J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,892
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« on: January 09, 2006, 05:10:39 AM » |
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I've actually traced this back to late 1970's and called this the "Southwest Swing." It tends to be socially conservative Democrats tending to vote for socially moderate to conservative Republicans.
A Republican perceived as a conservative will defeat a liberal Democrat in this area. For example, in 1992, Spector actually carried the region of every county bordering Allegheny and Washington Counties (inclusive), by just under 1,000 votes; he lost his home region badly. In 1986, he was 10-15 points ahead of William Scranton, III, who was perceived as an ex-hippie. Thornburgh in 1982 (possibly 1978 as well), Ridge in 1994, and Fisher in 2002 all saw a similar effect.
This effect has offset by the "Southeast Slump," which does just the opposite. As late as 1986, Scranton actually carried the southeast (all counties bordering a county bordering that boarders Delaware or Philadelphia Counties). GHW Bush might have 1988. Singel actually carried this region against Ridge in 1994.
In other words the states right is moving left, while the left is moving right.
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