LA - Trafalgar (R): Rispone + 2

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1195848903138127873

rounded because DECIMALS ARE BAD

just posting this for the record

[Bidenworth2020]

semantics I know, but wouldnt this be Rispone +1?

[Gracile]

Rounded it would be Rispone +1.

Anyway, it's Trafalgar, so take it with a grain of salt, but it's in line with most of the other polls showing this race to be close. I'd be surprised if the final result is decided by more than 1%.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

semantics I know, but wouldnt this be Rispone +1?

You round Rispone to 51 and JBE to 49, which is where I get +2

[Landslide Lyndon]

[Bandit3 the Worker]

From now on, anything Trafalgar or Gravis says needs to be flushed right down the johnnypot.

[Cinemark]

Trafalgar will be forever the pollster who accurately foresaw Michigan and Pennsylvania flipping to Trump in 2016. And while they got Florida right in 2018, they missed both the Nevada and Arizona senate races. This year they've missed Kentucky and Louisiana. In close races, Trafalgar overestimates Republican support and that should be taken into account for the future.

[UncleSam]

Trafalgar consistently sees results as being a few points more rosy for Rs than they are. They are still within the MOE of the final result, but we should generally be aware they have a soft R bias.

[DINGO Joe]

Trafalgar consistently sees results as being a few points more rosy for Rs than they are. They are still within the MOE of the final result, but we should generally be aware they have a soft R bias.

I don't think there was any poll on Louisiana that wasn't within the MoE

[Person Man]

A R+5 house effect. NOICE! I guess Trafalgar is the new "best case" for Republicans. They usually nail it when the Republican overperforms FWIW.

[Person Man]

This is obviously accurate.