2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Indiana

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/67f8d84a-8291-49b5-b1b2-24dedd78c824
non-partisan IN map based off of 2016 block groups

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/67f8d84a-8291-49b5-b1b2-24dedd78c824
non-partisan IN map based off of 2016 block groups

Wow I didn't realize how badly NW IN was losing population, that district is expanding rapidly into rural IN, making it easier to crack.  Also at the very least the Marion district is moving north.  Dems should push for a map that gives R incumbents super safe and desirable seats in exchange for keeping 2 Dem seats.  Dems have little leverage however.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/67f8d84a-8291-49b5-b1b2-24dedd78c824
non-partisan IN map based off of 2016 block groups

Wow I didn't realize how badly NW IN was losing population, that district is expanding rapidly into rural IN, making it easier to crack.  Also at the very least the Marion district is moving north.  Dems should push for a map that gives R incumbents super safe and desirable seats in exchange for keeping 2 Dem seats.  Dems have little leverage however.

For what its worth the area of current IN-01 is actually barely behind the state in population trends.
I just took the district south to avoid any county splits.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The rural counties the 1st took on could still be added with a GOPmander of sorts in mind - allowing for an upset win in a case where Trumpist trends continue in a good GOP year. They only total up to 73k however.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If you really want to hurt the Ds, remove Porter County, and make it compose of Lake, Newton, Benton, Warren, Jasper, White, Pulaski, Starke, Fulton, Miami, Cass, and Carroll counties. Such a district would be only D+1.53 and 58.9-40 Obama and Clinton by less than 6,000 votes in 2016.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2a68a95a-3de1-4772-9c4e-1b0dffe11d26
https://davesredistricting.org/join/e366b725-5c94-47f4-b0c5-e8f1fac32ca5
an Indiana map targetting IN-01, fortifying IN-05, and the like. IN-02 moves left but it would remain challenging. But it wouldn't be as solid as it used to.

[Idaho Conservative]

7 safe R, 1 lean R, 1 safe D
https://davesredistricting.org/join/c6524a5e-27f8-47c5-8b4f-ff159dd9e1fc

[Idaho Conservative]

8 safe R  1 safe D

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

7 safe R, 1 lean R, 1 safe D
https://davesredistricting.org/join/c6524a5e-27f8-47c5-8b4f-ff159dd9e1fc

I...doubt the GOP will draw a Greensburg-to-Gary district. It's so massively ugly.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e96cd576-fde1-4a28-8d77-a749b19b9e3f
1 - R+8
2 - R+8
3 - R+8
4 - R+11
5 - R+15
6 - R+15
7 - D+16
8 - R+15
9 - R+18

It isn't even that hard to draw a 8-1 that's actually secure and isn't utterly grotesque.

[libertpaulian]

Are there any threads for statehouse redistricting?

[Oryxslayer]

Are there any threads for statehouse redistricting?

If people are interested, they post their statehouse maps in these threads as well as the congressional maps. The example that immediately springs to mind is Georgia.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e96cd576-fde1-4a28-8d77-a749b19b9e3f
1 - R+8
2 - R+8
3 - R+8
4 - R+11
5 - R+15
6 - R+15
7 - D+16
8 - R+15
9 - R+18

It isn't even that hard to draw a 8-1 that's actually secure and isn't utterly grotesque.

I mean, that northwest corner is pretty grotesque there...

[dpmapper]

If you want to keep the GOP districts safer, this is how you can do it. 

1st is D+1.05.  Of the GOP districts, the least R is actually the red Fort Wayne district at R+11.75, surprisingly enough.  All others are R+13 or better. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e7fba6d2-fd65-40bc-8cf5-f276be831b64
I drew this IN R gerrymander.
This de-packs the 1st and reduces the D PVI but not by enough to imperil Jackie Walorski, who doubtless would know she would not safe in a seat with a PVI below R+7. Other than that the main things are the 5th pulling out into Marion and there are 5 whole county CDs.

