2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Oryxslayer]

It would be interesting if revenge does lead to a new AA seat, cause I'm fully of the expectation that the special session will lead to a BS map like the Alabama attempt. AKA an attempt to further stall. Which will lead to a summary district court trial and ruling imposing a special master map, likely to be close to the plaintiffs map. But we shall see  

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1740515521056084374?t=CuheOwVuvuLdlNNMU...

So it's been going in the background,  but there is a lawsuit against the court for not having 2 AA districts.  There is also just a general desire to bring the districts closer to OMOV, since Katrina created 150k+ pop deviations since the last time this got redrawn. The court wants both to be addressed here, seemingly proposing it's own map, (supposedly included but nobody right now has a visual copy) to be adopted without changes, that does both which has majority approval. Notable since that got 4/6 conservatives to sign on.

If the leg does take it up, they will either show deference to the court like in past sessions and just pass their stuff, or go the partisan route and fix the population deviation but not the access issues.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1740515521056084374?t=CuheOwVuvuLdlNNMU...

So it's been going in the background,  but there is a lawsuit against the court for not having 2 AA districts.  There is also just a general desire to bring the districts closer to OMOV, since Katrina created 150k+ pop deviations since the last time this got redrawn. The court wants both to be addressed here, seemingly proposing it's own map, (supposedly included but nobody right now has a visual copy) to be adopted without changes, that does both which has majority approval. Notable since that got 4/6 conservatives to sign on.

If the leg does take it up, they will either show deference to the court like in past sessions and just pass their stuff, or go the partisan route and fix the population deviation but not the access issues.

Wow.

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1741094791595667671?t=2x9fsbXycqsl7nvN3...

[Oryxslayer]

The district 6 is wild. Someone clearly wanted things like that. It's probably why the chief justice who sits in district 6 didn't sign the letter.  The other thing to note is that only districts 1 and 7 maintain their current geography. The other 5 shuffle around so that District 2, Whose incumbent is termed up in 2024 (and Scott Crichton didn't sign the notice fyi), is made the AA district in accordance with the stated principles.

Anyway, the proposal is a unique opportunity to fix the many problems and cut through the gordian knot surrounding the court, and should ideally be accepted at face value, even with some backroom shenanigans.

[Stuart98]

Hmm, Lake Charles is actually a little blacker than Lafayette, I think it's worth the small red counties you have to pick up to access it. This is now my preferred configuration for a Gravesdigger.




I think Higgins would probably be okay with this, he actually does pretty poorly in the Lake Charles part of his seat. Scalise might not be happy though, he'd be favored in his new seat but it's got a bit over a third of Graves' old one in it.

[politicallefty]

I'd be surprised if any map gets through the courts that isn't the L-shape VRA district mentioned many times before (and on the previous page).

[Oryxslayer]

Supreme Court redistricting has been placed on the agenda alongside Congressional remapping for the Special Session (overlapping) that starts on the 15th.

[Stuart98]

I'd be surprised if any map gets through the courts that isn't the L-shape VRA district mentioned many times before (and on the previous page).

As long as the new majority black district is reliably democratic, the courts will be fine with it. It comes down to which R legislative Republicans are okay throwing under the bus (if they're willing to do that rather than have the court decide).

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1746586429751185700?t=-fng1EB8kjbSjRILPy...

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1746575935376142821?t=j9SIbI-LcXbHbFnQpvRA3g&am...


Fields represents SD 14 in downtown Baton Rouge. Though drawing a seat specifically for a certain candidate won't go as easily as before if the state eliminates the jungle system,  denying the ability of Rs to vote for one D versus another in a runoff.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you think part of the reason Rs (appear) to be willing to comply is because of their recent strong performances in LA races? Perhaps they think in the long run they’d be favored to win a heavily black Biden+ 6-10 seat.

[Oryxslayer]

We'll have to see what happens, but if there is an actual resolution during the special session (starts today), i wouldn't put any tactical strategy to it. Rather, just the new Gov showing he doesn't want to fight this losing battle anymore, and the State and Fedral Supreme Courts signaling that they and their authority/prestige also want it all over.

