Liberal or Democratic?

[MaC]

Some states seem to vote out of ideology, while others party.  Label the "blue states" as Democratic or liberal.  (I'm using both 2000 and 2004 as example, the three states that voted differently will not be in either poll)

Maine
Vermont
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusets
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Washington D.C.
Maryland
Delaware
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Illinois
California
Oregon
Washington
Hawaii

[Gustaf]

Liberal

New York
Maine
Vermont
Connecticut
Illinois
California
Oregon
Hawaii
Massachusets

Democrat

Rhode Island
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Washington D.C.
Maryland
Delaware
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Washington

A lot aren't that clear-cut though.

[TeePee4Prez]

Maine-  Liberal
Vermont- Liberal
Connecticut- Both
Rhode Island- Democratic
Massachusets- Both
New York- Both
New Jersey- Liberal
Pennsylvania-  Democratic in the West, Northeast and Philadelphia, Liberal in Montgomery, Bucks, and Delaware Counties
Washington D.C.- Democratic
Maryland- Democratic
Delaware- Liberal
Michigan- Democratic
Minnesota- Both
Wisconsin- Both
Illinois- Democratic
California- Liberal
Oregon- Liberal
Washington- Liberal
Hawaii- Democratic

[bgwah]

Maine - Liberal
Vermont - Liberal
Connecticut - Liberal
Rhode Island - Liberal
Massachusets - Both
New York - Liberal
New Jersey - Liberal
Pennsylvania - Democratic
Washington D.C. - Both
Maryland - Democratic
Delaware - Democratic
Michigan - Democratic
Minnesota - Democratic
Wisconsin - Democratic
Illinois - Both
California - Liberal
Oregon - Both
Washington - Both
Hawaii - Both

[12th Doctor]

Maine - Liberal
Vermont - Liberal
Connecticut - Liberal
Rhode Island - Democratic
Massachusets - Liberal
New York - Liberal
New Jersey - Liberal
Pennsylvania - Democratic (if it weren't for ancestral Dems in the west this state would be more Republican than Ohio)
Washington D.C. - Both
Maryland - Liberal
Delaware - Liberal
Michigan - Democratic
Minnesota - Democratic (not for long, though)
Wisconsin - Neither, but if I had to go with one, it would be Liberal
Illinois - Liberal
California - Both
Oregon - Again, neither, really, but if I had to go with one, it would be Liberal
Washington - Liberal
Hawaii - Democratic

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania - Democratic (if it weren't for ancestral Dems in the west this state would be more Republican than Ohio)

From what I'm hearing, we're holding our own out west.  Granted, I think Fayette, Greene, and Beaver will eventually drop, but will be made up for by Chester and Monroe in the east.

[Alcon]

Pennsylvania - Democratic (if it weren't for ancestral Dems in the west this state would be more Republican than Ohio)

From what I'm hearing, we're holding our own out west.  Granted, I think Fayette, Greene, and Beaver will eventually drop, but will be made up for by Chester and Monroe in the east.

Not Beaver!  Boo.

[12th Doctor]

Pennsylvania - Democratic (if it weren't for ancestral Dems in the west this state would be more Republican than Ohio)

From what I'm hearing, we're holding our own out west.  Granted, I think Fayette, Greene, and Beaver will eventually drop, but will be made up for by Chester and Monroe in the east.

You guys are losing support in almost every county in the West, including Alleghany

[12th Doctor]

And the only reason Centre County swung was because a whole bunch of asshole college students from Penn State organized (with the help of faculty) to chnge their voter registrations and legal adresses from their safe home states to Pennsylvania.  And if what I hear is right, the same thing happened around Pittsburgh as well.  I know it happened here in Erie.

I'm not saying that Republicans didn't do this, but as a person who consorts with the college Republicans, I know for a fact that there was no organized effort and since liberals vastly out number conservatives in most colleges, we all know who came out on top.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania - Democratic (if it weren't for ancestral Dems in the west this state would be more Republican than Ohio)

From what I'm hearing, we're holding our own out west.  Granted, I think Fayette, Greene, and Beaver will eventually drop, but will be made up for by Chester and Monroe in the east.

You guys are losing support in almost every county in the West, including Alleghany

Trend:


Not so buddy!  Take a look east.  Your gains out there are futile and the Trends are based on the national level.  We would not be "more Republican than Ohio".