[S019]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71ffef7a-a5f1-4ba8-949f-33d2b59e5b9e, I drew this not long ago, it splits Lake and creates an 8-1 map. Walorski probably isn't too happy with this map, however

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71ffef7a-a5f1-4ba8-949f-33d2b59e5b9e, I drew this not long ago, it splits Lake and creates an 8-1 map. Walorski probably isn't too happy with this map, however

This map is a perfect demonstration as to why I don't think they'll crack Lake County. 1) It risks playing with fire especially since IN is swingy and there is no guarantee they'll put up Trump-tier numbers in the state forever, 2) parochial GOP incumbent interests will be a major force, 3) You can't even make every seat in the northern part of the state solid R unless you tear apart loads of counties (on this map a total of 47 counties are split at least once and that doesn't even make all the seats Solid R), 4) it looks extremely ugly, 5) No GOPer will want to represent Gary, 6) all of the above would actually look very bad to the broader public and risk litigation, and 7) it is possible to make the 1st marginal without seriously jeopardizing any of the R districts.
Just keep the 2nd at R+7 or more, respect county lines, keep things superficially nice-looking, and you'll be fine. Oh, and pull the 5th out of Marion.

[I’m not Stu]

The Garymander is so unsightly.

[Coastal Elitist]

I recreated the gerrymander 538 did the best that I could and got
https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e2e8b27-bf42-41a8-96a1-5fa27fa0fd3e

1 - R+6
2 - R+9
3 - R+9
4 - R+6
5 - R+9
6 - R+11
7- R+9
8 - R+12
9 - R+11

[Sol]

I recreated the gerrymander 538 did the best that I could and got
https://davesredistricting.org/join/1e2e8b27-bf42-41a8-96a1-5fa27fa0fd3e

1 - R+6
2 - R+9
3 - R+9
4 - R+6
5 - R+9
6 - R+11
7- R+9
8 - R+12
9 - R+11

Of course, Obama won all of them except 5, 7, and 9 in 2008. Which shows some of the danger of such ambitious gerrymandering, especially in a state with more elastic voters like Indiana.

[Idaho Conservative]

8-1 that keeps incumbents in their districts, doesn't endanger anyone too much, shores up IN-5, and looks pretty clean despite all that.  IN-1 isn't safe R, but is very R leaning, especially considering Dems are maxed out in Gary. 
IN-1 R+6 
IN-2 R+9 
IN-3 R+11
IN-4 R+11
IN-5 R+17
IN-6 R+16
IN-7 D+17
IN-8 R+15
IN-9 R+13

[I’m not Stu]

Is it legal, or at least physically possible to draw a 9R-0D map in Indiana? It's legal to draw 18D-0R or 17D-0R maps in Illinois.

[TML]

Is it legal, or at least physically possible to draw a 9R-0D map in Indiana? It's legal to draw 18D-0R or 17D-0R maps in Illinois.

As mentioned in this thread, 538's Atlas of Redistricting has one map where all 9 districts are ostensibly strongly R-leaning, but some here apparently think such a map could backfire on Republicans if they have bad years nationally.

[Idaho Conservative]

Is it legal, or at least physically possible to draw a 9R-0D map in Indiana? It's legal to draw 18D-0R or 17D-0R maps in Illinois.

probably legal, definitely inadvisable.  Also Illinois can't do that.  3 black and 1 hispanic vra seat are mandated.  Once you take those out, IL is much less blue and an 18-0 map could massively backfire and republicans could win a majority in a midterm election.  Also it would be visually appalling.

[I’m not Stu]

Is it legal, or at least physically possible to draw a 9R-0D map in Indiana? It's legal to draw 18D-0R or 17D-0R maps in Illinois.

probably legal, definitely inadvisable.  Also Illinois can't do that.  3 black and 1 hispanic vra seat are mandated.  Once you take those out, IL is much less blue and an 18-0 map could massively backfire and republicans could win a majority in a midterm election.  Also it would be visually appalling.

Somebody supposedly created a 18D-0R VRA-compliant Illinois map with 3 AA and 1 Hispanic. What does a 9R-0D Indiana map look like?
https://twitter.com/BadElectionMaps/status/1212909359572881408