[MaxQue]

We'll have to see what happens, but if there is an actual resolution during the special session (starts today), i wouldn't put any tactical strategy to it. Rather, just the new Gov showing he doesn't want to fight this losing battle anymore, and the Supreme Court signaling that they and their authority also want it all over.

Oh, Graves was both a close ally of McCarthy and an opponent of the new governor, so I feel there is no qualms about throwing him under the bus.

[Nyvin]

So is this it or will there be more maps?  LA-6 is Biden+14.5%,  should be fine with the courts, surprisingly.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1746984181370953989

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5f0a24c8-45d1-4be7-9c76-cc99cfa53292

[ProgressiveModerate]

I’m suprised that plan appears to take in nearly all of EastBaton Rouge County Parish. Would’ve thought the GOP would’ve kept out some of the R-leaning decently well-to-do southern part of the County for donor purposes, plus that area is shifting left which might put the district out the reach for Rs in the long run.

[Oryxslayer]

If this follows that last time, a big if, there will be a mountain of maps sponsored,  few taken up. If more come, it's probably not this one cause of White southern BR in the 6th. Though it does suggest the session will have a product of resolution rather than continual conflict. One: it's a 2AA map coming from the GOP.  2: it has all the elements of what we were foreshadowed by merging 5 and 6.

[patzer]

I’m suprised that plan appears to take in nearly all of EastBaton Rouge County Parish. Would’ve thought the GOP would’ve kept out some of the R-leaning decently well-to-do southern part of the County for donor purposes, plus that area is shifting left which might put the district out the reach for Rs in the long run.

Probably a case of wanting the district to favour Letlow over Graves.

[Oryxslayer]

I’m suprised that plan appears to take in nearly all of EastBaton Rouge County Parish. Would’ve thought the GOP would’ve kept out some of the R-leaning decently well-to-do southern part of the County for donor purposes, plus that area is shifting left which might put the district out the reach for Rs in the long run.

Probably a case of wanting the district to favour Letlow over Graves.

Building off this map, you can still do this while having the seat favor the north of the state. You just get the 1st a bit more - but not too much - more involved in the BR region probably by dropping its parts of St. Bernard, St. Charles, and choice precincts in NOLA and the East Bank of Jefferson. Then you do the big rotation of pop through 3 and 4 so specific areas get added to 6 to compensate for losing the GOP part of the city.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747039115097395694

[Oryxslayer]

We're getting Shreveport to BR LFG!!!!

Legitimately has long been my preferred option for a second AA seat for years cause you are following the river. A clear COI compared to the L or the BR octopus. Also in this situation, protects the Speaker by yanking out the uber-AA precincts like how LA-02 does now with BR. Though once it was announced that they were looking at screwing Graves, I explored the options and found that the diagonal actually made the most sense if you want that outcome and a 50%+1 VAP seat. Obviously, compared to how it's drawn by the legislator, it can be neater, and IMO the GOP seats should be neater to prevent compactness allegations:

[Nyvin]

The Shreveport-BR district wouldn't be as effective as electing Cleo Fields in the D primary since it takes out a big chunk of Baton Rouge, which is his base. Also the Shreveport D's could conceivably get their candidate to be competitive in the primary too possibly (Baton Rouge would still be favored though).

In the first map the rest of the Dem vote outside of Baton Rouge is scattered so no other local parties could really compete with Fields.

[Pollster]

That Baton Rouge to Shreveport seat has big "Tallahassee to Jacksonville" vibes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747039115097395694

It’s hard to tell but does 1 take in some heavily D precincts along the New Orleans waterfront? Or are the areas it takes in all basically 0 population or Republican leaning

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ByPiperHutch/status/1747039115097395694

It’s hard to tell but does 1 take in some heavily D precincts along the New Orleans waterfront? Or are the areas it takes in all basically 0 population or Republican leaning

I think thats just Lakeview, the water precinct, and the Bayou precincts in the far east for road connectivity from the bridge to the south suburbs.

[Brittain33]

That Baton Rouge to Shreveport seat has big "Tallahassee to Jacksonville" vibes.

Has anyone measured the length to see if it matches the Georgia-Florida border? That’s a no-no.