CBS/YouGov: Early States

[Zaybay]

Iowa:
Sanders- 22%
Biden- 22%
Buttigieg- 21%
Warren- 18%

New Hampshire:
Warren- 31%
Biden- 22%
Sanders- 20%
Buttigieg- 16%

Nevada:
Biden- 33%
Sanders- 23%
Warren- 21%

South Carolina:
Biden- 45%
Warren- 17%
Sanders- 15%

Delegate Count for Early Contests(Early States+Super Tuesday States):
Biden- 629
Warren- 580
Sanders- 251
Buttigieg- 23
Klobuchar- 11

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1M-ts_DW6Fxm-HkYvM2fUhSffknRDbSQq/view

[Cinemark]

Did they flip the NH and IA results? /s

[Matty]

Contested convention

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s a link to all of the results:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pete-buttigieg-rises-in-iowa-new-hampshire-biden-back-atop-delegate-hunt-cbs-news-poll/

Polls conducted Nov. 6 - 13.

Iowa:
Sanders 22%
Biden 22%
Buttigieg 21%
Warren 18%
Klobuchar 5%
Harris 5%
Steyer 2%
Booker 1%
Yang 1%
Bullock 1%
Castro 1%
everyone else 0%

NH:
Warren 31%
Biden 22%
Sanders 20%
Buttigieg 16%
Klobuchar 3%
Harris 3%
Steyer 1%
Booker 1%
Yang 1%
everyone else 0%

Nevada:
Biden 33%
Sanders 23%
Warren 21%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 4%
Booker 2%
Steyer 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Yang 1%
Castro 1%
everyone else 0%

SC:
Biden 45%
Warren 17%
Sanders 15%
Buttigieg 8%
Harris 5%
Steyer 2%
Booker 2%
Delaney 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gabbard 1%
Bullock 1%
everyone else 0%

Neither Bloomberg nor Patrick were included as options in these polls, though they did ask this question in the aggregate poll of all Super Tuesday + pre-Super Tuesday states:

[wbrocks67]

Pete must be doing horrendously in the non-first 4 states if he's only at 9%, just above Harris. Likewise, Harris must still be doing well in CA if she's at 7% despite being at only ~4-5% in the first states.

[Mr. Morden]

For all of the early states (Super Tuesday + pre-Super Tuesday) combined:

Biden 29%
Warren 26%
Sanders 18%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 7%
Klobuchar 2%
Booker 2%
Castro 1%
Yang 1%
Bennet 1%
everyone else 0%

age 18-29:
Warren 31%
Sanders 30%
Biden 12%
Buttigieg 9%

age 65+:
Biden 42%
Warren 24%
Buttigieg 11%
Sanders 8%

white:
Warren 31%
Biden 22%
Sanders 18%
Buttigieg 12%

black:
Biden 49%
Warren 16%
Sanders 13%
Harris 11%

Hispanic:
Biden 31%
Sanders 23%
Warren 19%
Buttigieg 8%

[Mr. Morden]

Pete must be doing horrendously in the non-first 4 states if he's only at 9%, just above Harris. Likewise, Harris must still be doing well in CA if she's at 7% despite being at only ~4-5% in the first states.

Keep in mind, the first four states are a tiny drop in the bucket in votes/delegates compared to all the Super Tuesday states combined.  So Buttigieg and Harris could both be at about 8% in the Super Tuesday states combined, and it'd be consistent with this poll.  In Harris's case, her stronger states might not only be California, but also at least parts of the South, since the poll has her at 11% among black voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, You Gov had Warren way ahead in its regular polls, in conjunction with CBS, has Biden ahead? Way to go with inconsistent polling😩😩😕

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

We've seen polls in the last couple months put Sanders ahead in all of IA, NH, and NV and now he's officially SURGING but yea he should 100% drop out.  What a disaster!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It all boils down to SC, no candidates have been able to crack Biden's freiwal.

[Skill and Chance]

Contested convention

This would point to a pretty clear Biden win.  No one else is making any inroads in the diverse Southern/SW states and I highly doubt Warren would actually win NH after coming in 4th in Iowa.

[Adam Griffin]

It all boils down to SC, no candidates have been able to crack Biden's freiwal.

Self-awareness achieved!

[Rookie Yinzer]

If Pete blunts Warren and Sanders in the first two lily white states, it's over for them and Biden will steamroll to the nomination.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It all boils down to SC, no candidates have been able to crack Biden's freiwal.

Self-awareness achieved!

As I stated before, "Way to go for inconsistent polling!", as YouGov polling that doesnt include CBS had Warren ahead of Biden.

After Cali votes, for Biden, he can run a GE campaign

[ProudModerate2]

Delegate Count for Early Contests(Early States+Super Tuesday States):
Biden- 629
Warren- 580
Sanders- 251
Buttigieg- 23
Klobuchar- 11

Boy oh boy.
Does this look like an eventual contested convention?

[President Johnson]

Wow, Biden's lead in South Carolina is huge. If could just win New Hampshire or Iowa, that'll make him unstopable. He seems to be in good shape in Nevada either. If he makes it into March, Uncle Joe will sweep Super Tuesday.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Pete must be doing horrendously in the non-first 4 states if he's only at 9%, just above Harris. Likewise, Harris must still be doing well in CA if she's at 7% despite being at only ~4-5% in the first states.

Nah, it's just that most people hardly know who he is, much less that he's a top-tier contender for the nomination.  If he wins Iowa (especially if he follows it with a win or really close second in New Hampshire), folks will take a closer look as his numbers will spike nationally.

[Bojack Horseman]

Contested convention

This would point to a pretty clear Biden win.  No one else is making any inroads in the diverse Southern/SW states and I highly doubt Warren would actually win NH after coming in 4th in Iowa.

I don’t see how Biden would win a contested convention. All the Bernie delegates would vote for Warren or vice versa.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's look at this poll. This poll falls in line with Fox and Harris X polls that shows Biden has the clear advantage. There wont be no contested convention, since whomever have the majority of the delegates will get all of the delegates, once the delegates are released. Every candidate,  D or R, if they lost released all their delegates to winner. Which will be Biden

[GeneralMacArthur]

Contested convention

This would point to a pretty clear Biden win.  No one else is making any inroads in the diverse Southern/SW states and I highly doubt Warren would actually win NH after coming in 4th in Iowa.

I don’t see how Biden would win a contested convention. All the Bernie delegates would vote for Warren or vice versa.

Delegates are locked on the first ballot, and the superdelegates join in after that.

[Mr. Morden]

Let's look at this poll.

Done.

[Mr. Morden]

Contested convention

This would point to a pretty clear Biden win.  No one else is making any inroads in the diverse Southern/SW states and I highly doubt Warren would actually win NH after coming in 4th in Iowa.

I don’t see how Biden would win a contested convention. All the Bernie delegates would vote for Warren or vice versa.

Delegates are locked on the first ballot, and the superdelegates join in after that.

They're locked on the first ballot unless the candidate they're pledged to releases them.  If Sanders was willing to cut a deal with Warren, he could release his delegates and ask them to vote for Warren on the first ballot, thereby handing her the nomination without it ever getting to the second ballot.  Or it could go the other way around.  Warren releases her delegates and asks them to vote for Sanders.

[Tender Branson]

These polls look suspiciously bad, because Tulsi is at 0% in NH and IA ...

[MT Treasurer]

No way Biden loses the nomination if these are the actual results.

[GeorgiaModerate]

These polls look suspiciously bad, because Tulsi is at 0% in NH and IA ...

Possibly her 15 minutes are up.