[bullmoose88]

I am hesitant to say there is a democratic trend in Chester County (I think someone mentioned that there was a 1.3% swing to the dems this past election)...the map indicates a trend in chester...thats all well and good (but it also indicates a similar trend in lancaster county...and if you think that county will ever go dem...you're nuts.)

Chester is a growing county...and it seems that both the numbers of Rs and Ds are growing, the Ds at a faster rate than the Rs...that said, unless the Ds really out pace the Rs...I could be in a coffin sooner than the county goes democrat (if the trend actually holds up).

The problems as I see them

For the Republicans...
Big gains out west...problem is, where the GOP is gaining are in counties that are slow (or even negative growers)...which probably means that while  the GOP has converted some dems, many dems have either died, or moved out (to where, I don't know)...it doesn't seem like theres a growing trend of Republicans...just negative democratic growth.

For the Dems...
Some Gains in the East, particularly in the Southeast...but only in presidential elections...no real translation to the state level (state house, senate, many of the counties) which may indicate that while in presidential elections, southeastern PAers may be voting Democrat, but its because they're voting against Bush and voting against this particular strand of social conservativism rather than voting for Gore/Kerry. You may see this type of voting in the Senate race this fall.

The dems do have some positive points...they're getting stronger in the parts of the state that are the fastest growing...the main question is the type of growth, are they the typical suburban republicans? Philly democrats who are sick of the city? if in the case of the former, then flyers' optimism is not well founded, if the latter, the dems are in decent shape, but must walk the fine line of city/suburban divide.

[TeePee4Prez]

For the Dems...
Some Gains in the East, particularly in the Southeast...but only in presidential elections...no real translation to the state level (state house, senate, many of the counties) which may indicate that while in presidential elections, southeastern PAers may be voting Democrat, but its because they're voting against Bush and voting against this particular strand of social conservativism rather than voting for Gore/Kerry. You may see this type of voting in the Senate race this fall.

The dems do have some positive points...they're getting stronger in the parts of the state that are the fastest growing...the main question is the type of growth, are they the typical suburban republicans? Philly democrats who are sick of the city? if in the case of the former, then flyers' optimism is not well founded, if the latter, the dems are in decent shape, but must walk the fine line of city/suburban divide.

Rethink what you just said.  Montgomery we flipped 2 state House seats (one of them with a sitting incumbent and the other was previously held by the very popular Ellen Bard) and almost got 2 more.  We also came very close to flipping one in Delco.  Plus you have to admit that a few in Bucks and a few more in Montco and Delco will flip upon retirement of the current incumbent.  As for the Philly Dems sick of the city, well I'm one of them and as for national/state poltics, my opinions as are many others, are going nowhere. 

[bullmoose88]

For the Dems...
Some Gains in the East, particularly in the Southeast...but only in presidential elections...no real translation to the state level (state house, senate, many of the counties) which may indicate that while in presidential elections, southeastern PAers may be voting Democrat, but its because they're voting against Bush and voting against this particular strand of social conservativism rather than voting for Gore/Kerry. You may see this type of voting in the Senate race this fall.

The dems do have some positive points...they're getting stronger in the parts of the state that are the fastest growing...the main question is the type of growth, are they the typical suburban republicans? Philly democrats who are sick of the city? if in the case of the former, then flyers' optimism is not well founded, if the latter, the dems are in decent shape, but must walk the fine line of city/suburban divide.

Rethink what you just said.  Montgomery we flipped 2 state House seats (one of them with a sitting incumbent and the other was previously held by the very popular Ellen Bard) and almost got 2 more.  We also came very close to flipping one in Delco.  Plus you have to admit that a few in Bucks and a few more in Montco and Delco will flip upon retirement of the current incumbent.  As for the Philly Dems sick of the city, well I'm one of them and as for national/state poltics, my opinions as are many others, are going nowhere. 

3 house seats? thats it? thats not that many...and I don't know if I could hang my hat upon that (and as for the possible open seat races, we'll see when we get there).

