Rate CA-50 for 2020
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Poll
Question: Which party will win California's 50th congressional district in 2020?
#1
Safe D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Tilt D/Tossup		  
#5
Tilt R/Tossup		  
#6
Lean R		  
#7
Likely R		  
#8
Safe R		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 57

Author Topic: Rate CA-50 for 2020  (Read 1038 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« on: November 16, 2019, 02:53:48 PM »
This district has a PVI of R+11. Currently represented by Republican Duncan Hunter, CA-50 consists of San Diego County's central and northeastern portions, in addition to a small sliver of Riverside County. In 2012, Romney won this district by 22.8%. In 2016, Trump won this district by 15%.

In the 2018 Governor election, Cox won this district by 18.2%.

Duncan Hunter, indicted in 2018 for misusing campaign funds, is experiencing strong challenges from within his own party. Democrat candidates include Ammar Campa-Najjar. Republican candidates include Carl DeMaio and Darrel Issa.

Recent Results
2018: R +3.4
2016: R +27
2014: R +42.4
2012: R +35.2
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Gracile
gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2019, 03:06:50 PM »
Safe R with any Republican besides Hunter, Likely R if Hunter runs for reelection or doesn't leave office (voted Likely R for this poll). Despite Hunter's scandals, this district is just too Republican on the whole to flip.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2019, 03:09:45 PM »
Safe R, because I don't think Hunter makes the general, and his scandals were the only reason this seat was close in 2018.
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eb782
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« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2019, 06:01:59 PM »
I would say lean R even if Hunter isnt the nominee.
I could definitely see a democratic upset, something like Kendra Horn in 2018
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morgieb
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« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2019, 06:33:17 PM »
If Hunter isn't the nominee, Safe R. Lean/Likely R if he is. So I guess Likely R is the best fit.
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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2019, 03:11:55 PM »
Poll reset as the incumbent, Duncan Hunter, has now stated he will NOT run again in 2020 and may resign, making this an open seat for 2020.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2019, 03:14:42 PM »
Safe R then.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2019, 03:40:23 PM »
Safe R for 2020, but could become interesting in a few cycles.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2019, 03:48:22 PM »
Safe R without Hunter.
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Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2019, 03:49:17 PM »
With Hunter gone it’s Safe R.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2019, 05:42:14 PM »
Safe R now that Hunter's not going to run again. Even if he was it would still be Safe R.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2019, 05:48:31 PM »
Safe R for 2020,  might be interesting after redistricting.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2020, 02:00:29 AM »
Safe R for sure now. We must prepare ourselves for the return of Darrell Issa to Congress now, as Hunter's impending resignation has cleared the path for him almost completely, unless DeMaio is able to pull off an upset.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2020, 12:39:39 PM »


Looks like a fairly clear tossup between Issa and DeMaio on who will be succeeding Hunter.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2020, 09:21:31 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on January 14, 2020, 12:39:39 PM


Looks like a fairly clear tossup between Issa and DeMaio on who will be succeeding Hunter.

A tossup which I bet Issa will win. As a former Representative, he has the connections, and of course, he has his own vast personal wealth, which both give him an advantage over DeMaio.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2020, 11:16:11 AM »
Am I dreaming if the main Democratic candidate can somehow win?
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Gracile
gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2020, 11:19:10 AM »
Quote from: The Arizonan on January 18, 2020, 11:16:11 AM
Am I dreaming if the main Democratic candidate can somehow win?

Yes. It's Safe R now that Hunter is gone.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #17 on: February 27, 2020, 03:23:44 PM »
Looks like Darrell Issa might be heading back to congress. Latest poll from CA-50:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=61197540-a792-49f0-9889-4dca5ad251ee

Campa-Najjar (D) 35%
Issa (R) 21%
DeMaio (R) 15%
Jones (R) 7%
Calderon (D) 5%
Wilkins (R) 3%
Horvath (I) 1%
Undecided 12%

Should be Safe R in the general
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
cuddlebuns
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« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2020, 02:19:41 PM »
If the primary has the 50%+1 rule, and the primary is also on Super Tuesday, doesn't Campa-Najjar have a chance based entirely on turnout?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #19 on: February 28, 2020, 02:25:21 PM »
Quote from: cuddlebuns on February 28, 2020, 02:19:41 PM
If the primary has the 50%+1 rule, and the primary is also on Super Tuesday, doesn't Campa-Najjar have a chance based entirely on turnout?

It doesn't have that rule. In California, the top two from the primary advance to the general no matter what. Campa-Najjar is likely to come first by being the only serious Dem and consolidating the Dem vote, but without Hunter his chances in the general are pretty low.
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