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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  PA-Muhlenberg: Biden +9, Sanders +5, Warren +5
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Author Topic: PA-Muhlenberg: Biden +9, Sanders +5, Warren +5  (Read 1213 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: November 14, 2019, 08:39:23 am »

Pennsylvania: Morning Call/Muhlenberg College, Nov. 4-9, 410 RV

Biden 52, Trump 43
Sanders 50, Trump 45
Warren 50, Trump 45
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2019, 08:45:43 am »

Wonderful poll!

Not sure what the reputation on this pollster is though
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Cinemark
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« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2019, 08:51:57 am »
« Edited: November 14, 2019, 08:55:35 am by #Klobmentum »

Wonderful poll!

Not sure what the reputation on this pollster is though

A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight with a R bias of 0.2%.

Edit: So they are a good pollster.
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Governor R2D2 (Biden/Harris 2020 Edition)
20RP12
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2019, 08:54:58 am »

Nothing for Pete?

Still, this is an encouraging poll, although the sample size is a little small and "registered voters" always makes me nervous.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2019, 09:21:45 am »

Full toplines at https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/academics/polisci/PA_Pres_Nov_2019__Report_%20(1).pdf.

Trump job approval: 40/56

Trump deserves to be re-elected: 42/57

Approve of impeachment inquiry: 51/47

Impeach Trump: Yes 49, No 48
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OneJ
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« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2019, 09:26:54 am »

What makes it even better is that all of the Democratic candidates are hitting 50.
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Annatar
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« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2019, 09:39:32 am »

So Trump is getting 43-45% of the vote in a poll where he's approval is only 40%, who are the people who disapprove of Trump but plan to vote for him I wonder, would be interesting to interview.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2019, 09:47:16 am »

Looks good. I'd rate PA as tilt/lean D for 2020, but Dems need can't take it for granted and must make sure there is high turnout in the Philly area.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2019, 09:54:47 am »

Honestly, everything about this looks believable. Including the job approval.

Oof, and that TERRIBLE 28/66 approval for Trump in the Philly suburbs. It's cataclysmic.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: November 14, 2019, 11:00:43 am »

Nothing for Pete?

Still, this is an encouraging poll, although the sample size is a little small and "registered voters" always makes me nervous.

It's way too early to look at "likely voters".
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: November 14, 2019, 12:18:18 pm »

I'd be curious as to what the geographic defenitions are for this poll. What do they count as Philly suburbs? What do they count as Northeast PA?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: November 14, 2019, 12:25:17 pm »

So Trump is getting 43-45% of the vote in a poll where he's approval is only 40%, who are the people who disapprove of Trump but plan to vote for him I wonder, would be interesting to interview.

W. had 28% approval rating in 2008 but if he were on the ballot I can guarantee you that he would have taken more than 40% of the vote. That's why they call it polarization. 
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Georgia Democrat in 2020
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« Reply #12 on: November 14, 2019, 02:57:43 pm »

Pennsylvania 2020 may become Indiana 2012--and the national party tilt for the state will reassert itself.

I think that Trump et al will recognize this and will focus on Michigan or Wisconsin as the Battle of Berlin.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2019, 03:02:09 pm »

Great numbers, even though RV and a small sample. Biden is likely to win Pennsylvania if nominated.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #14 on: November 14, 2019, 04:12:08 pm »

Pennsylvania 2020 may become Indiana 2012--and the national party tilt for the state will reassert itself.

I think that Trump et al will recognize this and will focus on Michigan or Wisconsin as the Battle of Berlin.


Michigan is much more likely to be Indiana 2012 than Pennsylvania unless Bloomberg is the nominee lol
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2019, 04:15:47 pm »

MI is Cook PVI +2 D, it wont go R
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Beto/Biden/Allred voter 4 Cornyn's NUT maps
IndyRep
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« Reply #16 on: November 14, 2019, 06:13:56 pm »

I donít buy that PA is more winnable for Trump than MI, at least not significantly.

Tilt or Lean D.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: November 14, 2019, 06:29:48 pm »

I agree that PA could be the most likely Trump state to flip. Sure, it's possible it could still vote slightly to the right of MI or WI, but I'd sooner bet on it being the first to flip.
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