What I am talking about Flyers is that its all well and good to be a suburban democrat...and vote democratic...but they're still suburbanites...and the democrats have been able this far...to not stir up city-suburban tension...I don't know how long that will last...and if it doesn't that could be very very very porblematic.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Maine - liberal
Vermont - liberal
Connecticut - liberal
Rhode Island - liberal
Massachusets - liberal
New York - liberal
New Jersey - liberal
Pennsylvania - democratic
Washington D.C. - very very democratic
Maryland - very democratic
Delaware - liberal, they were supporting the GOP 15 years ago
Michigan - democratic
Minnesota - democratic
Wisconsin - liberal (remember LaFollete?  I think this state is actually pretty liberal)
Illinois - It's really all Chicago, which is both liberal and democratic

California - liberal
Oregon - liberal
Washington - liberal
(it's all the ultra liberal coastal cities in these states)

Hawaii - liberal

[Smash255]

Maine - liberal
Vermont - liberal
Connecticut - liberal
Rhode Island - liberal
Massachusets - liberal
New York - liberal
New Jersey - liberal
Pennsylvania - democratic
Washington D.C. - very very democratic
Maryland - very democratic
Delaware - liberal, they were supporting the GOP 15 years ago
Michigan - democratic
Minnesota - democratic
Wisconsin - liberal (remember LaFollete?  I think this state is actually pretty liberal)
Illinois - It's really all Chicago, which is both liberal and democratic

California - liberal
Oregon - liberal
Washington - liberal
(it's all the ultra liberal coastal cities in these states)

Hawaii - liberal

Pretty much agree here except I would say RI would be both.

PA  would be mostly Democratic, but Philly burbs are liberal

NY mostly liberal, but Buffalo and perhaps Rochester would fall more along the lines of Democratic (though Buffalo especially is VERY economically liberal).  NYC would be both, suburbs would be liberal (though they are howing signs of being both)

[TeePee4Prez]

For the Dems...
Some Gains in the East, particularly in the Southeast...but only in presidential elections...no real translation to the state level (state house, senate, many of the counties) which may indicate that while in presidential elections, southeastern PAers may be voting Democrat, but its because they're voting against Bush and voting against this particular strand of social conservativism rather than voting for Gore/Kerry. You may see this type of voting in the Senate race this fall.

The dems do have some positive points...they're getting stronger in the parts of the state that are the fastest growing...the main question is the type of growth, are they the typical suburban republicans? Philly democrats who are sick of the city? if in the case of the former, then flyers' optimism is not well founded, if the latter, the dems are in decent shape, but must walk the fine line of city/suburban divide.

Rethink what you just said.  Montgomery we flipped 2 state House seats (one of them with a sitting incumbent and the other was previously held by the very popular Ellen Bard) and almost got 2 more.  We also came very close to flipping one in Delco.  Plus you have to admit that a few in Bucks and a few more in Montco and Delco will flip upon retirement of the current incumbent.  As for the Philly Dems sick of the city, well I'm one of them and as for national/state poltics, my opinions as are many others, are going nowhere. 

3 house seats? thats it? thats not that many...and I don't know if I could hang my hat upon that (and as for the possible open seat races, we'll see when we get there).

What I am talking about Flyers is that its all well and good to be a suburban democrat...and vote democratic...but they're still suburbanites...and the democrats have been able this far...to not stir up city-suburban tension...I don't know how long that will last...and if it doesn't that could be very very very porblematic.

hmm, you're right about the city-suburban tension, but whether that will help the GOP is yet to be seen.  In the 1980s there was much more of it plus Reagan which the Dems got all out trounced in SEPA.  Even NE Philly saw 6 Republicans sent to the State House with many Dems being knocked off between 1978-1984.  Difference is national politics are crushing any chance of a GOP comeback in this area save NE Philly because of the city administration.

[bullmoose88]

See the suburban-urban divide was a good GOP issue in the 1980s, one of the reasons why the GOP won Bucks, Montco, Delaware...

[TeePee4Prez]

See the suburban-urban divide was a good GOP issue in the 1980s, one of the reasons why the GOP won Bucks, Montco, Delaware...

The area was also MUCH more conservative then.

[bullmoose88]

Yeah, but the same issues remain and influence voting in the same way...suburbanites fear whats happening in the cities happening to them (more or less)...and to some degree, people associate that (especially before, but still now) with the democratic machines. You can argue whether thats fair or not, but thats how they see it...

For instance..."John Street is ruining Philadelphia. We left Philly because it sucks. Oh John Street's a Democrat...better watch out for those city democrats, don't let them do to X County what they did to Philadelphia"

Back in the 80s that was easy enough...the burbs were republican anyway...but now with the Democrats getting stronger, they're gonna have to walk a fine line..."We're democrats, but we're not like those guys downtown." It seems like a hard line to walk, without ruffling feathers internally that is.

