay is lifted, Plaintiff success in the lower courts is the current outcome.  



This was the map the district court produced before Purcell and Milligan occurred. One suspects that if the state will redraw without a master, the map will have quite a few more changes.

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1673323804683018242?s=20
Louisiana State Republicans shady and desperate appeal that their case was once similar to Milligan but now isn't fails. Stay is lifted, Plaintiff success in the lower courts is the current outcome.  



This was the map the district court produced before Purcell and Milligan occurred. One suspects that if the state will redraw without a master, the map will have quite a few more changes.

Wow, even knowing that this was guaranteed to happen after Alabama I’m still kinda shocked.

There goes any and all thought of a Senator Letlow happening, unless they somehow sacrifice Garret Graves instead, which is less likely to happen.

[soundchaser]

If I somehow get into District 2 I might cry. The chance to meaningfully vote for anyone but Scalise would be a dream come true.

Which is to say: I hope they shore him up in St. Tammany rather than Jefferson.

[Oryxslayer]

If I somehow get into District 2 I might cry. The chance to meaningfully vote for anyone but Scalise would be a dream come true.

Which is to say: I hope they shore him up in St. Tammany rather than Jefferson.

If you live in the East Bank, I wouldn't put much hope in that. Outside of a handful of specific precincts which are mostly (but not all!) in LA02 already, its a strongly majority white region. And thats before we talk about how the Metairie GOP seemingly has huge influence, or how Scalise lives in the East Bank.

[soundchaser]

If I somehow get into District 2 I might cry. The chance to meaningfully vote for anyone but Scalise would be a dream come true.

Which is to say: I hope they shore him up in St. Tammany rather than Jefferson.

If you live in the East Bank, I wouldn't put much hope in that. Outside of a handful of specific precincts which are mostly (but not all!) in LA02 already, its a strongly majority white region. And thats before we talk about how the Metairie GOP seemingly has huge influence, or how Scalise lives in the East Bank.

I know it's a pipe dream, because I'm on the East Bank, although close enough to Orleans Parish -- and not in Metairie -- that I'm a *little* hopeful. (Only 70% white as opposed to Metairie's 77%.) If you were to draw a majority-minority district in part through the East Bank, it would probably have to run through my area.

You're right, though, that it's more likely to run through the West Bank.

[Torie]

The stay is lifted, but that leaves the issue of whether a second black CD needs to be drawn. if the lower court orders something, it might go back up.

[Oryxslayer]

The stay is lifted, but that leaves the issue of whether a second black CD needs to be drawn. if the lower court orders something, it might go back up.

The lower court already ruled favorably. The state then asked for a stay in the 5th, which said no (which really says all you need to know since this is the 5th) and put the case on an very expedited schedule before Milligan. Mapping is proceeding unless something new is handed down. It's like 95% done but tied up with a neat knot yet.

[Del Tachi]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

[Nyvin]

The stay is lifted, but that leaves the issue of whether a second black CD needs to be drawn. if the lower court orders something, it might go back up.

The three judge panel already ordered a second black district I thought?

[Torie]

The stay is lifted, but that leaves the issue of whether a second black CD needs to be drawn. if the lower court orders something, it might go back up.

The three judge panel already ordered a second black district I thought?

Could be, but the panel will need to proceed in accordance with the dictates of the Milligan decision, and whatever they decide can go back up the ladder again.

What bothers me is that Roberts wrote about respecting municipal bounderies, and this chops 4 of them in a major way. Such a chop fest was not needed in Alabama. On the other hand, why did SCOTUS just dissolve the stay rather than commenting further knowing it will probably go back up again. I don't know. I look forward to someone being better able to read the tea leaves than I.

Another perhaps unlikely possibility is that the legislature will pass something like my map posted above, that does not produce two performing black CD's, but is far superior on neutral metrics to the two black CD's map. And then that will be litigated back up.

Addendum:

The below is a pretty good summary. The precise contours of the Milligan decision as it applies to LA remain to be litigated.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/26/politics/supreme-court-louisiana-congressional-redistricting/index.html

[GALeftist]

I think that those worried about insufficient compactness or excessive municipality splits might find this portion of the Fifth Circuit's order denying motion to stay the district court's order pending appeal:

"First, the defendants’ expert Dr. Thomas Bryan observed that the illustrative districting exercised 'surgical' precision in splitting Baton Rouge and Lafayette between congressional districts such that the black neighborhoods were included in CD 5. Id. at *17. Those split political divisions tend to show that CD 5 breached a traditional redistricting criterion in those locations and raise the possibility that CD 5 divides communities of interest based in a single municipality. But providing evidence of a minor departure in one area of the district has only limited probative value with respect to the compliance of the district with traditional redistricting criteria on the whole. And any implication that the proposed CD 5 splits up communities of interest in Baton Rouge and Lafayette is outweighed by the plaintiffs’ direct testimony that the black populations in CD 5 are culturally compact." (11)

In other words, the Fifth Circuit seems to think that the chops are OK because they are in service of the greater goal of uniting Black Louisianans, who themselves constitute a COI. As far as I can tell, this doesn't seem to be in tension with either Milligan or Gingles.

To the extent that hope exists for Louisiana, though, I would say that they lie in the compactness question. The Fifth Circuit notes repeatedly that the defendants almost conceded this point and put all their eggs in the basket of racial gerrymandering. However, given the language above, I am >90% sure that plaintiffs will prevail.

[Torie]

I see more tension in that statement that the CD is compact because it’s black and what Roberts wrote, but maybe SCOTUS at this point does not care much about revisiting the issue.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.    

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here