Fun with Gerrymandering Arkansas

[RBH]

I went here and I screenshotted the House Map for Arkansas. Then I split the 100 districts into four Congressional districts with 25 house districts, but since I am gerrymandering, I decided to make things more interesting.



All info came from here (well, I put that info on a spreadsheet in order to make the demographics).

District population:

CD1 (Green) - 659328
CD2 (Gray) - 672301
CD3 (Blue) - 676276
CD4 (Yellow) - 665045

African American population:
CD1 - 46%
CD2 - 11%
CD3 - 3%
CD4 - 3%

The current African-American populations in the four current districts:
CD1 - 17%
CD2 - 19%
CD3 - 2%
CD4 - 24%

And here's the map of the current Arkansas House districts.

And the Arkansas House Districts in each CD-

CD1: 1-9, 11-13, 15-17, 33-36, 39, 51-55
CD2: 10, 14, 18-19, 24-29, 31-32, 37-38, 40-44, 48-49, 56-58, 77
CD3: 30, 45-47, 50, 59-61, 68-76, 78-82, 84, 86, 90
CD4: 20-23, 62-67, 83, 85, 87-89, 91-100

And the partisan split of the 25 districts in each CD (Arkansas has 72 Democrats and 28 Republicans in their state house)

CD1: 25 Democrats
CD2: 20 Democrats, 5 Republicans
CD3: 20 Democrats, 5 Republicans
CD4: 18 Republicans, 7 Democrats

The four residences of the four Arkansas Congressmen are Gillett (Berry), Little Rock (Snyder), Rogers (Boozman), and Prescott (Ross).

Berry is in CD1
Snyder is probably in CD1, although Little Rock is split on the map.
Boozman and Ross' hometowns are both in CD4

Although one idea I had put HD20 in the 1st, which would have put Berry, Snyder, and Ross in the same district.

Any thoughts on the quality of the Gerrymander?

[memphis]

Your gerrymander would probably change Arkansas from a 3-1 Dem advantage to an even split. I see the Dems winning the green and the gray, and the Republicans winning the blue and the yellow.

[muon2]

The quality of the gerrymander would depend on the goal of the gerrymander. As memphis points out it possibly changes the partisan balance. As an attempt to really contort districts to favor aparticular group it has a ways to go to match some of the districts in IL, FL and the old GA and TX districts.

[RBH]

Actually, this map would probably give the Republicans a 3 to 1 edge in Arkansas (as the second and third districts would both be very Republican-friendly). The first district would be solidly for the Democrats though.

[memphis]

Actually, this map would probably give the Republicans a 3 to 1 edge in Arkansas (as the second and third districts would both be very Republican-friendly). The first district would be solidly for the Democrats though.

I'm not so sure. They're Republican friendly at the presidential level, but only the NW corner of Arkansas votes Republican at the House level. Check out the county data for the House races at www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004.

[RBH]

Ok, I corrected the map (as I didn't have district 77 in the spreadsheet and I had to move another district, plus I had to correct another error)

[minionofmidas]

Funny. Yeah, my first thought when I saw this map was "someone seems to have been trying to create a Black majority district."

[jimrtex]

Funny. Yeah, my first thought when I saw this map was "someone seems to have been trying to create a Black majority district."

Probably could be done:

Identify precincts with highest black percentage of population that have a total population equivalent to 25% of state population.  Then either ignore contiguity, or include threads to link the areas.

The same procedure could be used in other states.  Texas might have a statewide Asian district, 4 Black districts, 10 Hispanic districts, and 17 Anglo districts.

[minionofmidas]

Given just how close he came, I'm sure it could be done. Some fiddling in Little Rock alone will no doubt cover over half the distance.

[RBH]

I was hurt slightly because I had to include a pretty white district in order to connect East and Southeast Arkansas with Little Rock.

Now, in reality, the district would just follow the path of a major highway or something similar.