[Gustaf]

Argh, you bloody Pennsylvanians, do you have to turn every thread into a thread about Pennsylvania?

[TeePee4Prez]

Yeah, but the same issues remain and influence voting in the same way...suburbanites fear whats happening in the cities happening to them (more or less)...and to some degree, people associate that (especially before, but still now) with the democratic machines. You can argue whether thats fair or not, but thats how they see it...

For instance..."John Street is ruining Philadelphia. We left Philly because it sucks. Oh John Street's a Democrat...better watch out for those city democrats, don't let them do to X County what they did to Philadelphia"

Back in the 80s that was easy enough...the burbs were republican anyway...but now with the Democrats getting stronger, they're gonna have to walk a fine line..."We're democrats, but we're not like those guys downtown." It seems like a hard line to walk, without ruffling feathers internally that is.

Well, your theory holds SOME weight because Kerry's numbers declined a little bit from Gore's in Northeast Philadelphia because of Street, but at the end of the day Democrats prevailed.  Allyson Schwartz and a few others do a pretty good job of disassociation from the Democratic party downtown.  What really ticked off a lot of people with regards to Section 8 is in the 1980s a lot of the high rise projects were being imploded and the residents of those were getting vouchers into working class residential areas.  This created a lot of animosity, but apparently if you look at election results since 1992, that's mostly water under a bridge and the Dems really don't need to worry too much about it so long your party keeps nominating hard line right wingers. 

[12th Doctor]

Pennsylvania - Democratic (if it weren't for ancestral Dems in the west this state would be more Republican than Ohio)

From what I'm hearing, we're holding our own out west.  Granted, I think Fayette, Greene, and Beaver will eventually drop, but will be made up for by Chester and Monroe in the east.

You guys are losing support in almost every county in the West, including Alleghany

Trend:


Not so buddy!  Take a look east.  Your gains out there are futile and the Trends are based on the national level.  We would not be "more Republican than Ohio".

I already explained that map, but I guess I'm just gonna have to break it down:

Erie County:  Gannon University, Penn State Behrend, Mercyhurst College, Edinboro University

Crawford County:  Allegheny College

Indiana County:  IUP

Clarion County:  University of Clarion

Allegheny County:  DUP, Pitt, Carlo College, Carnegie-Mellon

Butler County:  Slippery Rock

Centre County:  Penn State University

As for all the small counties, Bush probably just maxed out his support there.  The only county I can't explain in this way in Elk County.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I still think that calling those maps "trend" maps was a mistake... national-average-swing or summet is a wee bit too mouthy though... anyways this be the swing map:

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania - Democratic (if it weren't for ancestral Dems in the west this state would be more Republican than Ohio)

From what I'm hearing, we're holding our own out west.  Granted, I think Fayette, Greene, and Beaver will eventually drop, but will be made up for by Chester and Monroe in the east.

You guys are losing support in almost every county in the West, including Alleghany

Trend:


Not so buddy!  Take a look east.  Your gains out there are futile and the Trends are based on the national level.  We would not be "more Republican than Ohio".

I already explained that map, but I guess I'm just gonna have to break it down:

Erie County:  Gannon University, Penn State Behrend, Mercyhurst College, Edinboro University

Crawford County:  Allegheny College

Indiana County:  IUP

Clarion County:  University of Clarion

Allegheny County:  DUP, Pitt, Carlo College, Carnegie-Mellon

Butler County:  Slippery Rock

Centre County:  Penn State University

As for all the small counties, Bush probably just maxed out his support there.  The only county I can't explain in this way in Elk County.

No offense, but you seem to fabricate excuses as to why Pennsylvania is trending GOP.  Compared to the national average, we actually trended Dem albeit very slighly.  You also keep harping on this "New Deal Die-off" in western PA, but now your excuse is college kids.  I'm just pointing out the inconsistencies in your arguments.

[TB]

Maine-liberal
Vermont-liberal
Connecticut-liberal
Rhode Island-both
Massachusets-both
New York-both
New Jersey-democratic
Pennsylvania-democratic
Washington D.C.-both
Maryland-both
Delaware-democratic
Michigan-democratic
Minnesota-the answer used be liberal, but now I'm not so sure. I say democratic
Wisconsin-divided state, same as Minnesota
Illinois-democratic
California-liberal
Oregon-liberal
Washington-both