Kentucky EXIT POLL results
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Author Topic: Kentucky EXIT POLL results  (Read 1490 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: November 09, 2019, 08:50:47 AM »

Conducted by Centre College:

https://informationknoll.files.wordpress.com/2019/11/ckep-survey-topline-results.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2019, 08:56:26 AM »

Quote
Did Libertarian John Hicks cost Bevin the election?

In this survey, 53.2% of Hicks voters identified as Republican compared to 15.3% who identified as Democrats and 31.5% who identified as Independent. Assuming that the roughly half of Hicks voters who identify as Republican chose to vote for Bevin instead, Bevin would have easily beat Andy Beshear by close to 10,000 votes.

"assuming" is the correct word here ...

The Hicks-voters voted Hicks for a reason: because they did not want to vote for Bevin under any circumstance.

So, the answer to the question is: NO.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2019, 10:49:33 AM »

I'm surprised that according to the poll only 54% of the voters have a favorable view on Trump. That seems low to me for being KY. And if his favorable numbers aren't better in Kentucky, how bad are they in the rest of the country.

Also this poll clearly shows that the idea that Sanders has some sort of magical connection with WWC voters and can flip KY and WV back to the Dems is bull. Coastal elite and Hillary 2.0, Warren, is more well-liked...
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Holmes
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2019, 10:56:22 AM »

Surprised that Beshear got a bigger share of Republicans than Bevin did Democrats.

But then again Beshear did well in the Cinci burbs and decently in coal country so maybe I shouldn't be.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2019, 11:43:48 AM »

I'm surprised that according to the poll only 54% of the voters have a favorable view on Trump. That seems low to me for being KY. And if his favorable numbers aren't better in Kentucky, how bad are they in the rest of the country.

Also this poll clearly shows that the idea that Sanders has some sort of magical connection with WWC voters and can flip KY and WV back to the Dems is bull. Coastal elite and Hillary 2.0, Warren, is more well-liked...

That's probably because A) Trump's favourables are always a bit lower than his job approvals. So, if 60% of KYans approve of his job, 54% favourable rating as a person makes sense. And B) the electorate this year was a bit more D-friendly than usual or as in 2016, assuming many Republicans stayed home. That's also decreasing Trump's numbers among those who voted.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2019, 05:01:50 PM »


So literally Trump had a +10 approval on election day?
I believe that it justs hows much turnout was for either side and shows that Trump isn't really losing control of his cult.


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TML
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« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2019, 11:19:47 PM »

I'm surprised that the share of Democrats who voted for Bevin was this low. Remember that 1996 exit polls showed 16% of Democrats in KY voted for Bob Dole, who lost the state to Bill Clinton by a fraction of a percent.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2019, 11:24:51 PM »

I'm surprised that the share of Democrats who voted for Bevin was this low. Remember that 1996 exit polls showed 16% of Democrats in KY voted for Bob Dole, who lost the state to Bill Clinton by a fraction of a percent.

I suspect there's way less Demosaurs in 2019 Kentucky than 1996 Kentucky, to be fair.
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morgieb
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« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2019, 02:40:18 AM »

I'm surprised that the share of Democrats who voted for Bevin was this low. Remember that 1996 exit polls showed 16% of Democrats in KY voted for Bob Dole, who lost the state to Bill Clinton by a fraction of a percent.

I suspect there's way less Demosaurs in 2019 Kentucky than 1996 Kentucky, to be fair.
Also I suspect the sort of people that vote in off-year elections would be more likely to keep track of their registration and are unlikely to remain Democrats even though they vote Republican at all levels.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2019, 01:43:49 AM »
« Edited: November 13, 2019, 01:49:11 AM by President Griffin »

In case people want the gist margin-wise:

(the racial figures are obviously off)

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2019, 01:58:54 AM »
« Edited: November 13, 2019, 02:19:44 AM by President Griffin »

Quote
Did Libertarian John Hicks cost Bevin the election?

In this survey, 53.2% of Hicks voters identified as Republican compared to 15.3% who identified as Democrats and 31.5% who identified as Independent. Assuming that the roughly half of Hicks voters who identify as Republican chose to vote for Bevin instead, Bevin would have easily beat Andy Beshear by close to 10,000 votes.

"assuming" is the correct word here ...

The Hicks-voters voted Hicks for a reason: because they did not want to vote for Bevin under any circumstance.

So, the answer to the question is: NO.

It also looks like they didn't bother assigning the Democratic Libertarian voters to Beshear or attempting to calculate how the independents would break. Among those Hicks voters, they also didn't bother assigning the other D/R support percentages (i.e. Bevin winning 81% of GOP and Beshear winning 93% of DEM), instead just giving 100% of GOP-Hicks voters to Bevin (and 0% of DEM-Hicks voters to Beshear).

Calculating that and then assigning independents based on that broader group's lean in the election (58/31 Beshear) would have given Beshear a lead of around 1,500 rather than the Bevin lead of 10,000 votes they claimed.

Bevin ends up winning roughly 55% of Hicks voters in this scenario to Beshear's 42%:

Quote
Beshear     721637 (50.03%)
Bevin         720172 (49.93%)
Unknown   581

Even then, we're talking about small margins among a very volatile group, so their prognostication is completely without merit.
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