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Author Topic: Western PA  (Read 1342 times)
nclib
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« on: January 08, 2006, 11:44:20 PM »

According to the swing maps, every county in this area trended to the GOP in 2004. I was expecting the Heinz name to help Kerry out over here.

Reasons why?
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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2006, 11:45:50 PM »

Social issues, I'd imagine, as in most working-class Democratic areas.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2006, 11:58:22 PM »

According to the swing maps, every county in this area trended to the GOP in 2004. I was expecting the Heinz name to help Kerry out over here.

Reasons why?

I've already run through this all in detail, so forgive me if I don't give a super thorough break down.

The primary reason is not social issues, per se.  Rather, what I call "New Deal Dye-off" is the primary cause.  In short, those here who felt so wedded to the Democrats because of economic issues are either dying off, or the Dems have failed to convince them that they still care about their issues.  The younger generations, here, are far more willing to vote GOP than their parents or grandparents.

Also, the economy around the Pittsburgh has changed quite a bit.  Instead of being heavy industry based, it is now mostly based on tech industries.  Most young people in the Pittsburgh area have never even seen a functioning steel mill.  The atmospherein Western PA is more professional than it once was, but there is still a strong working class undertone.  This seems to combine to create a GOP trend.
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J. J.
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« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2006, 05:10:39 AM »

I've actually traced this back to late 1970's and called this the "Southwest Swing."  It tends to be socially conservative Democrats tending to vote for socially moderate to conservative Republicans. 

A Republican perceived as a conservative will defeat a liberal Democrat in this area.  For example, in 1992, Spector actually carried the region of every county bordering Allegheny and Washington Counties (inclusive), by just under 1,000 votes; he lost his home region badly.  In 1986, he was 10-15 points ahead of William Scranton, III, who was perceived as an ex-hippie.  Thornburgh in 1982 (possibly 1978 as well), Ridge in 1994, and Fisher in 2002 all saw a similar effect.

This effect has offset by the "Southeast Slump," which does just the opposite.   As late as 1986, Scranton actually carried the southeast (all counties bordering a county bordering that boarders Delaware or Philadelphia Counties).  GHW Bush might have 1988.   Singel actually carried this region against Ridge in 1994.

In other words the states right is moving left, while the left is moving right.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2006, 02:41:10 PM »

I've actually traced this back to late 1970's and called this the "Southwest Swing."  It tends to be socially conservative Democrats tending to vote for socially moderate to conservative Republicans. 

A Republican perceived as a conservative will defeat a liberal Democrat in this area.  For example, in 1992, Spector actually carried the region of every county bordering Allegheny and Washington Counties (inclusive), by just under 1,000 votes; he lost his home region badly.  In 1986, he was 10-15 points ahead of William Scranton, III, who was perceived as an ex-hippie.  Thornburgh in 1982 (possibly 1978 as well), Ridge in 1994, and Fisher in 2002 all saw a similar effect.

This effect has offset by the "Southeast Slump," which does just the opposite.   As late as 1986, Scranton actually carried the southeast (all counties bordering a county bordering that boarders Delaware or Philadelphia Counties).  GHW Bush might have 1988.   Singel actually carried this region against Ridge in 1994.

In other words the states right is moving left, while the left is moving right.

Well put.  The trend is overall static statewide with the east/southeast trending Democratic and the west trending GOP.  Actually Allegheny IIRC is pretty static whereas the surrounding counties are trending heavily GOP.  Philadelphia and to my dismay Bucks are pretty static, even micro-inching GOP.  Difference is Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester are flying left and keeping the Dems alive here.  My guess with Philly and Bucks is you have a similar phenomenon you have out west in lower Bucks county and Northeast Philadelphia being you have a lot of well-off union members who are socially conservative, but also pissed at the primarily African American Democratic run city government.  I can sense a very slight "New Deal Die-off" as supersoulty called it here, but the extent of it is only seen in certain pockets of NE Philly and lower Bucks, and nowhere near what it is out west.  One must also note the senior citizen population is pretty high in these areas.   
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