Can Chris Smith be defeated in 2020?

[The Arizonan]

Chris Smith is a long-time incumbent congressman from New Jersey and is the only Republican to represent New Jersey in Congress. Can he be defeated in 2020 without a bizarre series of bad events that drag down the Republican brand or a scandal?

[OBD]

No. He didn't go down in 2018 and his district isn't getting any bluer.

[lfromnj]

Lol no.

[Pollster]

Smith and Pallone's districts are prominent examples of districts drawn to protect incumbents. Pallone's district absurdly stretches south down the shoreline specifically to include his hometown of Long Branch, while avoiding the redder parts of Monmouth County.

The most prominent Democrats in Smith's district are Eric Houghtaling and Joann Downey, who are the assembly members for the 11th district (Democrat Vin Gopal represents this district in the State Senate, but he lives in the same town as Pallone and is the likely heir to Pallone's district). Their joint victory in 2015 was considered an upset, they were fine in 2017 but had a close call in 2019.

Either could make the race single digits, but Smith is entrenched and the seat is Trump 56-41, so likely just outside of the realm of flipping as Dems didn't win a single district Trump won more than 55% in outside of Peterson's in the 2018 general.

[Tekken_Guy]

The seat has a small chance of flipping as an open seat. But it isn’t flipping with Smith on the ballot, and he said he’s running again in 2020.

[Xing]

No, this district is too strongly Republican-leaning.

[The Arizonan]

No, this district is too strongly Republican-leaning.

It's only R+8.

[ElectionsGuy]

Can I start threads asking if Chellie Pingree or Jim Cooper can be defeated in 2020 because their districts are only D+7/8, or will I be laughed out of the room before I even get an answer?

[The Arizonan]

Can I start threads asking if Chellie Pingree or Jim Cooper can be defeated in 2020 because their districts are only D+7/8, or will I be laughed out of the room before I even get an answer?

Steve Russell, who represented an R+10 district in Oklahoma, got defeated by Kendra Horn. There should be no shame in asking these kinds of questions.

[The Arizonan]

Can I start threads asking if Chellie Pingree or Jim Cooper can be defeated in 2020 because their districts are only D+7/8, or will I be laughed out of the room before I even get an answer?

Steve Russell, who represented an R+10 district in Oklahoma, got defeated by Kendra Horn. There should be no shame in asking these kinds of questions.

Ever heard of a fluke?

And the same thing can't happen to Chris Smith? Especially in a blue state?

[Frenchrepublican]

Can I start threads asking if Chellie Pingree or Jim Cooper can be defeated in 2020 because their districts are only D+7/8, or will I be laughed out of the room before I even get an answer?

Steve Russell, who represented an R+10 district in Oklahoma, got defeated by Kendra Horn. There should be no shame in asking these kinds of questions.

Ever heard of a fluke?

And the same thing can't happen to Chris Smith? Especially in a blue state?

Not with Trump carrying this district by double digits ; and as for Kendra Horn, she has clearly a though fight ahead of her.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Can I start threads asking if Chellie Pingree or Jim Cooper can be defeated in 2020 because their districts are only D+7/8, or will I be laughed out of the room before I even get an answer?

Steve Russell, who represented an R+10 district in Oklahoma, got defeated by Kendra Horn. There should be no shame in asking these kinds of questions.

That district in its current form was going to wind up being Democrat at one point or another. It flipped earlier than expected because everything was aligned for it happen. That does not seem to be the case in NJ.   

[ElectionsGuy]

Can I start threads asking if Chellie Pingree or Jim Cooper can be defeated in 2020 because their districts are only D+7/8, or will I be laughed out of the room before I even get an answer?

Steve Russell, who represented an R+10 district in Oklahoma, got defeated by Kendra Horn. There should be no shame in asking these kinds of questions.

I would agree, but there is a double standard here because those threads don't exist but many of these do.

[BP🌹]

Can I start threads asking if Chellie Pingree or Jim Cooper can be defeated in 2020 because their districts are only D+7/8, or will I be laughed out of the room before I even get an answer?

Steve Russell, who represented an R+10 district in Oklahoma, got defeated by Kendra Horn. There should be no shame in asking these kinds of questions.

I would agree, but there is a double standard here because those threads don't exist but many of these do.

Some of us believe that 2020 will be a Democratic-leaning year - not a neutral year - and the "double standard" you describe is consistent with that.

[Calthrina950]

Chris Smith is a long-time incumbent congressman from New Jersey and is the only Republican to represent New Jersey in Congress. Can he be defeated in 2020 without a bizarre series of bad events that drag down the Republican brand or a scandal?

As has been said on here, Smith is safe in 2020. If he couldn't be toppled in 2018, then he won't lose anytime soon. Smith has always enjoyed a high level of crossover appeal, even though because of the wave environment and polarization, that appeal went down considerably in 2018, as he only matched Trump's 2016 performance in the district. Nevertheless, even while Lance and MacArthur were going down to defeat, and the districts of Frelinghuysen and LoBiondo flipped, he still won by double digits.

And given the ongoing Republican trends in South Jersey, I suspect LoBiondo's old seat will flip back to the Republicans in due course, possibly as soon as next year, and certainly in 2022 if it is a Democratic midterm, and Trump is out of office.

[DINGO Joe]

If the Ds recruit the perfect candidate for that district, then yes.  That candidate?  bronz

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Smith is beyond entrenched. He's the dean of the New Jersey Congressional delegation, three deaths or retirements away from being Dean of the House, and when my family lived in the 2003-2013 incarnation of his district even my strongly pro-choice seventies-feminist mother approved of him.

[Pericles]

Not all Republican incumbents who won in 2018 are safe in 2020, but Smith is.

[Gracile]

In addition to the district's heavily Republican lean, Smith's willingness to break the party line has helped him stay entrenched. Although he is extremely conservative on social issues, he has taken stances that go against party orthodoxy on issues that may be beneficial to his constituents. It wouldn't surprise me if Smith became a lifer.

[Orser67]

In addition to the district's heavily Republican lean, Smith's willingness to break the party line has helped him stay entrenched. Although he is extremely conservative on social issues, he has taken stances that go against party orthodoxy on issues that may be beneficial to his constituents. It wouldn't surprise me if Smith became a lifer.

Notably, he was one of (I think) just four Republicans to vote against both the Trump Tax Cut and the 2017 GOP healthcare bill. The other three (Leonard Lance, Frank LoBiondo, and Dan Donovan) no longer serve in Congress but Smith, unlike those three, was never considered to be in danger of losing re-election.

There are some R+8ish seats that could plausibly flip (IN-5, MO-2, PA-10, GA-7, a bunch of seats in TX) but Smith's seat isn't one of them.

[ElectionsGuy]

Can I start threads asking if Chellie Pingree or Jim Cooper can be defeated in 2020 because their districts are only D+7/8, or will I be laughed out of the room before I even get an answer?

Steve Russell, who represented an R+10 district in Oklahoma, got defeated by Kendra Horn. There should be no shame in asking these kinds of questions.

I would agree, but there is a double standard here because those threads don't exist but many of these do.

Some of us believe that 2020 will be a Democratic-leaning year - not a neutral year - and the "double standard" you describe is consistent with that.

Slight problem with that, PVI already measures relative partisanship, not raw winning margins.