LA-Cygnal: JBE 50, Rispone 48

[Adam Griffin]

Would anybody like some fresh herding?

[Adam Griffin]

A 9-point gender gap with females comprising 56% of voters?

I'm fully aware of how Deep South gender ratios are skewed by large black (female) voting populations, but that 56% female figure in an off-year election seems optimistic. GA - with similar black population - had a 56% female electorate in 2018 with Abrams churning black/female turnout to the max.

Likewise, obviously JBE wouldn't likely be competitive if the gender gap was immense (as it's probably one of the best indicators of polarization outside of race), but that seems ridiculously small post-2016.

I can see either one of these being true, but both? I don't know.