Kentucky EXIT POLL results

[Tender Branson]

Conducted by Centre College:

https://informationknoll.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/ckep-survey-topline-results.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Did Libertarian John Hicks cost Bevin the election?

In this survey, 53.2% of Hicks voters identified as Republican compared to 15.3% who identified as Democrats and 31.5% who identified as Independent. Assuming that the roughly half of Hicks voters who identify as Republican chose to vote for Bevin instead, Bevin would have easily beat Andy Beshear by close to 10,000 votes.

"assuming" is the correct word here ...

The Hicks-voters voted Hicks for a reason: because they did not want to vote for Bevin under any circumstance.

So, the answer to the question is: NO.

[Tender Branson]

I'm surprised that according to the poll only 54% of the voters have a favorable view on Trump. That seems low to me for being KY. And if his favorable numbers aren't better in Kentucky, how bad are they in the rest of the country.

Also this poll clearly shows that the idea that Sanders has some sort of magical connection with WWC voters and can flip KY and WV back to the Dems is bull. Coastal elite and Hillary 2.0, Warren, is more well-liked...

That's probably because A) Trump's favourables are always a bit lower than his job approvals. So, if 60% of KYans approve of his job, 54% favourable rating as a person makes sense. And B) the electorate this year was a bit more D-friendly than usual or as in 2016, assuming many Republicans stayed home. That's also decreasing Trump's numbers among those who voted.